TONY CALVIN: Two to consider on a packed Saturday on ITV

No Nicholls on a Saturday

I’m sure he has had plenty of weekend no-shows before but I can’t readily recall the last time Paul Nicholls didn’t have a runner on a relatively high-profile Saturday card, let alone at Cheltenham.

I am sure it is only a matter of time before the great man catches fire, but it was just something that caught my eye, that’s all.

In common with Nicholls, I am also going to ease my way slowly into the new National Hunt season, keeping stakes low, as fitness is obviously key at this time of year, and we are guessing to a fair extent there.

Anyway, there are 10 races on the box, so let’s get stuck in.

1.10pm Cheltenham – 10/1 Weveallbeencaught could be hard to catch

It would be good to see Christian Williams have a winner at Cheltenham on Friday, as that would further bolster my confidence in Weveallbeencaught in here.

Well, to a degree, anyway. And Williams wouldn’t be in that poor form anyway, even if he could certainly do with a winner.

The negatives with his relatively new recruit are that he is clearly regressive (though he is only seven, so there is plenty of time to arrest the slide) and that this 2m4f trip may be on the sharp side for him.

But he did win here over 2m4f over hurdles on New Year’s Day in 2023 (making all) and I have enough pace in here (see below) to make it a good test at this trip.

Indeed, the selection could try to force it himself and he did make a fair debut for the yard when third of five at Worcester over 2m7f recently, a race from which the fourth came out and won a handicap off 123 at Sedgefield last Sunday.

The Worcester form alone gives Weveallbeencaught a solid enough chance but his back-form for the Twister makes a mark of 128 even more exploitable, as his third to Flooring Porter and Broadway Boy over 3m+ at this meeting last year is clearly smart form in the context of this race.

The first-time cheekpieces could well be a big plus too, as the trainer has an excellent 20 per cent strike when applying this headgear (more than double his general rate of around 10 per cent – that is a rarity in these situations) and Catboy was a recent, well-backed, example of this when making all at Fontwell last month.

He is 10s in two places here, and 9s in two spots, and both prices are highly acceptable, as is the more generally available [8/1] and [17/2].

I’ll go win-only.

14/1 chance Jazzy Matty could be problematical if turning out quickly after that excellent run on Friday.

1.30pm Doncaster – 12s La Bellota and 16s King’s Call two to consider

The dead-eight is always worrying for potential each-way backers, but this is not a race I am falling over myself to bet in regardless.

If you wanted an interest then La Bellota and King’s Call would be my two against the field, taking on sexier types, and respective prices of 12s and 16s are not too bad.

I probably won’t have a bet in the race but, if I do, I’ll Malcolm McLaren those.

I have just listened to Double Dutch on the back of writing that.

Not a bad tune.

1.45pm Cheltenham – 16/1 Hauraki Gulf not a no-hoper against the Irish

Another five-runner race at Cheltenham in which the Irish have four of the field, and the other is the outsider of the party.

I suppose one thing Deborah Cole’s 16s chance Hauraki Gulf has going for him is that he does get 8lb from the rest, and comes here in decent enough form.

I don’t think he is a no-hoper by any means, but this does look a tricky, small-field heat.

For one thing, I don’t think there is much to choose between the four Irish horses, an assessment which the betting pretty much agrees with, and the second complicating matter is that all five of these like to be ridden prominently.

Maybe the jockeys will draw lots in the weighing room to see who gets the easy lead, and the late betting will let us know around three minutes before the tape goes up…..

2.05 Doncaster – 7/1 Aberama Gold looks poised to strike again

There aren’t any horses ahead of the handicapper this week, so I thought I would do a new section of those running badly-in.

Step forward, Behind The Handicapper.

And one of those is Aberama Gold, who is 2lb out of the handicap here.

It seems to be a touch counter-intuitive to tip him at [7/1] then – he is that price in four places – but there are very good reasons to get with him.

He effectively runs off 85 here (as opposed to his future mark of 83) but he comes in here in good form, and he was rated 100 at the start of the year.

So the fact that he is 2lb wrong doesn’t deter me, especially as he has an excellent record here and he has a good pace set-up. And he shaped very well given his track position at Catterick last time.

His course form figures read 12232010, and those unplaced efforts came in the ultra-competitive Portland.

He won this race off 96 last season and I can see Hollie Doyle tucking him, sitting off the pace, and being produced late.

No hard luck stories, now Holls….

2.20pm Cheltenham – 16/1 Unanswered Prayers the top of my possibles list at 16/1

Now, this is one competitive 14-runner 3m1f handicap chase, and it is not a race that I am inclined to tip and bet in at this stage.

However, Unanswered Prayers is definitely number one on my possible (s) list at the generally available [16/1], including with AKBets.

It’ll be heartening to see Aucunrisque run well in the last at Cheltenham on Friday as Chris Gordon hasn’t had a winner since May.

Things are not as bad as that sounds, but it ain’t great.

Anyway, back to Unanswered Prayers.

He is only 1lb higher than when winning over 2m4f here in November (after which he went up to 133) and he probably ran his best race since over 3m at Kempton on May, the last time we saw him.

I suppose there is a slight stamina doubt about him over 3m1f around here in a well-run race (and he is one of the likely forward-goers) but I wouldn’t lay 16s myself.

I could well come back to him in an update to this column – probably on Saturday morning – but he is the current bet in the race if you want an interest here and now.

Broadway Boy is a very likely lad for this, but he is well covered at a top-priced [10/3].

2.40pm Doncaster – 16/1 Seaplane has Wimbledon Hawkeye to fear

The Group 1 Futurity Stakes has cut up a lot from the five-day stage, with 19 becoming eight.

Having leaned towards Seaplane on Monday, when he was 12s with 11 more potential rivals in the race, I suppose I really should be tipping him when he has drifted to 16s in a spot.

I would have preferred not to have seen him running in a first-time tongue-tie, as that clearly hints at a breathing issue.

Especially in potentially deep ground. But maybe it is only precautionary on day two of a soft-ground meeting.

I may relent and back him if I can get 16s on the day – more importantly, I want to see how the ground is riding at Donny on Friday – but I’ll sit tight for now, especially as I am increasingly coming round to the fact that form horse Wimbledon Hawkeye is overpriced at [7/2] in a place.

The case for Seaplane remains the same as it was on Monday, though.

He broke his duck on his third start in style over 7f in the soft at Newmarket and the clock suggested it was a Group-race performance, and Oliver Cole duly namechecked this race for him afterwards.

It was disappointing to see the runner-up humped at odds-on at Nottingham next time but the well-bred winning debutante that day could be a very smart filly, so it may be a mistake to beat him with that form-line.

However, it has to be said his earlier Ascot second could have worked out better too, with the winner Calla Lagoon beaten at Ponty on Monday and the third Too Soon an underwhelming (and costly) fourth in the Zetland.

The step up to 1m will definitely suit this Golden Horn half-brother to good stayers such as Sumo Sam and Sun God. In fact, his pedigree suggests he should blossom at a mile and beyond, which could be very useful in these conditions.

Yes, I ended up backing him….

2.55pm Cheltenham – 11/2 Zain Nights the likely lad but price is borderline

This is a Pertemps qualifier and there are new rules this year. Any horse that wins a qualifier will be guaranteed a run provided they are in the weights at the declaration stage, which should hopefully improve the competitiveness of the lead-up races.

That is to say slightly fewer non-jiggers, not that this is ever effectively policed.

This is certainly an open race, with 5s the field, and that brings in Gordon Elliott’s highly progressive The Wallpark, while the trainer also has another lively one in the shape of the 10yo Beacon Edge, 14s in a place.

This race has a lot of depth to it.

The two that I was drawn to were Zain Nights and Gowel Road, though I have to say the more I looked the more I thought their respective prices of [11/2] and [8/1] were nothing more than fair.

Zain Nights probably needs to get a move on up the handicap ladder to secure a March spot, as he is only rated 130 (though, remarkably, 129 would have you got in the race last year), but he is clearly going the right way and the trainer namechecked the Cheltenham handicap after he won a Pertemps-sponsored 16-runner 3m handicap hurdle at Haydock in May.

He has a lot to recommend him – he won here in May – but, overly-optimistically perhaps, I was hoping for a bigger price, especially as his record when fresh is poor.

That said, he is clearly the twice the horse he was back then over hurdles (though he was rated 90 on the Flat when with the Charltons), and I guess if you can back him at [5/1] each way, five places – as you can with one firm – then that is very good business (and the form of the Lucy Wadham stable is a positive, too).

But I can’t cherry-pick in this column to that betting degree, as much I would like to.

You can and should, though – if you can.

The more generally available [11/2] each way, four places, is something that I probably wouldn’t be first in the queue to lay, if truth be told.

3.10pm Newbury – 20/1 Afentiko could swim best here

I don’t think I am in a massive rush to bet at Newbury on Saturday. It’ll be interesting to see the times of the races there on Friday.

The going stick here suggests the ground is pretty desperate – it is currently heavy, soft in places – but at least their Friday meeting passed an inspection and not a great deal of rain is now expected (maybe up to 4mm).

The four in here with proven heavy ground form in this country are Yaroogh, Make You Smile, Bob Mali and Star Anthem, but this is going to specialist slop stuff (the current going stick reading is 3.4, having been 3.0 on Monday), so who knows which of these 2yos will sink or swim?

I am not paying it to find out, but I was mildly surprised to see Afentiko a general 20/1 chance after a good effort over 1m in France last time, in conditions which Timeform called soft (it was officially heavy).

This is a better race and he needs to improve, but his proven stamina over further than 7f is a big positive here.

I’ll actually probably chuck at a few quid at 20s, being honest – in fact, I have – but it is not a race for meaningful sums given the ground.

The Saturday morning going stick reading (3.2, from 3.4) suggests the ground has deepened.

3.30pm Cheltenham – 7/2 Givemefive could give the favourite a fright

Bottler’secret may carry an 8lb penalty here but he is head and shoulders above these on the evidence to date, and that brings in his Grade 2 win at Fairyhouse and his subsequent second to Kargesse in the Grade 1 at Punchestown.

Whether he will be fully revved up here is maybe a doubt, and that is the question you have to ask yourself if you are considering backing him at the generally available evens, including with AKBets.

Not for me, unsurprisingly.

He may be dominant form-wise but he isn’t a stand-out on the clock and we are clearly dealing with horses with the scope to improve a great deal as 4yo hurdlers.

As the betting suggests, 7/2 chance Givemefive could be the chief beneficiary of any fitness chinks in the jolly.

He has 14 ½ lengths to find with Bottler’secret on their Fairyhouse form in April, but I got the impression Harry Derham was a touch disappointed with the horse after he won his first two starts, such was the regard he held him in.

Derham (11 winners at a 24 per cent strike rate this season) will have his primed for this after a good second on the Flat at Haydock last month – the third, beaten miles, has won since – and I reckon he could give the favourite plenty of trouble here.

I’d rather back him at [7/2] than the favourite at evens.

Just about anyway.

3.45pm Newbury – 14/1 God’s Window could be a pace angle

These valuable 1m4f Group 3 races (this one is worth 75k) need to be binned off.

Same faces, small fields, and limited betting interest.

Al Aasy has faced just 18 rivals in four of these races this season and, while it is easy money for him, win or lose, it is a turn-off for the rest of us.

He is [11/10] to get back on the winning trail here.

If there is an angle, it could be 14s chance God’s Window getting an uncontested lead on ground he handles  – if he doesn’t blow the start again, that is – but I have no need to get involved here.

Good luck, all.

 

BETS

Weveallbeenvcaught at [9/1] in 1.10pm Cheltenham. Available in two places (10s in two spots, so take that if you can). The [17/2] and [8/1] is also fine.

Aberama Gold at [7/1] in 2.05pm Doncaster. Available in four places.

 

GOING/WEATHER – updated at 7.45am Saturday

 

CHELTENHAM

Going:  Good

Going stick: 6.6 as at 6.30am Saturday

Watering: 3-5mm applied selectively to maintain good ground (presumably doing this daily)

Weather:  Dry

 

DONCASTER (got softer, as per going stick – 6.1 into 5.7)

Going: Soft (1.4mm overnight)

Going stick: 5.7 as at 7.45am Saturday – was 6.1 on Friday

Weather:  Dry

 

NEWBURY (ground has deepened according to going stick reading on Saturday – 3.4 into 3.2)

Going: Heavy, soft in places

Going stick: 3.2 at 5.30am Saturday

Weather:  Dry

 

SUPPLEMENTED

Nebras (for 17.5k) in 2.40pm Doncaster

 

BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER (that is to say, they are out of the handicap – none Ahead Of The Handicapper in Saturday’s ITV races)

 

1.10pm Cheltenham: Andy’s Flame (5lb)

2.20pm Cheltenham: The Short Go (1lb)

2.55pm Cheltenham: Classic Concorde (1lb), Hardy Boy (6lb)

2.05pm Doncaster: Aberama Gold (2lb), Je Ne Sais Quo (3lb)

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

 

Christian Williams cheekpieces 8-40 (since 2019)  – Weveallbeencaught, 1.10pm Cheltenham (IMPRESSIVE STAT ALERT)

 

Henry De Bromhead cheekpieces 9-90 (2016) – Senior Chief, 2.20pm Cheltenham

 

Richard Bandey cheekpieces 1-7 (2019) – Theatre Man, 4.10pm Cheltenham

 

Samuel Drinkwater hood 2-16 (2016) – Aeroplane Blonde, 4.40pm Cheltenham

 

Ralph Beckett blinkers 39-251 (2009) – Salt Bay, 3.45pm Newbury

 

John Ryan blinkers 5-34 (2010) – La Bellota, 1.30pm Doncaster

 

 

PACE MAPS (manually done)

 

1.10pm Cheltenham: Will Carver?, Guard Your Dreams?, Lisnamult Lad?, Doughmore Boy, Marv Michael, Andys Flame?, Weveallbeencaught?

1.30pm Doncaster: Arctic Voyage, King’s Call?, La Bellota?

1.45pm Cheltenham: Donnie De Vito (prom), Fine Margin, Intense Approach, Millforce (prom), Hauraki Golf

2.05pm Doncaster: The Bell Conductor, Venture Capital, King Of Stars, Jer Batt (prom), Solar Aclaim (prom)

2.20pm Cheltenham: Broadway Boy, Kansas City Star, Unanswered Prayers

2.40pm Doncaster: Delacroix?, Detain, Royal Playwright, Seaplane

2.55pm Cheltenham: Botox Has, Beacon Edge, The Wallpark, Gowel Road, Al Gasparo, Cruz Control, Classic Concorde

3.10pm Newbury: Afentiko, Benevento, Star Anthem, Yaroogh

3.30pm Cheltenham: Bottler’secret, Givemefive, Latin Verse?, Royal Way, Hasten Slowly

3.45pm Newbury (no obvious pace): God’s Window?

 

 

TRAINERFORM (ITV races, manually done;  includes a “Trainer (s) in Focus”) – updated 7.45am Saturday

 

******TRAINER (S) IN FOCUS*****

 

John McConnell

He can be a streaky trainer, and he certainly is on one of his more barren spells.

Going into Friday’s racing (in which he has seven runners, so keep an eye out there), he has only had one winner from a raft of runners this month.

He is no stranger to success at Cheltenham, and at this meeting, and a lot of his horses have been going off at very big prices- so I wouldn’t be definitely going overboard about this angle – but he won’t be entirely happy with the form of his yard.

He has four runners at Cheltenham on Saturday.

It could all turn with another winner though – and Anna Bunina ran a cracker in the opener at Cheltenham on Friday – which is what Mick Appleby will be hoping after a much-needed success on Thursday night.

Likewise, Clive Cox and Chris Gordon (the latter’s Aucunrisque traded at odds-on before weakening late on in the last at Cheltenham on Friday) could do with a winner, too. And the same is certainly true of Michael Dods.

 

 

 

Good:, Nigel Twiston-Davies (another great day on Friday, so nearer excellent), Olly Murphy, Ben Pauling (another two winners on Wednesday), Henry De Bromhead (very good), John and The Real Slim Thady Gosden, Ralph Beckett (relentlessly good Ralph), John Ryan, Dan Skelton (three winners on Wednesday, and more since), Nicky Henderson, Ben Case (three of his last four runners have won), Willie Mullins, Kim Bailey, Harry Derham,  Jack Jones, Raphael Freire, Dominic French Davis, Brian Meehan, Simon and Ed Crisford (another winner on Friday), Charlie Appleby, James Owen, Martin Keighley, Henry Daly

Fair:  Cian Collins  (winner on Friday), Gavin Cromwell, Adrian Keatley, Jonjo and A J O’Neill, Ian Patrick Donoghue, Christian Williams (maybe more moderate), William Haggas, David O’Meara, Iain Jardine, Kevin Ryan (going well now, and probably nearer good), Grant Tuer (edging towards moderate maybe),  Emma Lavelle, Sam England, Jane Williams, Gary and Josh Moore, Tom Lacey, Lucinda Russell, Lucy Wadham (edging towards good), Harriet Dickin, Paul and Oliver Cole, Ollie Sangster, Hugo Palmer, Aidan O’Brien (fair, for him anyway), Richard Fahey, Gemma Tutty (28-1 winner on Thursday), Craig Lidster, Rod Millman, John Butler, Michael Herrington, Jessie Harrington, Andrew Balding, Hamad Al Jehani (winner on Friday), Joe Tizzard

Moderate:  Gordon Elliott (despite 4-6 winner on Thursday, and 11-4 winner on Friday), Ross O’Sullivan, Michael Dods (few have run okay but definitely moderate with no winner for three weeks), Mick Appleby (stopped the rot with a 11-1 winner on Thursday, so maybe the tide has finally turned), John McConnell (a lot have been going off at huge prices, though), Chris Gordon (though one beaten in a photo and a lot of big-priced horses, so not too troubling – though I imagine it is for him, winnerless since May, especially after Aucunrisque’s late falter on Friday after trading odds-on), Seamus Mullins, Anthony Charlton, Tom Clover (needs a winner), Clive Cox, David and Nicola Barron (though a good second recently)

Don’t know (too few runners): Deborah Cole, Sam Drinkwater, Richard Hobson, David Brace