TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY’s stats and info for the ITV races

GROUND/WEATHER – and notable Saturday no-shows

With the weather forecast worsening overnight (Cheltenham and Doncaster are heading towards heavy in places), it will be interesting to see what horses are confirmed for Saturday this morning.

And then we have a 48-hour+ wait to see what horses actually run, as the ground possibly deteriorates.

It has the potential to get pretty testing at both tracks come Saturday race-time.

Update at 10am

Notable no-shows are Poniros, Stellar Story and Theleme (scoped dirty), plus a shedload of other Gordon Elliott weekend entries – all five in the Cheltenham opener, not entirely surprisingly.

The first two are important, as they take away the each-way angle in the Unibet Hurdle and Cotswold Chase respectively.

And the Cleeve Hurdle is down to just six runners, too.

The fields have held up pretty well in the main at the overnight stage, though – we have a maximum field of 16 in the Cross Country – but I imagine we can expect NRs if we get a lot of rain from hereon in.

It is currently raining at Cheltenham as of 4.30pm (just 3.2mm so far today though).

SATURDAY ITV DETAILS

CHELTENHAM (6mm yesterday – another 3.2mm as of 4.30pm Thursday)

Cross Country: Soft, good to soft in places (GSt 5.9 on Mon 12:30pm)

NEW Course

Hurdle: Soft (GSt 4.8 on Wed 3.30pm)

Chase: Soft (GSt 4.8 on Wed 3.30pm)

Rails: Chase bend rails +9y Hurdle bend rails +8y

• Race 1: Race distance is now +95y to 2m 5f 2y
• Race 2: Race distance is now +56y to 2m 1f 15y
• Race 3: Race distance is now +95y to 2m 5f 2y
• Race 5: Race distance is now +126y to 3m 1f 182y
• Race 6: Race distance is now +56y to 2m 1f 15y
• Race 7: Race distance is now +112y to 3m 105y
• Race 8: Race distance is now +84y to 2m 4f 140y

Thursday morning course update: 81mm of rainfall in January to date, including 6mm yesterday. Further rain throughout today (3-4mm) and tomorrow (2-4mm). Daytime temperatures 10 degrees today dropping to 7 degrees on Friday and Saturday.

Weather (yr.no forecast as at 4pm Thursday): 3.2mm as of 4.30pm Thursday; 1.7mm Friday; 3mm Saturday (maybe after racing)

DONCASTER 

GOING: Soft, good to soft in places

The track has recently been verti- drained

Going Stick – 4.8

Average Soil Moisture 49.6%

Rails: All bends are divided

• Race 1: Race distance is now +20y to 2m 148y
• Race 2: Race distance is now +20y to 3m 104y
• Race 3: Race distance is now +20y to 3m 104y
• Race 7: Race distance is now +20y to 2m 148y

Thursday morning course update: 4.2mm rain in the last 24hrs 1mm rain Monday. 1.4mm rain Tuesday. Overcast with showers forecast through today and tomorrow. Easterly breeze week with no frosts currently forecast. Temperatures approx 8C.

Weather (yr.no latest as at 8,17am Thursday): 7.5mm Thursday; 1.4mm Friday

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS (ITV races)

James Moffatt visor; Caughtinyourtrance; 12.55pm Doncaster;  2-26

Killahena and McPherson cheekpieces; Rockola Vogue; 1.30pm Doncaster; 0-0

Faye Bramley cheekpieces; Walking On Air; 2.05pm Doncaster; 0-1

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; ITV races)

12.55pm Doncaster : Caughtinyourtrance, Fountains Blenhein, Get On George, Rocking Man, The Last Cloud (prom), Kicour La (prom)

1.15pm Cheltenham : Riskintheground? (unlikely), Uncle Bert (prom), Prairie Wolf (prom), Donnacha (prom), Hurricane Bay (prom), Javert Allen (looks set to lead)

1.30pm Doncaster : Jetara (prom)?, Dream On Baby

1.50pm Cheltenham : Favori Di Champdou (prom), Final Orders (prom), Annual Invictus, Iceo Madrik, Tommie Beau (prom), J’Arrive De L’Est (prom), Escaria Ten (prom), Some Scope, Miralago (prom)

2.05pm Doncaster : Josh The Boss, Docpickedme, Grand Geste, Walking On Air (prom), Dartmoor Pirate (prom), New Order, Kelce

2.25pm Cheltenham : Grey Dawning?, L’Homme Presse?, Flooring Porter

3pm Cheltenham (no obvious pace): Brentford Hope has made all in past and Nemean Lion can race prominently (I doubt The New Lion will want to press on  again)

3.35pm Cheltenham : Gowel Road (set for an uncontested lead it seems)

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; ITV races)

Good: Dan Skelton (another treble on Thursday), Olly Murphy, Nicky Henderson, Fergal O’Brien, Emma Lavelle, Anthony Honeyball,  Sam Thomas (excellent, as ever), Jessie Harrington (very small sample), Killahena and McPherson, Ben Pauling

Fair: Joe Tizzard (poor win strike rate), Gordon Elliott (poor win strike rate), Greenall and Guerriero, Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies, Parkinson and Smith, Jane Williams, Chris Gordon,  Emmet Mullins, Martin Keighley, Syd Hosie, Kerry Lee, Harry Derham, Paul Nolan, Rebecca Menzies, Christian Williams, Faye Bramley, Neil Mulholland (14-1 winner on Thursday); Gavin Cromwell has turned a corner it seems (few placed of late, and evens and 11-2 winners in the first two races at Gowran on Thursday – and then follows up with the Thyestes winner)

Moderate: Nigel Hawke (small sample and last runner was a close second), John McConnell, Lucy Wadham,  Tom Ellis, Seamus Mullins, Venetia Williams, Charlie Longsdon

Don’t know: D Cottin, Richard Hobson, Georgina Nicholls (probably going okay in a small sample), James Joseph Mangan, Ruth Jefferson, James Moffatt, Patrick Neville, Rebecca Curtis, Dermot A McLoughlin