By Tony Calvin - 30 September 2026
I may be being harsh but these Longchamp races on Saturday don’t really set the pulse racing, do they?
Of course, there are some decent races and classy horses – not least the 2/5 poke Scandinavia in the Prix Du Cadran – but the Group 1 races look pretty underwhelming to me and they are not really betting heats.
However, when a big boat like Pierre Bonnard ranges between 4/5 and 11/10 for a race, then there is surely a bet against him.
Like most, I was a big fan of the horse at two and we are continually told he is one of the best lookers ever to grace the grass, but he has come up short in six starts this season and he was particularly tame in the St Leger last time.
Of course, he could still be up to winning this 1m7f Group 2 but there is an argument that even an official mark of 116 flatters him; he was getting 5lb from winner Maltese Cross and the third Christmas Day when second in the Voltigeur and he hasn’t come up to scratch as a 3yo.
I can’t have him.
The way I am going to play this race is to back Space Waltz at 4/1 – and splitting my stakes between win-only and each-way on him, given there are only eight runners and I am always wary of a NR.
The 4s is available in four places as this goes live at 10.38am on Friday, and that was generally available later in the day.
There is clearly very little between him and 9/2 chance Victoire Magique on their running last time, so there is a case for similarly backing Amy Murphy’s horse (she is two-handed here , with 10s chance Jabracadabra) too against an underpriced favourite, but I’ll stick with Andre Fabre (has won with six of his last 14 runners going into Friday) and Space Waltz myself.
Victoire Magique is 2lb worse off for the length he beat Space Waltz on officially soft ground over course and distance last time – though Timeform called it good – and the winner got a good ride from the front there, grabbing the rail and making all.
Of course, the Murphy horse could enjoy a similar pace set-up here – maybe Asakir could switch tactics and go forward again, as he has done once previously soon into a race , but there is no potential pace outside of him – but, on possibly a tad quicker ground than last time (see below), I fancy Space Waltz to get his revenge.
He had earlier shaped well when fifth to Maltese Cross from off the pace in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris – is it me or does Stephane Pasquier look like a 7lb claimer? – and he had previously beaten Victoire Magique by 3 1/2 lengths off levels over 1m4f on officially good to firm ground at Chantilly in June (Timeform agreed with that assessment).
It may be that he doesn’t stay 1m7f as well as others in here, but I am paying to find out, on the above win and each way terms.
There is 9/2 available as at 4.06pm on Friday.
Pierre Bonnard is surely making this market – and I can’t have him one iota.
No NRs please.
Oh, and just a reminder amongst all this talk of fast ground.
Sure, it will dry out but these aren’t high summer-drying conditions, and Turftrax are currently calling it good to soft, good in places, as of Friday morning (7.4).
However, Danny on X got in touch on Friday morning and said it is unseasonably hot for October, so let’s see how quick it goes today and tomorrow.
It is now good, good to firm in places, on Saturday according to Turftrax.
Only one came out at the overnight stage in this 200k 7f sales race, though A Bear Affair won at Salisbury on Thursday (made all), so there may be a chance he could be a NR.
Mind you, with prize money down to 10th (and they get over 3k for 10th), he’d definitely be running again if he were mine, providing he is fit and well.
The odds-on favourite is Night In Vegas, and the Richmond Stakes third is aiming to give Kennet Valley (and the trainer and jockey remember, as they get a fair slice of the pie) another massive pay-day after similar successes on the July course here and Doncaster last time.
The 167k first prize pot is only 6k shy of what the Group 1 Abbaye winner cops on Sunday.
A 6lb penalty looks unlikely to stop him on all known form, but we do have some dangerous floaters here – and let’s not forget Night In Vegas is “only” rated 102, so he is no world-beater. Indeed, the filly Zigazig Ah (a 1 1/2 length second to Night In Vegas on the July course in August) is not far off him at these weights.
Wily William Haggas adds some spice into the pot with his newcomer Carbine Country, too.
Eve Johnson Houghton’s colt is more likely than not to oblige here, and the small step up in trip to 7f may suit too, but he isn’t a betting proposition for me at odds-on, especially with the stable in underwhelming form going into Thursday.
Cue a 33/1 winner at Salisbury….
And being drawn 2 of 15 may not be ideal, either. The pace I have in the race is in 12, 13 and 15 (A Bear Affair is in four).
If pushed, I’d rather be against him at the price – but I take some shoving. No bet.
The first outfit up made him 8/11, and then 4/5 appeared.
As at 4.03pm on Friday, there is a spot of 5/6.
I had a quick look at this 7f Listed race at the five-day stage and thought So Regal was the one to beat, but I am not sure I’d be going anywhere near her at a general evens here.
In fact, I wouldn’t.
Sure, shaped well enough off a break at Sandown last time and the drop back to 7f may suit her. And I suspect this lightly-raced, beautifully-bred Cheveley Park filly is the classiest of a relatively mediocre bunch in black-type terms.
But, perhaps not for the first time, she didn’t look straightforward at Sandown and she doesn’t have that much in hand of this field, as it stands; indeed, only 1lb in the case of Midnight Tango and 2lb when it comes to Dash Of Azure (and plenty of others are rated in the high 90s).
I thought Midnight Tango at 10s was a fair each-way price, as she has good course form (she split Coppull and Division in the 6f Commonwealth Cup Trial here in May and they have both acquitted themselves well in Group 1 company with the winner following up in a Group 2) and I’d be willing to forgive her modest run at the July course last time when she was poorly positioned throughout from off the pace.
I am not sure what her ideal trip is – though she ran well over 7f in the Sweet Solera last season – and, more pertinently, I have not decided if I am going to have a bet.
But If I do get involved, she is odds-on to be it, each-way.
I quite like her draw in 11 here (especially after Friday’s racing), around most of the paper pace.
I quickly relented and had a very small each-way bet at 10s – £25 ew if you must know (this race analysis went live at 1.59pm, Thursday).
I bet there was a collective sigh when only seven rocked up for this 375k Group 1 Sun Chariot – though seven is job done for World Pool purposes – as I imagine quite a few people (myself included) were getting primed to back City Of Memphis each-way, three places.
So that has rather bolloxed that idea, though I may still be tempted to back her at 5s a quarter the odds 1,2.
You don’t need me to tell that Blue Bolt will take an awful lack of whacking here and she handed City Of Memphis her arse to the tune of 2 1/4 lengths in the Matron Stakes at the DRF.
But that was still a cracking effort by Paddy Twomey’s filly and, if any one of these can halt Blue Bolt’s winning run, it is her, for all the official ratings tell you all of these have a shot of doing so if the favourite underperforms (you can argue that Evolutionist at 20s is overpriced).
And she may – she made her seasonal reappearance on May 2, so she would have been in serious work weeks earlier – so the campaign may catch up with her at some stage.
And City Of Memphis was coming off a long summer break , after three quick early-season runs, when second at the DRF , with Group 1 winners Fallen Angel, True Love and Precise in behind.
There is more to come from her, and Twomey is a man to have on your side.
I’ve backed her each-way at 5s just now.
Any 5/4 or bigger would interest me in the “Without Favourite” betting too, though we will have to wait for a while for those lines to come out.
I’ve just clocked some 13/8 (as at 1/58pm) , so off to phone a friend.
I think I have one left…
Now, this is a good race for the Listed grade , as we have Group 1 and 2 winners in here, as well as high-class and improving sprint handicappers.
Do I have a punting opinion or a bet in the race?
No, not really.
Gun to my head, and Regional, winner of the the 2024 Betfair Sprint Cup, is maybe the most appealing of the current prices of 8s – for all he is pretty resistible at the same time.
He hasn’t won since that Haydock glory day over two years ago but he has run some crackers in defeat in the highest grade, finishing third in the King Charles III at Royal Ascot in 2025 , as well as third in a Group 2 at York in May, and he showed there was still life in the old dog yet when fourth over 6f last month, only crying enough close home.
Back to 5f on a track on which he clearly excels (he also finished second in the 2024 King Charles III, too) and on quick ground he loves, the 8yo could just show his younger rivals a clean of heels.
This is very competitive and deep for the grade, and trap 4 is not ideal, but I have had a bit of 15/2 win-only (couldn’t get the 8s).
A very modest investment, though.
A pretty so-so 1m4f handicap for 50 bags, and one of these owes me after a mystifying no-show in the Cambridgeshire last week.
Perhaps Tycoon had a setback before the race and couldn’t run as a result (that’d be a worry, if so – but presumably all is fine now, if that was the case) , but this is obviously a much easier assignment and the early 13/2 about him is not a bad price.
There is a ton of pace in this race and that will hopefully see Rossa Ryan bide his time on him (he made the running when third over this trip at Ascot in July but ownermate Evanesco, the early 11/4 favourite, is one of the many pace angles that can do his donkey work here).
Now, this is obviously a big change of heart trip-wise by connections going up to 1m4f from 1m1f, but he clearly gets it, and I thought he could have gone close to winning on another day when fourth over 1m1f at Yarmouth last time off a 1lb lower mark.
Toby Moore didn’t see racing daylight until far too late there; he wasn’t an unlucky loser but he clearly finished with plenty in the tank (do those Whatsapp videos still do the rounds, by the way?)
The 1m4f trip does concern me a touch, but if Ryan can sit chilly, not too far off the pace, he can hopefully nail this mob in the closing stages. He ran really well over 1m1f here in May off a 2lb higher mark, and I definitely think he is weighted to win (granted, he has only won once).
Only a few firms have priced up as this race preview goes live at 12.31pm on Thursday, so I’ll see if that 13/2 is beaten.
In fact, it literally just has been at 15/2 – so I have played win-only at those odds.
We are down to five as Plage De Havre is out as at 6.11pm (going).
I know I wouldn’t be saying it if I owned a suitable horse, but these middle-distance Group 3s, need sacking off, don’t they?
They usually attract small fields for an over-large pot (in this case 95 bags), and this contest only has six runners and three trainers involved.
Anyway, the thing that immediately strikes you about this race is the lack of a regular front-runner, though Royal Playwright has made it on three occasions in his career.
There is an opportunity for someone savvy to change tactics and press on, and we saw with Alobayyah at Newmarket last week that Wily William is alert to the benefits of the old tactical switcheroo.
I am not sure it will work with his Al Aasy but I won’t be in the least surprised if Harry Davies bangs the 2/1 favourite Tenability out in front and stays there.
He got outmuscled by Al Qareem when second in this race last year but, other than that, his course form figures read 111 and he posted a very good effort when beating Silawi and White Birch at Windsor last time (raced prominently).
He is by far the most likely winner, front-running or not and the general 2s is fair.
James’s Delight is a NR (bad scope).
I couldn’t see a lot of pace in this race. Maybe Fitzella or Into The Sky, but I see no reason why they wouldn’t go on again with Prince Of India.
The switch from blinkers to cheekpieces here is possibly a touch odd (and Botti’s record in this area is nothing flash – see below) as he clearly did little wrong when making all in Listed company at Newmarket last time, but presumably he has been worked in pieces at home and they have been happy with what they have seen.
He has a bit to find with the eminently opposable form horse Division (Elmonjed is rated 2lb higher than Prince Of India but carries a 5lb penalty) but his previous two runs, in the July Cup and in the Hungerford Stakes, can be upgraded – he met trouble in the former and had too much to do late on in the latter over 7f, though he ran very well on each occasions – and he looks a very solid citizen at the general 5s each way (one firm offer 5s and four places).
And he looks an improving model.
I managed to get a bit of the 5s with an extra place, so that’ll do for me.
I couldn’t get a lot on, though , and the extra place swayed it for me. You may not be as lucky to get that – in fact, very few probably can.
He is an each-way bet though, three or four places.
Another of these uber-value 2yo races – and 13-runners are set to line up for Redcar’s 150k 2yo Trophy.
I have no betting interest in the race – the form horses, Satellite Of Love and Revels, dominate the market at 2s and 9/4 respectively, as they should do.
One of that pair just win, don’t they?
The unbeaten Thomas Waterman (I couldn’t be arsed to attempt a Dennis joke), getting 7lb, is the obvious dark one at 17/2 – he was impressive on his debut at Wolverhampton in April, had a long time off afterwards (was gelded) and qualified for this when winning at 9s-on recently – but it’s a shrug-your shoulders punting contest and I am not minded to get involved.
The market has this sorted.
A full field for this valuable 7f handicap and plenty were balloted out.
So make sure you get your money on those if you backed them ante-post (full list below).
This is another race which I will come back to on Friday morning, as my initial sweep didn’t throw up too much.
To cut a long story short, I don’t think this will take too much winning for a 180k pot and I don’t have any issue with Thunder Call heading the market at 11/4.
In fact, the general 3 probably isn’t a bad bet (yes, really) – 7/2 in one place now on Friday evening, and 6.0 to small sums win-only – given the lack of scary depth here, though he is actually 1lb wrong (I assume the handicapper has re-assessed his win here last time and downgraded it by 1lb) and a red flag could be his draw in one.
That draw could be problematical all right, though River King is one of the few pace angles next to him in 2. I imagine that is why he is currently weak.
It only hit home how poor the draw could be when looking at Friday’s results from the track.
The 18-runner 6f handicap at Ascot on Friday saw the following traps hold sway: 18-17-12-15-9-16.
In the earlier 18-runner 7f handicap it was 17-16-12-9-10-15.
At much bigger prices than More Thunder, Hawksbill, drawn in 15, at a general 25s looks too big on first viewing.
And on second inspection.
Officially the best handicapped horse here on his recent second on heavy ground at Ayr over 1m (2lb well-in), this is obviously a far different test over 7f on quick ground.
But some of his better efforts have come on good to firm, 7f in a big field shouldn’t be an issue trip-wise, and the 25s (available in 15 places as this goes live at 16.11pm on Thursday) just looks a touch wrong.
And nine of those firms offer five places.
I may have a small each-way tickle now, and have a further sleep on this tonight.
I had a little press-up on Friday morning.
Having slept on it, I am happy with the Hawksbill play and the only other I considered was Mezcala in trap 16.
I think the step back down to 7f (the trip over which he won the Buckingham Palace at the Royal meeting) will suit; he traded odds-on in the run over at a mile at Doncaster last time before weakening late on.
He is only 3lb higher than when winning at Royal Ascot and I have talked myself into a saver on him at 10-1+ on Betfair (necessarily small as there is jack shit in the market).
He is 10s fixed-odds as at 7pm on Friday. That’s a very decent each-way bet if you can access it.
A couple of late additions got this 7f Listed race up to eight runners, and potential each-way punters will obviously hope those numbers hold up.
It is a close-knit race on official ratings outside of the improving, 92-rated Oolong Poobong, though Witness Stand is the clear top dog at his best.
He was rated 118 after beating Lake Forest the thick-end of 3 lengths in the Group 2 Lennox last season and he doesn’t carry a penalty here, down in grade.
He is 9/2 to tiny sums win-only (general 10/3 fixed odds) as 5.35pm on Friday and that is a price I certainly wouldn’t like to lay.
Maybe it is his draw in seven that is putting some off, and personally I wouldn’t be a fan of the jockey.
Mind you, he is a mad 8/1+ as of Saturday morning. I had to have a score win-only.
It is not a race that appeals greatly betting-wise though, but connections of the 101-rated Valvano have opted to take him on off levels instead of looking to take advantage of that mark in the big 7f Ascot handicap on Saturday.
I imagine that was a ground decision (it is watered good here, and it is likely to be good to firm and pretty rapido at Ascot unless they water again there) but he thrived when dropped back to this 7f trip for the first time at Southwell, after a summer break, last time (he also had a wind op in the interim).
There could be more to come from him now they think they have got his trip right, then; he was campaigned over 1m4f in 2024 and he has been steadily coming back in trip since.
The early 15/2 was taken and he is now a general 7s poke. That half-interests me actually and I may have a throwaway score on him.
Sur Le Nez.
I had to top and tail this column with a French angle…good luck today.
Space Waltz at 4/1 or 9/2 in the 12.23pm at Longchamp (I have split my stakes between win only and each-way, as there are only eight runners and I am wary of a NR)
Midnight Tango small at 10/1 each-way in 1.15pm Ascot
City Of Memphis each-way at 5/1, 1/4 the odds 1,2, in 1.35pm Newmarket (you’ll get bigger this morning – I’ve pressed up win-only on Betfair at 12.5)
Regional small win-only at 15/2 in 1.50pm Ascot (you’ll get bigger this morning morning – I’ve pressed up win-only on Betfair at 9.0 but 13/2 is available)
Tycoon 15/2 win-only in 2.10pm at Newmarket
Prince Of India each-way at 5/1 in 3pm at Ascot (get the best place terms your accounts allow)
Hawksbill each-way at a generally available 25/1 (15 firms) in 3.35pm at Ascot (get the best place terms your accounts allow)
Mezcala at 10/1 win only in 3.35pm at Ascot
GOING : Good to firm
GOING STICK : 7.3, Sat 6am
SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry and cloudy with the odd sunny spell, daytime high of 20c.
Weather (7.42am Saturday): 20 degrees and overcast
Watering: 10mm applied on Tuesday; 3mm applied to the final 10f on Thursday.
GOING : Good to firm, good in places
GOING STICK : Straight: 8.1; Round: 7.0. Soil Moisture 35% (Sat 7.30am)
SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry overnight to 6.30am Saturday. 4.5mm rain recorded Wednesday night to Thursday. A generally dry day with sunny spells is forecast. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather (7.42am Saturday) : possibility of a light shower at 2pm
Watering: Last watering completed on Tuesday 5mm on whole track
GOING : Good
GOING STICK : 7.9, Friday 2pm
Rails: The inside 8m of the home straight is being verti-drained on Monday ahead of the race meeting.
The inside line of the straight mile chute (a 5m width where the vehicles drive) remains dolled off from the 1m start down to just before the 5f start. Additionally, we have reinstated the rail along the inside line in the home straight, which is dolled out from around the 4f pole down to the just after the 2f pole, after which it cuts away.
SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: 4.8mm rain overnight Dry & settled on Monday with sunny spells. Dry & overcast on Tuesday. Dry, warm and breezy on Wednesday (22C). Dry, warm and breezy on Thursday (20C). Dry & windy Friday Forecast: Chance of light rain overnight (circa 1mm) Dry and breezy Saturday 16C
Weather (7.42am Saturday): 16 degrees and sunny
Watering: 2mm irrigation applied overnight Wednesday & Thursday. A further 2mm of irrigation is to be applied overnight into Saturday, again, to replace moisture loss.
GOING: Good, good to firm in places (Turftrax)
Penetrometer reading : 3.4 (from 3.5) – suggests they think it is easier than what Turftrax are suggesting
Turftrax: 8.2 (from 7.4 on Friday)
Weather (7.42am Saturday): 22 degrees Saturday and 23 degrees Sunday; sunny spells
RAILS
Reminder of the rail position on Saturday and Sunday
After no racing for four weeks, the rail will be positioned at 15 metres on the final straight and 8 metres throughout the remainder of the track.
The rail will be moved back to zero (0 metres).
On this day, there will be a 6m Cut-away at 450m from the winning post.
3.35pm Newmarket: The Angel King, Exposure, Sword, Collecting Coin, Malachys Wish, Sterling Knight, First Legion, Humam, Ironwill, Dublin Bay, Dapper Guest
William Knight visor; Jumeirah Storm, 1pm Newmarket; 12-113 (2009)
Declan Carroll blinkers; Lifeplan, 1.50pm Ascot 7-89 (2009)
Marco Botti cheekpieces; Prince Of India, 3pm Ascot; 10-129 (2016)
Richard Hughes cheekpieces; Sayidah Dariyan; 3pm Ascot; 17-165 (2016)
David and Nicola Barron hood; Quillan, 3.20pm Redcar; 0-10 (2024)
Tony Coyle and Kaine Wood cheekpieces; Rlasthope, 3.20pm Redcar; 2-12 (2024)
Jamie Osborne cheekpieces; The Fingal Raven; 3.35pm Ascot 7-51 (2016)
1pm Newmarket (limited evidence): Artemis Star (drawn 13), Zizazig Ah (12), Pon Pon Dalia (15), A Bear Affair (4 – made all on Thursday)
1.15pm Ascot: Breckenbrough (10), Awaken (3), Josh’s Joy (9), Just A Girl (12)
1.35pm Newmarket: Evolutionist (1), Moon Target (7), Secret Of Life (6)
1.50pm Ascot: Air Force One (1), Baker Blue (6), Lifeplan (11), Regional (4)
2.10pm Newmarket: Evanesco (4), Ernst Blofeld (1), Sportingsilvermine (5), Topteam (6), Blue Hercules (3), Tycoon (8)
2.25pm Ascot (opportunity for a jockey to show some initiative): Royal Playwright? (2), Tenability (5) ? – Plage De Havre NR
3pm Ascot: Prince Of India (4), Into The Sky (7), Fitzella (9) – James’s Delight is a NR
3.20pm Redcar : Satellite Of Love (10), Stardom Glory (2), Quillan (7), Rlasthope (13), Thomas Waterman (8) Cheeky Chesca (6)
3.35pm Ascot : Poet Master (8), River King (2), The Fingal Raven (12)
3.55pm Redcar: Audience (4), Myal (3), Witness Stand (7)
Good: William Haggas (good/fair), Roger Teal, Paddy Twomey, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Sir Mark Prescott, Ralph Beckett, John and Thady Gosden, Tim Easterby (huge sample), Clive Cox, Dr Richard Newland (fair/good – 2 from 8), Charlie Appleby (very good), Ed Walker (good-fair), Dylan Cunha, Jim Boyle (very small sample but 20-1 winner on Thursday), Stuart Williams (winners this week at 20-1, 10-1 and 10-1), Jennie Candlish (5-1 winner on Friday)
Fair: Richard Hannon, Hugo Palmer (fair/moderate), Michael Bell, Charlie Fellowes, Muir and Grassick (fair/moderate), Richard and Peter Fahey (14-1 winner on Friday), Iain Jardine (16-1 winner on Friday), Richard Spencer, Tom Ward, Marco Botti, Andrew Balding, Karl Burke (fair/good), Charlie Johnston, Hamad Al Jehani, Kevin Philippart De Foy (8-1 winner on Thursday), James Owen (16-1 winner on Friday), David and Nicola Barron, Ed Bethell, Coyle and Wood, Richard Hughes (fair-good), Stan Moore, David O’Meara (fair-moderate – 12/1 winner on Friday evening), George Boughey, Mario Baratti, Adrian Keatley (winner on Friday), Donnacha O’Brien, Harry Charlton, George Margarson, Ian Williams, Eve Johnson Houghton (33/1 winner on Thursday)
Moderate: William Knight, Craig Lidster (8-1 winner on Thursday), Owen Burrows (moderate/fair – winless), Charlie Hills, Michael and David Easterby (big losing run), Declan Carroll, Ollie Sangster, Jamie Osborne, Daniel and Claire Kubler (small sample though), Jack Channon (a winner and short-head 25-1 runner-up in Cambridgeshire aside)
Don’t know: Lucy Wadham (no recent runners), Steph Hollinshead (o from 6 but one beaten a short-head at 9/2), Geoff Oldroyd, Tracy Waggott, Saeed bin Suroor
MONDAY MORNING As of early on Monday morning, there were 30 in the Dewhurst (Aidan…
As at 11.42am on Sunday morning, AKBets are top price about the first 12 in…
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