TONY CALVIN: The Thursday late play – an 9/1 chance in last at Chester makes considerable appeal

4.45pm Chester – Very sweet on 9/1 chance My Kinda Ghaiy

You may have noticed that I am not a massive fan of betting at Chester – and I am surely not alone there, so I don’t envy those who have to tip at the meeting – but I did find My Kinda Ghaiy very interesting indeed at [9/1] in the 4.45pm there today.

That is available in nine places as this goes live.

Personally, I have backed him at 8s+ on Betfair (currently 10.5 there as this goes live).

Granted, it may have been because he wears first-time cheekpieces and I am a sucker for a headgear stat – especially when there is a story behind them.

Now, trainer Hugo Palmer is not especially great with this angle, but he isn’t bad, and this horse hails from a family with winning form in this headgear.

And Palmer, who trains just down the road, knows that all too well.

My Kinda Ghaiy’s half-brothers include a horse of Palmer’s, 1m4f scorer Red October – I had to hunt for that – who won four times in cheekpieces (including first time up) and other winning relatives who have worn the headgear include Charlie Appleby’s Group 2/1m6f scorer Endless Time, who also won when tried in those initial accoutrements (I first heard Nick Luck say that and I am forever indebted to him as there are only so many times you can say headgear and cheekpieces…)

Both of those won as punted [5/2] favourites.

Of course, other relatives were tried in them and failed, but we don’t want to ruin the story, do we?

Back to My Kinda Ghaiy himself.

He has raced over 1m on all three starts to date since making his debut in February, and has been gelded since we last saw him on April 5, and the key to his winning chance here could be the step up 1m4f.

He is by Ghaiyyath (as the name suggests) out of a mare who stayed 2m, and  he is related to a host of 1m4f and 1m6f winners (as well as a 3m hurdles scorer).

Off a lowly opening handicap mark of 75 – seven of his siblings were better than that – he has tremendous upside and 9s is an excellent price to find out if that assessment is correct.

The favourite Lady Vivian could be very troublesome given her defeat of Caspi Star last time, as could Way Of Stars, and you never know what you will bump into in these 3yo handicaps – so I wouldn’t be going overboard with the betting – and a dead-eight means I am reluctant to play each-way, but win-only at 9s is the way to go.

I may also back him without the favourite too, when more of those lines appear, and possibly each-way close to the off if all eight stand.

We are probably looking at 3s or [7/2] there.

I do like his chance, albeit a lot of guesswork is involved.

UPDATE: The field is indeed down to seven runners as Spirit Of Jura is out at 2.37pm as she is lame. And My Kindha Ghaiy is currently very weak at 15.5 on the exchange (as at 4pm), and 12s, fixed odds.

I have gone in again for my sins.

Tentatively.

Let’s not hope he doesn’t get chinned by his stablemate….

BET

My Kinda Ghaiy at [9/1] in 4.45pm at Chester. Available in nine places.

(maybe look to back him without the favourite too, as in copy).

READ THE REST OF THE THURSDAY COLUMN HERE (you may have to cut and paste): https://tips.akbets.co.uk/tony-calvin-thursdays-stats-and-info-from-chester-and-huntingdon/