By Tony Calvin - 13 November 2025
First things first, unless Cheltenham gets incredibly lucky today – which it has so far, to be fair, and still only light rain continues to fall as at 12.30pm, accompanied by a rather brisk breeze by all accounts (it appears to getting a bit heavier now, so a heavy mention may not be far away) – it is going to be heading towards soft/heavy before the end of the meeting.
As per a 12.03pm course update, the going has eased to soft, good to soft in places.
There has been no going stick reading update today: “Raceday reading not available, stick not working.”
The going was changed to soft after the first race.
So I would suggest it is not a day to go in balls-deep, betting-wise.
Actually, head-first may be a more acceptable description, sorry.
I wouldn’t have an overly-strong opinion in this 2m4f veterans’ chase, regardless – especially in those worsening conditions throughout the day – but Eldorado Allen looked a fair enough price at [17/2] and 8s when I first started looking at this race on Thursday afternoon, though the obvious issue he has is that maybe four of these like to press on, too.
But Eldorado Allen, no win-machine it has to be said, doesn’t need to dominate and you’d have thought Brendan Powell would be happy to take a lead if they go too lickety-split early doors.
We know the heavy ground winner can handle the deteriorating conditions, he is a course winner, and he has a decent record when fresh.
He is also down to a mark of just 142 now (24lb shy of his 2022 peak and his lowest-ever handicap rating) and his proven stamina over much further than this 2m4f trip is no bad thing.
He is also 8lb lower than when a 4 1/4 length third to Numitor in a course and distance veterans’ chase qualifier in December.
If you want a bet in the race, he’d definitely be my pick at the current, generally available, 8s.
I may even have a small win-only bet on him myself – and I have.
Lord Baddesley missed an engagement at Wincanton on Saturday due a “swelling”, but that was only two days after his Newbury win, so that is understandable.
He’d be a threat here, as that all-the-way win in a three-runner race at Newbury was his first after a wind op, and he could kick on again.
The 11s about him is fair. Make that was – he is now a NR.
Dreal Deal is the mover in this, into 4s from double-figures yesterday.
Another relative betting waste of an ITV race, with a small-field novices’ chase being put on TV instead of the 19-runner handicap hurdle that opens the card or the 18-strong handicap hurdle that ends it.
I have no interest in this, though it is an okay race, to be a bit more positive from a viewing point of view.
Even with a 3lb penalty, Leave Of Absence is officially the form horse in here (he is also the oldest as an 8yo) after his win here last time, but being raised 14lb for that success in a race blighted by omitted obstacles did seem a little extreme.
I’d be more worried about the likely ground for him here though. And maybe they will pull him out if it gets bad.
Either way, the [11/4] about him does not excite me in the slightest.
One Big Bang is probably a better bet at 4s, as the former winning pointer will not mind the rain for his chasing debut.
But I wouldn’t dream of having a bet in this, so ignore that.
AKBets are top price about every horse in this race, with Jonbon at 17/20.
The market has changed somewhat from the start of the week when Jonbon was as short as [2/5].
He is now available at [5/6], and you can see why. In fact, he started the day (in the early hours) at [11/10], so he has been trimmed in again.
He has had his first wind op since we last saw him finish second in the Celebration Chase at Sandown in late April , which is possibly a red flag as he is on the verge of turning 10, he has a 6lb penalty, this is his first run of the season and a slog may not be what he wants on his return.
And maybe he wants 2m4f and more this season. He is not for me.
The problem is the opposition is a relatively rum bunch as far as Grade 1 2m chasers go, with his old sparring partner Edwardstone 11 turning 12, but at least a few of these are up-and-coming chasers.
L’Eau du Sud and Libberty Hunter are favoured most in the betting, but I can see why Matata has shortened since Thursday.
The bookmaking outfit (three firms) that went up 33 were soon accommodated – just what were they expecting? – and he is now best at 12s, with the 16s and 14s being hoovered up yesterday afternoon (hands up, I got a bullseye at 16s).
That shortening is off-putting but that could still be fair about the joint second-highest chaser in the race on a mark of 157 – Jonbon is rated 168 but carries that penalty – and one who has had a recent spin.
That run here last month was hardly promising but it would have least blown away the cobwebs and his best form makes him a player in this.
He was rated 163 after his 2m Windsor handicap win in the soft in January and he has three bits of 2m Cheltenham form, including on heavy, that arguably make him the most credible danger to the favourite here.
But 12s is probably his price now, for all I’d side with him, over the rest, if forced to have a bet.
Which of course, we are not.
Relatively slim pickings, talent-wise, for the 2m5f Grade 2 novices’ hurdle but a likeable enough race all the same, and competitive, too.
These youngsters could be racing in very testing ground and weather by the time of this race, so only hardy souls need apply here.
Cheltenham Festival bumper second Heads Up is the obvious one in this and is priced accordingly at [2/1].
One negative is that trainer John McConnell is on one of his many awful runs, a [5/4] winner aside, and there is only so much store you can put in his record at the autumn Cheltenham meetings.
And he drew a blank here in October.
At least he has the most talented horse going into this race, and one who did it well on his hurdling debut at Listowel in September.
I can certainly let him win unbacked at 2s, though.
And that is available in only in one spot, anyway.
I thought the opener at 1.10pm looked impossible, and of course the starting point for the concluding 2m novices’ handicap hurdle is Alphonse Le Grande.
The 2024 Cesarewitch winner is rated 93 on the Flat but can race off just 98 here (he is actually rated 96 over hurdles, but he is 2lb out of the handicap).
The last time he ran over hurdles he finished a moderate sixth off 98 at Ludlow in November 2023, but of course he has improved a great deal on the level since.
Adequate jumping and luck in running should see him as very hard beat, but good luck if you are willing to back him at [11/4].
Let’s see what the weather does during the day, too.
Good luck today.
The track has had 7mm since last night.
The ground is now good to soft, soft in places.
Rain is forecast throughout the day, with 28mm in total, with 15mm of that before and during racing.
Could be more, could be less – and the course has got away very lightly so far.
The track’s live rain gauge suggests it is currently not raining there, but the weather map suggests heavy rain will arrive at around 8am (unless the defences of racing’s natural amphitheatre sees it off…).
The NRs are beginning to come through.
Luttrell Lad came out of the opener yesterday with an infected foot and Brookie (2.55pm) and Fountains Blenhein (3.30pm) have been taken out because of the going.
There will be more to come.
I’m looking at copy now, though I must say the wisdom of punting into that forecast is questionable, though at least it doesn’t appear to be as bad as Thursday promised.
I will not be posting any Friday copy until I assess the ground/weather situation tomorrow morning.
How could you?
Unless you are working on the basis of soft/heavy ground, I guess, but even then you have to think there will be a steady stream of NRs in the morning, with each-way terms changing in some races.
Fortunately, Cheltenham provide a live rain gauge, so fellow insomniacs – that Andrea Jenkyns song at the Reform conference was a worldie, and my favourite ditty, even if she is an undoubted dullard – can monitor the rainfall here: https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/
All weather sites – so not just the below – have a brutal rain forecast starting at around 7pm tonight and not stopping until the early hours on Saturday.
So while Friday should hopefully be okay, if rather wet, I imagine we are odds-on for an inspection on Saturday morning if the forecasts are on the money.
Which is not always the case, admittedly. And they can change in an instant.
The famous drying/draining prowess of Cheltenham may be needed on Saturday though, and if I were the BHA/Cheltenham I’d be working on (a hopefully/probably un-needed) contingency plan of running some big Saturday races on the Sunday.
There is a yellow rain warning in place from 6am Friday into 6am Saturday.
And there is now an amber warning in place from Friday midday to 11.59pm: “Storm Claudia is expected to bring heavy rain leading to flooding and disruption on Friday.”
Some areas could get 50-80mm, with strong winds another potential headache.
One hope is that Cheltenham is relatively on the outskirts of the amber warning – and that horseboxes travelling to the track isn’t too much of a jeopardy in the conditions.
The safety of those travelling to the track in monsoon conditions, in large vehicles, as well as the horses, is often overlooked.
Make your own Claudia Winkleman jokes, then.
I’ll get the ball rolling with: Claudia set to wrinkle Cheltenham man
Perhaps not.
Going: Soft
Going stick: 5,9, Thursday 3.30pm (not updated today yet – stick not working)
Friday morning course update: 21mm Monday – Thursday morning. Dry during the day Thursday. 7mm rain overnight (@05:30). Further rain forecast (some heavy) throughout the day.
Weather (latest yr.no forecast. as at 7am): 28mm Friday
Watering: Last watering on the Round Course Friday 7th
Rails: Chase +7y Hurdle +5y
None
Ben Pauling cheekpieces 9-80 (since 2018); 1.10pm Cheltenham, As Legends Have It
DJ Jeffreys cheekpieces 0-14 (2020); 4pm Cheltenham, Farhh Echo
1.45pm Cheltenham: Gunsight Ridge, Eldorado Allen, Numitor (prom?), Escaria Ten (prom)
2.20pm Cheltenham: Leave Of Absence, Isaac Des Obeaux, Wade Out
2.55pm Cheltenham: Jonbon, L’Eau du Sud, Edwardstone?, Haddex Des Obeaux, Matata
3.30pm Cheltenham: Destination Dubai, Great Fleet, Heads Up, Imperfectlyperfect, King’s Bucks?, Welonlyhavedone
Good: Olly Murphy, Nicky Henderson, Heather Main, Anthony Honeyball (very good), Martin Keighley (small sample), Dan Skelton (even if last few days has been modest on a lesser stage), Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Henry de Bromhead
Fair: Joe Tizzard, P J Rothwell, Paul Nicholls (maybe nearer good), James Owen, Donald McCain (winner on Wednesday), Russell and Scudamore (double on Wednesday), Alan King, Evan Williams (last two runners have won at 3s and 6-4 after a poor spell)
Moderate: Neil Mulholland, Killahena and McPherson, John McConnell, Gavin Cromwell
Don’t know: Richard Hobson
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