By Tony Calvin - 22 January 2026
Firstly the ground again.
I have just spoken to someone who has walked the track this at Cheltenham this morning, and whose opinion I would respect.
“It’s soft and dead. Very hard work.”
Having seen some shots from Donny, it looks sunny.
A bit too sunny – so low sun, and omitted obstacles could be in the offing, if you are betting here.
And that ground looked churned up and awful when Luke Harvey just did his chat on Sky Sports Racing just now around 11.05am.
In the 12.40pm, Maestro Conti is out to 10/3 in places, a more realistic price (he was as short as 11-10 on Tuesday), with One Horse Town the biggest shortener, 8s on Thursday but now 4s. Minella Yoga is solid enough at [9/4].
In the Cross Country at 1.50pm, Placenet is one of the biggest shorteners of the day from 8s to 4s.
In the Cotswold Chase at 2.25pm, Grey Dawning can’t be given away (yet) and is now out to [6/5] fixed-odds and [2.36] on the exchange. Spillane’s Tower has been cut to [9/4] and Flooring Porter into 10s.
In the Unibet Hurdle at 3pm, we have a static market but Nemean Lion is into just 28s.
Nothing much going on in the Cleeve Hurdle at 3.35pm, but Ma Shantou is popular enough at 4s. Impose Toi is top at [10/11] with AKBets.
Not much between Act Of Innocence (weakish) and Heads Up and Taurus Bay (both strongish) in the closer at 4.10pm. The former just shades the other two at [5/2].
In the 12.55pm, Carlenrig is a big drifter to small sums. He was [9/2] yesterday morning but is now available at a general 12s. The Price Of Peace and my slight lean Get On George are into [9/2] and [8/1] respectively. Rocking Man was clear favourite in some lists yesterday morning and he is out to 10s.
In the 13.30pm, That’ll Do Moss is popular into [7/2].
In the 2.05pm, there isn’t a great deal going on but Grand Geste is a solid [9/4] at the moment, with Deep Cave a weakish 5s. Dartmoor Pirate has been nibbled at it seems, into 6s.
I imagine connections will walk it for themselves to decide – I spoke to someone who has walked the track this at Cheltenham this morning, and whose opinion I would respect and they said: “It’s soft and dead. Very hard work” – but Cheltenham is now officially back to soft this morning, with soft, good to soft on the Cross Country course.
Their Saturday morning update reads: “89mm of rainfall in January to date, including 3mm yesterday. Drying wind overnight with 0.4mm rain at 03:30. Wind forecast to continue through the day (30-35mph gusts). Daytime temperature of 9 degrees.”
The updated Saturday morning going stick reading is 4.4 from 4.3, which suggests there could be some heavy still in there (past readings provide some context here – see below – even if different days and different tracks etc) and the first going stick reading since Monday on the Cross Country course is 4.8 (was 5.9 on Monday).
There is 5mm due today, but it isn’t set to start until 3pm-ish.
No NRs so far.
Doncaster have yet to update this morning.
They have had 11 NRs so far (seven ground-related, including King’s Threshold and Kelce in the Great Yorkshire Chase, which is down to eight runners), and three of the races have changed each-way terms as a result.
It’s a dry day here and low sun could be an issue.
They have just updated and I didn’t have them drying to soft, good to soft in places, on my Bingo card, after 18 ground-related NRs yesterday (when soft, heavy in places).
Stick readings haven’t changed a great deal (0.2).
That change seems a touch curious to me.
First things first, the ground could be pretty testing here – it is very poor from Cheltenham not to have updated their going stick readings since Wednesday, as this column goes live at 10.36am (now updated below) – albeit this place does drain quickly and it looks like the worst of the rain has been and gone.
It still looks showery for the next 24 hours or so though (Saturday’s bulk of rain is currently not due to start until 4pm), so not drying weather.
As per 2.30pm on Friday, it is now soft, heavy in places, on the chase/hurdles tracks, with a going stick reading of 4.3, and soft on the Cross Country (going stick reading is still from Monday here).
The Cheltenham going stick reading is 4.3, with the ground described as soft, heavy in places.
It was 5.3 when heavy, soft in places, on the Old Course on November 15.
But 4.0 when ground was last described as soft, heavy in places, on chase course on March 15, 2024.
Different courses, different days but it gives it some context.
Anyway, Gordon Elliott had five in this at the five-day stage and he didn’t confirm any.
I have no idea why he doesn’t just ring up the handicapper and ask for the UK marks of his novices instead of wasting money with entries; I assume the assessor would be happy to take his calls and provide him with the necessary information.
He had the first four in the handicap too, so the weights for this went up 7lb at the overnight stage, which was good news for the French runner Kaline Des Boullat, ridden by Bryony Frost. I wouldn’t have the first clue whether the mare is well treated off 114 here, though.
I suspect Califet En Vol is though, on his hurdling form at least, and he has run two satisfactory races over fences here this season, which have possibly been fact-finding missions with a view to going handicapping.
He was a smart novice hurdler, beating No Questions Asked in the Sidney Banks before going on to the Grade 1 at Aintree. He appeared to run out of puff over 3m after travelling like the winner that day, but it transpired he returned home very home sore after that run.
Whatever, 2m4f in deeper ground than which he encountered when a good third to Miami Magic and Regent’s Stroll here last time – he didn’t meet the last right there, which cost him momentum – should suit, and he could just come out best in what has always been a highly informative informative race for the Festival.
He was 7s on Tuesday (when 20 were in the race, including the Elliott mob), he was [9/2] in a place on Thursday, and that was fair, if not generous, given the potential depth of this race.
But he is now a definite walkaway price at a general [7/2] and [10/3], though one piece of 4s has just popped up on the final sub-edit (that’ll be coming under pressure), with Barlovento having been cut into [7/2] favouritism on Friday morning.
It does look a hot little novices’ handicap chase, all right – as it usually is.
I said earlier in the week that impressive Kempton winner Maestro Conti was a little too short at odds ranging from [11/10] to [13/8], and those comments stand true at his best price of [6/4] now.
Mind you, he has eased from [5/4] this morning.
Actually, make that [13/8] now.
Now, this would not be a betting race in my eyes, as we are dealing with a whole host of unexposed winners (eight of the 10 have won), but it is definitely one I want to watch.
It may be too early to write off One Horse Town, as he could have bumped into two very smart sorts when beaten by Minella Study and Winston Junior last time, but he does have a 5lb penalty and that makes life tough (Maestro Conti is the only other horse in here with a burden, in his case 3lb).
In many ways, Paul Nicholls’ Minella Yoga is the sexy one in this, as he did remarkably well to beat a horse many think a lot, Act Of Innocence (runs in the last), on his debut for the yard at Newbury last time, having won an Academy Hurdle in Ireland, after which he was bought for 360,000 euros.
He was getting 18lb from the runner-up at Newbury, but it was a still a highly pleasing debut, obviously.
At [9/4] best – the [5/2] was taken – he was never going to be ignored in the market (though he was 4s in a place earlier in the week) and the sensible thing is to watch here without the need for a bet.
I was going to say that, if pressed, I would back One Horse Town at 8s each way, but he has been cut into [13/2] best this morning and as low as [9/2].
Yes, you guessed it – the firm going [9/2] are the one offering four places.
Punters pay far too much for these offers, though hopefully they will have cottoned on by now.
This is one competitive renewal of the River Don, and arguably even [9/2] the field doesn’t do its depth justice.
Indeed, I personally think it is very difficult to have a strong betting view on a race which houses a range of similarly talented horses, even if none sets a high bar – Thedeviluno is top-rated here with an Irish mark of 134 – many of whom are capable of sprouting wings when stepping up to 3m on soft ground for the first time.
Sprouting wings is probably not the right description of a race that promises to be a right old slog in the conditions – it is now soft, heavy in places at Donny, and they have had 18 going-related non-runners on Friday – but you know what I mean.
Sam Thomas continues to be selectively mustard (20 from 54 this season) and he saddles the [9/2] favourite in Rocking Man. Indeed, his horse beat, Carlenrig, by 3 lengths over 2m3f+ at Chepstow in November is his main market rivals at 5s and he is 5lb better off with him here.
Granted, the kitchen sink was not thrown at the second that day and he has since recorded a Grade 2 win at Cheltenham but I’d be siding with the Thomas horse of that pair once again, if asked.
Of course, his stamina is an unknown, but he also happened to be a very smart bumper horse with form in heavy.
Course winner Get On George interested me most at 16s in the ante-post column on Tuesday and he is still available at that price now – he strikes me as a slogger who could be suited to this challenge, and I’ve thrown a lay score on him at 16s – but it’s a total guess-up, in truth.
In fact, this whole race is but I can see why Rocking Man narrowly heads the market.
By the way, this is the time of the year when some horses are having their first runs after their flu jabs. Just a random thought, as I noticed Rebecca Curtis hasn’t had a runner in a fair while (this is just her fifth in January) and that could be the reason.
Incidentally, her The Price Of Peace is yet another plausible contender in here. One of too many.
Like the ground, this is deep.
Now, it could be that beating Jagwar, best at [15/8], is a step too far for the rest of these – though Booster Bob has been cut into [7/2], I see, which surprises me – but I couldn’t understand why Javert Allen drifted to 8s after the final field was known.
Unfortunately, that 8s has been taken this morning and he is now just 7s.
Such is punting life.
Sure, all the big guns stood their ground but, importantly for Jane Williams’ horse, top weight JPR One was one that didn’t and that allows him to race off his correct mark (he was 2lb wrong at the five-day stage).
In addition, I can see Javert Allen getting an uncontested lead, and the 7yo arguably has the best credentials to down the favourite.
His 2m form is very solid this season, and he has only gone up 2lb for a brace of good efforts, and the step up in trip promises to suit on pedigree.
His 2m form this season does stand up to scrutiny, particularly his fourth to Mambonumberfive at Aintree in early November, as the first, second, third and fifth have all won since, some more than once (one twice, and another three times).
Looking at his profile, the break since his subsequent second at Newbury later that month is a plus too, as he goes well when fresh.
He is still worth a small win-only shot at 7s (I have had a very modest exchange bet myself), and maybe betting without Jagwar, possibly Ryanair-bound if he dances in here, too. Or the Ultima if he doesn’t.
Feet Of A Dancer looked a very fair price to me at 3s on Tuesday when there were 12 in the race, so it stands to reason that she remains a decent bet at [5/2] with only seven rivals to face now (Nurse Susan, the 3s joint-favourite, is one of the four no-shows).
Sure, the 3s chance Jetara, who won this race last year, is officially the best-in here by 2lb but I’d have Feet Of A Dancer over her all day long on current form.
She comes here after a wide-margin Punchestown win and a second to Wodhooh over 2m4f+ at Leopardstown last time – coming back for more close home – and she has solid 3m form and she can handle heavy ground very well, if required (it probably will be).
She finished fourth in the Pertemps over this trip and I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay her at [5/2], which is available in two places as this goes live at 10.36am.
In fact, I’ve had a small bet on her at that price (a whopping 50 notes), even though [5/2] is very much towards the bottom end of my punting price ladder. She’d be my idea of the best bet of a very quiet punting day.
Sorry to be a stuck record, but these Cross Country races do zilch for me.
And there is no point pretending otherwise.
Final Orders denied a punt on J’Arrive De L’Est here last time but the Emmet Mullins horse is 6lb better off for the 4 1/4 lengths he was beaten there and now sports the cheekpieces he wore when winning in France.
He may well get his revenge, and beat the other 14 runners too, but a general price of [7/4] has all bases covered, it seems.
My advice is to keep your (cheese) wedge in your pocket here.
Thankfully, we only lost three at the overnight stage, so 10 are rocking up for the Great Yorkshire Chase.
At the moment anyway (see Friday’s ground-related NRs above).
Unfortunately, my thoughts haven’t really changed from Tuesday when I agreed with the market in that Grand Geste and Deep Cave were the two to beat and they are now shorter at a general 3s and 4s respectively.
I couldn’t really see a betting angle beyond that pair.
King’s Threshold could be a player after that good Newbury win last time but whether he will be in his element on ground I obviously expect to be very testing – particularly after they have opened it up on Friday – is my worry. The 14s knocking about on Friday morning was half-tempting, but in fact he is three points bigger to pennies (literally, as £1 is available at 18.0) on the exchange.
Modern day punting…
New Order is also reasonably interesting at a general 12s though I am not sure why they have taken off the hood off after a good third at Cheltenham last time. Of more concern perhaps is the form of the Charlie Longsdon yard, as they have been running badly for a while now.
Chuck will be hoping for a Gavin Cromwell revival tout suite.
King’s Threshold is a NR as at 7.33pm (going), followed by Kelce at 7.43am this morning.
With last year’s winner L’Homme Presse hailing from a stable that can’t even buy a good run in defeat, Spillane’s Tower having shown no chase form since the 2024 John Durkan and Flooring Porter seemingly running here instead of the Cleeve Hurdle in order to get a qualifying run for the Grand National, then surely all roads lead to Grey Dawning.
The [8/13] could be a gift – he could well get bigger – but I am not sold on him wanting a stamina test of 3m1f+ around here, ahead of a Gold Cup, and the form of his admittedly cruise-control Betfair Chase win in November is hardly the Grade 1 form of gods given what runner-up Royale Pagaille did last time.
I can let him win all day long at the current price, though I guess the youngster of the party, 8yo Spillane’s Tower, did show more over hurdles last time and gets 6lb (he is the form horse at these weights and he has won over 3m1f, but is he really a stayer, especially in this ground?) and L’Homme Presse ran well on his comeback and is on his favourite stomping ground, albeit at the age of 11 and with a 6lb penalty.
Pass.
I had a thought when doing the final edit. Will Skelton even have Grey Dawning at fever pitch?
I roundly recall him saying after Protektorat was only fourth in this race as a [5/4] chance in 2023 that he had left plenty to work on.
Not exactly what his favourite backers wanted to hear after doing their dough….
Maybe that is why Grey Dawning has drifted to [8/13] this morning, with Spillane’s Tower, L’Homme Presse and Flooring Porter cut into [7/2], 4s and 12s respectively.
That, and the rain.
Well done to those who burgled a bit of Nemean Lion at 66s each way, quarter 1,2 earlier in the week – hopefully your account survives, and I’ve heard dafter stories than backing him without the favourite here (13/2 in one place) – as I am not sure to what to expect from The New Lion.
I do know what I expect from Sir Gino, and that is a fluent win and subsequent odds-on favouritism for the Champion Hurdle.
I am far from sold on the fact that The New Lion would have won the Fighting Fifth had he not come down 2 out at Newcastle.
I had another couple of looks at that race yesterday and, while my original position that he was fighting a losing battle there has softened more than a touch, he certainly didn’t convince me as a definite winner, even though that was a very poor Grade 1 and he didn’t impress with his attitude early doors in that contest either.
Nemean Lion, beaten under 2 lengths at Newcastle and again recently at Windsor, may have his limitations but that is what we are dealing with this in this division – horses rated in the low 150s picking up good prize money and occasionally winning, as we saw with Golden Ace here last March and at Newcastle.
I imagine you will hear the bounce factor a lot with Sir Gino in the next 24 hours or so – and it could be a factor, I guess – but he does look the real deal, over hurdles and fences, and it will be disappointing if he can’t hand The New Lion 3lb and his arse here.
It will be interesting to see what goes on here pace-wise, as there is no obvious, guaranteed front runner. Brentford Hope has made all (two years ago) and Nemean Lion can race prominently, but will their riders want to sit chilly and try to play for third at worst?
This could be messy, so maybe Nico will keep it simple on the best horse, Sir Gino, who went on relatively early doors at Kempton, and crack on himself.
Impose Toi looks to have been handed an easy assignment here after Theleme scoped dirty and wasn’t confirmed for the race.
But I am not so sure.
I’ve been a big fan of the horse since his Aintree return and he did it smoothly in the Long Walk, but I just get the feeling that a 6lb penalty and a searching stamina test on a stiff track is not what the doctor ordered ahead of a Stayers’ Hurdle bid.
At the risk of repeating myself after the Cotwsold Chase and Unibet Hurdle summaries, I imagine he will win but it’s a firm pass from me at the general [10/11].
The 14s chance Gowel Road won from the front in this race last season and an uncontested lead is surely his for the taking again, but he has his work well and truly cut and out with a 6lb penalty against the likes of Impose Toi and Strong Leader, and an up-and-comer in Ma Shantou.
And I wouldn’t rule out the other two, as I strongly suspect Doddiethegreat is a lot better than we have seen from him this season.
It’s not a great division, but it’ll be disappointing if it is so poor that the likes of Gowel Road can win again, positive pace angle or not.
Act Of Innocence had the Time Bandits cooing when winning on his debut for the yard at Newbury, but then he was turned over at [2/7] on his return to that track next time (see above in the 12.40pm race analysis).
Time (well the 12.40pm) may prove he had a job on trying to give the juvenile Minella Yoga 18lb though and, with Old Park Star in the stable and in the same ownership, they are obviously keen to keep them apart and see if he has the stamina for the 2m5f of the Turners.
So Nicky Henderson’s hand may have been forced here to a large extent, rather than truly believing he needs more than 2m.
In terms of pure talent, I think he could easily see these off – which he is why he a [15/8] poke I suppose, but he is on the drift from [6/4] – but any stamina doubts will be found out here in this ground.
If they do decide to take a lead with him instead of forcing it, then let’s hope they still ride him very handy; there is nothing more infuriating than seeing horses with stamina to prove anchored out of the back, which is nonsensical when you think about it.
Unless the pace is helter-skelter, clearly.
He is 14s for the Turners if you think he stays and wins. I just think he might, despite the ground worry, up in trip.
It wouldn’t be Festival curtains if he was beaten here though, as maybe he wants a decent surface.
Indeed, he was pulled out on soft ground here in November, and there must be a doubt if he will even run in the gathering gloom on the worst of the ground.
If all eight go, I initially thought The Blue Room, second to Turners’ favourite No Drama This End over 2m4f in soft ground at Sandown last time, could be the each-way angle here as a guaranteed stayer with similar (ish) form claims to the favourite.
However, I was not alone. The 12s was taken early on Thursday though (hands up I managed to get £25 each way at that price), followed by 11s and 10s, and then the 9s and 8s.
The general 7s is his price now and actually Fortune Timmy is probably a better each-way play at 11s now.
But one non-runner blows the bet wide open.
Indeed, keep an eye out for NRs in all races on Saturday, as the ground could put plenty off.
Good luck, all.
Javert Allen at 7/1 in 1.15pm Cheltenham win-only
Feet Of A Dancer at 5/2 in 1.30pm Doncaster win-only
Cross Country: Soft, good to soft in places (Going Stick 4.8, Saturday 7am – was 5.9 on Mon 12:30pm)
NEW Course
Hurdle: Soft (Going stick 4.4, Saturday 7am – was 4.3 on Friday and was 4.8 on Wed 3.30pm)
Chase: Soft (Going stick 4.4, Saturday 7am – was 4.3 on Friday and was 4.8 on Wed 3.30pm)
Rails: Chase bend rails +9y Hurdle bend rails +8y
Saturday morning course update: 89mm of rainfall in January to date, including 3mm yesterday. Drying wind overnight with 0.4mm rain at 03:30. Wind forecast to continue through the day (30-35mph gusts). Daytime temperature of 9 degrees.
Weather (yr.no forecast): 5mm Saturday (but not currently due to start until 3-4pm)
Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture
GOING: Soft, good to soft in places (was soft, heavy in places on Friday, when they had 18 ground-related NRs)
The track has recently been verti- drained; 80/20 split
Going Stick – Hurdles: 4.7; Chase: 4.9 (Saturday 7.45am)
Average Soil Moisture 45.9%
Rails: All bends are divided
Saturday morning course update: 1mm rain Friday 5.2mm rain Thursday Mainly dry with some sunny spells through the day. Easterly breeze – 14mph Temperatures approx 8C
Weather (yr.no latest): Dry
Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture
James Moffatt visor; Caughtinyourtrance; 12.55pm Doncaster; 2-26
Killahena and McPherson cheekpieces; Rockola Vogue; 1.30pm Doncaster; 0-0
Faye Bramley cheekpieces; Walking On Air; 2.05pm Doncaster; 0-1
12.55pm Doncaster : Caughtinyourtrance, Fountains Blenhein, Get On George, Rocking Man, The Last Cloud (prom), Kicour La (prom)
1.15pm Cheltenham : Riskintheground? (unlikely), Uncle Bert (prom), Prairie Wolf (prom), Donnacha (prom), Hurricane Bay (prom), Javert Allen (looks set to lead)
1.30pm Doncaster : Jetara (prom)?, Dream On Baby
1.50pm Cheltenham : Favori Di Champdou (prom), Final Orders (prom), Annual Invictus, Iceo Madrik, Tommie Beau (prom), J’Arrive De L’Est (prom), Escaria Ten (prom), Some Scope, Miralago (prom)
2.05pm Doncaster : Josh The Boss, Docpickedme, Grand Geste, Walking On Air (prom), Dartmoor Pirate (prom), New Order – King’s Threshold is a NR as at 7.33pm (going), followed by Kelce this morning
2.25pm Cheltenham : Grey Dawning?, L’Homme Presse?, Flooring Porter
3pm Cheltenham (no obvious guaranteed pace): Brentford Hope has made all in past and Nemean Lion can race prominently (I doubt The New Lion will want to press on again, and possibly the same with Sir Gino) – perhaps Sir Gino keeps it simple and goes on? A messy picture.
3.35pm Cheltenham : Gowel Road (set for an uncontested lead it seems)
Good: Dan Skelton (another treble on Thursday), Olly Murphy, Nicky Henderson, Fergal O’Brien, Emma Lavelle (3-1 and 8-15 winners on Friday), Anthony Honeyball, Sam Thomas (excellent, as ever), Jessie Harrington (very small sample), Killahena and McPherson, Ben Pauling, Neil Mulholland (14-1 winner on Thursday, and 11-2 and 5-6 winners on Friday – last three runners have copped);
Fair: Joe Tizzard (poor win strike rate before 5-2 and 2-1 winners on Friday), Gordon Elliott (poor win strike rate), Greenall and Guerriero, Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies, Parkinson and Smith, Jane Williams, Chris Gordon, Emmet Mullins, Martin Keighley, Syd Hosie, Kerry Lee, Harry Derham, Paul Nolan, Rebecca Menzies (6-4 winner at Southwell on Friday), Christian Williams (winner on Friday), Faye Bramley, Gavin Cromwell has turned a corner it seems (few placed of late, and evens and 11-2 winners in the first two races at Gowran on Thursday – and then follows up with the Thyestes winner)
Moderate: Nigel Hawke (small sample and last runner was a close second), John McConnell, Lucy Wadham, Tom Ellis, Seamus Mullins, Venetia Williams, Charlie Longsdon
Don’t know: D Cottin, Richard Hobson, Georgina Nicholls (probably going okay in a small sample), James Joseph Mangan, Ruth Jefferson, James Moffatt, Patrick Neville (17-2 winner at Southwell on Friday night, though), Rebecca Curtis, Dermot A McLoughlin
1.15pm Ascot – 11/2 Catchintsavo set to lead again All change here. Sixteen became six…
TUESDAY race-by-race copy for Saturday 1.15pm Ascot – First three in the betting are due…
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