By Tony Calvin - 4 June 2026
We lost three at the overnight stage in the Oaks, including the form filly Precise and my potential [100/1] swing Beautify, so we are left with nine.
All of them have chances at their respective odds so it is quite an interesting Classic in that regard, albeit one that clearly lacks a form stand-out.
I stuck up On Message at 66s each-way on Sunday – that was available with 10 firms at the time – and she now ranges from 16s to 28s, so I am obviously happy with the position.
Actually, at 28s, she is now the outsider of the field, as the 33s, 28s and 25s was taken about Sugar Island early on Wednesday.
I may as well re-state the case I made for On Message at 66s on Sunday, though even the 28s wouldn’t particularly interest me now, if truth be told.
Actually, the 28s has just been taken and she is 25s, tops.
She is rated a mere 99 by the BHA handicapper (though we have three in the Derby rated between 80 and 83 – and horses aren’t allowed to run from 15lb out of the handicap over jumps) but we are dealing with a lightly-raced, rapid improver who looks sure to relish 1m4f, on run-style at least, and the Camelot factor gives that stamina assessment/guess some pedigree basis, too, though admittedly that looks a little shaky on paper.
She had a sighter of the track when winning a 1m handicap here on Trials day in late April and, while that success came off a lowly mark of 80, she powered home and the second and third won next time. She is the only filly in here with race experience at the track.
She finished with a real flourish when a closing length third to Inis Mor and Earth Shot (I rate the winner and they think the world of the runner-up) in the Height Of Fashion over 1m2f at Goodwood last time (a slowly-run race, granted) , and I am banking on this 1m4f test bringing about the necessary improvement to see her at least be competitive here.
The handicapper had her improving 14lb from Epsom to Goodwood, and a similar step forward over 2f further is not such fanciful thinking in such a winnable race.
I have a lot of time for the spikily urbane (if you can have that combo…) Ralph Beckett in many areas, not least his training prowess, and of course he already has two Oaks on his dance card.
The market says Beckett has better chances with A La Prochaine and K Sarra in this, but I’m hopeful On Message can be competitive. Even the stride pattern massive give her a fair shout on that metric, though I fully accept she may lack the class to give me the jackpot return.
I’d have preferred quicker ground (the family, who Beckett trained for the owners, prefer that, though sire and dam won on soft), but I don’t think we should go overboard about the rain.
I appreciate the current going stick reading suggests it is slower than the official good to soft, but it shouldn’t be too bad, and it is due to be dry on Thursday from 7pm onwards (around 12mm due before that, mind you).
Cheshire Oaks winner Amelia Earhart looks solid enough at [5/2] – that hood and blinker combination does hint at an attitude but that hasn’t stopped her being clipped into [9/4] overnight into Thursday and now AKBets are top at [23/10] – but I wouldn’t be sure on Musidora scorer’s Legacy Link’s stamina and maybe the same goes for the form horse, Guineas third Venetian Lace.
The [11/2] chance Thundering On is not copper-bottomed on stamina either, but the way she came home hard to win over Navan’s stiff 1m2f gives you plenty of encouragement she will last home.
She is a big runner, and the [11/2] is now just 5s as of Thursday morning.
Thundering On has shortened up a fair bit this week, as has O’Brien’s Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Cameo, and, as I said, Sugar Island was the one for money on Wednesday (though it would not have taken much, so maybe we should get used to saying has been cut instead), into 20s from 33s.
She was 66s on Monday and available at 50s and 40s early on Wednesday morning before the ante-post markets were closed around 8am.
I can fully see that move.
She has 5 1/2 lengths to make up with Amelia Earhart on the Cheshire Oaks form (and 2 1/4 lengths with A La Prochaine) but she wasn’t given a hard race at all there after going from the front on her return, never seriously being shown the whip (well maybe a couple of taps – and it’s a whip, not a Pro Cush, by the way) once headed.
And she was carrying a 5lb penalty at Chester, let us not forget, unlike her four opponents.
The rain is a welcome plus for her, and her 2 3/4 length defeat of Thundering On in a 1m Group 3 at The Curragh on heavy last season, with Cameo well beaten in fourth, obviously reads well enough.
Like I said, they all have their chance in this race and she is one of those, though is there is a nagging doubt perhaps that she could be the pacemaker again, with Beautify out?
Mind you, an O’Brien outsider/front-runner going off in front in an Epsom Classic and not coming back is not unheard of.
BETTING UPDATE (6.30am Friday): A pretty dead and static market (not even 100k matched for this Classic yet on Betfair). A La Prochaine is weak there at 15s+ , and Legacy Link is strong enough at 7/2 from 4s fixed odds. Amelia Earhart is best at 23/10 with AKBets.
It’s hard enough getting a bet on these days, so don’t waste it on a 16-runner 3yo 5f handicap at Epsom…
I am joking obviously but fair play if you have a strong betting fancy in this younger version of the Dash.
This sprint handicap is further complicated as we are obviously dealing with some relatively unexposed 3yos too, very much so in the case of the thrice-raced She’s Got A Brother, favourite in most places at [9/2], and I found it impossible to have a betting viewpoint.
I always look for horses with experience on tricky tracks like Epsom, and there is a short-list of one here on that score – Alfa Duplicate, top-priced at 16s and 14s on the fixed-odds front but available at [20.0] on Betfair to minimum stakes as this race analysis goes live as at 7.52am on Thursday.
She didn’t excel as a [200/1] poke in the Woodcote at this meeting last season but experience is never a wasted exercise and she comes in here on a roll with three victories in her last four starts, including a Beverley success in a decent time on her most recent outing.
However, she has gone up 15lb as a result of those successes, it is questionable whether stall one is ideal for this front-runner – I’d have rather she was drawn 16 on the stands’ rail – and Thursday’s expected rain takes her into unknown territory as regards the ground.
The Beverley win came on officially good to soft ground but Timeform called it good.
I’m happy to sit this one out.
Oh, and look out for an each-way terms changing non-runner.
BETTING UPDATE (6.30am Friday): I couldn’t see one move of any note.
But Naana’s Shadow is now clear favourite, and going one way in the market.
Benefacta is a NR as at 11.27am (bruised foot).
The interesting dynamic about this race is that the pace – or rather the pace that we know about, from very limited evidence – is all drawn high (see pace map below).
Of course, that presents an opportunity for one of the lower-berthed horses to try to crack out in front, not that this has particularly been a draw race in recent seasons.
Hickory Lad, drawn 10 and one of the early speed angles, already has a body of work that makes him a very solid proposition at 6s, but Social Spirit drawn one, probably appeals a touch more at 20s and 18s.
Whether or not she has the gas to go forward from her draw, I am not so sure, but she certainly shaped promisingly when third at Doncaster last month.
Only two horses have come out of that race and both have won, the fourth Everatease and the fifth, El Floridita.
She is a rare Epsom runner for the Easterbys (one from seven here) and I think she could go well. But it is another race that has minimum-stakes written all over it, and probably no-bet.
BETTING UPDATE (6.30am Friday): Once again, nothing doing really. Hickory Lad was 6s in a couple of spots yesterday morning and is now 9/2 – and that could be coming under imminent pressure – and nibbles for Dandyman Dan too into 13/2 (opened up 10s in a place on Wednesday).
We have the tentative eight in this Diomed Stakes so the usual comments apply – each-way punters, beware the non-runner.
Persica heads the betting at [5/2] and it is easy to see why.
Two from two at Epsom, including when beating Ice Max by ¾ length in this race last season, it stands to reason he has been targeted at this race once again.
He will need to have been, as his form since winning this contest last season has been a bit ropey, but he ran okay, under a tender enough ride, in the Earl Of Sefton on his return and I have rarely seen the Richard Hannon stable in better form, strike rate-wise.
But [5/2] is nothing flash in a race of this depth – it’s a close-knit contest on ratings, and I certainly wouldn’t rule out the 106-rated and 22s poke Royal Playwright – and maybe last year’s runner-up Ice Max is a better shout at [11/2].
He has run two very solid races of late and it can rain as much as it wants for him throughout Thursday.
I’ll revisit this race on Friday morning once we know how much has landed – at the moment a lot less than forecast.
BETTING UPDATE (6.30am Friday): Either everyone went to bed at 6pm last night and still hasn’t woken up, or no-one can get on. Royal Playwright 22s into 18s is the only move here ( though Seagulls Eleven has subsequently been strong into 7/2 as at 7.19am). Not even 20k matched on Betfair yet.
If there was ever a horse that was going to be underpriced next time – or at the very least, not missed in the market – it was Sallaal after his run here in late April.
Suffice to say Ray Dawson came in for a fair bit of stick after the horse was given too much to do in finishing a closing length second there, with nearly 5 lengths back to the third (Asmen Warrior, who runs in the 4.40pm after being beaten just a head next time, for which he was raised 4lb), and criticism without abuse looked to be fully warranted.
The handicapper put Sallaal up 5lb for that, so it is not as if he is thrown in here by any means on the bare form, so I can let him win this 17-runner 1m2f handicap all day long at the current odds.
Even that [7/2] may not last.
Of course, ask me the most likely victor and I’d obviously say him – he may be rated 107 already but this is a half-brother to Benbatl and 1,000 Guineas winner Elmalka, by Frankel out of the stable’s dual Group 1 winner Nahrain – but betting isn’t about identifying the winner regardless of price, though plenty would disagree.
If you do, back him!
This could be a tasty handicap too, with the likes of Respond, Hand Of God and the well-weighted Alpha Crucis, second over 1m + at this meeting last season, in here to name but three.
Now, Kevin Philippart De Foy could do with a winner but I thought his Tycoon was fairly enough priced at 12s and 11s, though he is eight points bigger at 20.0 in an exceptionally lightly-traded Betfair market (not even 3k matched yet).
That 12s could lengthen considerably then.
He didn’t hit the heights expected of him when with the Gosdens and he has hardly been ripping it up for De Foy either, but he won his race on the far side at Newmarket last time, when beaten only 3/4 length, and he can race off the same mark here.
I may play him win-only but I’ll wait to see how much rain Epsom gets on Thursday – they have only had 2mm today as at 1.54pm (currently light rain mind you), so I am currently working on the basis of good to soft for Friday, with any rain set to stop by 6pm, with a dry Friday in store.
Cue an afternoon deluge….3.6mm as at 2.50pm now.
BETTING UPDATE (6.30am Friday): Sallaal is out to 4s+ on Betfair and Hand Of God is the strong one in here from 7s to 5s (and that could be coming under pressure very soon).
Hand Of God (7.03am – going) is a NR . Not sure what ground they are objecting to given he has won on good and good to soft (assessments which Timeform agree with).
The aforementioned Asmen Warrior is 4lb well-in here after just getting touched off over 1m at Windsor last week, so I am more than a little surprised to see him available at 10s and 9s, with five places available, for each-way punters.
His third here to Rathgar and Sallaal over 1m2f in late April was obviously a decent effort but his head second to Antipodes over this shorter trip at Windsor was clearly an improved effort (that was the first time he raced over a mile since his debut and it clearly suited).
The winner was a well-backed and lightly-raced Varian horse and Asmen Warrior pulled 4 1/2 lengths of the third horse, who went into that race on the back of a win (as did the winner).
The first-time blinkers replacing the visor here is perhaps a little surprising (though he won in first-time cheekpieces and one of his siblings won in first-time blinkers) but presumably James Owen has worked him in them at home and is happy with what he saw.
And with what his horse didn’t/couldn’t.
I imagine he is available at 10s because of Thursday’s forecast afternoon rain – his best form has come on decent ground – but it currently looks as though it won’t be anywhere near as bad as some feared, and I can see him shortening a fair bit if Epsom miss most of it.
It is currently raining again at Epsom as I write this (3.6mm now as at 2.50pm).
You may want to take a chance and take that 10s or 9s, which looks plenty big enough given his premier form claims. That will only go one way if we have indeed seen the last of the rain, so maybe best to hit the betting green light now.
I imagine he will be gunned out in front again from stall five.
I’ll definitely be doing a Friday morning betting and copy update – and assessments of the two non-ITV races too. maybe.
BETTING UPDATE (6.30am Friday): Asmen Warrior into a general 6s and 11/2 from 10s and 9s, with 13/2 available in a spot. Any one of four (Celeborn, Stem and Man Of La Mancha) could go off favourite here.
Early days all round.
In the 5.15pm, Stellar Sunrise is very strong/tight at the general 9/4 (Awaken is a NR) and in the 5.50pm Dance In The Storm is strong enough at 5/2, with Rhoscolyn 9/2 but very weak on the exchange. It is 11s+ bar those two on a very illiquid Betfair market.
The last two markets have been up since just after midday on Wednesday, and those two non-ITV races have done £4,111 and £7,321 on the exchange (half for the amount backed) as at 6.30am.
Sobering stuff.
Asmen Warrior each-way at 10s or 9s (and 8s at minimum) in 4.40pm – get best place terms your accounts allow
On Message at 66/1 each way ante-post
Soil Moisture 50% at 9.45am Friday
5 Furlong Course
Derby Course
Friday update: 33mm rain Tuesday, Wednesday – 3mm rain. Thursday – 0.6mm rain overnight into Thursday. 3.8mm in showers during the day. Dry since 3pm. Friday – Dry overnight. Mainly dry with sunny spells, 1mm max possible. Saturday – rain/showers from midnight and into the morning, heaviest around 8-9am – up to 6mm possible. Brighter afternoon. Temperatures will be in the late teens throughout.
Watering: 20mm in total applied Monday-Friday of last week. 5mm to entire course Saturday. No watering Sunday and in light of weather forecast for Monday-Tuesday no watering planned for Monday. Reviewed daily.
Latest yr.no (5.42am Friday): Dry Friday, sunny spells and 17 degrees; 6.6mm Saturday (7am to 5pm) and 15 degrees
4.40pm: Triple Double A, Port Road
James Tate cheekpieces; Great David, 3.15pm; 6-44 (since 2016)
George Boughey cheekpieces; Celeborn, 4.40pm; 15-114 (2020)
James Owen blinkers; Asmen Warrior 4.40pm; 1-24 (2024)
Hamad Al Jehani cheekpieces; Postmodern, 5.10pm; 1-6 (2024)
George Boughey hood: Awaken, 5.15pm; 9-34 (2020)
Hugo Palmer cheekpieces; Sunny Smile, 5.50pm; 15-144 (2016)
1.30pm Epsom: Rosie Frith (drawn 7), She’s Got A Brother (15), Naana’s Shadow (8), One And Gone (11), Hanney Girl (3), Alfa Duplicate (1), Artista (2)
2.05pm Epsom (limited evidence): Alpe D’Huez (12), Hickory Lad (10), Time And Effort (9) – Benefacta is a NR
2.40pm Epsom: Royal Playwright (7), Seagulls Eleven (8), Boiling Point (4), Qirat (2)
3.15pm Epsom: Respond (15), Have Secret (7), Liberty Lane (1), Bolster (9), Great David (13) – Hand Of God is a NR
4pm Epsom: Cameo (9), Legacy Link (1), On Message (7), Sugar Island (3), Venetian Lace (8)
4.40pm Epsom: Mister Winston (8), Mr Swivell (7), Asmen Warrior (5), Stem? (14), Jimmy Speaking (16)
Good: Ivan Furtado., Karl Burke, George Boughey, David Evans, Richard Hannon (never seen his strike-rate so high), John and Thady Gosden, Harry Charlton, Hamad Al Jehani (small sample but very good), Aidan O’Brien, Ed Walker, John Butler, Charles Hills
Fair: Tim Easterby, Eve Johnson Houghton, Michael and David Easterby, Richard Hughes, Ollie Sangster, Ian Williams, Patrick Morris, Adrian Keatley, Charlie Clover, Philip Makin, Hugo Palmer (good/fair), Andrew Balding, Ralph Beckett, Ed Dunlop, David O’Meara, James Owen, Richard and Peter Fahey, Roger Varian, James Tate, Tom Dascombe, Joseph O’Brien, Charlie Johnston, Harry Eustace (fair/good), Chris Dwyer, Michael Bell (double on Wednesday), Archie Watson
Moderate: Dylan Cunha, Brian Ellison, Gemma Tutty, Katie Scott, Lemos De Souza, Kaine and Wood, Gary and Josh Moore, Kevin Philippart De Foy, Jack Channon
Dont know: Patrick Magee
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