TONY CALVIN: TWO each-way plays to consider at Musselburgh

BETTING/GOING UPDATE as at 9.06am Saturday

Fairyhouse (who were watering earlier in the week…) has just been abandoned after another 21mm overnight. 

A lot of the prices mentioned in here have been slashed in the last 24 hours, unfortunately.

As we regular see though – Masaccio, mentioned in copy, being a prime example last week (and Destinado was a 5s to 40s drifter who only got chinned in a photo in the opener at Lingfield on Friday) – these early moves, to tiny money, are often worthless.

Anyway, here goes.

At Haydock, Got Grey is [9/2] from an early 10s on Thursday in the 2.05pm.

An Tailliur is a general 5s from 9s (11/2 in one place) in the 2.40pm – Tiny Tetley is also very popular early doors here – and Le Milos is a general [11/2] from 12s, with [13/2] and 6s available in places (Glynn is a positive mover here, too)

At Musselburgh, Wiltshire Lad is [3/1] from 5s in the 1.50pm – the morning [10/3] has just been taken – and Align The Stars is 4s from 8s in the 3.35pm. He has since drifted to 5s.

Nothing much doing in the 2.25pm and 3pm with the NRs, which are significant in one race.

With two NRs, the 3pm is down to just seven runners.

Lieber Power probably the biggest mover in last 24 hours

He was 33s, 28s and 25s on Thursday, but he is now top at 9s, and as low as 7s, in the 3.35pm.

The 11s about him was taken just after 9am.

Courses have updated going and stick readings

The courses have now updated their going and stick readings. See below.

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1.50pm Musselburgh – 5/1 Wiltshire Lad another for the ex-Stoute angle?

Three-year-old handicaps at this time of the year are hard enough without factoring in the fitness unknowns – obviously these young horses would have been expected to progress with natural strengthening and conditioning in the close turf season – and then you have also to contend with the usual Thursday price shortening.

Step forward Wiltshire Lad, who was always going to be a popular early angle, hailing from the in-form Andrew Balding yard and being one of these Sir Michael Stoute retirement switchers.

It’s a bit disrespectful of these trainers to be improving former Stoute horses, though we are dealing with unexposed animals – such as Balding’s Greenham winner Jonquil – who probably would have kicked on with the maestro, too.

So, I wouldn’t want to overplay that.

The ex-Stoute Wiltshire Lad has been trimmed into 5s from [13/2] and [6/1] now and this son of Wootton Bassett ended last season with a win in a first-time visor at Southwell (retained here) and he still looks fairly treated off a 5lb higher mark. He may well shorten further.

However, he is drawn widest in eight, and he also faces seven similarly likely improvers, three of whom are race-fit.

It’s an easy race to pass on, especially as the pace angle could be crucial here.

I have all eight as racing prominently, so jockeys have to be wary of a burn-up on a tight course where track position can be crucial – if they don’t go too hard, that is.

2.05pm Haydock – Givemefive could get an uncontested lead

The going at Haydock is currently good, good to firm in places, but that only tells half the story.

To say they have been watering is something of an understatement.

You may not like watering, but one pre-requisite of courses doing so should be that they must tell punters the complete picture, so they can make their own minds up.

Kind of like clerks with going stick readings.

Haydock have been exemplary in this regard, as you can see below.

If you can’t be bothered to scroll down, here it is: “Last 2 weeks average 8mm on six applications. Following a period offline due to repair, recommenced with 16mm on Tuesday. Wednesday 10mm circuit, with 16mm home straight. 10mm Thursday. 5mm Friday.”

That’s a hell of a lot, and showers are forecast on Friday and Saturday.

Givemefive could get an uncontested lead here, which I imagine has been factored into his price ranging from [15/8] to [9/4] in a place.

I don’t have a betting opinion in this race , especially as I was hoping for a bit more from Luttrell Lad at Aintree last time and 5s is probably no more than fair about him here.

2.25pm Musselburgh – 22/1 Persuasion appeals most

This is another race in which pace could be crucial, as I have six possible forward-goers in here (see pace map below), so jockeys are going to have to be cute.

It’s a hard enough handicap to solve without that factor.

The sexy one is obviously William Haggas’ Waleefy, a half-brother to Baaeed and Hukum, and the stable form wouldn’t put you off there after a treble at Newmarket on Thursday. It is not hard to see him winning, or indeed any of these doing so.

Actually, it is now, as Waleefy was declared a NR at 9.24am on Friday due to coughing.

My two against the field are Dain My Nut In and Persuasion, though it has to be said I haven’t had a bet yet and probably won’t (I will if either of these two drift on the exchange).

Both have had a recent run, and in the case of the former very recent, as he finished third here last Sunday, a performance that can be upgraded a touch, as he was always on the back foot after a tardy start.

I personally wouldn’t go overboard about that, as he didn’t really shine thereafter, and you’d like to see the stable in better form, but, against that, the dual course winner is a fair price at 10s (the 14s and 12s having been taken on Thursday).

Persuasion is tempting at 22s (in one place) as the outsider of the field.

He is the old man of the party at eight (alongside Gweedore, who runs in first-time cheekpieces after a good run here last week) but a run at Southwell last month would have blown away the cobwebs and he is down to a mark of 87, which he won off at Haydock just four starts ago.

He tends to need his first start of the season badly, so that last of seven at Southwell would not unduly concern me, and he could well outrun these odds on his Musselburgh debut (the stable have a decent record here).

He is the kind of horse I will look to back win-only on Betfair if he proves weak in the betting and drifts.

On the subject of drifters, which don’t tend to bother me, Masaccio went off at a massive price when winning at Ayr last week.

I wrote that he was the right favourite at [10/3] in this column last week, but you could back him at 14.5 at the off.

Sometimes it does pay to stick to your guns in extreme circumstances.

2.40pm Haydock – 9/1 An Tailliur weighted to do some damage if they have got him right

Another seven-runner race and another contest that did not initially appeal as a betting heat, though a lot of firms are paying three places here (see Oddschecker).

We have three forward-goers in there, so that could suit a closer like An Tailliur, who is 9s in a place and [17/2] and 8s with outfits paying those three places.

Now, I am not a fan of the stable – it’s okay to say that about trainers and jockeys, as we all have our preferences – but if the ground rides as it is currently described (and there are showers due in the next 24 hours) then that should suit this horse, who comes here off a mark in relative freefall.

There is good reason for that (i.e. he has been running poorly) but he is now a stone lower than when sixth in the Pertemps in 2023 (that was officially soft, but Timeform called it good to soft), so he is weighted to do some damage if they have got him back on track at home.

Connections believe he wants decent ground, which is largely borne out by the formbook, and he has won on his only start at this track.

Yes, I can see the case for him at the price, even if the bet comes with obvious risks attached given the 9yo’s current form (and he is the oldest in here).

3pm Musselburgh – Consistent Jer Batt set to go well again

We are now down to just seven runners, so the each way terms have changed.

I can see Jer Batt, in same ownership (and trainers) of Persuasion, going well but this 5f handicap left me pretty cold, so I won’t be having a bet.

The case for Jer Batt is that he won first time out in 2023 and ran really well after a very long absence on his reappearance in June last year (presumably had a hold-up).

He holds a Haydock verdict over American Affair last summer and was beaten only a head by Cover Up on his final start at Doncaster (he is only 1lb higher here).

He is remarkably consistent for a sprint handicapper and he has won his only start at this track in April 2023, but his general price of [9/2] is not that enticing.

Twilight Fun is a NR as at 9.52am on Friday due to the going. And Tatterstall is a NR as at 7.41am on Saturday (going).

3.15pm Haydock – 12/1 Le Milos has claims in these shallower, older waters

A 10-runner 199k veterans’ chase, but I really don’t have much to offer here.

If pushed (and I won’t be) Le Milos looks fairly priced at 12s on his Warwick win in February and these are shallower waters than the company he has kept on both starts since.

He is versatile as regards the ground and being the youngest horse in here (along with fellow 10yos The Flier Begley and Whistleinthedark) is no bad thing. He’d be the bet if you want one. I don’t.

Whistleinthedark is a NR at 8.48am with a knocked joint. You may get a 5pm Rule 4 there.

3.35pm Musselburgh – 8/1 chances Wise Eagle and Align The Stars are the each-way angles against a highly dangerous favourite

Only one of the 23 five-day entries didn’t confirm for this race at the overnight stage, so make sure you get your money back if you punted any of the eight balloted-out horses (details below).

I thought this was another tremendously tricky handicap.

If you asked me for a horse most likely to be placed in the first four, I’d probably say the 2023 winner Wise Eagle, who was actually the last of the 22 to confirm for this race on Thursday, close to 10am.

He has had a break since February after a busy and successful time hurdling (he also had a good second on the Flat at Newcastle in January) and his record around here is something to behold.

Well, perhaps not behold, but you get the gist.

He is five from six here, and the other run saw him beaten a short-head.

He is actually 7s, five places, with one firm and that looks good business to me for those who can access it.

Maybe even more so than the 8s, four places, elsewhere.

Both are decent bets, though.

I suppose he is vulnerable for the win off a mark of 103, though unfortunately the biggest fly in the winning ointment, Wild Waves, is just 3s.

A Melrose fourth, we last saw him running in the St Leger. He got raised 5lb for that, but even a revised mark of 100 still makes him look very feasibly handicapped after that 7-length sixth of seven in the Classic.

But it is no thanks at 3s.

Align The Stars is officially the best handicapped in horse in here, being 1lb well-on after a close third to Al Qareem in a Listed race at Nottingham 10 days ago.

That allays fears about the modest form of the stable, and this horse was seriously progressive last season before blowing out in Group 1 and 2 company on his final two starts.

Back in handicap company, and only 2lb higher than when winning at Goodwood in August, he is weighted to go well.

I am not sure this track will play to his strengths, but he looks another solid each-way play to me at 8s in two places.

The 7s, five places, is another decent option too for those who can.

BEST BETS

Wise Eagle at 8s each way, four places, or 7s, five places, in 3.35pm at Musselburgh

Align The Stars at 8s each way, four places, in 3.35pm at Musselburgh. Available in two places.

GOING AND WEATHER – updated 7.32am Saturday

 

HAYDOCK (well done for providing full watering details )

 

GOING: Good (from good, good to firm places)

Going stick: 7.1 at Saturday 7.20am (was 7.4 Thursday 8am)

Soil moisture average 54 per cent

Rails: Innermost Chase and Hurdle. Chase fences moved to the inner by 4yds back straight with healthy grass cover.

Saturday morning update: 19mm following our last raceday, then dry March 25th to April 13th. 6.8mm last 7 days. Forecast rain generally didn’t materialize throughout the week. Outlook: Dry and mostly overcast during racing, odd sunny spell. 14°C.

Watering (a lot): 16mm on Tuesday. Wednesday 10-16mm. 10mm Thursday. 5mm Friday.

Forecast: Dry Saturday

 

MUSSELBURGH (12mm of rain Tuesday and Wednesday; 2mm Thursday; 1mm on Saturday morning)

 

GOING

Round: Good, good to soft in places

Straight: Good to soft, good in places

Going stick:  6.7 at Saturday 7am (was 6.8 Thursday)

Stalls: 5f Grandstand side. All others inner line.

Rails: Fresh line down the back straight. Bottom bend out to standard position with drop in.

Saturday morning update: Partly Cloudy. 0mm 24 hours. Sat – mix of cloud and sunshine, 0.0 – 1.0mm this morning, 11*. Light N/E breeze increasing to 15mph breeze through afternoon.

Forecast: Dry Saturday

 

BALLOTED OUT (8 in total) – make sure you get your money back on these

 

3.35pm Musselburgh: Kitteridge, Maghlaak, Robert Johnson, Liam Swagger, Knightswood, Knockbrex, Cavern Club, Gibside

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS 

 

Olly Murphy – cheekpieces  13-89 since 2017 – Schmilsson, 2,05pm Haydock

Katie Scott cheekpieces  3-17 since 2018 Gweedore, 2.25pm Musselburgh

Brian Ellison cheekpieces  10-133 since 2016 – Laafy, 3.35pm Musselburgh

 

PACE MAPS (manually done)

 

1.50pm Musselburgh: Castle Stuart (prom), Thunder Wonder (prom), Invited, Zowal (prom), We Dare To Dream, Our Mighty Mo, Hot Dancer, Wiltshire Lad (prom)

2.05pm Haydock: Givemefive

2.25pm Musselburgh: Lord Bertie, Gweedore, Lexington Belle, Dain Ma Nut In, Persuasion (prom), Benacre

2.40pm Haydock: Thank You Ma’am, Tiny Tetley, Burrows Hall

3pm Musselburgh: Jm Jungle (prom), Mon Na Slieve (prom), Vince L’Amour

3.15pm Haydock: Eldorado Allen?, Numitor, Le Milos (prom), Glynn,. Flic Ou Voyou, Spyglass Hill (prom), Whistleinthedark

3.35pm Musselburgh: Align The Stars, Intinso (prom), La Pulga, Struth?

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done; ITV races)

 

Good: Harry Derham, Tom Lacey, Henry Hogarth (two runners, two winners), Gary Hanmer, Andrew Balding (another double on Friday), Ed Bethell, Craig Lidster, James Owen (two big-priced winners on Thursday),  Hobbs and White, Adrian Keatley, Simon and Ed Crisford (winner on Friday), Adam Nicol (last three runners have won), Billy Aprahamian, Olly Murphy (last three runners have won), William Haggas (three winners on Thursday)

Fair: Fergal O’Brien, Dan Skelton (double on Thursday, so probably nearer good), Georgina Nicholls (small sample), Heather Main, Anthony Honeyball, Barry Brennan, Nick Alexander, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, George Boughey, David O’Meara (11-1 winner on Thursday), Jennie Candlish, Katie Scott, Richard Fahey, Kevin Ryan (winners on Thursday and Friday), Tim Easterby (40-1 winner on Thursday), Brian Ellison, Declan Carroll (arguably good), Hugo Palmer (14-1 winner on Thursday), Alan King, Tracy Waggott (200-1 winner on Friday….), John and Sean Quinn, Laura Morgan, Parkinson and Smith, David and Nicola Barron (small sample), Charlie Fellowes (11-2 winner on Friday), Karl Burke

Moderate:  Charlie Johnston, Alice Haynes (winner in France , though), Jim Goldie, Michael Dods (though 14-1 winner on Thursday), Michael and David Easterby (a few have run well, as you’d expect with the numbers), Lucinda Russell. Joe Tizzard (form tailing off a bit)

Don’t know: Stuart Edmunds, George Bewley, Chelsea Banham