By Tony Calvin - 9 July 2026
IF you like your fields to have depth, then look away now…
I imagine we will get the “quality not quantity” line wheeled out a lot in the next 48 hours, but Thursday’s ITV races just underline how important – nay, crucial – Aidan O’Brien is to high-end UK racing.
It is pointless courses and sponsors throwing big money at many of these races when we know we don’t have the horse population to adequately service them – especially when Aidan largely stays at home (he has sent one over for the fillies maiden at 4.10pm).
It also looks very unappetising betting fare at first glance.
We lost three at the overnight stage in this 1m5f Group 3 Bahrain Trophy – including Amo’s Ancient Egypt, who I think was the slight ante-post favourite – and five line up for this 200k prize.
200 bags!
Prize money aside, this is actually a decent Group 3 and it is easy to make a case for all five at their current odds (the Derby fifth Alderman is fourth in at 5s, for example, though that Epsom form is not looking the strongest).
They watered the track heavily last week – though that didn’t stop Tattycoram winning in a course record time – and have put on another 30mm since (15mm on Sunday and Tuesday) and maybe they’ll give it another 15mm for luck ahead of their three-day meeting on Wednesday (update – they are going to, see below).
In these circumstances, being on a front-runner who grabs the stands’ rail is no bad thing, and maybe Ryan Moore will look to make all on Nil Bua Gan Dua, as I couldn’t see any other pace in the race.
Of course, he needs to improve on the bare form of his fourth in the 1m2f Golden Gates off a mark of 97, but that’s not out of the question, especially if those forcing tactics are adopted.
I have had a bullseye on him at 9s, now my only bet on Thursday.
I appreciate the 1m5f trip is an unknown, and a definite stretch on pedigree – maybe an in-running lay may be called for – but Moore will be alive to that if he wants to try to dictate.
And I am taking it as a positive that the trainer is running him instead of his other five-day entry, the 1m4f King George V winner Enceladus.
As with all ARC tracks, we have no idea of the extent of the necessary watering at Doncaster.
“Watering to ensure it doesn’t go too quick” is their somewhat inadequate line.
Seven runners in this 7f 2yo novice, and they have just four racecourse starts between them.
Charlie Appleby will be very keen to have a big July Cup meeting after a pretty underwhelming season so far, and he has plenty of Thursday darts to throw, including two in here.
He has two of the three newcomers in the race – we have four once-raced horses – and jockey bookings suggest Ottoman Chief is the number one at home. The Frankel colt cost 2.2m last year and, while the first-time hood is a bit of a worry first time out, Appleby is very good with this headgear.
Not many firms have priced this up as at 1.56pm (three in fact), but he is the early [7/4] favourite.
His other runner, Quest For Stars, cost a mere 700,000 guineas at the sales last year. He is 8s in a place.
It is not really my kind of race but I am bit surprised Bulletsnap is available at 10s here given the promise of his Goodwood third on debut.
I’d say that is unlikely to last but this is a guessing game, in truth.
Karl Burke’s newcomer Arctic Force was another costly purchase last year, and Andrew Balding’s Amir Lehbab probably showed the best form of the raced brigade when third at Newbury last month, though Night Star shaped very well in behind him and he could easily reverse the form.
Persian Spring is a NR as at 8.42am (bad scope).
Now, no-one is going to try to sugercoat this. This is an awful turn-out of four the 125k Group 2 July Stakes, having lost seven entries at the overnight stage.
Great news for the trainers and owners who have stood their ground, with Coventry Stakes runner-up Adaay Of Scarlett the form standard-setter here ahead of the Woodcote winner Hickory Lad and Norfolk Stakes also-ran Persian Spring.
York winner Inner City Blues hasn’t come close to achieving what Adaay Of Scarlett has (or Hickory Lad) but the 900,000 euros Breeze-Up purchase is undoubtedly the sexy one, and they clearly knew what they had before that Knavesmire success as he went off at [4/9] there.
The second and third won next time out, and the fourth failed by only a neck on his subsequent start, so maybe he doesn’t have as much to find as I intimated above.
But his potential is more than factored into his general price of [4/6], with [4/5] in a place (three firms, one outfit).
Appleby has only had 13 juvenile runners this season, but six have won.
On all known form, Adaay Of Scarlett is overpriced at [9/4].
Eight in this 80k 3yo 1m4f novice, and the winner gets “free initial entry into the St Leger.”
Now, all eight runners here are going to have rocket form-wise, in a very short space of time, to be involved in that Classic, but there are some promising sorts in here all the same.
Of course, in the case of the 4,300,000 guineas yearling purchase Poker, not as promising as some would like…
He may well win and claw back £41,232 for the owner, but I can see why Joseph O’Brien’s Count Bezhukov, a 1m2f winner at the Curragh in May, is edging the early betting at a general [9/4] and 2s, though there is [11/4] in a place.
The Wootton Bassett colt has the potential and the pedigree, but he also has a 6lb penalty for that Curragh win.
Not a race that makes much betting appeal, with the dead-eight a danger to potential each-way backers. If you forced me then I’d say Brave Hunter made most appeal at 11s, with the first-time cheekpieces a possible prompt for improvement after a solid handicap run last time.
MY quiet betting day has virtually been silenced with the news that Advertised was pulled out at 2.38pm on Wednesday with a bruised foot.
We have a far healthier field of 14 for this 100k 6f handicap, but that is still six shy of the maximum.
The pace map (see below) doesn’t tell us a great deal, but I thought Advertised, in 12, was a big enough price at a general 33s to get involved in a usual tricky sprint handicap.
He was drawn on the wrong side of the track when eventually well-beaten in Thunder Call and Red Spells Danger York race last time (he travelled really well for a long way though, on his first start after being gelded), so a 2lb drop for that could be generous and exploitable.
He is now only 1lb higher then when an excellent 1/2-length second on the Rowley course in April, just three starts ago, and that was a strong 0-100 handicap which has worked out well, with the third, fourth and fifth all winning since.
If he reproduces that run – and on another day he may well have won there had Jamie Spencer not looked more than a bit awkward in the closing stages – he will not be far away here.
And the current form of the Grant Tuer stable is certainly no negative, as he was 6 from 17 going into Tuesday’s racing.
And he is also 2 from 8 on the July course.
I have thrown a few quid on him at 33s, and again at 28s. I make him the best bet on what is clearly a pretty soulless betting ITV programme.
Tenability is a NR as at 8.23am (coughing).
The course would have been relieved to get five runners for this 165k 1m4f Group 2 as there were only six in at the five-day stage.
The only no–show was Amo’s Ghostwriter.
Charlie Appleby has presumably put Arabian Crown in here to ensure a decent pace for the legend that is the 8yo Rebel’s Romance, who heads the betting at [11/10].
Of course, the veteran is the one to beat, even under a 3lb penalty – though we haven’t seen him since the end of February, so maybe he has had an issue or two – but the [2/1] second favourite Convergent is obviously a big threat if that dire run in that deteriorating Epsom ground hasn’t bottomed him for the time being.
He really looked a good one when winning on his return at Newbury, and it is 7s bar the front two.
However, again, it’s another easy race to swerve.
Advertised each-way at a generally available 33s in 3pm at Newmarket, and 28s is fine – get the best place terms your accounts allow (comically the first going five places make him 14s). – NON-RUNNER
GOING: Good to firm (good in places)
THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry forecast with daytime temperatures due to reach 30c by Thursday before reducing slightly to 28c for Friday and Saturday.
WATERING: 30mm applied between Sunday and Tuesday. Further 15mm applied on Wednesday.
Weather forecast (yr.no as at 6.31am Thursday): dry, hot and sunny up to 32 degrees
GOING: Good to firm
THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry, bright and sunny through the day. Temps 30-32C during racing. Gentle northerly breeze. Hot weather provisions will be in place for this meeting
WATERING: “Watering to ensure it doesn’t go too quick”
Weather forecast (yr.no as at 6.31am Thursday): hot dry and sunny up to 32 degrees
Charlie Appleby hood; Ottoman Chief, 2.10pm Doncaster: 34-110 (since 2013)
Ismail Mohammed and Jose Santos cheekpieces; Brave Hunter, 2.45pm Doncaster; 0-1 (2026)
Mohammed 4-39 on his own (2016)
1.50pm Newmarket: Nil Bua Gan Dua (drawn 1)
2.10pm Doncaster: NONE but obviously little/no evidence to go on
2.25pm Newmarket: Adaay Of Scarlett (2), Hickory Lad (4) – Persian Spring is a NR
2.45pm Doncaster: Shoof Baeed (7), Hatteen (6), Poker (1), Sea And Sun (4)
3pm Newmarket: May Angel? (1), Jazl (2), Red Spells Danger (11), Pilu (13), Sea Cookie (prom – 10) – Advertised NR
3.35pm Newmarket: Arabian Crown (2), Rebel’s Romance (prom – 1) – Tenability is a NR
Good: Joseph O’Brien (double on Wednesday), Phillip Makin (tiny sample – 1 from 3 on Flat), Grant Tuer (excellent), Roger Varian, Simon and Ed Crisford, Ed Dunlop, Kevin Philippart De Foy, Ed Bethell (double on Tuesday)
Fair: Richard Hannon, Charlie Appleby, Charlie Johnston (double on Wednesday), John and Thady Gosden (fair/good), Hugo Palmer, William Haggas (fair/good – 12/1 winner on Wednesday), Tim Easterby (double on Wednesday), Ed Walker, Tom Clover (fair/good), Andrew Balding, Kevin Ryan, Jamie Osborne, Roger Teal (very small sample), Karl Burke, Roger Fell (smallish sample; no winner), Mohammed/Santos (fair/moderate), David Simcock
1.50pm Newmarket – 15/2 Evanesco could get the run of the race It’s more thin…
STATS AND INFO SECTION 1.COURSE DETAILS NEWMARKET (15mm watered on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday –…
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