By Tony Calvin - 1 August 2025
Trainers and owners baffle me sometimes.
Toca Madera is a good-ground horse, probably best on quick, and the going has already dried out to good to soft, good in places, at Goodwood this morning.
And I imagine it may be predominantly good come race-time with the weather set fair.
But they have pulled him out of a 250k handicap, maybe to wait for the Racing League on August 7?
Similar comments apply to the two NRs in the 3.45pm so far, too (see below).
And the one in the opener, who has let at least £1,350 go begging.
Go figure.
We lost [11/2] chance Mount Atlas early on Friday morning (lame), so we are down to six.
I’m not going to pretend I am going to have a bet in this, and I don’t have any issue with the penalized Al Aasy heading the market at [6/4], but I have Candleford down as the most likely leader in here and that could be a big plus in this small field.
That said, he hasn’t led outright in his last three starts, but surely William Haggas will look at the pace map here and tell Tom Marquand to crack on.
The last time the horse made the running he didn’t come back when winning at the Curragh last year.
He finished last on his return after a year absence in the Hardwicke but he got back on the winning trail at Beverley last time and I’d argue he is the best bet in the race at [11/2] – if you want one.
We are down to five now as Raja Raja has been pulled out due to the going.
He would have got £1,350 for finishing last.
A full field of 14 for this 1m6f handicap (see balloted out horses below – get your money back),
Dancing In Paris doesn’t have the handicap upside of the market leaders French Duke and Sam Hawkens but I think he is a very solid each-way proposition at 10s, four places, or 9s, five places.
Indeed, he is 11s with one firm, who offer four places.
Well, solid if Marco Ghiani doesn’t have another brain freeze again, as he did when he went too hard from the front on this horse last time and paid for it badly late on.
Actually, Ghiani definitely won’t be making the same mistake again as he is riding at Newmarket on Saturday and Saffie Osborne takes over in the saddle.
Dancing In Paris had earlier run two crackers when just touched off the in the Northumberland Plate and when a narrow third to French Master and Story Horse here previously. (Master Builder, who reopposes here, was in fourth).
He is 3lb higher today but I’d say that is fair enough and, like I said, I think he is solid each-way proposition, particularly if you can get that 11s (10s is obviously fine, as is the 9s with the extra two places).
The 10s, four places, is available with 10 firms. He is also [16.0] on Betfair as this goes live.
Feigning Madness, back to a more suitable trip, has been the mover from 25s since the betting opened, and the 14s in three places is coming under pressure as I hit publish.
I can see that, all right.
The ground has eased to good to soft at Newmarket after another 4.6mm of rain so far at Newmarket.
A couple of underwhelming ITV fillers from Newmarket in truth, especially this five-runner 40k 6f fillies’ nursery.
That said, I wouldn’t have had Ruby’s Angel down as the 8s outsider of the field.
Her sire Starman is doing very well with his first crop, with Venetian Sun and Lady Iman his standard-bearers so far, and this filly may have got in here lightly-enough off 78.
Maybe not on her third to Rogue Sensation and Awaafi (also in here) over 6f at Haydock last time, but her previous 5f efforts at Newmarket and Ascot earlier in the summer.
She had recent scorer Sayidah Hard Spun ½ length behind her at Ascot in May and she is now 8lb better off, and her stable continues to chug along very nicely.
The 6f trip is a question mark though judged on her relatively weak finish over this trip at Haydock last time, and the early 8s was taken too, with [13/2] the best price now, available in just one place.
In Group 2 terms , this is a very winnable race, with Term Of Endearment the top-rated filly on a mark of just 106.
She is one of the two pace angles in here, along with Allonsy, and I do think she is the one to beat and the right favourite at [3/1], but I thought Waardah was definitely worth chancing at the generally available [13/2].
Owen Burrows is a great placer of his small string (five from nine recently) and he could have a big improver on his hands here.
Waardah needs to improve clearly and has never raced beyond 1m2f before, but the manner in which she poured it on late to win a Listed race over 1m2f in the soft here last time by nearly 3 lengths suggested this 1m6f Group 2 prize was well worth trying.
And this is just her fifth start.
This is, of course, a much different test against much better horses – the horse she beat last time finished last of six on the all-weather next time, and the four that followed them home were also chinned next time (the seventh won though…) – but I’ll take my chances at [13/2].
A modest bet, though.
Oxford Comma finished a distant third in the 2m4f+ handicap at Goodwood today, so she must be considered a doubtful runner.
That would bring us down to eight….(she was pulled out at 6.26am on Saturday)
The first thing I would urge you to do if you bet ante-post is to check out the balloted-out horse list below.
Money back on those then, and I’ll probably be happy to come out of this 28-runner 6f Stewards Cup level myself, if truth be told.
I backed Toca Madera at 40s and 33 each way on Friday, and he remains my only bet in the race. The 40s is still available in three places, with one firm offering seven places (the six elsewhere is probable more accessible).
I have also backed him at [55.0] and [60.0] win only. I may look to lay a bit back in running as maybe 5f suits him a touch better.
This looks like the first time Colin Keane has ridden for Brian Meehan, and the trainer has a decent record with first-time cheekpieces, which Toca Madera sports (see below).
The obvious downside is that he is due to race off a 5lb lower mark in future, but I think the price compensates there and he has been running well enough, anyway.
And he has been rated 6lb higher in the past too.
He will enjoy the drying ground and, for all he is 5lb wrong here, he is only 2lb higher than when winning over 6f at Windsor last August (went up 3lb after that) and he also has a length third of 16 at 66s in a 5f handicap at this meeting on his dance card.
He is my dart at this from his midfield draw, anyway.
Keane has options, as they say.
The Sporting Life duo of Linfoot and Brocklebank have seen off all of the 16s about Completely Random this afternoon, and most of the 14s.
That was the other I was looking at, but I am happy with a solo run.
I am not even going to get that now as Toca Madera was bizarrely pulled out at 7.55am on Saturday because of the “going”.
He is a good-ground horse and the going has dried out to good to soft, good in places, this morning. And I imagine it may be predominantly good come race-time.
Go figure.
Just the eight runners for a 50k pot that could have housed 20 runners.
I know I should stop saying that as very few races fill these days, but the lack of depth in black-type races in this country is increasingly worrying.
This is a Listed race but, take away with the 107-rated Sioux Life, the next best fillies and mares are on official marks of 96.
Sioux Life is probably your starting point then but that is based on her deep-ground Italian Group race wins in 2024 and certainly not on her two UK starts since joining Marco Botti this season.
This is eminently winnable and Sioux Life is not even favourite at [9/2], with Silent Love, the least exposed of these after just three runs, currently topping the betting at [7/2].
It looks a trappy dead-eight, with Star Of Light and Karmology the pace angles, with the latter arguably the most attractively-priced here on the balance of her form at 5s. That’s the bet, if you must.
We had another maximum field (of 20) in this 7f handicap before Wolf Of Badenoch came out on Friday morning – see balloted out horses below – and this is one seriously competitive handicap.
In its way, every big as difficult as the Stewards’ Cup.
I know a forward-goer from a low draw is hardly the kind of horse the bookmakers will be generous about, but hopefully William Buick decides to galvanise Hallasan early once again, from stall four.
If he does, then he is a fair each-way poke at 20s in two places, but 18s and 16s is fine (currently 26.0 on Betfair as this goes live).
In fact, the 18s, six places, with three firms is the best port of call if you dock there.
He hasn’t pulled up any trees in three starts since coming back from a winning spell in Meydan at the turn of the year, but he has been dropped 5lb for them and he wasn’t seen to best effect from the rear at Newmarket last time.
He is a big player off 96 on his 2yo form. He made all at Nottingham over 6f and then he went on to beat Camille Pissarro in that hugely valuable Donny sales race over an extended 6f on good to soft (Timeform called it good).
I’m going to ignore the fact that three firms (one outfit) actually put him in at 50s on Thursday morning….
The Fingal Raven is a NR at 7.41am (going) but no Rule 4 there. Spirit Of Farhh has also been pulled out because of the ground at 8am; he was a 12s and 14s poke, so maybe some firms will apply a 5p Rule 4 there.
Both of these would have been well suited by the expected good ground. As would ground-versatile Fondo Blanco, pulled out at 11.53am because of the going.
Good luck.
GOING: Good to soft, good in places
Going stick : 6.4, Saturday 7.20am
Stand 6.2; Centre: 6.0; Far: 6.3
Saturday morning course update: 22mm rain last Saturday and Sunday 0.2mm rain Thursday night. 37mm on Thursday 31st A sunny and breezy day today. Current weather details from our weather station available here; https://bit.ly/2E6dYhB
Rails: All races run on inner lines
Stalls:5f, 6f, 7f, 1m; Centre 1m3f & 1m4f; Outside, Rest; Inside (2m4f Flip Start)
Weather: Dry Saturday
GOING: Good to soft
Going Stick 6.6, Saturday 6.30am
Saturday morning course update: 4.5mm of rain on Friday. Forecast: Dry and cloudy with sunny spells, max daytime temp of 20c.
Stalls:5f, 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre. 1m 2f and 1m4f – Inside.
Weather: Dry Saturday
1.55pm Goodwood: Youthful King, Dramatic Star, Good Show, Scottish Anthem, Beauld As Brass, Artisan Dancer, Cape Breton, Give It To Me Oj
3.05pm Goodwood: Bergerac, King’s Lynn, Emperor’s Spirit, Kodi Lion, Fast Track Harry, Strong Warrior, Sondad, Purest Time, Alaskan Gold, Arabian Sun, Westmorian, Kendall Roy, Arctic Thunder, Fivethousandtoone, Wodao, Vantheman, Pals Battalion, Mesaafi, Canon’s House, Eye Of Dubai, Probe, Rhythm N Hooves, Loom, Photosynthesis, Red Sand, Double Rush, Aberama Gold, Dark Cloud Rising, Tourist, Frankies Dream
3.45pm Goodwood: Huscal, Padua
1.20pm Goodwood: Ambiente Friendly? (drawn 3), Arabian Crown ? (2) Candleford? (1) – Mount Atlas NR as at 9.39am (lame)
1.55pm Goodwood: Barnso (11), Duraji (6), Dancing In Paris? (9)
2.10pm Newmarket: Ruby’s Angel (2), Azleet (5)
2.30pm Goodwood: Allonsy (4), Term Of Endearment (1)
3.05pm Goodwood: Apollo One (28), Get It (27), Jordan Electrics (2), Alzahir (12), Hammer The Hammer (4), Desert Cop (26), Circe (prom – 23)), Twilight Jet (13), Germanic (prom – 9), Run Boy Run (19), Jungle Drums (10)
3.20pm Newmarket: Karmology (8), Star Of Light (6)
3.45pm Goodwood: The Waco Kid (7), Hallasan (prom – 4), Consolidation (11), Aurora Majesty (prom – 2), Headmaster (6) – Wolf Of Badenoch NR 10.31am (going)
OTHER NRs – 4.20pm Goodwood: Captain Fox (girth gall)
Good: Hugo Palmer (absolutely flying – keeps churning out decent-priced winners, and two winners on Friday, including a 20-1 scorer), William Haggas (very good), John and Thady Gosden, Roger Varian, Charlie Appleby, Hughie Morrison (four winners from just 10 runners since July 19) , Ian Williams (four recent winners at big prices), George Baker, Julie Camacho, Karl Burke, Simon and Ed Crisford, Ralph Beckett, Tom Ward, Marco Botti, Eve Johnson Houghton, James Owen, Joseph O’Brien, Jim Goldie (very good), Richard Spencer, Jamie Osborne, Owen Burrows (very good, 5 from 9 of late)
Fair: Richard Hughes, Andrew Balding, Richard Hannon, Charlie Johnston, David O’Meara (big handicap winner on Friday), Mick Appleby, Robert Cowell (needs winners), Brian Meehan, James Ferguson, Charles Hills, Stuart Williams, Jane Chapple-Hyam (borderline good), David Simcock, Alan King, David Menuisier, Paddy Twomey, Jennie Candlish (winner on Friday), Michael Dods, Jim and Suzi Best, Charlie Fellowes (winner on Friday), Archie Watson, James Ferguson, Alan King, Dermot Weld (borderline moderate), Harry Charlton, Kevin Ryan, Richard Fahey (operating at 3 per cent before 40-1 and 10-1 Thursday winners)
Moderate: Michael Keady, Charalambous/Clutterbuck, Michael and David Easterby (recent winner though)
Not sure: Nicky Henderson (one recent winner)
1.15pm Cheltenham – 16/1 It’s Easy is perhaps too big but this is difficult This…
1.15pm Cheltenham – 33/1 Stoner’s could be an each-way choice My first instinct here was…
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