TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY’s ITV course details – and the all-important double entries

Constitution Hill in at Newbury on Saturday – and now out as Henderson rules him out on Wednesday

Constitution Hill is one of 10 in Saturday’s John Porter at Newbury.

The others are Al Aasy, Bellum Justum, Burdett Road, Convergent, Eydon, Lion’s Pride, Phantom Flight, Pride Of Arras and Tenability.

One firm puffed their chest out at 10s about him on Monday, but soon breathed in at 4/1 now. He is best at [9/2], now.

Minimal money would have changed hands so far but he may not run, given the ground, for all the watering (see below).

It is good to firm there currently and they are going to water to try to be good ground for their Friday fixture. The forecast has got a bit wetter on Tuesday morning though, so it’s a tricky one for the clerk there.

Nicky Henderson told the Racing Post on Monday: “We’ve just got to see how the ground is, that’s the important thing. I’ll probably head over there on Wednesday and see what it’s like. It’s obviously a big concern, but I’ll probably have a pop round with George Hill [Newbury clerk of the course].”

Henderson ruled him out due to the ground on Wednesday.

As of first thing on Monday morning, there were 48 in Ayr’s Scottish Grand National and 34 in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.

There are now 25 and 18 respectively.

It is currently soft, good to soft in places, at Ayr and heavy will enter the description if the forecast is right (now good to soft, soft in places on Tuesday).

RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS FOR THE NINE ITV RACES

1.10pm Ayr – Sans Bruit just about heads the market at 3s

Just the 12 in this 2m handicap chase but only Classic Maestro has another option this week.

The prices are all around the place in this race, with Red Rum third Sans Bruit available at 3s, just ahead of Palacio at 7/2 and Le Nez Creux (ex-French and would be making his debut for Gavin Cromwell, who won this race last year, if running) at 5s, but there are some wild fluctuations in this market below them.

I can absolutely see the case for Sans Bruit at 3s , as he can race off a 1lb lower mark than last week, though he did disappoint in this race when coming to Ayr after winning the Red Rum at Aintree in 2024, a contest in which Traprain Law (pulled up in this race last season but normally a solid proposition) came second.

And he may prefer better ground than seems likely (I am working on the basis of soft ground given the forecast below).

A tricky race to call at this stage.

1.25pm Newbury, Fred Darling  – Quite the mystery why one outfit went 10s Touleen

Three of these are due to run in the Nell Gwyn on Wednesday – so don’t back Act Of Kindness, America Queen and Silenciosa ante-post (latter withdrawn due to colic on Wednesday) – and Botagoz and Ellusive Butterfly could also go elsewhere this week.

I am not sure why anyone would have wanted to price this up but four firms did , and one bookmaking organisation/three firms initially put Touleen in at 10s. I have no idea what was going on there, as she ranges from 8s to 12s for the 1,000 Guineas.

Mmmmm…..

The Owen Burrows filly is now [13/8] across the aboard, though she has to bounce back from a disappointing run in the Rockfel on her final start at two.

1.45pm Ayr – Where does Quebecois go?

There are 28 entries for this novices’ 3m handicap chase that can take 18 runners on the day.

Here is a list of double entries for a race that I personally wouldn’t go near ante-post, though I appreciate other people are more cavalier: Al Kalila, Califet En Vol, Gamesters Guy, Guard The Moon, Jipcot, Just Over Land, Kap Vert, Maximilian, Quebecois and Risk De Pluie.

Diamond Dealer and Quebecois are the early 5s joint favourites here. In fact, the latter is 4s favourite with one firm despite also having an entry in the Scottish National too (to be fair, he is 13/2 in a place, as well).

I haven’t seen what race is preferred for him at this stage.

Other than that I have nothing to add at this stage. It looks rather trappy.

2pm Newbury – Greenham

Only six firms have bothered with this too (as at 11.19am on Tuesday) and Zavateri is best at [7/4].

Running plans are presumably up in the air here as Albert Einstein is 6s and Talk Of New York 8s, and they are 8s and 6s respectively for the 2,000 Guineas! (Talk Of New York ran on Tuesday, alongside stablemate Maximised, and he was impressive enough there at odds-on in a small field but it didn’t scream Classic winner to me).

Wait until we see the final field on Thursday morning.

2.20pm Ayr – 7/2 Tellherthename could be another for the main man

Just the 18 in the Scottish Champion Hurdle (maximum field of 20) but Arch Empire and Dedicated Hero are the only double-entered horses.

Tellherthename is the one for early money/shortening at the top of the market, and he now trades at 7/2 tops.

He was a massive eyecatcher in the County Hurdle, tanking into the straight on the bridle and then getting no run whatsoever on the inside. His jockey didn’t move up the straight.

That was his first run for Dan Skelton, and this horse promised to be far better than his current mark of 133 in his time with Ben Pauling and the O’Neills.

I can fully see why the 6s and 5s (and indeed 4s) didn’t last, though he is touching 9/2 in a very illiquid exchange market.

Maybe better ground would be welcomed, but he is one serious player here after that Cheltenham run.

2.35pm Newbury – John Porter

Newbury are holding off watering again until Thursday at the earliest, with the forecast looking a bit wetter as of Tuesday morning (see below).

It is now good at Newbury, so running plans look to have improved for the Constitution Hill fanboys.

He is 9/2 best at the moment (and as short as 3s) but he has a proper job on here if this field holds up. It is a very strong Group 3 on ratings.

All firms would have been duty bound to price this up given the presence of the former Champion Hurdler in the field, and Convergent (who carries a 5lb penalty here along with Eydon, with Phantom Flight carrying a 3lb burden) narrowly heads the betting at 3s from Pride Of Arras, Al Aasy, Constitution Hill and Eydon.

Convergent is currently still in an early-closer at the Curragh on Sunday, but we will know more there on Tuesday afternoon.

He wasn’t confirmed.

I don’t think the books are giving away too much here at the moment.

2.55pm Ayr – NFI here from the layers, it seems

Only two outfits have priced this up so I don’t think there is much worth in discussing this 3m mares’ handicap hurdle.

For what it is worth, Kateira is the [5/2] favourite with both in this 18-runner race (two of the entries aren’t eligible it seems) .

Here are the double entries: Azahara Palace, Looking As You Are, Pinot Rouge, Pottersville, Society Soldier and Supreme Malinas (the latter pair haven’t been allotted a weight as they had to have run a minimum four times in hurdles in Britain, Ireland or France to qualify – so many horses these days are ineligible after being entered for races, which is very careless of their trainers).

3.10pm Newbury – Spring Cup

It is 7s the field in the Spring Cup. There are 30 entries (Release The Storm is ineligible after the two runs) for a maximum field of 27 on the day for this 1m handicap.

All firms that have priced this up are going 1/4 1,2,3,4 at the moment.

It is clearly a hugely competitive handicap and the numbers could well hold up at the overnight stage – Tycoon is due to run on Tuesday but Twisting Physics is the only other to have a double entry – so I’d say you will probably be looking at better price and place terms later in the week.

Cogitate is interesting enough at 25s now.

He was entered in a 7f handicap at Newmarket on Thursday, with Ryan Moore booked (never a bad sign), so presumably they have opted to come here instead.

He was seventh in this race last year on his seasonal reappearance but he has had a run this time around and a decent one at that, finishing second to a well-backed winner at Kempton last month. He was upped 1lb for that, which was fair enough.

He probably doesn’t have much in hand of his current mark of 88 – he has struggled off similar marks in the past – but he is in form and fit, he is a course winner for whom 1m on decent ground looks optimum. Saffie Osborne is currently  jocked up, fwiw.

We have plenty of Lincoln runners coming here, as usual, with seventh Eternal Force in at 7s and the 1-2 of Urban Lion and Rogue Diplomat in at 8s.

3.35pm Ayr, Scottish National – Chasingouttheblues heads my shortlist of three

Sorry to sound like a stuck record, but we have just 25 entries for a maximum field of 30.

Guard The Moon, Kap Vert, Maximilian and Quebecois hold double entries.

And the following 11 are in the 365 Gold Cup at Sandown a week on Saturday: Ask Brewster, Collectors Item, Gabbys Cross, Herakles Westwood , Kap Vert, Kim Roque, Magna Sam, Montregard, Our Power, Promontory and Road To Home.

It has to be said some bookmakers are taking the piss with their margins here , with one firm having six horses priced between 11/2 and 7s for starters.

You can see why King Of Answers and the 6yo Kim Roque head the betting at 6s, but I’d be looking further down the market if you fancy a bet at this stage.

Promontory does have that Sandown option but he has to be of interest here at 25s given the way he won over 3m4f+ at Leopardstown last month, and he could be very competitive here off his revised mark of 127 (though he is rated 5lb lower in Ireland, so the UK assessor has taken a view and spanked him)

He is a very lightly-raced 9yo and he is one to note if turning up here at the weekend.

Nicky Richards is flying at the moment and his old-timer Famous Bridge may have been a touch dismissed at the general 33s (48.0 win only on the exchange).

He ran poorly in this race last season off a mark of 141 and he is down to 132, having had no chance in that Cross Country nonsense at Cheltenham last time when 11lb out of the handicap.

The course winner may have gone at the game as a 10yo and he still has his 4m stamina to prove but he is also 10lb lower than when sixth in last year’s Ultima, so he may not be a forlorn hope.

I also think the hat-trick seeking, course winner Chasingouttheblues is a big price at the current [20.0] on the exchange as this goes live – he is the one I have backed at this stage win-only there (to small stakes, as that market is ridiculously illiquid).

He is 14s across the board, fixed odds, having been 20s yesterday.

His trainer is of the belief this improving 7yo is the type for this race.

Indeed, this is what Mark Walford said after his Carlisle win over 3m+ last time.

He said: “Chasingouttheblues loves a horse to aim at. He wants far further and he’s a Nationals horse. We might have a crack at the Scottish National if there’s a bit of give, he wouldn’t run on quick ground. He’s improving. This track suited him better than last time, when he wasn’t quite right.”

I like his form trajectory, the grinding style of his win last time and he has the profile to shine here off just a 4lb higher mark.

And we could get a better handle on that Carlisle form when the runner-up runs at Haydock on Wednesday (he didn’t advertise the form at all).

NEWBURY (two-day meeting starting on Friday).

GOING: Good

GOING STICK: 4.9, Wednesday 6am (was 5.5 on Tuesday and they have only had 0.6mm since….)

Soil moisture average = 41.5% (updated 15.04).

Wednesday course update: Breezy yesterday & drizzle all evening 0.6mm in total. Forecast: Cloudy start, windy this afternoon with gusts of 35mph & 2-4mm of rain expected. Thursday mostly dry with a low risk of a shower, breezy. Friday looks mostly dry, cloudy with a moderate breeze, 15C.

Watering: 8-12mm applied Monday. 

Yr.no forecast (8.30am Wednesday); 2.4mm Wednesday; 1.7mm Thursday; 1.3mm Friday; 0.3mm Saturday

AYR ( two-day meeting starting on Friday)

GOING: Soft, good to soft in places

GOING STICK: 6.6, Wednesday 7.20am

Rails:  Friday Chase Bends Inner Line Hurdle Bends In 12yds Saturday Chase Bends Inner Line Hurdle Bends Inner Line

Wednesday course update: Cloudy. 5mm past 24hrs Wed: Chance Of Rain Until Lunchtime, Rain Over Night, 15c Thur: Mainly Dry, Chance Of Light Showers Later, 15c Fri: Rain Early, Then Chance Of Showers. 15c Sat: Chance Of Light Showers, 14c

Yr.no forecast (8.30am Wednesday);  7.7mm more to come on Wednesday; 4.6mm Thursday; 5.8mm Friday; 2.4mm Saturday

DOUBLE ENTRIES (current)

1.10pm Ayr: Classic Maestro

1.25pm Newbury: Act Of Kindness (due to run on Wednesday), America Queen (due to run on Wednesday), Botagoz, Ellusive Butterfly, Silenciosa  (withdrawn due to colic on Wednesday)

1.45pm Ayr: Al Kalila, Califet En Vol, Gamesters Guy, Guard The Moon, Jipcot, Just Over Land, Kap Vert, Maximilian, Quebecois, Risk De Pluie

2pm Newbury: Maximised (ran on Tuesday), Talk Of New York (ran on Tuesday)

2.20pm Ayr: Arch Empire, Dedicated Hero

2.35pm Newbury: None

2.55pm Ayr: Azahara Palace, Looking As You Are, Pinot Rouge, Pottersville, Society Soldier, Supreme Malinas

3.10pm Newbury: Twisting Physics, Tycoon (ran on Tuesday)

3.25pm Ayr: Guard The Moon, Kap Vert, Maximilian, Quebecois

IMPORTANT NB: Ask Brewster, Collectors Item, Gabbys Cross, Herakles Westwood , Kap Vert, Kim Roque, Magna Sam, Montregard, Our Power, Promontory and Road To Home are also in at Sandown in April 25