TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY stats and info – and copy for all seven ITV races in here now

1.50pm Sandown – Willing to risk Getreadytorumble again but not at a general 8s (live 8.04am Friday)

Words Of Truth is a big NR at 9.49am (bad scope). Big Rule 4.

Asfoora would probably spank these if returning to her best – she has won three Group 1s since coming up from Australia – but Sandown’s sprint track can be a tricky one to negotiate and the 2026 Aussie model has yet to reach the giddy winning heights of previous years in three starts this term.

But there was obviously a lot more promise in her two-length seventh in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot last time – notably with the blinkers back on for the first time in 2026  – and the [11/4] that was briefly available in a place on Thursday morning has shortened into a general 2s (11/5 in one spot).

That’s a walkaway price.

Last year’s winner Rumstar and the 3yo Words Of Truth are the chief form threats, as their prices around 3s suggest, but I initially thought maybe Getreadytorumble was worth one more chance at the opening double-figure odds.

He hasn’t kicked on since his luckless third to subsequent Royal Ascot Group 1 winner Mission Central at Naas first time out, but he hasn’t run that badly on either occasion, and I sense there is a big run in him in this lesser Group 3 grade.

But I’ll probably sit this one out, especially as draw 10 of 10 will present its challenges and he is now 9s tops in a place and a general 8s (he was 12s and 11s yesterday)

As is often the case, the best prices are clipped through Thursday and many tend to drift back out on Friday afternoon/Saturday.

So I will wait to see what his price does in the next 24 hours.

I suspect this is Asfoora’s to lose though, and she has drifted to 7/2s+ on Saturday morning, even with the NR. That looks big.

2.05pm – Shortening Lopeo now his price (10.57am)

A common theme of this column will be disappearing prices – or my usual moaning, if you will – and the 7s and [13/2] about Lopeo has turned into a general 4s (9/2 with one outfit), which is not ideal.

This seven-runner 1m6f handicap didn’t make that much appeal before that  – and I wouldn’t be a fan of betting at a heavily-watered July course, full stop – but that probably sealed the Kevin Pullein deal here.

Recommendation: No Bet.

Lopeo is from the in-form David Menuisier stable though (more of him below) and the lightly-raced sort comes in here in solid form, so a reproduction of his recent efforts may suffice here.

And if it does ride easier than the official good to firm ground, that probably won’t be any hardship to him either given his 2yo success.

But it’s a race easily left alone now.

In fact, even that shortened 4s Lopeo was good, it seems – he is just [5/2] on Saturday morning.

2.25pm  – Tribal Chief has outstanding claims but 4s? (8.41am)

IMPORTANT: Down to 14 now, so changed each-way terms.

Cerulean Bay is a NR as at 4.16pm (bad scope), drawn 17 of 17, and Beagle Bay (10.07pm – going). Followed by River King at 11.03 (lame).

Sizeable Rule 4s.

A full field of 17 (now 15) for this 1m handicap (see below for balloted out horses) , so there will be inevitable bumper cars and hard-luck stories here.

But one horse stood out for me when I looked at this race on Thursday morning – and unfortunately, once again, the market has already spoken in his favour and I am not sure his current price of 4s is anything resembling a gift given the potential for trouble, as outlined above, from his draw in seven.

The horse in question is Tribal Chief, now a general 4s chance having been [11/2] in a place and 5s yesterday.

I think he has an outstanding chance if getting the breaks, though.

David Menuisier can be a streaky trainer but he has his team in top order at the moment and how his horse has gotten away with not being raised an ounce for finishing third in the Lincoln, and occupying the same place in the Victoria Cup last time, is beyond me.

He beat 43 rivals in those two hugely competitive handicaps, and this looks an easier assignment.

The way he finished off his race over 7f at Ascot last time suggests the step back up to 1m is a huge positive.

He has actually been taken out of his last two intended starts at this course (including in this race last season) because of the quick ground but I doubt that’ll be happening again – as he subsequently won on good to firm at Goodwood (off just a 3lb lower mark than this) and Timeform called it good to firm at Ascot last time.

The 4s is borderline, though I really do think only an ill-wind can prevent him going very, very close here.

2.40pm Newmarket – 9/1 may not be so Tatty each-way (11.35am)

Tiffany could eat these for breakfast – sorry – as a 112-rated mare with four placed efforts in Group 1 company to her name and 11lb and more in hand of her rivals on official figures.

But, although she has form on quickish ground, the going may not be ideal for her (watering included perhaps) and a first-time visor when you are being asked to take evens, is a question mark you could do without.

The obvious play here seems to be Tattycoram each-way at 9s.

All nine stood their ground at the overnight stage here – so each-way punters have a non-runner to play with – and I was taken by the way Tattycoram stuck to her guns and pulled out more to win at Goodwood on her return.

That was a career-best effort – and it backed up what her trainer said in an interview earlier in the season that she was an improved model physically this year – and she could need to progress a further stone here to win if Tiffany runs to form, but I’ll take my chances win and place at 9s.

I just have done.

It’s a decent bet, I think. The 9s is available in three places as this goes live, and 17/2 and 8s is okay too.

3pm – Can Saffie nick it from the front on 33/1 Lizzie? (9.01am)

Pacific Mission NR as at 9.28am (lame). Big Rule 4.

I don’t have a punting opinion in this 1m fillies’ Listed race.

I probably shouldn’t even mention it given Thursday’s 50s and 40s about Spinning Lizzie lasted a few seconds, but I can actually see the outsider (now 33s best) outrunning her price here.

There isn’t a lot of pace in here (see pace map below) so I think it makes sense for Saffie Osborne to go on and try to make it from trap three.

The filly isn’t an habitual forward-goer and can miss the start, but she has run two of her better races from the front (both in Group 3 company), stays further than a mile, and a cute waiting ride on the lead could pay dividends here.

Put it this way, nicking this is the only way the horse can win this on ratings against the likes of Pacific Mission.

The stable broke a massive losing run with a winner at Kempton on Thursday night, for what it is worth.

Well it isn’t a negative anyway.

3.15pm Newmarket – Leader expected to be a class apart (11.51am)

I don’t think any horse has impressed me more visually (and in their respective grade obviously) than Klassleader at York in May and I wouldn’t like to lay him at a best-priced [13/8].

And it isn’t often I’d say that.

Simply put, I think this is a very weak 12-runner handicap for a 125k pot, and the rest could be playing for places.

The manner in which Klassleader took a decent field apart, despite not everything going to plan, at York screamed a Group-class animal, so I am not bothered that he was raised 8lb to a mark of 98 for it.

In fact, the York third Plage De Havre (9lb better off for 5 1/4 lengths and winner of this race when it was at Haydock last season) could be his biggest rival once again.

Surely, only that well-watered July course can stop Klassleader, as he looks to pick up this hefty pot en route to a crack at the Ebor.

But this track carries a Wealth Warning.

AND FINALLY THE BIG ONE….

3.35pm Eclipse – Will this get down and dirty tactics-wise? (live at 12.39pm, Thursday)

Well, Aidan was true to his Wednesday word and confirmed both Constitution River and Hawk Mountain for the Coral-Eclipse on Thursday morning – let’s hope they both run now, as the ground promises to be rapido – but old habits die hard and he couldn’t resist throwing in pacemaker-cum-spoiler, the 98-rated Flushing Meadows, into the mix, too (if not Causeway).

Then again, Wathnan Racing may well have forked out 50k for surprise supplementary entry King’s Gambit to get on the front end to help Gethin – King’s Gambit is normally a hold-up horse but he did go on in the four-runner 2024 Sky Bet York Stakes – so this could get very down and dirty from a tactical point of view.

Let’s hope it is not a big talking point after the race.

It was interesting that Joseph O’Brien didn’t confirm his usual forward-goer Galen for this.

Anyway, there could be a sticky, early bunfight here and I don’t have a strong betting opinion (at the current odds) as to who will be sitting in the winning chair when the music stops.

Favourite shortening

Constitution River is the deserving favourite after overcoming his wide draw to beat Hawk Mountain (best at 7s now) 3/4-length in the French Derby (A Boy Named Susie 2 lengths back in fourth after a troubled passage) but [11/10] is probably tight enough, all things considered.

That said, he will be evens before long.

As at 8.08am Friday morning, that evens has become [10/11] tops with three firms.

I have a lot of time for the progressive Gethin at 5s and Saddadd at [15/2], but is this really a betting race?

Susie at 9s? Stable form is a concern

In fact, looking at the Chantilly run last time, you could easily say A Boy Named Susie is the pick of the current odds at [9/1], available in three places but effectively one – he is a point bigger to pennies on the exchange on Friday morning – but you would certainly like to see Donnacha O’Brien have a winner in the next 48 hours if you back him, though he has had five seconds from a decent sample in the last fortnight (he is on a losing run of 31).

He throws seven darts on Thursday and Friday (UPDATE: make that a losing run of 38 after Friday)

Anyway, hopefully all seven runners go now – one shy of the ideal, obviously – and may the best horse win.

Not the luckiest.

BEST BET (exceptionally quiet betting day for me on horse racing)

Tattycoram at 9s each-way in 2.40pm at Newmarket

STATS AND INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

SANDOWN

GOING

Round: Good to firm, good in places – Going stick 6.9, Saturday 7.30am

Sprint: Good, good to firm in places  – Going stick , 6.5 Saturday 7.30am

Soil Moisture 44% Round and 41% Sprint at 7am Saturday

Rails: Round Course rail on innermost configuration, with distances as advertised. Sprint Course rail 2 yards in from Far Side.

Stalls: Sprint Course – Far Side (rail 2 yards in) Remainder – Inside

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: 7.6mm rain morning of Tuesday 23 June. 0.5mm rain early Saturday morning. Dry and increasingly warm since. 26 degrees Thursday. 28 degrees at 5.30pm Friday. 28 degrees expected again Saturday.

WATERING: 5mm Saturday. 5mm Monday. 5mm Tuesday. 5mm to Round Course Wednesday. 2.5mm to 5mm selective watering Thursday. 5mm applied to Home Straight and Back Straight of Round Course, and 2.5mm to Sprint Course on Friday evening.

Weather forecast (yr.no as at 7.25am Friday): Dry, hot and sunny

NEWMARKET (30mm in total watered on Tuesday and Thursday – and 6mm on Friday)

GOING: Good to firm

Rails: Far Side Course in use.

Stalls: Centre

GOING STICK: 7.0, Sat 6am (was 7.5 Wednesday)

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Forecast: Dry day with sunny spells, max daytime temp of 26c.

WATERING: 15mm applied on Tuesday and Thursday. Further 6mm applied on Friday.

Weather forecast (yr.no as at 6.57am Saturday): Dry, hot and sunny

2. BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back on these)

2.25pm Sandown: Dante’s Lad, Laureate Crown, Stem, Walsingham (for some reason bottom weight Capall Rasa wasn’t confirmed, so everyone has done their money there)

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

George Boughey cheekpieces; Sharpen, 2.40pm Newmarket; 15-116 (since 2020)

Sir Mark Prescott visor; Tiffany; 2.40pm Newmarket; 13-76 (2009)

George Scott cheekpieces; Al Aali, 3.15pm Newmarket; 9-84 (2016)

Eve Johnson Houghton blinkers; Palmeira 1.50pm Sandown; 12-129 (2009)

Karl Burke cheekpieces; Liberty Lane 2.25pm Sandown;  19-213 (2016)

John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces; Sacred Ground, 3pm Sandown; 16-146 (2021)

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.50pm Sandown: Partisan Hero (drawn 4), Asfoora (prom – 8), Shagraan (prom – 1), Luna A Inbhir Nis (3) – Words Of Truth NR

2.05pm Newmarket: Magnetude (3) Mythical Bay (5), Hard To Believe (2)

2.25pm Sandown: Balmacara (16), Classic (5), Hard Endeavor (9), Liberty Lane (10) – Cerulean Bay, River King and Beagle Bay are NRs

2.40pm Newmarket: Tattycoram (9), Tiffany (8), Caught U Sleeping (prom – 6)

3pm Sandown (uncontested lead up for grabs): Act Of Kindness (2), Spinning Lizzie (3) – Pacific Mission NR 

3.15pm Newmarket: Claymore (1), Burdett Road? (2),  Fierce Fortitude (prom – 10), Sportingsilvermine (prom – 5)

3.35pm Sandown:  Gethin (prom 1),  Constitution River (3), Flushing Meadows (likely pacemaker/spoiler you’d have thought – 7), Hawk Mountain (2), King’s Gambit (pacemaker? – 4)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: David Menuisier, James Owen, Iain Jardine, Jane Chapple-Hyam (another winner on Thursday), George Scott, Clive Cox, James Fanshawe (7-4 winner on Thursday), Tom Clover, Ian Williams (double on Friday), Eve Johnson Houghton (20-1 and 8-1 winners on Friday)

Fair: Dylan Cunha, Andrew Balding, George Boughey, Ralph Beckett (fair/good – 12-1 and 9-2 winners on Thursday), Charlie Johnston (9-1 winner on Thursday), Karl Burke, Alan King , Roger Varian, Kevin Philippart De Foy (12-1 winner on Thursday), John and Thady Gosden, David O’Meara, Sir Mark Prescott, Noel Meade, William Haggas (quiet for him),  Jack Channon, Richard Spencer, Jonathan Portman, Katie Scott (probably moderate), Charlie Appleby, Hugo Palmer, James Tate (fair/good), Ed Walker, Stan Moore, Edward Smyth-Osbourne, Aidan O’Brien, Harry Charlton, Owen Burrows (0 from 8 but many have run well), Richard Hannon (13-2 and 11-2 winners on Thursday – and another on Friday), Newland and Insole (welcome 5-1 winner on Thursday night), David Loughnane (though 7-2 winner in the last at Beverley on Friday night),

Moderate: Brian Meehan, Henry Dwyer (sample of three, so a “don’t know” really…),  Donnacha O’Brien (no winners from last 38 runners)