By Tony Calvin - 31 January 2026
Leopardstown has passed the morning inspection. They’ll be some walking wounded at the races after yesterday’s day on the piss, but an early one before setting off for the track will settle the shakes/head/nerves and set you up nicely for round two (or three).
Musselburgh dried to good to soft yesterday. Most in Dublin will be waking up with mouths resembling the Sahara…
12.55pm Musselburgh: Mossy Fen Road opened at 4/7 on Friday and is now 3/10 (or 30/100 is you prefer), and as short as 2/9. Captain Hugo 5s from 11/4.
1.10pm Leopardstown: Final Demand is into 3/10 from 2/5. Rushmount is a big NR in here, as we are now down to four runners.
1.25pm Musselburgh: Dedicated Hero is 15/8 from 9/4
1.40pm Leopardstown: Not a great deal of movement here (not something that a lot of people waking up this morning could say with any certainty after a barrel of the black stuff), One of the first-time hood stats (see below) Le Divin Enfant has been cut from 20s.
1.55pm Musselburgh: Koukeo is 6/4 from 2s. It remains to be seen if Blue d’Enfer (14s) and Denemethy (7s) go again after running yesterday; Rule 4s if they don’t. Denemethy is a NR as at 8.21am (not eaten up), followed by Bleu d’Enfer at 9.08am (going)
2.10pm Leopardstown: Found A Fifty (something that plenty will be hoping to discover in a random pocket after blowing today’s racing money on the piss yesterday) was 18s in a place on Friday and is now 15/2 best.
2.30pm Musselburgh: Magna Victor won nicely yesterday (carries a 7lb penalty) and is 6s into 7/2 – and set to get shorter perhaps. It remains to be seen if he runs (may have pulled up stiff this morning, unlike half of Dublin, who would have been very loose) but firms were sleeping on the job leaving him at 6s and 11/2 after that win late yesterday afternoon. He is now a NR as at 8.44am (double declaration). I wish connections had pulled him out earlier; he was 9/4 by the time he was withdrawn.
The G Wizard is another shortener; 12s and 10s on Friday, he is into 9/2 tops.
2.45pm Leopardstown: Ile Atlantique was still 16s in a place at 5.56pm yesterday (generally 12s, though 14s in a spot, too) but is now a mere 6s. And, no, i don’t think Tony Bloom can get on the day before…
3.05pm Musselburgh: Nowt doing here at the moment, Magna Sam is a NR, so we are down to just seven here and changed each-way terms.
3.20pm Leopardstown: Lossiemouth is very strong here – at the moment, anyway; 6/5 into 5/6 best. Casheldale Lad is a NR,
3.40pm Musselburgh: Not a great deal of movement here but Florida Dreams is 9/2 from 13/2
This race has obviously cut up a fair amount at the overnight stage and it looks a great opportunity for Mossy Fen Road to continue with his winning hurdling roll, as a top price of [4/7] suggests.
He looks the stand-out on form and on the clock on his Chepstow win last time, and it will be disappointing if he can’t take care of his three opponents, the most dangerous of which is clearly Captain Hugo.
I wouldn’t even lay 2s-on.
Captain Hugo, [11/4] in a place, has himself looked good in Newbury and Haydock successes, with a second to Taurus Bay at Aintree in between no disgrace, but he meets a good one here.
The other two runners are promising enough but they need to step up considerably to cause a shock here.
Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore have considerably bolstered the Sunday Musselburgh numbers and they stuck in Smoke Trail late on for this, with £1,495 going begging for fourth place, and double that if they nab third.
Free money. If their horse stands up.
We lost Leopardstown on Saturday, but we should be fine for Sunday (8am inspection in the morning) – if the current forecast holds true.
A five-runner novices’ chase featuring a hugely talented [2/5] chance in Final Demand wouldn’t be at the top of my betting list, and that is ignoring what will surely be attritional ground.
I wouldn’t keel over if he got beaten – and 9s chance Western Fold is only 1lb shy of him on official ratings – but I won’t be paying to find out.
Rushmount is an important NR – now only four runners.
This six-runner 2m4f+ novices’ handicap chase doesn’t make a great deal of betting appeal but I can fully see why Dedicated Hero is [9/4] across the board – and not just because firms tend to copy each other.
A graduate from the Irish pointing scene (third to a certain Romeo Coolio on his debut) and a Grade 2 winner over hurdles (won the Rossington Main last year), he made a good chasing debut when splitting decent sorts Meetmebythesea and Fingle Bridge at Ayr, and a mark of just 123 looks exceedingly exploitable here.
His best form to date but has come over 2m but it will be disappointing if he doesn’t fully see out 2m4f around here.
I wouldn’t like to lay [9/4], with his stable having had a decent enough spell in December and January after a very quiet spell, but it’s another no-bet race to start the day.
The market is dominated by Talk The Talk (9/4), King Rasko Grey (3s) and Ballyfad (7/2), with 9s The Reverend and 20s bar.
Obviously, it is easy to see any of those winning – and the Time Bandits are keen on Limerick winner King Rasko Grey, by all accounts – but this race surely has more depth than the betting would have you believe.
Plenty of the outsiders have decent form claims, notably the likes of 20s Blake (looks too big at 20s) and his Fairyhouse conqueror Koktail Brut – and this is a contest where any one of six or seven results wouldn’t surprise me given the unexposed profile of the horses in here.
I’ll bore you with an interesting headgear stat here though, kindly supplied to me via Andy Richmond and Proform.
It is very surprising how moderate Willie Mullins is when applying a first-time hood, as he does with Le Divin Enfant here.
The stats suggest that is a fair negative – Mullins is 41-219; 18.72pc; -66.71pts at SP.
Another small-field contest, and it is set to get smaller as Blue d’Enfer and Denemethy are set to run on Saturday.
I’d probably agree with the market that makes Koukeo the 2s favourite, but I wouldn’t dream of having a bet, especially as I am no fan of that stable.
Denemethy and Bleu d’Enfer are NRs.
I imagine some punters will put this race on hold until they see whether Marine Nationale, now available at [9/4], runs.
The ground is obviously going to be very testing, and this horse got pulled out in similar conditions in the Fortria at Navan in November.
But it sounds like Barry Connell is going to roll the dice.
However, if he does run, you’d have thought they wouldn’t want to bottom him here ahead of some meeting in March.
A messy picture, and Solness will not be liking the ground either, so I will revisit this race when I do a betting update after the result of the 8am Sunday morning inspection is known.
Willie Mullins runs Majborough and Energumene in first-time cheekpieces, which, statistically-wise (see below), is not a positive.
It’s a race full of question marks. I’ll have a further ponder later.
At last, a decent betting race, with just one shy of a maximum field of 14 in this 2m4f handicap hurdle (though whether the 11/2 second favourite Magna Victor is set to run again, having won today by 2 lengths, is another matter, so let’s see what connections do now. Let’s hope they make a quick decision on his participation, either way).
Even though there are some stamina doubts for him over 2m4f (well 2m3f171yd), I thought Young Merlin was well overpriced at 25s and the general 22s and 20s.
Play at the best each-way terms you can (see Oddschecker).
His runs to date over 2m4f have been underwhelming but this is obviously a speed track, the ground isn’t too bad, and he does have an okay run over an extended 2m3f at Carlisle two starts ago on his dance card, so perhaps I shouldn’t be overly-concerned about the trip for him.
He did check out a bit tamely after looking a possible winner at Carlisle , but I guess that was his first hurdles tune-up since January 1 2025, and his first for his current trainer.
He had a recent Flat spin over Newcastle after that Carlisle run (when a visor replaced his usual cheekpieces, which are back on here) and he simply looks overpriced here on a track in which he finished second on both his starts on the level.
Trainer Rebecca Menzies is going along well enough at the moment (she had the well-backed winner of this race last year) and 5lb claimer Benjamin Macey has a fair strike rate (and he has finished first or second on his five of his last six rides, if that means anything – probably not).
The ‘oss is the joint-oldest horse in here as a 10yo and is on a long losing run but we know he can be competitive off a mark of 110; indeed his last winning mark (in 2023) was off 113.
He is the best bet of the weekend for me, each-way at the best terms your accounts allow.
Magna Victor is a NR.
I’d be lying if I said I had heard of most of these – Irish races and results don’t tend to register with me on a daily basis – but this is a very valuable 2m5f+ handicap chase, and 23 are locking horns in it, so I have put in the effort.
Well, some, anyway.
The two that caught my eye most, to small stakes, were Ile Atlantique at 16s and A Wave Of The Sea at 40s.
The former admittedly hasn’t been given much slack by the handicapper after plying his trade in Graded company ever since his maiden hurdle success – well besides his Beginners Chase success at Navan in December 2024 – but the course winner has a class edge over these here and he didn’t run at all badly behind Heart Wood last time.
A mark of 152 leaves little wriggle room admittedly but the combination of trip and testing ground could be ideal, with proven stamina over further an obvious plus.
One for Mr Bloom, hopefully.
A Wave Of The Sea won at this Festival three times in a row from 2020-22 and he didn’t run badly at Tramore last time.
He is a bit out of the weights and could possibly prefer a better surface, but 40s was very fair, all in.
They are my two darts, with Ile Atlantique at 16s the premier play.
We are now down to just seven runners here, so changing each-way terms.
A pretty disappointing turn-out for the Edinburgh National (nine shy of the maximum field) but I thought Rock My Way could well bounce back from his below-par run in the Welsh National and win this.
However, [5/2] is a bit too skinny, though it seems I may be in a minority there….
Grozni and Magna Sam at 5s and 8s respectively are arguably better bets, the latter bidding for his third win in the race, but it’s not a race that had me scrambling for an interest.
Magna Sam is a NR as at 8.05am (going). He was 9s, so a small Rule 4 here, as well as changing each-way terms.
I could make a case for all four at the top of the betting at their respective prices, so maybe laying Lossiemouth could be the percentage call here if you can get her in the can at [6/5] or shorter – she is [2.16] now – and have the field running for you at [5/6].
That wouldn’t be a bad bet as I’d personally fancy Brighterdaysahead , a [15/8] chance here, to reverse their form here last month for starters – that screamed means-to-an-end for the Gordon Elliott mare – and Anzadam and El Fabiolo are hugely dangerous floaters.
The more Lossiemouth shortens, the more I lay.
Casheldale Lad is a NR.
A very competitive 14-runner handicap hurdle (again, just one shy of a maximum field) and not a race that I have a strong opinion about, though I initially thought the 11yo Red Risk at a general 20s probably was a fair shout.
But Paul Nicholls was certainly not gushing about his chances in his Betfair column, and it would seem Uttoxeter in March is his principle aim.
Make of this what you will but he said: “He’s in the grip of the handicapper and he’s not getting any younger. He ran well in this race last year and then went on to Uttoxeter, which is the plan again, but at the moment I think he’s got it all to do.”
Trainers, eh?
Double Powerful heads the market at [7/2] and that is easy to see after his Lanzarote second to a rejuvenated Iberico Lord at Kempton (raised a fair 2lb, given he was well clear of the third).
I Love My Baie is a NR as at 9.17am (travel).
Good luck today – I have had a look at tomorrow’s racing at Leopardstown. Great racing but I genuinely fancy nothing at the current prices, so I don’t think it is worth doing a column, as it stands.
I’ll be back tomorrow if I do spot something, but the bookies had a sneak preview of the movers before racing was cancelled on Saturday morning, so they have factored that into their Monday prices (my big-race leans Gaelic Warrior and I Am Maximus are a fair bit shorter now than they were on Friday night, for example).
I think voiding day-of-race bets from Saturday, when original fields stand on the same track (and going etc), is very poor. If it is in the rules then fair enough, but I have seen some very ropey/loose explanations from bookmakers.
Young Merlin at 25/1 each-way in 2.30pm at Musselburgh (22s and 20s acceptable) – best bet of the weekend for me, so get the bet terms your accounts allow
Ile Atlantique at 16/1 win-only in 2.45pm at Leopardstown
GOING: Good to soft
GOING STICK: 6.8, Sunday 7am
Musselburgh’s Parameters – Soft 5.6-6.6, Good to Soft 6.6-7.6, Good 7.6-8.6
Sunday morning course update: Cloudy. Staying mostly cloudy with some patchy rain at times, with a risk throughout the day and for your afternoon Racing. 8*. MORNING: Trace to 1.0mm AFTERNOON: 0.5-2.0mm .
Weather (yr.no latest): 0.6mm today
1 February 7.12am – Following an inspection this morning, Leopardstown was found to be fit for racing and the fixture scheduled for today goes ahead. The ground is heavy (Hurdle) & soft (Chase). Possible occasional light showers this morning, mainly dry thereafter.
Weather (yr.no latest): 1.6mm today
Neil Mulholland visor, Transmission. 3.05pm Musselburgh; 1-26 since 2009
John McConnell, Hood, Encanto Bruno, 3.40pm Musselburgh; 4-61 since 2013
Joseph O’Brien visor, Solness, 2.10pm Leopardstown; 1-17 since 2017
Henry de Bromhead cheekpieces. Harry Des Ongrais, 2.45pm Leopardstown; 13-100 since 2016
12.55pm Musselburgh: Mossy Fen Road, Captain Hugo, Smoke Trail
1.10pm Leopardstown: Final Demand, Jimmy Du Seuil, Kaid d’Authie, Western Fold
1.25pm Musselburgh: Go West, Intense Approach, Bold Light
1.40pm Leopardstown: Ballyfad, Koktail Brut, Le Divin Enfant
1.55pm Musselburgh: Koukeo, Parisencore
2.10pm Leopardstown: Solness, Senecia, Energumene?, Found A Fifty?, Majborough?
2.30pm Musselburgh: O’Faolains Glory, Charlie’s Dilemma, The Hatchet, Newtown Rambler, Speiriuil (prom)
2.45pm Leopardstown: Croke Park, Ile Atlantique? , You Oughta Know, A Wave Of The Sea, Pride Of Place, Uncle Pat
3.05pm Musselburgh: Rock My Way, Cadell
3.20pm Leopardstown: El Fabiolo, Brighterdaysahead?, Lossiemouth?
3.40pm Musselburgh: Anyway (prom), Beachcomber, Bel Amigo. Ahoy Senor?
Good: Willie Mullins, Joe Tizzard, Adrian Keatley (sensational form), Barry Connell (just three runners though), Adam Nicol, Fergal O’Brien, Harry Derham
Fair: Gordon Elliott (treble on Thursday), Gavin Cromwell, Nicky Richards, Jonjo and A J O’Neill, Robbie Llewellyn, Hobbs and White, Sandy Thomson, Neil Mulholland, S Crawford, Rebecca Menzies, Joseph O’Brien, Denis Hogan, Thomas Gibney, Emmet Mullins, Paul Nicholls, Alastair Ralph (Magna Victor won on Saturday)
Moderate: Henry De Bromhead, Russell and Scudamore, John McConnell, Nick Alexander, Lizzie Quinlan, Susan Corbett,, Ross O’Sullivan, P J Rothwell, Donald McCain (4-1 winner on Friday, though)
Don’t know (very small samples): Noel Meade, David Kenneth Budds), Martin Todhunter (recent winner though), Ian Duncan (recent winner though), Jonathan Sweeney, E McNamara, Vincent Halley, Liz Doyle, Padraig Roche, J P Broderick, T Walsh, E Bolger (one winner though)
1.15pm Ascot – 11/2 Catchintsavo set to lead again All change here. Sixteen became six…
TUESDAY race-by-race copy for Saturday 1.15pm Ascot – First three in the betting are due…
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