By Tony Calvin - 7 May 2026
I am not sure you will get the full written works on each race as I have a Thursday morning appointment which may drag on, but we will see.
But I had an early morning look at the Chester Cup before I dashed out of the door at 8.30am and here it is.
It didn’t drag on too much, thankfully, so normal service has been resumed below.
Lips Freedom is a NR at 9.22pm ((going).
The ground is now good, good to soft in places.
I am not sure I am entirely happy with that.
Chemistry is an interesting outsider at 22s (the 33s was taken on Wednesday, and the 25s on Thursday morning, just before this went live).
A 30,000gns purchase out of Aidan O’Brien’s stable in October 2024, he showed one decent piece of form for Ivan Furtado, finishing fourth off a 5lb higher mark than this over 2m at Southwell in December 2025.
He then got switched to Jennie Candlish this season and he won, full of running at the business end, on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield last month. It was only a maiden hurdle but the runner-up had shown decent form beforehand.
That at least confirms his current well-being and he makes his Flat debut for Candlish off a mark of 90 here.
He was rated as high as 106 when trained in Ireland, and was on a mark of 103 when he joined Furtado.
He was a fair sort when with O’Brien then, getting a Listed race in the stewards room and then finishing second in a very valuable 1m5f handicap at Leopardstown (off 100).
We don’t know about his stamina (he was a poor third in that 2m2f Pontefract conditions race on his debut for Furtado) but the formbook confirms he is a good ground horse and he certainly has a fair mark to play with, and a very acceptable draw in three, too.
At 22s in a couple of places, he looks well worth a speculative nibble.
He could be one of three pace angles in here, along with Blindedbythelights, wearing blinkers for the first time (see trainer stats below), next to him in four, and Moon Over Miami in seven.
One final word on this race – please do get your money back if you punted anything ante-post that was balloted out (list below).
One of the reasons I take the time and effort to do the stats and info section is to help punters, so please make sure you get your money back if you are due it.
Bookmakers often need a hefty nudge with balloted out horses, unfortunately.
Clouds Hill is the latest NR at 11.05am (going), to go with Norfolk Havoc and Savvy Victory.
The Andrew Balding stable is becoming even more of a training powerhouse this year (64 winners going into Thursday’s racing), and his Respond is available at a top price of [15/8].
He is a fit, in-form, forward-goer from stall two, so what is not to like?
Perhaps the all-important price.
El Burhan is currently the solid second favourite at[9/2]. He won a 7f+ handicap at this meeting last year and went on to confirm himself well suited to this 1m2f trip, rounding off his campaign with a thumping Ayr win in September (went up 6lb for it).
He made a pleasing return at Kempton last month (finished fifth, with Respond in third) – he was snatched up over 1f, so you can mark up that run too – and I’d probably be in his camp at [9/2] rather than Respond’s at [15/8].
Of the outsiders Savvy Victory, in four, makes the most appeal at 25s, as he is down to a winnable mark of 96.
He didn’t run well at Pontefract last time but his two starts around here are a positive as to his chances.
Indeed, he finished a length second in this race off an 6lb higher mark in 2023.
All worthless now as he is a NR (going), as at 4.18pm. Could have been a bit premature that.
Bravais was due to run in the 4.10pm at Chester on Thursday (was withdrawn though).
Ascot have been throwing down the water, but the current ground is still good, good to firm in places, with a dry forecast in the next 24 hours.
It is going to be lively then.
This 10-runner 3yo 7f handicap is very tricky – as all are 3yo handicaps at this time of the year – and I wouldn’t have a betting opinion on it.
However, Albaydaa looks a highly plausible [4/1] chance after a promising comeback third over 6f at Newmarket, and the step back up to this trip will suit.
I was going to say that stall eight is not ideal, but then I remembered this is Ascot and not Chester….
As maidens go, this 1m4f+ contest is pretty decent, but clearly there is precious little information to go on.
Joulany is the obvious one to beat on form (and on the clock) after a close third over 1m2f in a Newbury novice on his return and this brother to Al Aasy is bred to step up again over this longer trip.
He was never going to be missed in the market though, and he is best at [6/5] here – actually there is a bit of [5/4] – with Galiyan next in the betting at [6/4].
Just the seven runners though, so we are betting 1/4 the odds 1,2 for each-way punters.
You have to clearly fear Lambourn and Bay City Roller, [13/8] and [10/3] respectively at top prices in this 1m2f+ Group 2 – the latter carries a 5lb penalty – but there are nine runners and the [15/2] about Royal Rhyme looks a good each-way option against them at [15/2].
That is available in three places as this race analysis goes live.
The more general 7s is fine.
I mention nine runners, because I like a bit of wriggle/wiggle room when it comes to non-runners (and he could be one, I suppose). I’d like more.
The formbook tells you he was beaten 6 1/4 lengths by Starford at the Curragh last time , but that only tells half the story.
If that.
He looked to be winning easily there at one stage – I was surprised he didn’t trade shorter than 1.9 in running – but then stopped as if shot dead (can I still say that?) and beat a hasty retreat in the closing stages.
He has operated well at a Group 1 level before in 2024 and 2025 – his third in the Champion Stakes in 2024 is a match for all of these in here form-wise – and he has a huge each-way chance if at his best.
And a clear winning shot.
I just hope it was fitness that saw him stop so suddenly at the Curragh last time, and not a more serious underlying issue. And Timeform did call it heavy there, so maybe that just sapped him late doors on his reappearance run, his first since May 2025.
The irony is that he loves plenty of dig, but he can operate on good/good to firm ground.
Maybe Karl Burke may save him for another day if he thinks it is too lively for his horse. But it won’t be if they put on 10mm tonight (they put on 8mm).
We will see.
Given O’Brien-Moore are a winner machine at Chester, it is probably no surprise to see Lambourn into [11/8] and a general [5/4].
We are down to 12 runners here, so traditional each way 1,2,3 terms will apply in a few places.
Noble Consort is a NR (bad scope – drawn 10), as is Queus Dos (going – drawn 16) and Kirkdale (going – drawn 14). And Aisling Oscar is the latest one out at 12.27pm (going – drawn 13).
I think I better take a pull while this Thursday ground nonsense is sorted….
Anyway, the racing goes ahead at Chester, so here goes.
Manila Scouse can be a real rocket out of the gates when he gets it right – and if he does, then he has no pace rivals around him from trap two (Rosenpur in five is his nearest potential speed bump).
It took him five starts to hit the winning groove last season (finished last on his first two 2025 outings) so that’s a concern. As is the fact that he may need a bit more ease in the ground, but possibly 10mm of watering on Thursday night would sort that (I’ll take the 8mm for him).
He did run very well in defeat on his return in 2024 and 2023 – and certainly his current mark of 78 looks eminently exploitable – and he has enough form on good and quicker to satisfy me from a betting perspective.
He is possibly more effective at 5f with that early turbo, but he stays 6f well (has two wins over that trip, both off a 1lb higher mark than this), so he should be fine to hold on if he blasts off.
He has run well in defeat on both starts here, so 10s (four places are available at that price) looks on the big side.
I have backed him.
Royal Rhyme each way at 15/2 in 2.35pm at Chester
Chemistry each way at 22/1 in 3.05pm at Chester
Manila Scouse at 10/1 each way in 3.40pm at Chester
GOING STICK: 7.2, Friday 7.15am (was 7.4, Thursday 7.15am)
Friday course update: 0.6mm rain last night. 10.8mm rain over the last 7 days. It is currently forecast to be dry through until mid afternoon. There is a 50% chance rain from 3pm with highs of 16’C and a 7mph Easterly breeze.
Watering: Full course vertidrained. 4mm applied on the 28th April evening. 3mm applied overnight 29th April. 3mm applied overnight 30th April from the 1.5f – 6f. 3mm applied 6th May night. 8mm applied last night. 4mm applied from the winning line to the pull up bend and the turn into the home straight in the early hours of this morning.
Yr.no latest (6.43am Friday): Dry and 16 degrees for racing
Friday course update: Dry overnight to Friday morning. A generally couple of days are forecast with an occasional shower possible. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Watering: Watered Straight 8mm on Thursday and 8mm on Tuesday. Watered Round course 3mm overnight to Friday, Wednesday and Tuesday mornings and whole track 3mm overnight to Monday. Irrigated 26mm on Straight and 20mm on Round course through the previous week.
Yr.no latest (6.43am Friday): Dry and 18-20 degrees (light showers maybe)
3.05pm Chester: Hamsiyann, Sax Appeal, Pole Star Tribal Star Who’s Glen, Kate O’Riley, Kingstonian, Mr Escobar King’s Scholar, Maxident, Call My Bluff Carlton, Shrimp Shady, Imperial Sovereign, Gibside, It’s All About You, Eben Zaabeel, Legendary Day, Morning Air, Humble Spark, Wahraan, St Faz, Sir Callisto, Francesco Baracca, Boxing Great, Dino Bellagio, Dreams Adozen, Loki, Dance Time, Gooloogong, Day Trader, Marbuzet, Pergamon, Bittalemon, Melon, Wise Counsellor , Catch Fire, Vaguely Royal, Fleurman, Goin’ , Action Pact, Bruant , Zimmerman, Atheneum, Zuzukel
3.40pm Chester: Top Juggler, Supreme King, Blind Beggar, True Promise The Flying Seagull, Charlie Mason, Azure Zain, Mission Command, This Farh, Ran Amok, Moonstone Boy, Rock Opera, Spendmore Lane, Maharajas Express, Harry’s Halo, Phoenix Moon, Trust Sergei
Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Lambourn, 2.35pm Chester; 14-111 (since 2016)
Sir Mark Prescott blinkers; Blindedbythelights; 3.05pm Chester; 22-151 (2009)
1.30pm Chester: Great David (6), Triple Double A (3), Echalar (5) – Norwalk Havoc NR (not eaten up – drawn 11 of 14), as is Savvy Victory (drawn 4). Clouds Hill is now a NR as well (going – drawn 9)
1.50pm Ascot: Angel Of Anfield (3), Albaydaa (8), Queen Tamara (5)
2.05pm Chester: Distorted Truth (7)
2.35pm Chester: Bay City Roller (7), Lambourn (2)
3.05pm Chester: Moon Over Miami (7), Chemistry (3), Blindedbythelights (4) – Lips Freedom is a NR
3.40pm Chester: Rosenpur (5), Miraculous (8), Manila Scouse (2), Paws For Thought (9) – Noble Consort is a NR (bad scope – drawn 10), as is Queus Dos (going – drawn 16) and Kirkdale (going – drawn 14) and Aisling Oscar (going – drawn 13)
NB: Old Is Gold is a NR in 4.45pm (not eaten up – also drawn 15 of 15); as is Inca Heights (colic – drawn 13) and Playtime in 5.20pm (travel – drawn 15 of 16)
Good: Andrew Balding (big sample), John and Thady Gosden, James Owen (very good – 25/1 winner on Wednesday, and successful again with a double on Thursday), Aidan O’Brien (flying again in the big races on Thursday), Karl Burke, William Haggas, Roger Varian, Owen Burrows, Charlie Fellowes, George Scott, James Fanshawe, Brian Smart, Andrew Kinirons (very small sample but one 10-1 winner from three runners), Gemma Tutty, David Evans, Hugo Palmer
Fair: Tom Dascombe (one winner; seven recent runners), Ian Williams (double on Wednesday), David Loughnane, Ralph Beckett, Richard and Peter Fahey (double on Thursday), Jessie Harrington, Kevin Phillipart De Foy (fair/good), Tim Easterby (two 4-1 winners on Monday, followed by a 10-1 scorer), Adrian Keatley, Adrian McGuinness (4-1 winner on Tuesday), Julie Camacho, Marco Botti, Lemos De Souza, Eve Johnson Houghton, George Boughey (Thursday winner), Richard Hughes, David Menuisier, Joseph O’Brien (fair/good), Ed Bethell, Iain Jardine, Ruth Carr (winner on Thursday), James Tate, Charlie Johnston, Ewan Whillans, Mick Appleby, Sean Woods, Donald McCain
Moderate: Tom Clover, Brian Ellison, Charles Hills, Harry Charlton (small sample), Mark Loughnane (winner on Wednesday), Dan Horsford (but 25-1 chance beaten a nose), Stan Moore, Tony Martin, Sir Mark Prescott
1.25pm Newbury – 13/2 West Wind Blows too big here I’d say Newbury were relieved…
2.2opm York – A tough punting Mission to undertake Now, this is exactly the kind…
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