TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY’s ITV action at Doncaster and Cheltenham – very wet week in store (but subject to change)

SUNDAY MORNING (10.08am)

Balding has a live 25-1 chance in the 2yo Group 1 next Saturday – if he runs

Andrew Balding will be really pleased to note that his trainers’ title rival Aidan O’Brien has just the 18 of the 32 currently in Doncaster’s 155k-to-the-winner Group 1 Futurity on Saturday (I have just checked on the log-in BHA site and none of the 32 have been scratched as of 6.16pm).

Balding has two entries; Gran Dia and Royal Quest.

A big day in store?

Gran Dia, a 380,000 guineas yearling, was visually impressive on his debut over 1m at Salisbury on good to soft at the start of the month, finishing off the race with real gusto,  and I wouldn’t lay him at 25s or the general 20s myself , for all I have no idea if this is the plan or that the bare form of his success is any great shakes (actually, it isn’t – the runner-up was humped next time, finishing 9th of 11).

His jockey was of the opinion it was soft ground at Salisbury (the going was changed to soft, good to soft in places after the race, so he was right) and his pedigree suggests testing conditions should suit him well, which could come in rather handy if he runs next weekend.

His dam put up her best performance when winning a Group 2 on officially soft/heavy ground, and the sire’s progeny dig dig, if you know what I mean.

With O’Brien having so many entries, this field is surely going to be shaved markedly on Monday.

And, if his horses are fit and well, you’d think the Balding pair will stand their ground at the five-day stage.

But I have no idea, so maybe it is best to wait.

False 11/8 ante-post favourite in the likely conditions?

O Brien’s Noble Exhibit is the evens to 11/8 favourite; make of that what you will but he got taken out at Galway on soft ground in September.

If that thought process holds true, given the forecast below, I’d be pretty concerned about him running, let alone winning.

Timeform has his two successes to date coming on good and good to soft ground.

By the way, there is a supplementary stage on Monday.

COURSE DETAILS

DONCASTER (Friday-Saturday)

GOING : Good to soft

Going Stick: N/A

Rails: Innermost line on round, which means for the remainder of the season races over 1m 2f, and 1m 4f have an additional 10yds due to the widening of the jumps track.

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round – Inner

SUNDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry yesterday. 4.2mm rain Thursday, 2.8mm rain Friday. Mainly settled through the weekend and into early next week – predominantly dry with some sunny spells. Becoming more unsettled and uncertain as the week goes on with some showers forecast at times. Current forecast isn’t showing any significant rain but enough to stop it from drying back. Temps 13-14C

Weather (1.45pm Sunday – as ever, likely to change dramatically through the week): Dry Sunday: Monday 9.1mm; Tuesday 8.4mm; Wednesday 7.8mm; Thursday 1,6mm; Friday 27mm; Saturday 8.3mm

CHELTENHAM (Friday-Saturday)

GOING :  Good, good to firm in places

2m4f races to be run on the round course

Going Stick: 7.0, Sunday 11am

(Recently verti-drained)

Rails: Bends on inner line

SUNDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry over the weekend with temperatures of 13-14 degrees. Forecast is dry for Monday during the day and then unsettled for the remainder of the week with temperatures of 11-14 degrees. Rain forecast from the early hours of Tuesday onwards. Some uncertainty over volumes at this stage.

Watering: Watering commenced in August and will continue with the aim of improving the going (10-15mm cycles)

Weather (1.45pm Sunday – as ever, likely to change dramatically throughout the week): Sunday 1.2mm: Monday 2.6mm; Tuesday 15mm; Wednesday 3.6mm; Thursday 14mm; Friday 13mm; Saturday 9.9mm

DOUBLE ENTRIES to follow

12.55pm Doncaster: x

1.10pm Cheltenham: x

1.30pm Doncaster: x

1.45pm Cheltenham: x

2.05pm Doncaster: x

2.20pm Cheltenham: x

2.40pm Doncaster: x

2.55pm Cheltenham: x

3.19pm Doncaster: x

3.30pm Cheltenham: x