By Tony Calvin - 10 October 2025
I couldn’t see any confirmed pace in this, maybe Mister Rizz (made the running when third behind Damysus at Deauville, but he took a lead in a three-runner race last time) or Liberty Lane (can be ridden prominently), and it just looks a pretty forgettable Group 3, in truth.
It probably stands up to inspection from a ratings point of view, but not massively from a betting appeal perspective and I won’t be punting.
Gladius opened up at 4s in a place after the final field was known on Thursday and that looked okay, as he has a lightly-raced, progressive profile and stepped forward from his handicap successes to finish a good fourth in the Strensall Stakes at York time.
The winner didn’t shine in the Prix Dollar at Longchamp last weekend , but the runner-up Boiling Point obviously won the Cambridgeshire (off 109), the third Skukuza finished a good third in the Prix Wildenstein and the fifth ran creditably when second to Almeric at Ayr (a race in which Liberty Lane finished third under a Listed penalty).
Given his trajectory and profile, I’d definitely suggest Gladius if you wanted a Gene Hunt in this.
The [4/1] that remains in the marketplace is the play if you want to get involved.
Gladius is now into [5/2] tops on Saturday morning, and that is with AKBets.
He is now favourite with some books.
Little has changed since I had a look at this race on Tuesday.
Namely, it looks impossible, for all the 800k Kingman colt Division heads the betting by a fair distance at [11/4], though most firms go [9/4].
If I was going to have a bet maybe Lightning Polka at 18s in a place, and 16s, would tempt me in for a tenner, as the soft ground may have been against this well-bred filly at Ayr last time, though to her credit she stayed on well from the line after finding it tough going early doors.
She has plenty to find against horses rated as much as 12lb higher as her but 18s and 16s looks a touch too big in the risk to reward dilemma.
I literally have had £11 at [17-1].
Big-hitter, me. Better punting races await.
Dandy Style is a NR as at 7.27am (no Rule 4), followed by Anaisa at 10.23am.
Flying Comet and Lightning Polka are the main movers into [7/2] and [8/1] respectively on Saturday morning.
Flying Comet is actually favourite at 10.30am.
One bookmaking outfit were so eager to get out of the traps on Thursday morning that they didn’t wait for the Ballydoyle jockey bookings to appear on the BHA site, and went 10s about Pierre Bonnard and 2s the nominal (I imagine bookies hardly took a bean on the market) ante-post favourite Endorsement.
All change when Christophe Soumillon’s name appeared alongside the former, and he is now best at [7/2].
There appears little between Aidan O’Brien’s pair on the evidence of their maiden wins (Endorsement has held on to favouritism), while at the same time neither set a high bar for the opposition to aim at in this 1m2f staying test for juveniles.
Going into the Group 3 it looks a modest enough renewal , and those to have been given an official mark (four haven’t) are headed by the 97-rated Look To The Stars, a [7/2] chance at the moment.
A win for any of the eight would not surprise as they all head up to 1m2f for the first time but it’d be good to see Peter Chapple-Hyam back in the ITV limelight with Loz Vegas.
He was The Man 30 or so years ago, and a day in the Newmarket sun for him would be good to see, and Loz Vegas is not a win and place no-hoper at 25s after not getting the best of runs behind Look To The Stars at Newbury last time.
He was only beaten 2 ½ lengths there and he could hit the board.
IF all eight go, he’d be a decent each-way poke at 25s+ but, as ever, I will waiting for NR news until closer to the off.
With the ground riding very quick at Newmarket on Friday, and the course not watering after racing (a good call), some connections may not fancy it for their youngsters.
Pierre Bonnard is into [5/2] on Saturday morning, with Spyce (now 5s) the other mover since yesterday.
If all eight go, I will be backing the now [50/1] chance Loz Vegas, including with AKBets.
In fact, I will have half my stake on him now, with a view to pressing up later if we get a full field.
Erzindjan was an obvious choice at 5s earlier in the week as he won his side on the Cambridgeshire by 4 ½ lengths last time, and only got put up 1lb for it.
And he also shaped very well over course and distance in the John Smith’s here at [80/1] in July, for all he ran little bit flat on his return to the Knavesmire the following month.
He is into [3/1] now, which some may think is fair enough now he is here and willing, but I can easily let him go unbacked.
Credible alternatives include Tony Montana, a good second to a fair tool in Ireland last time but now a 5lb higher, and he isn’t a bad price at 8s.
I’ll come back to this tomorrow morning when I do my AKBets’ morning update – but nothing doing for me, with the favourite so short.
Erzindjan is into [5/2] on Saturday morning.
Albany is a NR as at 9.46am (10p Rule 4 here, probably).
Another 2yo contest in which a win for any of the seven would not surprise, as they are all unexposed winners.
If I have a bet – and that is unlikely – there is probably some snob value in Ed Dunlop’s Pathein being stuck in at 10s in a few places.
Rab Havlin said the horse got away with the soft ground when he won over this trip at Doncaster first time up and there was a lot to like about the way the horse travelled into that race and pulled out more when required closed home.
The form looks okay, too.
The runner-up won at odds-on here next time; the third, beaten nearly 5 lengths (Del Maro, who runs in the Zetland) was only just touched off in a maiden at this course afterwards, and a few further down the field have run well in defeat, too.
I get the borderline dismissive Dunlop angle from the bookmakers, as he wouldn’t be the greatest handler in the game (I appreciate the level of horses he gets and that may sound harsh, but the strike-rate tells the tale), but this 150,000 guineas St Marks Basilica colt could be a good ‘un for the yard.
I may actually have a few quid on him win-only at double-figure odds.
Not a great deal happening in this market but Al Zanati is currently the strongest at [5/2].
Another case of betting snobbery at play here with the unbeaten Zavateri available at [4/1] after preserving his unbeaten run when seeing off Gstaad by a head in the National Stakes, with Italy 2 ½ lengths away in third (the Goffs Million winner Dorset in fourth) and Saba Desert a well-beaten last of six.
Cut to the chase, the market is pretty well tied-up with Distant Storm heading up the betting, with Gstaad and Zavateri in behind, but I always give maximum respect to the Godolphin operation when they stick first-time headgear on their horses.
Saba Desert was a 6s chance when running a lifeless race in the National Stakes but the pieces are on here (at 45 from 183 with this option, this is pretty much on a par with Charlie Appleby’s overall strike rate, which is always a good sign) and he is available at 25s in a nine-runner race (so we at least have a NR to play with for each-way purposes).
Considering he was impressive in beating the aforementioned Italy in the Superlative Stakes, with stablemate and subsequent unlucky Grade 1 Woodbine head runner-up Wild Desert in third, I am going to take my each-way chance to small stakes at the generally available 25s (28s in two places).
Maybe it was trainer-error after a two-month break at the Curragh last time or maybe he has a problem (or maybe it was the easy ground), but I’ll pay to find out here.
Gstaad is the big early mover here from 4s in a place to [9/4] favouritism. AKBets are top price there.
Distant Storm is best at [13/5] with AKBets now, and they are also tops at 30s about my small each-way lean Saba Desert at 30s.
A full field of 22 for the Coral Sprint Trophy (11 were balloted out – see below for your money back if you punted any of those ante-post) and a typical sprinting minefield, with the pesky draw to contend with as well.
A couple stood out to me, not that I will be punting this to any significant degree.
But I’ll play one each way, which I am getting keener on in fairness – he’s a grower – and another win-only.
The first was Gleneagle Bay for Irish trainer Stephen Thorne, who has had 20 winners at home at a strike rate of 17 per cent, so he knows what he is doing.
He trains this one for Amo Racing and the horse has been knocking on the door a few times this season, most narrowly when third to Hickory and Qirat (both winners since, one famously so) in the Victoria Cup in May off a 5lb lower mark than this. Amo look to have bought him privately after that run.
This is his first start over 6f but I think it could suit – he hasn’t been finishing his off races strongly in the main, that Ascot run apart – and the trainer’s record with first-time blinkers (2 from 8) is encouraging enough.
In fact, the new 6f/blinkers angle could be a winning one.
The 10s each way is fair, as he brings something fresh to the staid sprinting party. I quite like him now.
Jordan Electrics is the other one at more than twice Gleneagle Bay’s price, having dropped to a mark of 95, his lowest for well over a year. He won off 96 at Hamilton last August and went up to 102, but he has been running well enough to suggest one of his pots could come his way.
Mind you, they could all say that in here.
He has some excellent form here off higher marks, so the 22s is fair enough. I’ll play win-only here.
That pair are berthed in stalls 13 and 15, so I hope there isn’t a low draw bias. I have most of the pace middle to high though, and the going stick readings on Friday morning suggest the centre was much the quickest.
As at 7am on Saturday, the bookmakers look to be shortening up everything in here.
Punters are paying for these extra place races.
Toyotomi is a NR as at 7.17am (other), followed by Eye Of Dubai and Sergeant Wilko in the last 10 minutes (as at 9.37am).
Gleneagle Bay is now 12s (unfortunately no access here or else I’d press up each way) and Jordan Electrics is 25s.
We gained one on Wednesday when The Shunter was re-instated into this race after a technical error (I am betting a shade of odds-on there is a juicier story in there somewhere …) and lost four on Thursday, notably East India Dock, who was a 9s poke in the ante-post book.
So, in truth, very little has changed since I did my ante-post piece on Tuesday, though there has been the usual price-trimming on a fair few, most notably Dawn Rising, who has crashed in price to just 8s, having been over three times that price this week. That ship has sailed.
And my strongest fancy from earlier in the week, Beylerbeyi, 10s then, is into 8s best.
This is what I wrote about him:
“From a handicapping point of view, he is right up there (5lb well-in) after two cracking efforts of late.
“He came home very strongly over that extended 1m6f in the Mallard at Doncaster, only being denied by 1/2-length after coming from a mile off the pace, and then he should have won over an extended 1m5f at Newbury, beaten a length after being stopped in his run at a crucial stage.
“That Newbury run came off a mark of 94 and he can race off 91 here.
“He is handicapped to win and his strong-finishing run-style suggests he is well worth trying at this extreme trip, and the ground should be okay whatever happens (Timeform called it soft at Newbury and have him winning on good to firm three times).
“However, you can’t be blase by stating an extra 3 1/2f will suit – and he has already outstayed his pedigree – so you have to factor that in to his price.
“I will have to have him onside come Saturday afternoon – though you’d like to see the stable in a bit better form – but not just at the moment (I may regret not taking a nibble of the 10s, it has to be said, as I may be being too greedy – probably am).”
I don’t mind his draw in five but I wasn’t expecting the first-time hood, basically because it is another unknown to add to the stamina question mark, but I am going to back him win-only at 8s or bigger despite him being a shorter price than earlier in the week and the above doubts, as he has huge upside.
But to a lesser stake than I was planning.
I went looking for a main alternative but I originally thought it was a simply case of too many coming out at me to have a serious bet, with perhaps Belgravian the most tempting, each way;
In fact, he is.
The more I looked, the more I liked him, and he has ended up being by biggest bet on Saturday.
Earlier in the week, when I studied (though not hard enough obviously) the trial Reverend Hubert won here, I totally missed the promise of Belgravian’s run in third (albeit he was over 8 lengths behind the runaway winner), as he stayed on very nicely indeed to take third, going on strongly close home.
Even though he was very well backed there (went off 11/8), it looked to my eye as a pretty quiet prep which didn’t risk a penalty for this.
He can race off a 5lb lower mark here (he is 5lb well-in, despite being 1lb out of the handicap) and I am going to chuck a fair few quid his way at 10s or bigger, each way.
The horse has thrived since going up in trip, with cheekpieces applied, on fast ground and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was vying for favouritism come race-time. But who knows in these wild-west days?
Nicola Currie could do with a big win, and this is a big opportunity for her.
Surrey Belle is a NR as at 6.34pm (going), and followed by Manxman at 8.25am (going).
Pole Star is the biggest Saturday shortener so far.
Gleneagle Bay at 10/1 each way in 3.15pm at York
Belgravian at 10/1 each way in 3.40pm at Newmarket (my idea of best bet of the day)
(Access the best price-place combos your live accounts allow)
NB – OTHER BETS: I have also backed Saba Desert each way, and had exchange win-only bets Beylerbeyi, Jordan Electrics and Pathein – with an each-way bet on Loz Vegas to come if still 25s+ and all eight go near the off – had half my intended stake on Loz Vegas at 50s just now (9.24am).
GOING – Good to firm, good in places
Going stick: 7.2, Saturday 6am
Rails: Stands Side Course in Use
Stalls: Centre
Saturday morning course update: Dry past 24 hours. Forecast: Dry and cloudy with the odd sunny spell, max daytime temp of 16c.
Watering: None since 3mm put on, on Wednesday.
GOING – Good
Going stick: 5.3, Saturday 8.15am (was 5.5 Friday 8.15am)
In Home Straight: Far Side – 4.8; Centre – 5.9; Stands Side – 5.2
Moisture meter reading: 36%
Wind speed and direction at 1.30pm Saturday: SE 3mph gusting to 5mph.
Saturday morning course update: A cool, fresh and clear Saturday morning. Recent rainfall of 0.8mm rain Wednesday, 13.8mm in October. Met Office forecast: Saturday – any early low lying mist to clear early, then sunny with very light wind, 16 degrees.
Weather: Dry
A good starting point for these big handicaps is horses that come into a race ahead of the handicapper.
Well-in horses are: Belgravian (6lb), Reverend Hubert (6lb), Beylerbeyi (5lb), Caprelo (3lb), Dawn Rising (2lb) and Fireblade (1lb) (Surrey Belle is a NR)
Of the other Irish horses, this is the amount that are higher/same than their marks at home (so + is bad): Hipop De Loire (+1lb higher here), Bunting (same), Alphonse Le Grande (couldn’t find an Irish mark), Small Fry (same), Ndaawi (+1lb), Mordor (same), Seddon (same)., The Shunter (+1lb) and Winter Fog (+1lb).
3.15pm York: Secret Guest, Glenfinnan, Aberama Gold, Duran, Righthere Rightnow, It Just Takes Time, Zoulu Chief, Northern Spirit, Kodiac Thriller, Mister Sox, Manila Scouse
3.20pm Chepstow (not on ITV but there may have been someone betting on it): American Sniper, Tom Doniphon, Last Rodeo, Busy Being Busy, Lavender Hill Mob, The Nagger Reidy
Richard Fahey cheekpieces; Mr Colonel, 1.50pm Newmarket; 47-381
Charlie Appleby cheekpieces; Saba Desert, 3pm Newmarket; 45-183
Ian Williams hood; Beylerbeyi, 3.40pm Newmarket; 3-41 (Flat)
Gordon Elliott cheekpieces; Ndaawi, 3.40pm Newmarket; 3-35 (Flat) & 54-401 (NH)
John McConnell hood; Seddon, 3.40pm Newmarket; 2-81 (Flat) and 3-28 (NH)
Stephen Thorne blinkers; Gleneagle Bay, 3.15pm York; 2-8
1.15pm Newmarket: Mister Rizz? (drawn 1), Liberty Lane? (2)
1.30pm York: Boston Dan (15), Comical Point (11), – Division (8), Flying Comet (7), Ali Shuffle (4), Azleet (5), Killavia (10) – Dandy Style is a NR
1.50pm Newmarket: Allegresse (1), Look To The Stars (6)
2.05pm York: Grey Cuban (9), Champagne Prince (4), Two Brothers? (8), Ey Up It’s The Boss (12)
2.25pm Newmarket: New Zealand (4)
3pm Newmarket: Oxagon? (2), Italy? (4), Pacific Avenue, said to be a pacemaker (1)
3.15pm York: Hammer The Hammer (8), Jordan Electrics (15), Gweedore (1), Bergerac (21), King’s Lynn (11), Eternal Sunshine (18) – Toyotomi is a NR as 7.17am (other), followed by Sergeant Wilko and Eye Of Dubai.
3.40pm: Newmarket: Barnso (14), Dawn Rising (12), Seddon (17) – Surrey Belle is a NR (going) as 6.34pm Friday, followed by Manxman (going) at 8.25am
Good: John and Thady Gosden (very good), Aidan O’Brien (only fair in strike rate terms), Karl Burke, Charlie Appleby, Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins (treble at Tramore), David Simcock, Stuart Williams, Geoffrey Harker (very small sample), John and Sean Quinn, Ralph Beckett
Fair: Tim Easterby, Eve Johnson Houghton, Michael Bell, Ed Walker, Andrew Balding, Joseph O’Brien (treble on Friday), William Haggas (treble on Friday), Charlie Johnston (double on Friday), Peter Chapple-Hyam (small sample; one winner from four runners). Hugo Palmer, David O’Meara, Coyle and Wood, Michael Dods (double on Thursday), Jim Goldie (double on Thursday), David Menuisier, Dylan Cunha, Alan King, Harry Eustace, Emmet Mullins (winner at Tramore on Thursday), Simon and Ed Crisford, John McConnell (fair for him, borderline moderate), Hughie Morrison, Bryan Smart, Charlie Clover, Archie Watson, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Michael and David Easterby, Gemma Tutty, Ruth Carr, Ed Dunlop
Moderate: Adrian Keatley (though not many runners), Richard Fahey, Ian Williams, Tony Martin, Charles Byrnes, Rod Millman (even though last runner was a 9-2 winner), Daniel and Claire Kubler, Kevin Ryan, Katie Scott
Don’t know (small samples): Syd Hosie, David Pipe, T J Kent, Stephen Thorne
1.10pm Ayr – Cromwell adds a big question mark to the Ayr opener Classic Maestro…
1.50pm Newmarket – 14-runner 3yo 6f handicap sets the ITV ball rolling Reciprocated, Enricher and…
Horse Racing
Greyhounds
Darts
Football
Home