TONY CALVIN: 12/1 chance has far stronger claims than price suggests

Tricky day but there are bets to be had

You pretty much have an accurate, immediate feel as to whether a card, or ITV offering, is going to appeal as a punting proposition, and I think it is fair to say 2yo contests, condition races and sprint handicaps don’t normally tend to do it for me.

Which is why it is doubly important to put aside the pre-conceived thoughts, I guess, and go through your normal processes – god, that sounded very psychiatrist-like, sorry – as bets occasionally come at you from unexpected corners.

Whether they turn out to be welcome corners is another matter entirely….

Anyway, I’ll deal with the eight ITV races in chronological order once again.

I am not going to waffle on for the sake of it if I can’t see anything of note to report in each race.

As you may have seen in Friday’s column, I have expanded the stats and information section to include officially well-in horses and I have now included a “Trainer In Focus” as part of the trainer-form assessment.

This will be someone whose current run is of particular interest, either good or bad.

Step forward, Charles Byrnes. It is your turn today.

1.15pm Newmarket – 7/1 Skellet the best bet in a tricky race

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if any of the nine won this, and that includes the lowest-rated pair of Peace Man and Savvy Victory.

It is such a tight-knit race, I couldn’t see any avenue that led you to a betting conclusion, though my idea of the right favourite would be Liberty Lane, who is 4s in a place.

I suppose Skellet was a possible exception as the only 3yo filly in the race, as she gets 7lb all round bar the 6lb she receives from the fellow 3yo, but penalised, Lead Artist.

Skellet hasn’t really kicked on since her narrow second in the Oh So Sharp at this meeting last season (under today’s jockey Ryan Moore) but she ran her best race since winning in Listed company at Sandown last time and there doesn’t need to be much more improvement to make her a live danger to all here.

Moore is back on board for the first time since last season (there is no real significance in that as he regularly rides for Juddmonte when he isn’t needed elsewhere) and the generally available 7s (in five places) is probably the bet in the race if there is one (the 8s was taken on Thursday).

I’ll ignore the fact that Spirit Dancer – the highest-rated in here on 118 – is [20/1] in a place, when the next best price is 12s. He was actually 25s yesterday.

UPDATE: Skellet is a non-runner as he is lame, so the above was a complete waste of time….

1.30pm York – Main fancy Invictus Gold a bit too short for me

Nothing doing in here, in truth.

Bolo Neighs and the regressive Shadow Army (gelded and blinkered, so he could bounce back I suppose – UPDATE, he is a non-runner as at 6.26am with a bad scope, so he won’t be) are the form horses, so I would have thought Invictus Gold would have been bigger than [7/2], for all he was impressive when pouring it on late to win at Newmarket last time.

Mind you, he is as short as [5/2] in places, so maybe that [7/2] in four places is a bargain.

I can’t see it, though.

He may well win – in fact, he could be the most likely winner in here – but I’d want a fair bit bigger in an open race. 4s at a minimum. The third at Newmarket may have been well beaten there but he was also stuffed off 57 in a Southwell nursery last time.

1.50pm Newmarket – 12/1 Too Soon is far too big

Aidan O’Brien relies on two of his eight five-day entries, and it is no surprise that Moore is on Shackleton, best at [9/4] as opposed to Gowran winner County Mayo, an 8s poke.

Incidentally, a very boring fact is that I took a tour around Shackleton’s ship Discovery in Dundee last year.

Some nasty people may say this 1m2f 2yo race is a test for boats, too – see how I teed myself up there? (I admit that sounds a bit dodgy) – but Shackleton looks the right favourite on form and on the clock.

Mind you, there is probably some snobbery at play in Too Soon being quoted at [12/1] in three places.

Correction.

Replace probably with definitely.

Gary and Josh Moore’s juvenile finished third at Ascot last month in a good time – the form has worked out very well – and he went hard through the line (that is to say he finished well in plain English) when winning over an extended 1m on heavy ground at Epsom last time.

He was beating four winners there – including The Green Mile, who re-opposes here on 3lb better terms for 4 lengths – so I take a very positive view of the performance.

You are obviously dealing with lightly-raced horses and a lot of unknowns here, but Too Soon is definitely the bet at 12s if you want an interest.

Back to that Ascot form.

We haven’t seen the winner or fourth since, but the second and fifth won next time, and the sixth is now rated 82 after a good second last time out. And Too Soon was almost certainly disadvantaged by racing widest on the track there on a day where there was a stands’ rail bias.

I am more than happy to take a chance on him at 12s, a price available in three places. A rare punt in a 2yo race for me.

I really like him, in fact – he is the clear bet of the day on the ITV races at 12s for me – and he would appeal at 8s or bigger, maybe even a tad below that.

Other betting avenues for Too Soon

Only one firm are currently betting without Shackleton and they are [6/1] Too Soon.

Too big.

They also offer [4/1] Too Soon without the favourite and Starzintheireyes.

Too big.

One firm are actually offering Too Soon at 12s each way, three places.

Too huge.

2.05pm York – 11/1 Stressfree and 20/1 Euchen Glen are my pair against field

For some reason, the bookmakers were very slow to price this up on Thursday, and some still haven’t as this goes live.

Perhaps they found it very hard to fathom (mind you, plenty just steal prices from others anyway and tweak a touch), as the first two firms up on Thursday disagreed on a fair few.

It was 8s the field if you cherry-picked then, but one had Harper’s Ferry as their 6s favourite and the other went 12s.

I’d duck Harper’s Ferry too, as connections have long since held the view that he is much better than his current mark of 93.

They were talking in Derby terms at the start of the season but his temperament has got the better of him, refusing to go in the stalls when punted for the Dee Stakes at Chester and then pulling far too hard at Doncaster last time (he did very well to finish as close as he did there, which is why the handicapper refused to drop him).

In between those outings, intended and realised, he shaped much better than the bare form would indicate when he looked a non-stayer over 1m4f in the King Edward VII Stakes.

They resist the temptation to run him in a hood here but it could be telling they have removed the tongue-tie he has worn on his last two starts.

What exactly that tells us is beyond my pay grade but if any horse has the ability to win this race easily it is probably Harper’s Ferry.

If he behaves. The 12s has gone, the 9s disappeared at 8.40am on Friday morning, and he is best at [7/1] now. Still just about fair, given his potential.

UPDATE as at 5pm Friday: Harper’s Ferry is a NR due to going, so that was a complete waste of time, too….

My old mate Euchen Glen is overpriced at 20s in three places (yes, I have, as he will pop up one day and my head will explode if I don’t at least have a tenner on him – and the case is there to be made for him given his run last time against a bang-in-form and improving horse) but Stressfree can race off the same mark as when just touched off over 1m2f in heavy ground at Leicester earlier in the week (Tuesday) and he could be the one to beat.

Obviously, the quick turnaround is a worry, but he has run well when turned out promptly before and he will be going up 2lb or so for that Leicester second. That is strong handicap form, backed up by the clock.

He is probably the best weighted horse in here, and the 11s in six places is too big.

I backed three (now, two obviously) against the field; Harper’s Ferry, Stressfree and Euchen Glen.

It is up to you if you want to follow me in. Stressfree at 11s is the pick of the current prices, even if I find the stable impossible to fathom. They are very much a numbers outfit.

The idea of this column is obviously to give you all the information and arguments, and you make your own choices on occasions.

It is very different in that regard, and I make no apologies for it. Hard work is rarely wasted.

By the way, the going stick readings below suggest the stands’ side is quicker.

2.25pm Newmarket – 12/1 Genealogy hasn’t been beating trees

I won’t be having a bet in this race, but Genealogy is clearly only 12s because Moore is on the [7/4] favourite Delacroix.

That is stating the bleedin’ obvious.

Apologies.

That is predictable enough then, as Delacroix boasts the best form courtesy of his narrow Group 2 second last time but Genealogy is not far behind him after a good Punchestown win.

Post-race comments suggests he is a bit of a unit and I reckon Wayne Lordan could send him to the front and play catch-me-if-you-can.

Hopefully, he won’t play after-you-Claude when stablemate Delacroix comes to him 1f out.

I’m not punting here, though.

The mention of Claude leads me to hope The Punting Pal is alive and kicking. Not heard of him for a while.

2.40pm York – 25/1 Archduke Ferdinand a very token selection

I have no inclination to get involved in a maximum 22-runner sprint handicap here – five were balloted out, so see below for those money-back horses – but the thing that struck me on the pace map (again see below) was how much early speed is drawn middle to high.

I won’t have a bet in the race but I thought the 25s about Archduke Ferdinand from stall 21 was fair enough.

He is in the form of his life since cheekpieces were fitted, and forcing tactics were adopted, though his rider may be best to take a lead here given the pace in the race on his side.

I couldn’t see a reason why you would offer 25s, so he is the best trade in the race, even if he isn’t really one to go to war with (sorry, but pun-meisters can feel free to nick that, probably over-used already, line if he gets up in a close, battling finish – actually I think one of the “best” punsters, Stewart Machin, is commentating at York…..).

Oh, look, Summerghand is in here and is 12s (no I haven’t, but he will pop up one day).

If you fancy 12s chance Germanic then I will mention he was a big late drifter when running poorly last time, so he is better than that. He is a big player, down in trip.

3.00pm Newmarket – The Lion In Winter can win unbacked at evens

It’s going to take a good one to beat The Lion In Winter after what we saw him do in the Acomb at York last time, but that is why he is evens. In fact, that is being taken and he is generally a [10/11] chance.

The manner of the victory was visually impressive, the clock loved it too, and the form has worked out.

The third hasn’t been seen since, but the runner-up Wimbledon Hawkeye won the Group 2 Royal Lodge next time and the fourth, The Waco Kid, took the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes by a wide margin.

But I can let even-money (and [10/11]) pokes win seven days a week – and twice on Saturdays.

You never know what you are dealing with when it comes to O’Brien juveniles – the second-strings have been winning a fair bit of late – but I did like Expanded’s attitude when he won on his debut at the Curragh.

Mind you, it takes a leap of faith to see this [33/1] chance turning over The Lion In Winter, or indeed the Godolphin pair perhaps.

UPDATE at 6am Saturday – massively disappointingly news as The Lion In Winter is out with a bruised foot (as at 5,43am)

3.40pm Newmarket – 16/1 Premiere Ligne can turn back the Irish tide

The Irish have cast a huge shadow over this race in recent years, winning five of the last six runnings, and victory number six is heavy odds-on.

They have 13 runners, and their horses dominate the betting.

They have the top three in the market, ranging from [9/2] to [8/1], and pretty much eight of the top 10 in the betting. And dangerous floaters besides.

Stranglehold.

I’d be against the [9/2] favourite Sea Of Sands on price and stamina grounds, but I can fully see the case for pretty much all of the rest of the Irish contingent at bigger, and fairer, prices.

Manxman was the 16s ante-post bet (mine anyway)

Manxman and Premiere Ligne (see below – officially the best handicapped horse in here alongside Sixandahalf) head the home challenge and I agree that they are the UK’s best hopes.

I just stopped short of tipping Manxman in my ante-post piece on Monday but I’ll admit to having had a few quid on him at 16s and 14s earlier in the week. Mostly win-only but I had a small dabble each-way, too.

He is 12s now, and that is okay, still. Particularly as there are now five and six places out there for each-way punters (AKBets bet to traditional terms), and indeed eight if you want to take some very poor prices in doing so.

Ed Chamberlin really should mention that in his TV ad between races….

I am going to keep it simple-ish and tip Premiere Ligne at [16/1]. The 14s, including with AKBets, is fine.

I’ll settle at win-only but it is up to you if back him each way – I have played mostly on the nose, but I have backed him each way, if only getting five places for my many sins – and can get the tastier place terms.

I am not going to put you off if you want to (and, more importantly, can) but that is your own personal choice.

The in-running defeats and the headgear angle 

Anyway, back to Premiere Ligne’s claims.

First things first, I had never heard of his jockey, 5lb claimer Jack Doughty.

Now, don’t misunderstand me.

That is an epic fail on my part. I know I only tip on ITV days, so I don’t have the daily interaction/obsession of others, but how have I not heard of a rider who has ridden 39 winners from 302 rides this season?

His record tells you he is probably fair value for his 5lb – and he can do 7st 12lb (so can I, but twice, though I have slimmed down a bit)- so that’ll do for me.

Sorry for my ignorance by the way, Jack, and hopefully you are on winner number 40 here.

You could be.

He is on a horse who has blossomed since being stepped up from 1m4f to extreme staying trips on his last two starts, finishing second in that extended 2m4f race at Goodwood and runner-up in the Ces Trial over course and distance recently.

He is 3lb well-in on the latter effort, in which he traded at 1.4 in running (I am very surprised it wasn’t shorter) after cruising into contention before getting worried out of it by ¾ length, with a further seven back to the third.

He also hit 1.62 in running at Goodwood, and traded at 1.17 before getting chinned at the same Sussex course in June, so there is a fair case for him being labelled a bit of a twicer.

With that in mind, the first-time blinkers could be a very good move by the combative Hughie, and his record with this move is fair enough (11 from 92).

This is a horse who you can certainly see improving for them, but I like to dig a bit deeper on the accoutrements front and find some family angles.

Now, this is probably nothing but an attempted clever filler, but the dam’s half-sister, Emollient, won a Grade 1 in first-time blinkers at Santa Anita.

The relevance is probably close to zero but I liked it, so it is staying in.

Morrison has his team in fair form, with a good, punted winner on Friday – lukewarm advice given about the winner at 11s on here, as with the two Chepstow scorers…. – and won this race with Sweet Selection in 2016, so I think the 16s is  very fair, all things considered.

Hopefully, he has a no-excuses draw in 10.

Good luck, all.

Too Soon is the bet of the day, however you decide to get with him.

 

BETS

Too Soon at [12/1] in 1.50pm at Newmarket. Available in three places (other betting opportunities are mentioned in copy above)

Premiere Ligne at [16/1] in 3.40pm Newmarket. Available in three places.

NB: Other betting pointers/suggestions are mentioned in copy.

 

GOING AND WEATHER – updated as at 8.30am. That’s my lot, good luck….

 

NEWMARKET 

Going: Good to soft, good in places

Going stick: 6.7 as at 6.30am Saturday (firmed up slightly)

Weather:  4.5mm on Saturday

 

YORK 

 

Going:  Soft

Going stick: 5.7 as at 8.30am Saturday

Far Side – 5.7: Centre – 5.7: Stands Side – 5.5

Weather:  2.5mm and showers on Saturday

 

CHEPSTOW (not on ITV but thought I’d include as everyone loves NH Racing….)

 

Going – Hurdles: Good to soft; Chase: Good, good to soft in places

Going stick – Hurdles: 6.2; Chase: 6.2 (as at 7.10am Saturday)

Weather:  Light showers on Saturday

 

 

BALLOTED OUT (money back for ante-post punters)

 

2.40pm York: Commanche Falls, Fortamour, Admiral D, Alcazan, Trilby

 

SUPPLEMENTED (FOR 35k)

 

3pm Newmarket: Shadow Of Light

 

AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

 

3.40pm Newmarket: Premiere Ligne 3lb well-in; Sixandahalf (rated 3lb higher in Ireland); Manxman 1lb; Spirit Mixer 1lb

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Richard Fahey blinkers 20-165 (since 2009) – Shadow Army, 1.30pm York

Andrew Balding cheekpieces 13-99 (2016) – King’s Lynn, 2.40pm Newmarket

Andrew Balding blinkers 12-61 (2009) – Spell Master, 4.15pm Newmarket

Hughie Morrison blinkers 11-92 (2009) – Premiere Ligne, 3.40pm Newmarket

Ralph Beckett blinkers 39-248 (2009) – Funny Story, 4.50pm Newmarket

John and Thady Gosden blinkers 10-62 (2021) – Aegean Sea, 4.15pm Newmarket

George Boughey cheekpieces 13-94 (2020) – Embrace, 4.50pm Newmarket

 

PACE MAPS (manually done)

 

1.15pm Newmarket: Al Mubhir?, Liberty Lane (prominent), Peace Man (prom), Lead Artist (prom)

1.30pm York: Jungle Drums, Milford, It Ain’t Two, Raneenn

1.50pm Newmarket (very little to go in in 2yo races): Green Storm, Shackleton

2.05pm York: Bolster, Valvano, Euchen Glen?, Sisyphean

2.25pm Newmarket: Delacroix, Night Walker, Geneaology (prominent)

2.40pm York (pace looks middle to high): The Bell Conductor, (stall 19) Germanic (10), Sergeant Wilko (11), Hyperfocus (13), Archduke Ferdinand (21), Quest For Fun (18), Eye Of Dubai (22)

3.00pm Newmarket: Rock Of Cashel (very little info to go on and others in here have raced prominently)

3.40pm Newmarket: Queenstown (prom), Roberto Escobarr?, Magellan Strait (prom), Sea Of Sands (prom), Trooper Bisdee?, Zealandia (prom), Bashful Boy, Lady Percival

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done; does not include Friday’s results – includes a “Trainer In Focus”)

 

******TRAINER IN FOCUS*****

Charles Byrnes (Run For Oscar and Reverend Hubert in Cesarewitch)

Byrnes is 0 from 37 on the Flat in Ireland this season (just one placed) and he hasn’t had a jumps winner since August (he was 1-22 that month), though he has had only 13 runners in that sphere since the summer.

You’d certainly like to see more from him.

He has had three runners at 4s and 5s run badly of late, and a recent 2-1 chance got brought down in a Galway bumper on Tuesday.

His luck is out at the moment, but he did have a 25-1 chance finish a decent fourth at Thurles on Thursday.

It is not a great picture there at the moment, though. He is also 0 from 3 over here in the current seasons.

 

Good: Ralph Beckett (very good), Karl Burke, Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby, Tom Clover, Sir Michael Stoute, Ed Walker, Iain Jardine, Jennie Candlish, Joseph Parr, Joseph O’Brien, Willie Mullins (maybe more fair for him)

Fair:  David O’Meara, George Boughey, Hugo Palmer, James Horton (no winners), Kevin Ryan (winner at York on Friday), John and Sean Quinn (14-1 winner on Friday, grrrr….), Andrew Balding, William Haggas (fair for him, anyway), Hughie Morrison (punted 11-2 winner on Friday), Simon and Ed Crisford (three recent winners), Marco Botti (winner on Friday), William Muir and Chris Grassick, Gary and Josh Moore, Richard Fahey (borderline moderate), William Knight, Jim Goldie (double on Thursday), Kevin Philippart De Foy, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Craig Lidster (winner on Thursday), David and Nicola Barron, Michael Dods, Bryan Smart (if no winners), Tim Easterby (18-1 and 14-1 winners in last two days), Seb Spencer (very few runners), Brian Ellison (borderline moderate), John and Thady Gosden (borderline good), Sean Woods, Charlie Johnston, Gordon Elliott, Ian Williams (borderline moderate), Sir Mark Prescott, Lucinda Russell, Gavin Cromwell (two winners on Thursday), Mrs C O’Leary (effectively Tony Martin), David Pipe (winner on Friday)

Moderate: Conrad Allen (very few runners, so maybe harsh), Charlie Hills (in winner terms, but horses beginning to run well, though Pogo finished last on Friday), Charles Byrnes (see above), Emmet Mullins (very small sample), John McConnell (certainly could be better, but some running well in defeat, to be fair – probably in fair  form to be honest )