TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s stats and info for Ascot and Haydock – and race-by-race copy and morning updates

SATURDAY GOING 7.25am

Ascot is now good to soft, soft in places

Haydock is now soft, good to soft in places on the chase course, and good to soft, soft in places on the hurdles track.

No non-runners at either track as at 7.41am.

 

FRIDAY MORNING TEE-UP FOR TOMORROW – WITH a 3.20pm betting update in some races

The preliminary copy for all of Saturday’s ITV races are now below.

A meatier version/top-up will follow on Saturday morning once the markets are stronger.

Haydock is now soft, good to soft in places on Friday afternoon (I’d have taken 2s-on heavy on Tuesday), as is Ascot currently.

RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS WITH SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATES

1.50pm Ascot  – Bad looks a solid each-way bet at [9/2]

Well played to Ascot, ITV and the sponsors Howden for acting quickly to swap around the three-runner Graduation Chase – that spares us the awkward Iroko-Grand National mark tiresome chat – and this nine-runner 2m3f handicap chase.

It is always easier when the two contests have the same sponsor.

Ascot had 24mm of rain on Thursday, which turned the ground from good on Wednesday evening into the current soft, good to soft in places. The next 24 hours+ is dry and sunny, but at 10 and 11 degrees it is obviously not rapidly drying conditions.

In common with all of Saturday’s ITV races, this is a very tricky race to call but I am not surprised to see Bad marginally heading the betting at 4s.

Well, he did before The Famous Five was trimmed into [7/2] from 5s, and that in just one place as at 3.20pm.

Bad has course form figures of 633223F and, while that clearly lacks a win, it is still a fair body of work here and he has won three times at Kempton since his last visit here.

Of course, that means he has shot up the handicap but at least the handicapper has eased him 1lb for a perfectly good 7-length fifth in the Paddy Power last time, very strong handicap form. And the 2m4f on soft ground on a stiff track (left-handed, too) may have tested his stamina to the full there.

I’ll see which way the market goes here before committing (Bad is now 9/2] in a few places as at 3.20pm).

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE:

The Famous Five was a general 3s yesterday afternoon but is now back out to 5s, highlighting just how fragile/over-reactive to small sum these early markets are.

Here Comes Georgie was 14s and 12s yesterday, and he is into 7s, the biggest mover in this at the moment.

The relevant first-time headgear stats for Etalon (Dan Skelton) and Scarface (Joe Tizzard) are below.

Bad, owned by the sponsor, is [9/2] in several places and that looks a solid each-way bet to me. Take the best place terms you can, and Oddschecker will guide you there.

He looks the best bet in the ITV races, but it’s a lukewarm punting day for me once again.

In fact, he is the only bet I have had today – and a fairly modest cash one at that.

2.05pm Haydock – Grand Geste is the biggest early mover into 10/3

Earlier in the week, I thought we could be into inspection territory at Haydock come Friday morning.

They were soft, heavy in places, on Tuesday, with another 26mm due on Wednesday/Thursday, but they only got 5mm on Wednesday and just shy of that on Thursday, and we have a dry 24 hours+ now up until race-time.

I’m such a pessimist…

The field sizes have held up very well in the two ITV races here, so much so that you have probably taken a borderline price (and lesser place terms for some) if you played ante-post.

The 3m1f+ test of the Tommy Whittle will still be slow-motion stuff at the death I’d have thought, and Jacks Parrot (just the one ‘t’ there, sub-editors and no apostrophe) is the marginal favourite with most books to go one better than last year when he was a 4 ¼-length second to Egbert in this race, weakening close home after having traded at [1.12] in the run.

You would imagine he has been primed for this race once again and the stable are in slightly better form than when he finished a well-beaten fourth of five at Bangor last time, but maybe his current price of [9/2] is not really factoring the modest level of that run last time, albeit it was in a novices’ hurdle.

Of course, I can see him winning, as I can a lot of these doing so now that all bar five have rocked up, though Velvet Elvis and Top Of The Bill standing their ground means four are out of the weights.

That hasn’t stopped Grand Geste, 2lb wrong, being put in pretty short as 4s and [9/2] as he steps back up in trip from a yard performing wonders this season.

My Silver Lining and Saladins Son are just two others with very solid claims (which the betting underlines, though I see the former has drifted to 10s), and I haven’t come close to finalising the short-list, even with a mention of all those.

I’ve parked this one under “too difficult” and I am not having a bet.

Yet.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE:

Grand Geste, having just his third chase start and stepping back up in trip, and Saladins Son are the two early movers – I say that advisedly as it wouldn’t have taken much money to shift the overnight markets (or indeed any these days, including that King George “gamble” earlier in the week – into [10/3] and [9/2] respectively .

However, the latter has just become available at 5s as soon as I was about to type “update.”

Last year’s runner -up Jacks Parrot is out to [7/1], while the 10s knocking about for the mare My Silver Lining yesterday has now become 8s.

It still looks a tough race to call, too tough for me.

2.25pm Ascot  Potters Charm into 13/2 now but Impose Toi remains the one to beat for me

A cracking renewal of the Long Walk, with plenty of depth to the field.

Rather boringly, I said earlier in the week that I think the winner will come from either of JP Manus’s pair of Impose Toi (10/3) and Honesty Policy (5/2), and I’d stand by that assessment.

However, that is only an evens poke at best current prices, so I am hardly telling you much that you don’t already know.

I’d definitely lean towards Impose Toi at [10/3], who immediately appealed to me as a Stayers’ Hurdle candidate after winning a Pertemps qualifier at Aintree off 148 on his first start at 3m last month (he was available at 25s and 20s after that).

He did little to dispel that notion when beating Strong Leader at Newbury last time, and I would expect him to confirm that form, for all he is 6lb worse off for ½-length. He was dominant at the line there, and he had to overcome fluffing his lines at the last, too.

I think this strong-traveller will excel in this deeper race with a better pace, but there is one concern, and that is this is his third start in a short spell before Christmas, and I think he is arguably best when really fresh.

Let’s see which way the market shifts here overnight, too – there have already been nibbles for Jet Blue, and the 12s in a place won’t last long – but I am an Impose Toi man for Saturday and beyond.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE:

Pretty static at the top of the market, with Honesty Policy and Impose Toi at [5/2] and [7/2] respectively.

Potters Charm is the biggest shortener into [13/2] , having been 9s after the final field was known.

I am tempted by the [7/2] about Impose Toi but the third run in a short space of time (and I appreciate he did it earlier in the season) worries me, as he is considered best when fresh by connections.

The nibbles around for Jet Blue have continued into 10s and 9s.

All pace maps are below and I can see Beauport getting an uncontested lead here.

2.40pm Haydock  – 4/1 A Path To Ronda on road to recovery?

Now, this is one race that I expected to suffer numbers-wise, despite only one horse holding a double-entry (Walks The Talk) at the five-day stage, but that is not the case.

Only one of the ten five-entries declined to take up the invitation – no doubt, less rain falling than expected helped – and it is a pretty tasty 45k mares’ novices hurdle.

The aforementioned Walks The Talk has looked very good from the front at Roscommon and Kelso, and she has come here instead of Uttoxeter on Friday and Thurles on Saturday.

I wouldn’t be the biggest fan of trainer John McConnell, as he always seems to be in the “Moderate” camp whenever I do the ITV trainerform analysis, but at least he had a winner at Dundalk on Wednesday and he could have a decent mare on his hands here.

The Kelso form has admittedly been let down by the second, third and fourth since (the fifth won next time) but the time was decent and I see McConnell has put the mare in a Grade 2 at Limerick on Boxing Day.

With five other last-time-out winners in here (the other thee finished second or third) and all being open to improvement, it is hardly a strong lean – especially as the pace map suggests no-one is likely to get an easy lead – but perhaps she is the pick of the current price.

Well, she may have been at the [15/2] she was available at on Thursday, but she is now a general 6s best, with 7s in one spot (now 8s in three spots at 3.20pm).

As with the Tommy Whittle, I’ll file this under “no bet” too, especially as I’d agree with Jackie Hobbs and Supreme Malinas heading the betting at [5/2] and 3s respectively, though maybe either of them winning being a shade of odds-on is a bit strong given this race does have some depth.

I’ll sleep on this race.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE:

Jackie Hobbs and Supreme Malinas are now the [11/4] joint favourites.

A Path To Ronda, 7lb better off for the 4 lengths he was beaten by Supreme Malinas at Exeter last time, is the early shortener from 7s to 4s.

Bittalemon has drifted to 66s and that could be a touch dismissive, but it’s a tricky race to call, with the early lean Walks The Talk now into 7s from 8s. 

3pm Ascot –  11/4 Roc is the pic of the early-market players but Deep Cave still makes most appeal

When I was tracking the decs on Thursday morning, I noticed that Deep Cave was confirmed for this race, only to be taken out before the “no going back” 9.30am deadline.

I expected him to be confirmed for the Graduation Chase at that point (he was double-entered), as only Firefox and Iroko were inked in at that stage, and there was an easy £5,980 up for grabs for third.

But it could have been the confirmation of James Du Berlais late on that put paid to that idea, and Deep Cave was re-instated into this handicap.

And it could have been a good move, as he has a nice profile for this, as a progressive 7yo who did it well at Bangor on his return on his chase debut for the yard, having won at Aintree over hurdles in April.

I reckon a 4lb rise for that Bangor victory is fair and, remember he was also a smart novice hurdler when trained by Henry de Bromhead. It could well be that he is just coming to himself now as a chaser, and he is ground-versatile.

You’d like to see the trainer have a winner (which they duly got on Friday, courtesy of Sean Bowen) and another factor is obviously the price. He was 12s on Tuesday and is now into a general 7s and [15/2], with one bit of 8s lingering.

I wouldn’t like to see him get any lower in a race this competitive. Pic Roc was 4s best as at 3.20pm on Friday.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE:

Pic Roc has continued to shorten, and is now a mere [11/4], He was 5s on Thursday, and [7/2] on Thursday.

Hyland is into 10s.

Deep Cave remains 8s, and the one that still makes most appeal to me, but I haven’t had a bet in this race just yet.

Indeed, in any ITV race as at 8.51am, though a trip to a betting shop shortly is on the cards.

3.35pm Ascot – Helnwein could get bigger, so a waiting game there

The problem each-way punters have here – and especially at the traditional 1,2,3 terms used by some and the Tote and exchanges etc – is that the first three in the betting are all highly fanciable.

Gary and Josh Moore have done wonders to get the one-time 111-rated Flat horse Mondo Man into this 125k handicap off a mark of just 123.

Fitzy and Moore-oh…

Re Mondo Man, I can hear Fitzy now on ITV or SSR tomorrow trotting out his usual 45lb line about Flat v National Hunt marks…

I am not sure if that is in any way accurate, but it always reminds me of when Brian Moore used to religiously trot out yellow cards costing a team 7 points for the resulting 10-minute sin-bin regardless of the teams playing – it did my nut in, as it was plainly generalised bollocks.

David Johnson of Timeform has kindly been on with the following info: “Think the fig is 35 lb and it’s based around the initial scales for Flat and Jumps introduced by Timeform and ultimately more widely adopted elsewhere after. Flat 0-140 i.e. 10-0 and Jumps 0-175 i.e. 12-7.”

Others may disagree.

Alexei has been spoken of as a live outside (if that makes sense) Champion Hurdle hope by some after working his way to a mark of 147 after a 6-length defeat of Helnwein the Greatwood Hurdle.

And everyone has seen how well Wilful’s third to Celtic Dino and Alexei in the Welsh Champion Hurdle has worked out, and he is only 1lb higher here.

I’d say that trio are going to be hard to shift out of the frame myself, as their odds reflect.

Live Conti is the obvious unexposed floater at 16s for Dan Skelton but maybe Helnwein is the possible each way angle (especially for those with access to a fourth place).

He perhaps lacks the winning sparkle here but he travelled so well in the Greatwood before the winner took command up the straight, and he is 9lb better off for 6 lengths with Alexei. And perhaps they will play him a bit later here.

He is a fair each-way price at 12s.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE:

It is tight at the top of the market with [10/3] Mondo Man playing [7/2] Alexei.

I’d still favour Helnwein each-way at 12s but he is over four points bigger win-only (to the usual poor liquidity, granted) , so we could get a bit of 14s from the exchange-trackers.

THURSDAY MORNING OPENING THOUGHTS – AND NEWS OF AN ITV RACE SWITCH

All the ITV races have held up exceptionally well at the overnight stage, bar the 50k Graduation Chase at Ascot (1.50pm).

That only attracted three entries (James Du Berlais came in late, too) from a five-day field of 11.

I wonder whether that race will retain its status on ITV, for all the trio are very good horses (rated 160, 154 and 151).

ITV switch

In fact, it hasn’t.

It is now the opening race on the card at 12.40pm and the original 2m2f+ handicap chase at 1.15pm goes on to ITV at 1.50pm (nine runners).

It is always easier when the two races switched have the same sponsor (Howden), but well played to all concerned.

The original 12.40pm goes to 1.15pm.

Deep Cave hokey-cokey

Elsewhere, the numbers held up very well (Goshen didn’t confirm) but I did spot an interesting hokey-cokey with Deep Cave in that race.

He was confirmed for the 3pm, then taken out, and then re-instated after 9.30am.

Presumably they were toying with the idea of cheap prize money in the Graduation Chase, in which he was also entered, so his ante-post backers in the 3pm probably got lucky that James Du Berlais came in late to lessen the appeal there.

Ground and weather

The ground at both Haydock and Ascot looks like being better than originally thought (details below), though both have a fair bit of rain today before a forecast dry Friday and Saturday.

So we will have a good handle on the weekend ground tomorrow morning.

There is a yellow rain warning in place for Ascot today up to 9pm (Thursday), so it could get tasty there.

Even the course are saying they could get another 12-15mm, and they are racing tomorrow (Friday) as well as Saturday.

I bet the clerks secretly hate these multiple-day meetings, ruining their weekend ground…

The ground is now soft, good to soft in places, at Ascot, and soft at Haydock, as of Friday morning.

With a dry 24 hours or so, it will probably tighten up a touch at both on Saturday.

 

SATURDAY’s DETAILS for ITV races

ASCOT

GOING: Good to soft, soft in places

Going Stick: Chase Course: 4.7, Hurdle: 4.5;  Soil Moisture 39% (all at 10am Saturday)

Rails: The rail on the Chase course is positioned between 4 and 6yds out on each bend and 3 to 4yds out around the remainder of the track. The rail on the Hurdle course is positioned between 3 and 6yds out around the whole track. The Hurdle course rail will be moved after racing on Friday to provide some fresh ground for Saturday.

• Race 1: Race distance is now +10y to 2m 7f 133y
• Race 2: Race distance is now +36y to 2m 2f 217y
• Race 3: Race distance is now +42y to 2m 5f 55y
• Race 4: Race distance is now +10y to 3m 112y
• Race 5: Race distance is now +45y to 3m 10y
• Race 6: Race distance is now +8y to 1m 7f 165y

Saturday morning course update: 0.2mm rain overnight to Saturday morning. 24mm rain recorded on Thursday. 26mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. Today will be dry, partly cloudy and feel colder than yesterday. For access to our live weather station and for the latest going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

Weather (yr.no latest):  Dry Sat

 

HAYDOCK

GOING – Chase: Soft, good to soft in places; Hurdle: Good to soft, soft in places

Going Stick: 5.1, Saturday 6.45am

Soil moisture average: 47%

Rails: Separate bends. Home turn bend out between 7yds & 8yds from the inner. Stable bend out between 3yds & 4yds from the inner. Back straight chase fences re-positioned to the inner by 5yds. Back straight hurdles have moved to the inner by 2 pads width. Each move offers a fresh line and a slight going improvement.

• Race 1: Race distance is now +68y to 2m 3f 39y
• Race 2: Race distance is now +58y to 2m 4f 41y
• Race 3: Race distance is now +41y to 1m 7f 185y
• Race 4: Race distance is now +34y to 2m 101y
• Race 5: Race distance is now +68y to 3m 1f 193y
• Race 6: Race distance is now +68y to 2m 3f 39y
• Race 7: Race distance is now +82y to 3m 140y

Saturday morning course update: 8mm Sunday. 23mm Monday. 5mm Wednesday. 4.6mm Thursday. Dry on Friday. Raceday fine & dry. Max temperature 8°C. Live weather & going: https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/haydock/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry Sat

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS (ITV races only)

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

12.40pm Ascot (just three entries – not on ITV now): Firefox, James Du Berlais?

1.50pm Ascot: Matterhorn, Etalon?, Here Comes Georgie?

2.05pm Haydock: Top Of The Bill, Saladins Son, Brucejack, Grand Geste, O’Toole?, Velvet Elvis, Fenland Tiger?

2.25pm Ascot: Beauport, Potters Charm?

2.40pm Haydock: A Path To Ronda, Bittalemon, Park Princess, Roses All The Way, Walks The Talk

3pm Ascot: Threeunderthrufive, Ga Law?, Hyland? Pic Roc, Two For Gold?, Henry’s Friend, Leave Of Absence

3.35pm Ascot: Live Conti, Welsh Charger, Hardy Du Seuil

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; ITV races only; done before Friday’s racing)

Good: Gordon Elliott, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Nicky Henderson, Gary and Josh Moore, Ben Pauling, Killahena and McPherson, Nicky Richards, Parkinson and Smith

Fair: Greenall and Guerriero (still not convinced myself), Fergal O’Brien, Olly Murphy, Paul Nicholls, Venetia Williams, Tom Lacey, Joe Tizzard, Dan Skelton, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Jamie Snowden, Neil Mulholland, Donald McCain, Anthony Honeyball, Emma Lavelle, Tom Ellis, Harry Derham, James Moffatt (very small sample though), Bailey and Nicholls, Alan King, Willie Mullins, Sam England, Charlie Longsdon (no winners and arguably moderate), Dylan Cunha (winner on Thursday)

Moderate: Christian Williams (11-8 winner on Friday stopped the rot), Alastair Ralph (smallish sample though), P A Fahy (small sample and big prices, but four of last six runners were pulled up), Harry Fry (one near-miss), S Crawford (small sample), John McConnell (6-1 winner at Dundalk on Wednesday though)

Don’t know: Lorna Fowler, D Cottin, Tom Dascombe, Tom Symonds