TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s copy and stats and info

2.30pm – Royal Ascot 2yo races – The Bonfire Of The Vanities?

Your Song is a NR as at 11.42am (other).

These Royal Ascot 2yo races are so daunting I really struggle to see how anyone can have a strong betting opinion on them myself.

We have the small matter of 28 fillies going at it over 5f in the Queen Mary here, and it just looks a minefield.

Of course, Tuesday’s racing may help punters tip-toe through it a touch more safely with early clues about the draw, but they will be far from definitive.

To further muddy the waters, the Wesley Ward Royal Ascot sideshow starts here – let’s gloss over his medication record again, shall we? – with a couple of runners , while his American colleague Thomas Morley (an Englishman though) also sends over a once-raced winner.

For what it is worth, I vaguely agree with Senorita Bonita heading the betting at [9/2] as far better judges than me were really impressed by her narrow Nottingham success – the 900,000 guineas Breeze-Up purchase (horse racing at the top end is detached from financial prudency but this meeting can be the bonfire of the vanities) overcame a lot to get up close home to beat a runner-up with the benefit of experience.

But this race is full of unknowns, so it certainly isn’t for me.

Good luck if you are spinning the wheel, though; I hope the ball drops in your slot.

Senorita Bonita is out to 11-1+ on Betfair, with Alta Regina now vying for favouritism with Victorious.

3.05pm – Galiyan has plenty going for him bar the shortening price

There are plenty of unknowns in here too, as we are dealing with largely unexposed 3yos stepping up in trip.

However it has to be said that Galiyan really does stand out here as the most likely winner, but the market is telling you that at [5/2] – which may not last Tuesday morning – and that looks short enough to me.

AKBets are [13/5] as at 9.25am,

He clocked a really good time when winning a maiden at Chester last month, and the visual impression was that he will relish this 1m6f test.

That maiden looked strong form-wise too, with the runner-up going into the race on a mark of 91 (and the third has won easily since at 5s-on if that means anything).

But, as I said, looking at the opposition, even a best price of [5/2]  – he is as short as 2s in places – doesn’t look particularly flash to me, though he will probably be [9/4] tops before long.

The betting is quite skewed as it is [100/30] Limestone and 8s bar.

This race was immediately namechecked for him after he beat Asakir (also in here) over 1m5f at Navan last month and he obviously looks a big player, too.

I’ll come back to this race, as I am sure there must be an each-way option in here – but I am blowed if I can spot it at the moment.

Maybe Del Maro at 14s, but I’ll see.

I’ve decided to sit this one out.

3.40pm – 18/1 Falakayeh to finally fulfil that early promise

I imagine Blue Bolt at [11/4] will be another likely lass for the favourite backers and of course you can see it after a winning return to action at Goodwood last month.

Once again, by far the most likely winner (and I wouldn’t like to be laying her at 10/3, her current exchange price), but this is perhaps a far tighter race on ratings than the betting would have you believe.

She is certainly the one to beat, though.

I won’t go through the field here – it’s a long week and you have to pace yourself (I am writing this at 9.42am on Tuesday and I am already sniffing the barmaid’s apron…) but I have just backed Falakayeh to very small stakes at 18s each way, four places.

Now, it is fair to say the filly has not kicked on from a hugely impressive Pretty Polly win last season – she spanked a lot of 100+-rated fillies there – and she ran away with Saffie Osborne on her return, but I have a lot of time for Owen Burrows and I am relying on him to have ironed out the over-racing issues at home.

Burrows has a tremendous record with his small-string and he comes here in great nick, and he certainly has the raw talent to work with here.

Granted, she also blew out big time when a [5/2] chance in the Coronation Stakes here last year – those odds tell you how good she was in that Newmarket win – and there are obvious doubts here, but 18s is a fair risk-to-reward bet to me.

Tom Marquand is the best jockey to have ridden her, and hopefully he can find her more tractable here and get her into a decent position from her midfield draw.

I quite like Godspeed at 11s too, but Falakeyah is my only bet as I publish this preview at 9.52am on Tuesday.

And a small one at that, given the blow-out potential.

4.20pm – The current market has got this right, I think – Ombudsman to win

One of the match-ups of the week as Ombudsman takes on Daryz in this Prince Of Wales’s Stakes , though this is no two-way-go with Almaqam and Minnie Hauk lurking in the punting shadows, and is See The Fire too big at 25s+ on Betfair?

Eight runners can be heaven or hell for each-way punters so, with quickening ground (will they water after racing on Tuesday? – probably), that wouldn’t be an approach I would adopt over 24 hours out.

If you want an each-way bet, wait.

The win market has veered firmly towards Ombudsman in the past week, and he has taken over favouritism from Daryz to a significant degree with [6/4] now the best – available with AKBets – on offer with the Frenchie drifting to [12/5] with AKBets.

That is probably due to the good to firm going and the fact that Daryz blew out in the Juddmonte last season (on quick ground), his only previous venture outside of France.

Rather boringly, I think the current market has got this right, as Ombudsman looked a proper unit when winning this race last season and I think time will tell he did very well to give the up-and-comer Gethin weight and a beating in his Sandown prep.

I think he will win.

I haven’t had a bet though, and probably won’t.

5pm – Hopefully this 14/1 Shout bet is no Lulu (one for the older bingo players there)

Chibitty and Linwood are NRs.

I’m a gnarly piece of work in the main , so my first thought when looking at this race is how Jamie Osborne, trainer of One Smack Mac, will be received by the horse women and the media at the track.

Go and have a listen to Monday’s AKBets podcast to get my thoughts on him and his behaviour.

Anyway, back to the all-important betting, which looks increasingly impossible at this meeting, the more another day goes by.

The amount of texts I got after Ten Bob Tony won the Queen Anne at 50s….

This looks another impenetrable handicap but Shout looks a very solid each-way shot at the general 14s (16s is available if you go off the Oddschecker grid), and that is the way I have played it.

He may have blown out in the Britannia here last season but perhaps he resented the first-time visor that day and his course record other than that is very positive, with a win and a Balmoral fourth off a 1lb higher mark than this.

His third at York last time, when he did best of the prominently-ridden horses, suggests he is coming to the boil nicely.

I am not being silly and suggest you back him each way at seven and eight places (let’s be realistic, tipsters…) but an extra position or two for each-way punters at 14s makes him a more than acceptable play.

I like his draw in 26, though I have no opinion on the merit of 3lb claimer Jack Callan.

5.35pm Here is hoping that Zgharta gets third time lucky with the Ascot draw – and drifts

Song N Dance is a NR (infection)

Zgharta’s draw was as useful as a nun in a knocking shop when she favourite here on her return, and she was also not ideally positioned on the track when beaten under 4 lengths in the Sandringham at this meeting last year.

But, if her draw in six here doesn’t make her third time unlucky (and that is a considerable doubt in my mind – see going stick readings), I think she could have winnings legs.

It is actually her fourth over an extended 1m2f at York last season that actually leads me her to her winning chance in this race, as I think a blitz-up from start to finish will really suit here over a mile.

It is interesting that they have ditched her usual hood, so maybe they will let her rock and roll under a more prominent ride.

I hope they do.

The problem is her general price of 11s is at least three points too low for me, given my doubts about trap six, so I am going to wait for any drift to 14s+.

No way could I say back her at 11s when I think it is a decidedly lowball price and am not backing her myself.

But I want to get her onside at some point.

Drift please.

She has hit 12s but I am holding out for that 14s…

She is only 12s fixed odds,  but she has hit [16.5] on Betfair, so I have taken my chances win-only at that price, small-stakes because of that draw.

6.10pm – Controlla looks the choice of The Time Bandits

If you are behind going into the 25-runner 6f Windsor Castle Stakes, then I have a big tip for you.

Keep the wallet closed and leave the betting bank untouched.

The great thing about betting is there is always a tomorrow (even if it involves playing online casino on Christmas Day…)

Seriously, the 2yo races this week really are akin to playing darts blind. You kind of know where the numbers are situated but the board is always moving.

A lot of people clearly think Aidan O’Brien will hit the bullseye here – see what I did there?- with his Sergei Diaghilev who heads the betting at [5/2].

Ryan Moore seemed pretty sweet on him when I saw him interviewed last week and he rode the horse to a pleasing narrow success on his debut, form that has seen the second and third win next time.

But it looked an average time figure, the unexposed nature of the field invites caution, as does possibly in draw 2 of 25.

I actually admire people who have a decent bet in these juvenile races, but I strongly suspect that they know a lot about one horse and very little about the other 24.

Proceed with caution, especially if you started drinking on Wednesday morning….

It looks like Controlla will be the pick of The Time Bandits following her debut second to Victorious at Naas – the winner runs in the Queen Mary, so I imagine her price will shift after that, one way or the other – which is why she is the [4/1] second favourite.

The 33s chance Victory Gold is worth an each-way look on the trainer’s headgear stats alone (see below).

This is probably the quietest betting day I have ever had at Royal Ascot.

Some blaze away with 10+ selections on the day, and good luck to them, but if it ain’t there, it ain’t there .

Only put up what you are backing yourself has to be the number one rule.

BEST BET

Shout each-way at the widely available 14/1 in 5pm (get the best place terms you can – see copy) – 16s in a place

ROYAL ASCOT STATS/INFO

1.COURSE DETAILS

Going: Good to firm

Going Stick – Stands side: 8.9, Centre: 8.7, Farside: 8.5. Round: 7.6 (Wednesday 8.30am)

Soil Moisture: 40%

Going stick and soil moisture readings will be taken daily by 8.30am

Rails: The rail on the round course will be positioned approx 4yds out from approx 9f out to the Home Straight this will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside

yr.no weather (9.09am Wednesday): ; dry and overcast 22 degrees Wednesday; dry 26 degrees Thursday; dry 28 degrees and sunny Friday

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back on these – do not take no for an answer)

2.30pm: Big Hitter, Celestial Fire, Cosmic Mystery. Dee’s Funny Girl, Donegal Rose, Glamorize, Minkaas, Pretty Little Baby. Ron’s Angel, Roxa Love, Roxelina, Sydney Grace

5pm: Blue Brother, Diego El Queso, The Lost King, Marhaba Ghaiyyath, Popmaster , Eternal Force, Storm Star, Hickory, Whip Cracker, Nizam, The Fingal Raven, Ancient Rome, Brasil Power, Mezcala, Hawksbill, Back In Black, Tribal Chief, Mr Swivell, Greek Order, Alpha Crucis, High Degree, Sterling Knight, Theoryofeverything, Parole d’Oro, Croupier, Star Anthem, Release The Storm, Orandi, Rock of Cashel, El Matador. Stem,  Nostrum, Beagle Bay, Asmen Warrior, Salam Dubawi, Green Triangle, Clouds Hill, Rainbow Nebula, Cogitate, Lir Speciale,  Twisting Physics, Mythical Guest, Altareq, Padua

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

2.30pm (limited evidence clearly): Armor Supreme (drawn 19), Big Negotiator (15), Celtic Dispute (11) , Envision (12), Fast Track (26), Havana Lightning (6), Lover Girl (4) Magic Effort (17), Princess d’Orange (20), Ruiva (16) Shining Moment (21) – Your Song NR

3.05pm: Limestone (8), Magnetude (4) Mr Colonel (10), Ranga Tan (11), Wareeth  (1)

3.40pm: Blue Bolt (11), Carolina Jetstream (2), Falakeyah (8), Friendly Soul (5), Shes Perfect (6)

4.20pm: Devil’s Advocate (4), Mississippi River (7)

5pm: Archivist (18), Cerulean Bay (22), Mister Winston (10), One Smack Mac (13), Classic (19), Scoville (9) – Linwood and Chibitty are NRs

5.35pm: Stateira (13), Sand Gazelle (8), Radiant Beauty (14), All Moonshine (12), Goldilocks Cen (22), Renesmee (1) – Song N Dance is a NR

6.10pm (limited evidence clearly): Alpe D’Huez (9), Dorigo (6), Ischgl (4), Our Boy Bailey (21), Victory Gold (13), Moonrise (14), On The Queue Tee (5)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: John And Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby*(could do with an Ascot winner), William Haggas, Ed Walker, Richard Hannon, Hamad El Jehani,  Michael O’Callaghan, William Knight,  James Owen, Andrew Balding, Owen Burrows (very good), Roger Varian, James Tate (also among the winners on Monday with a double), Ger Lyons (going great guns), Jack Channon, James Fanshawe, Eve Johnson Houghton, Joseph O’Brien

Fair: Harry Eustace, Karl Burke (fair/good), Hugo Palmer, George Scott, Simon and Ed Crisford, Clive Cox, F-H Graffard (Tuesday winner),  Charlie Johnston,  David Simcock,  David O’Meara, Iain Jardine, Richard Hughes (10-1 winner on Wednesday), Ralph Beckett (fair/good),  Paddy Twomey, Richard and Peter Fahey, Jane Chapple-Hyam, C and Y Lerner, Ed Dunlop, Stephen Thorne, Charlie Pike, Brian Ellison, S Woods, G Mosse, Michael Keady, Jessie Harrington, Oliver Cole, George Boughey (better upgrade him now after Bow Echo)

Moderate: Archie Watson, Charlie Fellowes , Kevin Ryan, Ed Bethell (evens winner on Monday),  Ian Williams, Kevin Philippart De Foy (14-1 winner on Tuesday night), Dylan Cunha (11-2 winner on Tuesday night), Lemos De Souza, Johnny Murtagh (very moderate as a pundit..), W McCreery, Gavin Cromwell (though a recent jumps winner), Roger Teal (fair/moderate), Jamie Osborne, T J Kent, Muir and Grassick, Ben Haslam, Stan Moore, Ciaran Murphy, George Margarson (small sample)

Don’t know: Robson Du Aguiar (recent winner), Mohammed and Santos,  Diego Dias, Patrick Biancone (2 from 4 recently, it seems), Wesley Ward, Thomas Morley, Nels Petersen (had a winner), Saeed bin Suroor