By Tony Calvin - 4 June 2026
The first thing to say is that we are due light rain throughout the day on Saturday from 7am onwards, maybe 6mm+.
Of course, this week has told us we can get a heap more than forecast (Tuesday) or a lot less (Thursday), but it is going to be wet, either way
It shouldn’t be any worse than good to soft though – however, Friday’s evidence so far suggests it could actually be soft in reality if they get another 6mm – which means all is set fair for [9/4] Benvenuto Cellini to take this race by the scruff of the neck.
To be perfectly honest with you, this is a pretty underwhelming Derby (going into it, anyway) and not one that has caught my betting imagination.
I think the favourite probably isn’t a bad price at all if you can get the [9/4], as he showed a bit of stardust at Chester that all of his rivals are currently missing.
The handicapper would have you think different though.
He gave Item a mark of 117 after his 2 3/4 length defeat of Action in the Dante, and that is surely the maximum you could have allotted to the unbeaten colt. He clearly could be a big factor here but I am not sold on him at the general 4s – indeed, I’d rather back Action each-way at 20s with the cheekpieces on and presumably under an attacking ride, if that is possible from trap 11.
The problem I have in trying to get the favourite beaten is that there isn’t a formline you can really hang your hat on against him.
Who will come out best of the Leopardstown 1-2 of James J Braddock and Pierre Bonnard, I don’t know – I may have to have a good bet on the former as part-owner Kevin Blake will be insufferable for the rest of his life if he wins, as he should be – and the same comments apply to the Newbury 1-2 of Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance.
Very small margins were the order of the day in those trials.
I can see the case for 16s chance Ancient Egypt but unfortunately I kept on coming back the favourite.
Will I back him, though?
No.
Will I back anything?
Action at 20s each-way is the most likely lad.
And I have just backed him.
That York run was a big step forward from a moody-ish return at Sandown, his excellent 2yo form gives him definite place claims here (he was rated 115 after his Group 1 Doncaster second to Hawk Mountain, with Benvenuto Cellini the best part of 3 lengths away in the heavy ground, so he handles loads of dig) and this Frankel half-brother to last year’s winner Lambourn has every chance of staying on pedigree.
Yes, at 20s each-way (available in three places as this goes live – one of those is offering four places), he will do for me to small stakes.
Let’s hope the first-time cheekpieces work as well for him as they did for big bro Lambourn in the Huxley Stakes.
Action each-way at 20s – get the best place terms you can (20s is available in three places as this goes live – one of those is offering four places) – 18s is fine (AKBets)
With the ante-post favourite Lake Forest a no-show, Never So Brave is a best-priced [5/4] for this 7f Group 3 contest, and I don’t imagine anyone would have too much issue with that assessment.
He is unpenalised for his Group 1 City Of York defeat of Lake Forest last season – he misses a 7lb penalty here by nine days – and you can reasonably expect him to have needed his reappearance in a very strong bet365 Mile on his return at Sandown.
But he didn’t run too well all the same and I personally wouldn’t be going overboard about his claims at the current odds, especially on the possible ground, and Alcantor is only 3lb shy of him on official ratings, and a much more palatable price at 5s.
Aunties and uncles and all that, but if you knew all eight would stand their ground, you’d be pretty keen on him each-way at that price.
His jockey may have to ride him with a bit more restraint here, as there are three pace rivals for this usual front-runner to contend with – if he can get an uncontested lead, so much the better – but on all known evidence he is the chief rival to the favourite, for all the likes of Ten Bob Tony, Poet Master and Witness Stand all have place claims at their best.
Alcantor was only beaten a length in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin last season and he blew the cobwebs away with a fair enough return from the front at Leopardstown last month.
With three Group 3 successes to his name, this is obviously his winning grade, and the forecast rain is an obvious plus for a horse that handles heavy with aplomb.
I don’t normally risk an each-way bet in eight-runner races over 24 hours out, but I have done just that. The 5s was too good to pass up.
It wouldn’t be ideal but I’m happy enough to take my medicine and be left with 1/4 the odds 1,2 if there is a NR.
Or should that be when…
The 5s is available with four firms as this goes live at 10.24am on Friday, and he is the bet of a very quiet punting day for me.
Now only seven in here after Princess Child has come out at the start. Never in doubt for each-way punters…
Each-way punters at least have a non-runner to play with here – they needed it as Arisaig is a NR as at 10.36am (going) – with nine confirmations for this 1m+ fillies and mares’ Group 3, but it looks a tricky old race to me.
Shes Perfect and Sparks Fly are just about the form horses in here – clearly the more rain that falls for the latter, the better – but I think the market has them pretty well covered at 3s and a general [7/2] respectively.
I won’t be having a bet here but Pacific Mission at [11/2] looks on the big side to me.
The fact that she gets a whopping 12lb from everything in here as the sole 3yo (and 15lb from the penalised Sparks Fly) immediately catches the eye , and she clearly has a big form chance on her seconds in the May Hill and at the Breeders’ Cup.
The problem is that her return at York was very disappointing.
In short , I wouldn’t be in a rush to rule out any of the nine in here – it will all land for Arisaig one day – so I’ll sit this one out.
The forecast rain is a massive plus for Sparks Fly, as I said.
You won’t get many better races than this for the rest of the season, so let’s hope they all go.
Going down the card, first up, we have a 7-length Group 1 winner in Bay City Roller.
Then the star attraction Calandagan, going for his sixth consecutive Group 1 success after being chinned 1/2 length by Jan Brueghel in this race last season.
Convergent is up next up. A short-head second in the German Derby, he looked a big up-and-comer when winning on his return at Newbury when very weak in the market.
Illinois may not have won a Group 1 either, but he was only beaten a neck by Jan Brueghel in the 2024 Leger and has finished runner-up four times in the highest grade.
Jan Brueghel is number five. We have covered him above.
And completing the field is last year’s Derby winner Lambourn.
Beat that.
Calandagan is even money (and a general 10/11) and I am not arguing with that after what he has done since being beaten in this race last year. Those who questioned his attitude that day have been made to eat their words, with his Royal Ascot defeat of Ombudsman something else.
He did remarkably well to reel in West Wind Blows in the Sheema Classic on his return and , if pushed, I’d probably be more a backer than a layer at evens.
Even against this opposition.
But I won’t be betting – that forecast rain may be worrying connections, and his supporters.
I won’t spend too much time on the 20-runner Dash (please do check out the balloted-out horses below and get your money back on those).
However, I’d have Lexington Blitz as my favourite and the [13/2] about him looks okay, I suppose.
He won off a career-high mark at Goodwood last time and went up 9lb for it but, boy, did he bolt up and he looks a 4yo sprinter who could ease into Pattern company before too long.
He has course form too, finishing a length second in the 3yo Dash here last season, and he should be going close here if there are no excuses from his midfield draw in 10.
His 19 rivals may have something to say about that, though.
Be The Standard is a NR.
There is a ton of pace in this 1m2f handicap.
That doesn’t make winner-finding any easier, it has to be said, and this hugely competitive race pretty much stumped me.
I was drawn most to Valmont’s Hell Yeah He Did as I think he is well-handicapped off a mark of 85 on his Nottingham defeat of Masked Warrior in that Golden Horn maiden – and some of his defeats bear close inspection, too – and the step back up to 1m2f will suit, as will dig in the ground.
He has been gelded since the Nottingham win , to presumably make him more tractable to train, but I must say I was hoping for bigger than [11/2] in a race of this depth (though he is as short as 4s).
I’ll sleep on this race and come back to it tomorrow.
Good luck.
Alcantor at 5/1 each way in 1.30pm
Soil Moisture 51% at 9am Saturday
5 Furlong Course
Derby Course
Saturday morning update: 33mm rain Tuesday, Wednesday – 3mm rain. Thursday – 4.4mm rain Friday – Dry Saturday – 0.4mm rain to 7am. Further patchy rain and possible heavier showers likely through the day. Windy. 16/17 degrees.
Watering: 20mm in total applied Monday-Friday of last week. 5mm to entire course Saturday. No watering Sunday and in light of weather forecast for Monday-Tuesday no watering planned for Monday. Reviewed daily.
Latest yr.no (7.28am Saturday): 8mm Saturday (up to 4pm) and 15 degrees
3.15pm: Law Of Average, Forager, The Bell Conductor, Counsel, Golden Long, Nogo’s Dream, Marching Mac (Francisco’s Piece wasn’t confirmed, so his ante-post backers miss out on money-back unfortunately)
Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Action, 4pm; 15-121 since 2016
1.30pm Epsom (no ante-post favourite Lake Forest): Alcantor (drawn 7), Balmacara (4), Golden Mind (2), Poet Master (6)
2.05pm Epsom: Breckenbrough (5), Shes Perfect (8) – Arisaig is a NR
2.40pm Epsom: Bay City Roller (4), Illinois (5), Lambourn (6)
3.15pm Epsom: Democracy Dilemma (3), Lexington Blitz (10), Eclairage (14), Kinswoman (17), Brazen Bolt (19), Emperor Spirit (7), Rhythm N Hooves (8), Almaty Star (13)
4pm Epsom: Action (11), A Taste Of Glory (7), Balzac (2), Bay Of Brilliance (9), Item (3), Poker (4)
4.40pm Epsom: Allegresse (5), Starlight Time (10), Silver State (2), Hell Yeah He Did (1), Folk Pageant (4), Pendella (9), York Tower (8) – Be The Standard is a NR
Good: Karl Burke, Richard Hannon (never seen his strike-rate so high), Aidan O’Brien, Ed Walker, William Haggas, George Scott, F-H Graffard, Tony Carroll, Mike Murphy, George Boughey, Hugo Palmer
Fair: Eve Johnson Houghton (double on Friday), Ian Williams, Adrian Keatley, Andrew Balding (fair/good), Ralph Beckett, Ed Dunlop, David O’Meara, Richard and Peter Fahey, Roger Varian, Joseph O’Brien (Classic-good, though), Charlie Johnston, Jane Chapple-Hyam (fair/moderate), Faye Bramley, Newland and Insole, David Loughnane, Mario Baratti, James Fanshawe (fair/good), Robert Cowell (fair/good), Sean Woods, Kevin Ryan, Archie Watson
Moderate: Dylan Cunha, Jack Channon, Daniel James Murphy, Stuart Williams, Ruth Carr, Mick Appleby, Michael Keady (small sample), Charlie Fellowes, J P Murtagh
2.30pm – Royal Ascot 2yo races – The Bonfire Of The Vanities Your Song is…
ROYAL ASCOT Going: Good to firm Going Stick – Stands side: 8.9, Centre: 8.7, Farside:…
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