TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY’s course details at Doncaster and Kempton – and race-by-race analysis

RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS

1.20pm Doncaster – Amo lining up the ammo again in the annual guessing game – step forward, the Brocklesby…

I’m surprised some bookmakers have priced up the Brocklesby, run in honour of Bill Turner this year, especially as it is not on ITV (at the moment, anyway).

There are currently 22 entries, all unraced 2yos obviously, and Amo’s Blixen Force is the 2s favourite.

The stable are 0-2 with their juveniles in Ireland , but they were second and third in the same Curragh maiden, with one beaten a head at [5/6].

This one is a £110,000 Persian Force colt – that horse actually won this race by 4 3/4 lengths in 2022 – but how this was priced up is anyone’s guess (Amo also won this race last year and had a neck runner in 2023).

In fact, Robson De Aguiar, trainer of Blixen Force, also has Ocean Club (ranges from 4s to 8s) and Salt Lake (priced between 6s and 8s) in here and Rowan Scott is currently jocked up on all three.

All three are by Persian Force, too.

Maybe, Blixen Force is 2s just to run, then….

It sounds like Salt Lake may be the one to miss out, though.

Other trainers who are more than one-handed at the five-day stage are David Evans, Richard Hannon, Adrian Keatley, Kathy Turner (daughter of Bill) and Tony Coyle and Kaine Wood.

I’m working on the basis of it being good to soft at Donny on Saturday.

Maybe with a bit of soft if they get more rain than forecast on Tuesday, with showers to come.

1.50pm Doncaster – Fitness levels will dictate the winner in this deep Listed race

This looks a tasty Listed race at the five-day stage, and it houses the last two winners of this race in Spycatcher and Montassib (the former carries a 5lb penalty, along with Annaf and Art Power).

They head the betting at 4s and 7/2 respectively, both hailing from stables with recent winners to their name (Karl Burke, trainer of Spycatcher, is in very good form from a much bigger sample than the master planner Haggas gadgie).

They are the form duo alongside My Mate Alfie, having his first start for David O’Meara, having been bought out of Ger Lyons’ stable for 250,000 guineas in October. In fact, the O’Meara is best in at these weights.

It’s a deep enough race outside of the top two in the betting then, and fitness will be key here, clearly, with most making their 2026 returns.

Caburn and Divine Libra could go elsewhwere.

20/1 Super Soldier gets a shedload of weight

So not a race for me at this stage, though the only 3yo, Super Soldier, another Burke entry, gets a colossal amount of weight all round here.

He gets 18lb from the penalised horses, and 13lb from the rest.

That a fair chunk for a talented youngster, 102-rated, proven with dig.

I’d definitely back him at 20s if I knew he was an intended runner.

But I don’t. FWIW, Burke’s Spycatcher is currently jocked up but Super Soldier isn’t.

And Burke didn’t mention the horse in an ATR stable tour on March 17. I tend to take that as a positive; others may not.

2.08pm Kempton – Just the nine in this 45k qualifier

The course must have been disappointed to get just nine five-day entries for this valuable 0-100 2m handicap.

But the numbers should hold up – none of the entries has an alternative option this week.

It actually looks a decent handicap if they all rock up, but the ante-post each-way betting is only 1/4 1,2 here.

It would be easy to put up Align The Stars at 14s here, as a horse off a very workable handicap mark of 92 on his return and representing last year’s winning stable, but that is a stand-out price , with 10s and 8s more realistically attainable odds.

2.25pm Doncaster – How has one outfit priced up the Spring Mile?

Obviously we won’t know the make-up of this race until Thursday morning, when we know what has been confirmed for the Lincoln, so I am amazed one bookmaking outfit have priced this up.

How and why?

The double-entered horses in the Lincoln/Spring Mile are Harvey, Cogitate, Sir Paul Ramsey, Knights Gold, Naples, Epictetus, Degale, Milteye, Nyman, On The River, Flying Fletcher and Havana Prince.

2.43pm Kempton – a 100k handicap to ignore at the moment

I’m even more surprised that this Kempton handicap only got 15 entries given this race is worth 100k.

Not many have priced up this race, and those who have are not exactly being generous with their percentages.

Rathgar, Rogue Impact and Triple Double A are also in the 4.o5pm at Doncaster on Sunday.

I’ve no betting opinion at the current odds – the stand-out 6s about El Burhan probably won’t last long, but he is a general two points shorter in the main – so let’s see what the final field brings us.

Hopefully, more generous prices. One outfit has eight horses priced up at between [7/2] and 8s.

Na.

3pm Doncaster – Group 1 winners are unpenalised in this potential cracker

So, the Cammidge Trophy is a tasty Listed race, is it?

Hold my beer, says the Listed Doncaster Mile.

It sounds like the 118-rated Queen Anne winner Docklands is an intended runner before going off for a race in Hong Kong at the end of April, and he heads the betting at [9/4].

Throw in the Sussex Stakes winner Qirat at [9/2], and others such as the race-fit pair of dual course winner Chancellor and Skukuza, and Ten Bob Tony (now entered at the Curragh on Saturday), and this looks more like a very decent Group 2.

Both of the Group 1 winners Docklands and Qirat are unpenalised too, as they didn’t win after their top-tier successes at Ascot and Goodwood respectively and this race is for horses who have not won a Group 1 after August 31 2025 (a strange one, granted).

On the other hand, poor old Chancellor carries a 3lb penalty for a Listed Southwell win in February, though he is at least rock-hard fit and 7s in a place (again, [11/2] is a more representative price).

10/1 chance Ten Bob Tony now entered in Gladness Stakes too (and sounds like he is going to Ireland)

Ten Bob Tony, winner first time up last season at Haydock, looks fairly priced at 10s, for all there are doubts, not least the Group 1 opposition.

And now a bigger one has surfaced on Tuesday afternoon.

Third in the Group 1 Foret in October, he also won on his seasonal debut in April 2024, though his two runs at this track have been a touch underwhelming and his stamina for 1m is not copper-bottomed on the evidence to date so far, a fourth in the German 2,000 Guineas notwithstanding.

And he has just been entered in Saturday’s Gladness Stakes at the Curragh over 7f, which may be more his trip.

It sounds like he is going to Ireland.

So he is not fairly priced. Don’t back him.

3.15pm Kempton – Top two dominate this race, too

I’d be lying if I said all-weather betting interested me, and certainly not ante-post all-weather betting, at that.

It seems bookmakers are not that bothered either, as only four outfits have priced this up.

There is no surprise to see the form horses Survie (bought for an eye-watering 1.9m bags in December 2025) and Cathedral dominate the betting at 13/8 and 9/4 respectively, with 8s bar.

The 50s poke Electrifarhh is the only double-entered horse, and maybe dual course and distance winner Glittering Surf is a tad overpriced at 14s for each-way backers.

But. No. Interest. Whatsoever. In. Truth.

3.35pm Doncaster – Lincoln big two are 6/4 combined to take this

La Botte and Eternal Force are [7/2] and [5/1] respectively to win this – and unfortunately (if you like looking away from the top of the market) you really can see a strong case for both. They are 6/4 combined to take this 77k-to-the-winner handicap.

But surely they can’t get much shorter than their current odds in what will be a full field of 22 (bar late NRs).

La Botte is undoubtedly the sexy one in here.

Fit and sexy too, after that obvious tee-up job in the Wolverhampton trial at the start of the month , when he couldn’t have shaped any better from the position he continually found himself in right from the start until closing to within two lengths at the line.

Having just his sixth start here, and having straight course form after that narrow second in the Britannia, he has huge upside. And the trainer reckons he works well with Docklands, for all the Queen Anne winner isn’t one to knock your eye out on the gallops, apparently.

Soft (ish) ground would be an unknown, though. He has never raced on anything softer than good and Timeform called the Royal Ascot run as having come on firm ground. That’s a fair concern at [7/2].

Eternal Force represents the peerless William Haggas, who has netted this race twice in the last seven years, and five times in total.  He also has Sea Force in this.

Nuts Off, Game On

Eternal Force has had just the seven runs to date and his form has taken off after having his nuts off, notching up a cojones-less hat-trick with a three-length win at Haydock in October.

He went up 8lb for that but he is clearly an unexposed and well-bred son of Dubawi.

And Maureen Haggas said the following immediately after that Haydock win: “Eternal Force is improving but he’s still learning. He was less green than he was last time but he’s a baby. He’s a nice horse who’s definitely going the right way and will stay in training. He’ll go up a few more pounds for that and could be one for the Lincoln.”

You have to give him the utmost respect here.

His last three wins have come on ground Timeform called good, good to soft and soft, so he has all going bases covered there.

You don’t know how much the opposition have improved over the winter – the likes of Rogue Diplomat clearly has a hugely progressive profile too, as does Shout, while last year’s fifth and 20s poke Galeron has a solid enough profile and excellent course form (he is 7lb lower than when beaten 2 lengths in this last season) – but I am torn as to whether 6/4 combined about the top two remains an attractive bet.

Maybe it is.

Possibly the aforementioned, ground-versatile Galeron (5lb claimer Jack Callan jocked up) and Valvano at 20s are the best of the outsiders here, but I am going to sit on this race for now. You never know, they may get more rain than is forecast at Donny and the complexion of the race may change.

And the betting terms for the better, too.

All firms are currently betting 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4.

Well-in

Incidentally, for those likely to get in, The Lost King is 1lb well-in under his 5lb penalty after beating subsequent winner First Principle in that Wolverhampton trial, in which La Botte came fourth.

So the form case for this 16s poke is fair. If he runs, that is.

It seems unclear if he will (and in a very illiquid market, he is currently 23.0 on the exchange), as all-weather finals day is apparently also in the mix for him.

SATURDAY’S COURSE DETAILS

DONCASTER (two-day meeting starting on Saturday)

GOING: Good to soft, soft in places

Majority of the track is GOOD TO SOFT, with only a few places where it is slightly softer.

GOING STICK: 5.5, Thursday 7.45am

Rails: No additional distances

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round – Inner

Thursday morning course update: 2.4mm rain Tuesday. Wednesday – dry. Thursday – dry with sunny spells and a gentle northerly breeze – 10C Friday – overcast with the chance of showers at various points through the day – 12C with a gentle westerly breeze. Saturday – mainly dry with sunny spells – 10C

WEATHER (yr.no latest, 7.45am Thursday):  Dry Thursday, 2.5mm Friday, 0.4mm Saturday

KEMPTON

GOING: Standard to slow

DOUBLE ENTRIES – pay attention to horses in bold

1.50pm Doncaster (14 entries: max field of 22 ):  Caburn, Divine Libra

2.08pm Kempton (9 entries; max field of 14): NONE

2.25pm Doncaster (43 entries: max field of 22 ): Harvey, Cogitate, Sir Paul Ramsey (due to run on Friday), Knights Gold, Naples, Epictetus, Degale (due to run on Friday), Nyman (set to run on Friday), Flying Fletcher (set to run on Friday), Havana Prince (set to run on Friday)

2.43pm Kempton (15 entries; max field of 14):  Rathgar, Rogue Impact, Triple Double A

3pm Doncaster (12 entries: max field of 22):  Ten Bob Tony

3.15pm Kempton (14 entries; max field of 14): Electrifarhh

3.35pm Doncaster (65 entries; max field of 22 ): Harvey, Cogitate, Sir Paul Ramsey (due to run on Friday), Knights Gold, Naples, Epictetus, Degale (due to run on Friday), Nyman (set to run on Friday), Flying Fletcher (set to run on Friday), Havana Prince (set to run on Friday)

FIVE-DAY PACE MAPS

1.50pm Doncaster :  Art Power, James’s Delight (prom), Myal, Unique Journey

2.08pm Kempton : Lavender Hill Mob, Align The Stars, Blindedbythelights, Anniversary

2.25pm Doncaster : Harvey, Cadarn, Sir Paul Ramsey?, Vincent Rocks, Mezcala, Empirestateofmind, Epictetus, Degale, Indian Spirit, Milteye, Empire Of Light, Uniting (prom), Flying Fletcher

2.43pm Kempton:  Military Academy, King’s Code (prom), Gamrai, Night Breeze?

3pm Doncaster : Excellent Believe (prom), Linwood, Qirat, Release The Storm, Volterra

3.15pm Kempton : All Moonshine, American Gal?, Glistening?, Radiant Beauty (prom) , Sweet Princess

3.35pm Doncaster: Botanical, Urban Lion, Tarkhan, Eternal Force?, Valvano, Harvey, Cadarn, Sir Paul Ramsey?, Vincent Rocks, Mezcala, Empirestateofmind, Epictetus, Degale, Indian Spirit, Milteye, Empire Of Light, Uniting (prom), Flying Fletcher

TRAINERFORM (form going into Wednesday’s racing)

Good: James Owen, Andrew Balding (flying along), Jack Channon (small sample), Hugo Palmer, Kevin Philippart De Foy (small sample; no winners), James Fanshawe, Kevin Ryan (no winners), Karl Burke, David O’Meara, Jamie Osborne, Michael Bell (very small sample), John and Sean Quinn (small sample)

Fair: George Boughey (fair/moderate), Charlie Johnston,  Ian Williams, David Evans, Brian Ellison, Mick Appleby, Tim Easterby, Richard Hannon, James Tate, Daniel James Murphy, Simon and Ed Crisford, Tony Coyle and Kaine Wood, Charlie Appleby (fair/moderate), Gary and Josh Moore, Roger Fell (no winners), Newland and Insole

Moderate: Ollie Sangster (one near-miss)

Don’t know (small samples): Sir Mark Prescott, Ralph Beckett, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Keiran Burke, Harry Eustace, John and Thady Gosden, Ed Walker (one 11-8 winner), Eve Johnson Houghton, Owen Burrows, Charles Hills,  Clive Cox (one winner), William Haggas (one winner), Steph Hollinshead, Brian Meehan, Ed Dunlop, Dominic Ffrench Davis, Tony Martin, David Menuisier, Brian Toomey, Geoffrey Harker, Stephen Thorne, Peter Chapple-Hyam, Richard and Peter Fahey, David and Nicola Barron, Harriet Bethell, TJ Kent, Grant Tuer (one winner)