By Tony Calvin - 21 May 2026
Rogue Messiah is a NR as at 6.47am (not eaten up).
This is one headscratcher of a (now) 17-runner 7f handicap and I am not sure I want to take the job on.
Startled is the correct favourite at [5/1] after a stunning win at York and even a 7lb higher mark may not stop him following up.
Trouble in running may do though, and this race has bumper cars and hard luck stories written all over it.
The cowards’ route, even if giving away the ground, on the outside may be the safest place to be – though I appreciate this has been very much a low-draw bias race in recent years -and I thought Shaman Champion in 14 could go okay. He was only touched off here last year (form has worked out very well) and he ran a satisfactory race on his return at Newbury, his first start for Clive Cox after being bought out of the Richard Hughes yard for 160,000 guineas in October.
He is 16s with extra places, and 20+ win-only in a very illiquid Betfair market.
I have had a tiny nibble.
Sparks Fly is a NR at 9.08am (going).
Be careful – we now have only eight runners.
Wemightakedlongway was available at 6s ante-post when she also had two options in Ireland over the weekend, and she is 3s now she is here.
She certainly has the ability to win and may have had an excuse for her Cork reappearance run, but she did run a shocker there and that takes some forgiving at these odds.
It’s a fair call keeping Friendly Soul in training as a Group 1-winning five-year old mare, having not seen her since winning the Prix de l’Opera in October 2024 – a recent interview with the owner’s representative yielded no clues as to why she has been off – so there are question marks over her at 3s, too.
The drying ground is a negative for the 5s third favourite Sparks Fly and there could be a surprise here.
Quite what supplies it I am not so sure and it is interesting to see William Haggas has pitched his 91-rated Consecrated in this.
Of course, it could be a simple case of black type-hunting for Cheveley Park Stud’s beautifully bred Frankel filly.
But this Listed race does have a decidedly winnable whiff about it.
Oratorical is a NR is a non-runner at 8.27am (going), so no each-way betting.
There were only seven in the Cocked Hat at the five-day stage (and one of those ran at Nottingham on Tuesday), so the course would have been happy enough to get the five runners here. (now four).
Bay Royale and Golden Knight were the no-shows.
Once again, it is all about potential here rather than outstanding credentials going into the race but the 105-rated Saxon Street sets the standard, even with his 3lb penalty.
Mind you, he was [5/6] ante-post and he is only [8/11] now.
He is one of 22 still left in the Derby and he has actually been nibbled for that in recent days – he is currently a 20s poke – and there was certainly much to like about his Epsom Blue Riband Trial win last month, though a mark of 105 is surely as high as the BHA handicapper could have gone.
As regards this 1m3f contest and the Derby, there is plenty of stamina on the distaff side of his pedigree and the stable have won this race a few times in recent years and continue in good recent form.
He is very much the one to beat, as his price of [8/11] underlines. Can he keep the Derby dream alive?
Yes, but at [8/11] he is very much a watching brief here and it is worth pointing out that he doesn’t seem to be a definite Derby runner even if he wins here. Epsom is only a fortnight away, after all.
We are down to 14 runners now.
Winding Stream is a NR as at 10.36am on Friday (girth gall).
If there is going to be trouble in the opening 7f handicap at Goodwood, you can say the same in this 1m 14-runner contest (takes into account the NR above).
It is also choc full of progressive 3yo handicappers, so it is another devil of a puzzle to solve.
Watch out for another NR – and it has happened with Lighting Thunder. And another in St Anton.
However, you can see why Haggas’ Princling is the [4/1] favourite.
He was in the 1m2f London Gold Cup at the five-day stage but he is kept to 1m here and he looks another handicap special for the trainer.
His best form came when second to the very smart Yazin in a 15-runner 7f maiden at Newmarket last season (that form has worked out so well his opening mark here is embarrassingly good) and he went down the usual Haggas route of going to a minor track to get handicapped last time, which he duly did when winning at 4s-on at Wetherby (and the runner-up ran well at York next time, too).
This Kingman colt, out of a 105-rated mare, has been given a mark of just 87 and that looks highly exploitable to say the least.
But, as with Startled, he will need the run of the race. And his 15 rivals do not look like statues, either.
Spoof is a NR as at 10.03am (going), followed by Francisco’s Piece at 11.20am (going).
York have produced going stick readings across the track (see below).
I initially had no inclination to get involved in this now 19-runner 5f sprint handicap – it could have been worse, as it is one shy of the maximum – but I have actually just thrown a score each-way on Spoof at 40s.
Spoof is probably right as far as making cases in these roulette contests go, but I found it hard to get my head around the 40s, even though the draw in 19 is a bit too extreme for my liking.
He took advantage of a falling handicap when winning at 40s at Doncaster last time and he is still on an exploitable mark despite a 4lb rise.
Sure, he may be a waning force at the age of 11 – Fortification is eight years his junior – but the mark reflects that and he showed there was still life in the old dog at Donny, where he beat a horse who won next time out.
He actually finished fourth at 66s in this race off a 12lb higher mark in 2024.
Not a race that particularly appealed to me initially but maybe Spicy Marg is a touch overpriced at 20s in two places (effectively the same firm though, and when one price shortens the other will – but that’s the price at 7.50am).
In fact, she is.
They tried to stretch her out to a mile in the 1,000 Guineas and she actually ran very well to be beaten just over 5 lengths.
This 6f trip is more her bag though, as we saw with a close fourth in the Cornwallis and a subsequent Listed race win at Newmarket on her final start at two.
The more I looked at this, the more that 20s appealed, for all she clearly needs to improve to take this.
She stayed perfectly well from well off the pace in the Guineas – it really was a fine return, given they probably rode her incorrectly there – and I am off to get a bit of the 20s.
I suspect I will have to settle for 18s, though.
I did.
This is surely all about how straight Danielle is here, and the current [8/11] about her – she is nearly [10/11] in a very illiquid Betfair market – could easily be 2s-on at the off.
Formwise and on the clock, she has a stone in hand of this field and that runaway win on heavy ground over 1m2f at Doncaster last season was a paygrade above the opposition here.
She stays this 1m6f trip well and is a Group 2 filly off levels against Listed-class opposition at best, so she ought to oblige – if fit enough.
I have no idea if she is.
First Instinct is NR as at 8.48am (bad scope).
We only lost three at the overnight stage here – Washington Heights, Azure Angel and Miss Attitude – and at one point I thought First Instinct was going to be another (she is now – see above).
She was confirmed some time after William Haggas made his other Saturday entries.
I am not sure why, but it was good to see…
What I said about her on Tuesday holds true here, so I’ll repeat it:
“I was reasonably encouraged by her return in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket, behind all-the-way winner Night Raider, as she was disadvantaged by her track position there (badly drawn) and I imagine the ground was plenty lively enough for her, too.
“And hopefully that was a planned stepping stone to this meeting once again.
“The betting suggests it was as she went off a weak 25s chance, and an even weaker 44.88 at Betfair SP.
“Having won at this track as a 2yo, she finished an excellent short-head and ¾ length third to Symbol Of Honour and Arabian Dusk in the 6f Sandy Lane here last season (against much higher-rated opposition) – Timeform called it good to firm there, to be fair – and then she improved to beat Shagraan in a Group 3 over 5f at Newbury on officially good to soft ground in September.
“Timeform called it soft that day though and, although clearly ground versatile, it sounds like connections feel she is best with a bit of dig, so the weather can do what it likes. Certainly the Newbury win was her best performance form-wise and on the clock, and I’d like soft ground for her again ideally. over this trip.
“You can forgive her run in the Abbaye on her final start in 2025 as she had no chance from the widest stall in 18, though she actually ran well enough in the circumstances.
“It is interesting that they are keeping a Group 3-winning filly in training at four, so connections clearly think there is improvement in there.”
She has actually drifted to 25s in six places as at 12.30pm on Thursday, which has rather surprised me, so I have gone in again, win-only.
That 25s didn’t last unfortunately and she now is best at 18s (in three places as at 1.30pm), which I think is acceptable, too.
As I also mentioned in my Tuesday ante-post column, I fully respect the claims of 10/1 chance Getreadytorumble. I have had a small go at him too, and hopefully being drawn low is the place to be (he is in one, and First Instinct is in three – and that isn’t far away from Night Raider and Jakajaro).
It is difficult to believe he went off 10/3 for a 4-runner Brighton maiden last June – I think I may have attended that meeting, but maybe the annual Racing Post/Greyhound reunion was later in the month – and after winning there he went through the levels, and ended up with an excellent length third to Shagraan and Beautiful Diamond in Listed company at Ascot.
He possibly looked an unlucky loser when third to the weekend winner Mission Central on his return at Naas last month, meeting all sorts of trouble before getting going all too late, and the expected easier ground here ( it could well dry to good/good to soft by race-time, but it looked plenty testing enough on Thursday and certainly so on times) is another plus for him.
I am happy to go in two-handed here at the current odds of 25s and 10s, for all it is a very open race, which is why it is 6s the field at best prices.
Getreadytotherumble is still 9s at 5.49am on Friday and that won’t last.
Neolithic is a NR.
You’d have thought that Gstaad would have had to have gone significantly backwards since his Guineas second to be losing this, as a best-priced quote of [1/2] underlines (general 4/9 chance).
He may have got his arse handed to him at Newmarket by Bow Echo but the winner could be exceptional and it was 8 lengths back to the third, Distant Storm.
A revised mark of 120 for Gstaad – and 126 for Bow Echo – shows you how highly the UK handicappers rated that Classic.
Of course, it could be a case of a different day, a different course, different ground and a different result – and, for all we know, Gstaad could have been fully revved up for Newmarket.
Distant Storm, ridden by Bow Echo’s jockey Billy Loughnane as William Buick is suspended, is his main rival on all known 2yo and 3yo form, and his stable is in better form than they were at the start of the month, while the first-time cheekpieces on the horse are an interesting addition as Charlie Appleby is always to be respected in this area (see first-time headgear stats below).
And, let’s face it, Distant Storm has a lot of ground to make up on the favourite from Newmarket, so they are definitely worth a whirl for the [5/1] second favourite.
I wouldn’t be inclined to chase a bet here, as you are basically banking on Gstaad regressing badly here, or one of his nine rivals improving markedly, if you want to take him on.
Or a combination of both.
History tells us the former is a possible scenario, as Magna Grecia only finished fifth in this race after winning the Guineas by 2 ½ lengths back in 2019, but I’d be inclined to leave this race alone myself.
There are plenty of credible each-way alternatives to the favourite – but perhaps too many.
Distant Storm is a glaringly obvious each-way play at [5/1], though I see plenty are making that case for Greenham winner Alparslan, who missed the Guineas, at 9s.
Zinc White is a NR as at 6.27am (going).
Hermetic looks a cracking each way bet at [15/2], four places, in here if you have a direct line into Stoke, but he is also that price elsewhere too for the more realistic and even [13/2] looks acceptable.
This well-connected Sea The Stars half-brother to recent French Group 2 winner No Lunch cost current connections 105,000 euros at the sales in November, and he obviously showed promise in France himself, winning two from four (over 1m4f and 2m) in the Provinces.
And I thought he ran a cracking race on his first start for Ian Williams over 1m4f at York, finishing fourth of 17 and sticking on well having been up there throughout (did best of those who forced it) , and the handicapper did right by him by dropping him 1lb.
Up to 2m here, I can see him running a big race, as there will surely still be dig in the ground by race-time looking at Thursday’s action at the track.
The opening 10s yesterday was something of a gift, and I can easily see him going off at half those odds.
Hermetic at 15/2 to 13/2 each way in 4.05pm Haydock
(I have also backed, to any meaningful degree, Spoof, Spicy Marg, First Instinct and Getreadytorumble – Spoof and First Instinct are now NRs)
GOING: Good
Soil Moisture 45.7%
Saturday course update: 3.4mm rain Friday – Monday 17.4mm rain Monday night into Tuesday 1.3mm Tuesday night A warm and sunny day.
Watering: 8mm on the Straight on Friday
Yr.no latest (4.39am Saturday): Hot, warm and sunny (up to 26 degrees)
GOING: Good to soft, good in places
Round: 5.8
Inside straight Inside 5.4. Centre 4.9 Outside 4.8
Soil moisture: 44%
Saturday course update: Warm and sunny spells Saturday 20°C. Max temp on Friday was 25.39°C. 32mm last 10 days. 63mm in May.
Yr.no latest (4.39am Saturday): Dry and warm (19-22 degrees)
GOING: Good, good to firm in places
Readings in Home Straight; Far Side – 6.4; Centre – 6.6; Stands Side – 6.6
Forecast wind speed and direction at 1.30pm Saturday: Westerly 8mph gusting to 20mph
Moisture Meter reading 39%
Saturday course update: Dry overnight and a dry, bright Saturday morning with broken cloud. 0.4mm rain in light drizzle early Thursday morning, recent rainfall of 14mm rain Tuesday, making 17.4mm since the Dante Meeting. Met Office Forecast; Saturday – dry with good sunny spells and a light westerly breeze, 22 degrees Live links to the Met Office and our Weather Station are available at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk Home Page, click through for full Going report.
Yr.no latest (4.39am Saturday): Generally dry and warm (21-22 degrees)
23 May 8.00am – Following a dry day & selective watering on Round course, The Curragh is good, good to yielding in places. Dry & warm with temperatures up to 22 degrees
Yr.no latest (4.39am Saturday): overcast but pretty warm (18-19 degrees)
2.20pm Haydock: Law Court, Aqua Bear, Cool Molly, Suddenly I See, The Resdev Scholar, Luzon Heights, Delinquent, Mayaada
2.30pm – Royal Ascot 2yo races – The Bonfire Of The Vanities Your Song is…
ROYAL ASCOT Going: Good to firm Going Stick – Stands side: 8.6, Centre: 8.6,…
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