TONY CALVIN: 13/2 chance appeals most on a tricky Friday ITV offering

Too much racing, and too few horses, innit – but small 5-day fields have held up well

WITH three Group 1 tracks racing on the same day on Friday, the small five-day fields are actually holding up very well at the overnight stage.

I know racetracks can pretty much do as they please, and the BHA have little control over the fixtures, but it is a bit silly that Newmarket, Ascot and Goodwood are all fishing in the same class pool on Friday (Ascot has switched from their normal Wednesday slot this year).

And Epsom raced a week later on Tuesday earlier in the week, too.

Too much racing, and too few horses, innit.

I’ll be back with the copy on Friday.

The ideal for punters is uniformity of ground and no watering

Watering has been in the news yet again this week, with the continuing dry spell.

We all know it is necessary on a number of levels, not least maximising field sizes, but let’s get one thing straight – the ideal for punters is uniformity of ground and no watering.

As it is, we go into a big weekend of Flat not knowing if said watering is going to produce any track biases.

We will soon find out….

RACE-BY RACE ANALYSIS

2.20pm Newmarket – It is that hood stat again for Appleby…

After flagging up Charlie Appleby’s brilliant record when applying first-time hoods (see below), it was a touch embarrassing to see Look To The Stars run appallingly in that initial headgear in the Esher Cup last week.

But I suspect there was a lot more at play than just the hood there, and Poseidon’s Warrior is the latest Appleby cab off the rank in this accoutrement.

If he improves for it, then he probably wins, even if he faces four unexposed rivals here, as he is comfortably the form horse on his Feilden Stakes second on his return.

But I am not sure how strong that race was, and with four decent sorts against him, I can let him win unbacked all day long at a best-priced [8/11].

2.35pm Ascot – Very tricky ITV opener at Ascot

As with three of the ITV races, there is a one-horse safety net of nine runners here for each-way backers but this 2m Group 2 Sagaro Stakes does not really have that type of betting shape to me.

All nine have chances of sorts.

Sweet William ranges from [11/8] to [7/4] in the early betting and he clearly deserves to be favourite, as this is his winning level, but he has a 5lb penalty for his Doncaster Cup success and that levels the playing field here.

Poor old Caballo De Mar has a 7lb burden for his Cadran win but he is clearly right in the mix here, too – as a best price quote of 4s suggests – and he ran well in defeat at Meydan at the end of March, too.

I couldn’t rule out anything in here against those two market leaders, even the 98-rated mare Miss Alpilles, who improved no end at the back-end, and a double-figure winner wouldn’t surprise me.

Moore on a 20s poke, and his mount is no forlorn hope

Beylerbeyi clearly has a lot to find as a 101-rated horse, but he is perhaps a little too big at 20s, with Ryan Moore on board.

He is hard-fit and still improving (the horse, that is) and you can clearly mark up his third at Newcastle last time, as he had no chance the way the race panned out.

No pace on paper

If there is a strong gallop here – which admittedly there isn’t on paper (see below), so that is a concern – then he will be coming home powerfully. And I think there is more to come from him.

Maybe they will try to ride him a bit more prominently here, providing he doesn’t start tardily again.

On thing is for sure – there is an opportunity for one jockey to show some initiative and try to nick an uncontested lead.

It’s a tricky race, betting-wise, to call, too.

2.55pm Newmarket – Vincenzo could be the pace angle here but there will be plenty queuing up behind him close home

I couldn’t see any confirmed front-runner in this – plenty of prominent racers – but perhaps David Egan will press on with Vincenzo Peruggia.

And I don’t think he is a bad price at 11s, for all this is a very tricky 3yo 1m 0-90 handicap to solve.

Vincenzo Peruggia actually gets into this race by the skin of his teeth (I was going to reference another body part of this colt, but this is a high-end column) off the ceiling mark of 92, as the handicapper only raised him 1lb for his Musselburgh reappearance second.

It took him a while to get to the front from the widest draw at Musselburgh, and it was a bit disappointing to see him be picked up when he did, but the runner-up ran well in defeat next time and is now 5lb higher, so perhaps he remains fairly handicapped.

The problem he has is that this is probably a much stronger handicap – he faces three twice-raced unbeaten horses from top stables (I think we can increasingly say that of George Scott’s yard), for starters – and a result for any of the nine in here wouldn’t surprise me, even the 33s outsider Royal Bodyguard, sneaking in off just 71.

No dice.

3.10pm Ascot – Stable form a big consideration here

Eight runners for this 6f Commonwealth Cup Trial but not a race that particularly interested me.

Wise Approach heads the betting at [7/4] and he is the class act, having beaten Brussels (who re-opposes here) 3/4 length in the Middle Park, but he carries a 4lb penalty for that Group 1 success (he is probably lucky it isn’t more as a Group 2 win attracts the same burden) and you’d also like to see Charlie Appleby in a bit better form of late.

Brussels has a 4lb swing for 3/4 length then and he went on to run two good races in defeat after the Middle Park, so maybe he would appeal a touch more than the favourite at [10/3].

But we really are guessing with the state of readiness of Aidan O’Brien’s 3yos at this time of the season.

Coppull (stable name must be Steve), a short-head behind Brussels in the Middle Park, is actually rated the same horse as Brussels and he is 4s here, with 11s and bigger the rest.

An easy race to swerve, with the three form horses making their returns.

3.30pm Newmarket – Santorini could be star at 13/2

The theme of Friday’s racing on ITV are competitive small-fields, and none so more than this seven-runner Group 2 1m4f Jockey Club Stakes.

I actually think the market is being a bit disrespectful to the 50s outsider Paradias, as he is fit and improving, even at the age of seven. And not too far off these on ratings.

The aforementioned George Scott provides the [5/2] favourite in Bay City Roller, who carries a 3lb penalty for his wide-margin Group 1 win in Munich at the back-end.

The form book suggests he wants the ground easier than is likely here (though they have been shovelling the water on – see below), and that [5/2] wouldn’t interest me.

Santorini Star at [13/2] does – and if you are lucky enough to have an account one firm offer that price and three places.

If you aren’t so fortunate then [13/2] win-only is okay, too.

I have no idea how straight she will be but she gets weight all round as the only mare in the line-up, and her form took off in the last part of the 2025 season. And I suspect she bumped into a high-class performer, and one we will hear a lot more from, in Consent when second in a Group 1 on her final start at Longchamp.

I appreciate this 1m4f trip will be a bare minimum for her here, and this may be a stepping stone to bigger prizes down the line, but this is a winnable Group 2 and I’m happy to take the risk on her at [13/2].

Unraced at two, I expect further forward strides from her this term. The ground is no issue for her, and I see plenty of pace in here.

3.50pm Goodwood – Favourite tough to beat but a 10/1 each-way option may not be too Tatty

This 4yo+ 1m4f Listed fillies’ race is big (ish) on potential and largely lacking in proven class, with Crepe Suzette the highest-rated in the contest on a mark of 103.

She rounded off last season with a third in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster, so she is definitely the one to beat in here form-wise, and it is just a matter of how straight she is for her return.

I have no idea.

Indeed, that is the case for all of these bar Incensed and Galaxy Star.

Crepe Suzette ranges from [4/5] to [6/5] in the early betting, but that isn’t for me.

Each-way backers have a bit of wriggle room with nine runners (and they may need it with the sun continuing to beat down after the watering, making owners and trainers nervous) and Tattycoram could interest some at 10s.

She is just an 89-rated filly but she ran well here last year when third to Waardah over 1m2f and I am sure I heard her owner Bert Black talking in positive terms about her on the Nick Luck sofa recently.

And trainer Ralph Beckett backed that up when saying the following in a stable our last week: “She’s done very well physically from three to four and we expect her to improve.”

She could be the each-way option then but the favourite could prove to be a class apart.

4.05pm Newmarket – 10/1 Billyjoh may be pick of the early prices

I’ve obviously no idea how straight Billyjoh will be on his return, and he certainly improved for his initial effort last season, but I have seen him entered at the five-day stage a few times in recent weeks, so maybe that is a positive.

What is definitely a plus is that he can race off 90 here, the lowest he has been since beaten a neck in a brace of handicaps at Southwell and Ascot in the early summer of 2024.

It is also a fair bit lower than he was when he put up a number of good placed efforts in decent handicaps last season – he finished third to More Thunder off 94 on the July course – and there is plenty of pace in here to suit his finishing run-style.

The 10s is probably the pick of the early prices, without going overboard.

FRIDAY’S DETAILS – all courses have updated on Thursday morning

NEWMARKET

GOING: Good 

GOING STICK: 6.9 , Thursday 8am

Rails: Stands Side Course in Use

Stalls: Centre 

Thursday course update: 1mm of rain since 16th March. Forecast: Thu – Sunny and dry with daytime highs of 16c and a strong eastly breeze. Fri – Bright and sunny, with a daytime high of 21c.

Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and Monday / Tuesday. Further 5mm applied on Wednesday.

Yr.no latest (7.16am Thursday): Largely dry, occasional showers, until 13mm Sunday

ASCOT (no recent watering details)

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

GOING STICK – Straight: 8.6, Round: 6.8

Soil Moisture: 39%; readings taken at 7.30am on Wednesday 29th April.

Thursday course update: Only 6mm rain recorded through April. Dry overnight to Wednesday morning, generally dry through to raceday with occasional showers possible on Friday afternoon. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

Watering: Watered Straight: 10mm on Tuesday and 3mm overnight to Monday. Watered 3mm overnight to the round course Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday mornings. Irrigated 20mm through the previous week. Will continue to water to maintain current conditions through the next week.

Yr.no latest (7.16am Thursday): Largely dry and warm, occasional showers

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good

GOING STICK: 7.3, Thursday 9.20am

Soil Moisture 43%

Rails: All races to be run on inner lines

Stalls: 5f & 6f Centre 1m4f Outside Rest Inside

Thursday course update: 1.3mm rain Monday night Today looks dry sunny and windy. Friday dry and sunny. Sunny spells for Saturday with showers rain arriving mid/late afternoon

Watering: Applied 8mm irrigation last week. Saturday 5mm to the Straight & Field Side. Monday 8mm to Straight Tuesday 8mm to Field Side & Mile Wednesday 8mm Field Side Thursday watering the Straight

Yr.no latest (7.16am Thursday): Dry and warm,, 11mm Saturday (due to start at 4pm)

PUNCHESTOWN

29 April 8.15am – The ground at Punchestown is yielding (Hurdle/Chase). Watering ongoing. Dry & breezy today. Possibilty of 3-4mm (approx) Thursday night into Friday

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Charlie Appleby hood; Poseidon’s Warrior, 2.20pm Newmarket; 34-108 since 2013

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

2.2opm Newmarket: Archers Bay, Lyneham, Poseidon’s Warrior, Ancient Egypt (prom)

2.35pm Ascot: No obvious pace (Ascending prominent racer)

2.55pm Newmarket: Vincenzo Peruggia looks most likely leader, though several prominent racers

3.10pm Ascot: Crown Relicl, Division, Ghost Mode, Brussels (prom), Coppull (prom),

3.30pm Newmarket: Bay City Roller, Eydon , Sunway, Santorini Star

3.50pm Goodwood: Tattycoram, Kissmehoneyhoney, Incensed

4.05pm Newmarket: Shah, Golden Redemption, Misunderstood, Benacre

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good:  John and Thady Gosden, George Scott, Ed Bethell, Alan King, Karl Burke, Ed Walker, Aidan O’Brien (fairish for him)

Fair: Ralph Beckett (fair/good), Charlie Appleby, William Haggas (fair/good), Stuart Williams, Richard Hannon, Hugo Palmer (fair/moderate), Andrew Balding. Michael Bell, Emma Lavelle (winner on Wednesday), David O’Meara (double on Wednesday), Ian Williams, Tom Clover (fair/moderate – no winners), Marco Botti, Clive Cox (no winners), Henry De Bromhead (fair/moderate – Punchestown winner on Wednesday), Mick Appleby, Charles Hills (fair/moderate)

Moderate: George Boughey (fair/moderate), David Menuisier (fair/moderate), Ben Haslam (2-1 winner on Wednesday), David Simcock, Charles Hills (a winner and a few placed horses though), Charlie Johnston (winner on Wednesday)

Don’t know (very small samples): Jessica Bedi, Amanda Perrett, Saeed bin Suroor (one winner; two runners)