TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY’s bets – and a fair few of them to finish off a quiet week with a flourish

1.50pm Goodwood – Song looks a solid each-way 6/1 shot

I think Sing Us A Song will take some kicking out of the frame here, so I am more than happy to back him each-way with the safety net of an extra place.

He is available at [6/1] and [11/2], four places, with three firms offering the 6s as at 12.19pm on Friday.

I still believe the horse he finished second to at York in May (indeed the horse he beat over this 1m6f trip at Haydock last season), Klassleader, remains a very smart prospect in spite of a mystifyingly bad run on the July course next time – I’ll forgive any horse a bad run at that track – and I am glad James Doyle is back on board after James McDonald rode him to finish fifth at Royal Ascot last time.

Of course, the Kiwi is a world-class jockey but I prefer home-based jockeys and McDonald certainly didn’t get an ideal passage at Ascot, most of which was not his fault obviously, especially when he got tightened up close home.

In the circumstances, a three-length fifth there was a perfectly good effort but I think there is a better performance lurking within.

He may not be the most straightforward but hopefully Doyle can win the battle for the lead without using too much early gas – and stay there.

He shouldn’t have been allowed to race, after getting stuck and very upset in the stalls here last year, and this course winner can hopefully finish in the first four at the very least.

By the way, plenty were balloted out of this race, so get your money back if you backed any in the list below.

2.08pm Thirsk – Take Two with 15/2 Mirsky

Fondo Blanco is a NR at 8.37am on Friday (bruised foot).

I’m happy to give the other non-Goodwood ITV race a swerve (the 1.33pm at Newmarket) but I am getting involved here.

If I fancied Mirsky to run a race in the big 1m handicap at Goodwood on Friday (albeit at 40s), which he got pulled out of because of the going, then I feel duty bound to give him a spin at [15/2] here, for all it is a deep enough contest, with Jeddaal a particularly dangerous rival (11/4 favourite).

I have backed him win-only, and had a separate bet each-way too, both at [15/2], available with 11 firms as this goes live (four firms are offering four places, but I couldn’t access that combo unfortunately).

Of course, it will probably be equally as fast here as it would have been at Goodwood, but we don’t really know as Thirsk are not telling us just how much they have watered.

Poor.

Mirsky can actually race off his proper, current mark here (he was 1lb higher in the Goodwood early-closer) and he is two from three around here – both of those successes coming on good to firm ground, so go figure – including when winning the Thirsk Hunt Cup off this mark in May.

He shaped far better than his finishing position would suggest at Sandown last time, and [15/2] looks a decent bet to me.

There is plenty of pace in here , which should suit. He tanks along when on song and connections must have liked the look of this race to swerve Goodwood.

That’s my take anyway.

3pm – 6/1 Santorini Star looks set to get an uncontested lead

Little Dorrit is a NR as at 4.35pm on Friday (bruised foot), so I imagine an extra place is history.

I don’t have a betting opinion or interest in the 1m4f Group 3 at 2.25pm (though I do think 13/2 and 6s poke Ghostwriter is a little overpriced, and I am not talking about the two million they paid for him in London last June – I could chuck a tenner at him at those odds, I guess)  so I’ll skip straight to the 1m6f Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes.

Santorini Star comes here on the back of a woeful effort in the Hardwicke last time (admittedly in the face of a very stiff task) and carries a 3lb penalty, but I was initially very keen to give her a spin at 6s here.

It could well be that she resented the first-time cheekpieces at Ascot, as they are left off here, and the lead looks hers for the taking (an angle that I may be overplaying, admittedly).

She is a tough mother to pass when out in front, though.

Admittedly, Caballo De Mar got the better of her in a photo in a 1m7f+ Group 1 in France two starts ago and she got her arse handed to her by Consent in the Royallieu last season, but they were clearly smashing efforts regardless and maybe this quicker surface suits her better (though it was only good to soft on both occasions in France according to Timeform, and not as per the official description of soft and very soft, so no-one should go overboard about deep ground being a reason for the defeats).

She got the better of Consent by a neck on good ground in last season’s Park Hill Stakes though, and hopefully she is back on form and brings her tenacious attitude to the table.

But the more I looked at the race, the more the doubts crept in.

I am a big fan of last year’s winner Waardah (and her trainer, but the 2s about her is nothing flash) and Danielle, and clearly her other four rivals all have their chances at their respective prices.

And Consent comes firmly into the equation with her stable in comfortably the best form they have been in all year. They have had an odds-on poke beaten recently but the rest have all been running well, if not winning.

Hands up,  I have had a small bet but it is not something I can shout from the rooftops about as it is only available with one firm.

I have managed to get £50 ew on Santorini Star each way, three places, at 6s, something I feel a bit sheepish about after listening to Harry on Monday’s podcast…

And it has probably served me right with the non-runner listed above.

That combo was big enough to allow for the doubts about her form and the opposition. But I doubt I’ll get it now….

3.35pm  – Two against the field for me – Annaf and Dark Thirty

I must be getting old – given the amount of time I have spent in doctor surgeries and hospitals in the last five years would underline that – as the appeal of these massive-field sprint handicaps are diminishing rapidly.

And I wasn’t the biggest fan in the first place…

Live draw was interesting shocker….

I knew that one day one of these live draws would throw up something useful, and before the Stewards’ Cup version on Thursday morning, a Turftrax representative revealed that the ground was quicker on the far side (ie for those drawn low).

Unfortunately, I didn’t take note of the details of what he said.

And neither did anyone else, as connections of the horses all proceeded to take the high draws for their horses!

I have tweeted Turftrax and Goodwood to ask what the readings are because there is nothing on the BHA site.

It’d be good to know, even if you ignore them, too…

Turftrax got back to me in a very timely manner and the readings are as follows: Stand: 7.5, Centre: 7.4 and Far 7.7

Let’s take our lead from the handicapper and the going stick readings then

Now, I definitely won’t be larging it here – as you will soon see – and I am going to keep it simple.

Dark Thirty is drawn low in eight and is officially the best handicapped horse in here, being 5lb well-in, so he will do for me as an interest.

He may well get bigger, too.

He is available at 14s fixed-odds, but in fact I have just had £15 on him win-only on Betfair at an average of 22.34. Maybe the layers have seen his moderate Goodwood form and decide to take their chances.

However, the 6yo is in the form of his life after a 1/2 length second to Sondad (also in here with a 6lb penalty) in a 20-runner 6f handicap at the Curragh last time and I’ve had a minimal win-only bet on him and my old mate Annaf, who I thought was luckless over 5f at Ascot last time (yes, I am pocket-talking).

If the cards fall right for him (that costly word “if” again), he is a player here at 16s. Once again though, I have just had £15 win-only at 26.0.

He is drawn six and didn’t run too badly off a 7lb higher mark in this race last year.

I may also try and back him at 18s, five places.

Two darts and I’d prefer Annaf at the prices.

I’ll probably hit the wall and not even the board, but even so….

4.10pm – 8/1 Startled is the main choice here but small beer

This is one tough 3yo 7f handicap , and I was more than a little surprised to see We’re Goosers as favourite ranging between [11/4] and [7/2] here considering he finished last in the Britannia last time.

But he did go off as the 4s favourite at Royal Ascot and has been gelded since, so someone believes he is capable of a winning recovery mission.

For what it is worth, my shortlist of two are Aqpan and Startled, priced at 18s and 8s respectively.

Roger Varian has his string in great form (he is probably just about the form UK trainer) and Aqpan looks fairly treated on his handicap debut on his Greenham sixth. But, like We’re Goosers, he has something to prove after a poor run last time and a subsequent gelding.

I’ll have a win-only saver on him at 20s+ I imagine, but Startled will be my main bet in the race at 8s each way, four places (available with four firms), despite being drawn 12 of 13.

Though I certainly won’t be going mad on the stakes front (currently trading at 14s for pennies on Betfair).

I thought he hated every second of his time at Chester on his latest outing, so I will ignore that run (unfortunately the handicapper has too) and his earlier second to the hugely impressive Catullus here in May gives him every chance off just a 2lb higher mark. He had previously done wonders to win at York, too.

We may get a better handle on that course form when Catallus runs in the 2.25pm at Goodwood on Friday (ran a blinder considering he was in there as a pacemaker) but Startled looks a fair win and place proposition regardless, and Harry Vigors takes 5lb off.

I have no opinion on Vigors but 24 wins this year at a strike rate of 12 per cent from 199 rides (25 seconds and 22 thirds) looks a decent return.

By the way, the favourite in the 4.45, Al Wathba, is a NR as at 4.56pm (going).

BEST BET (and biggest bet on the day for me)

Sing Us A Song each way at 6/1 in 1.50pm (get the best price and place terms your accounts allow – but 6s and four places is generally available)

(I have also backed Santorini Star, Mirsky, Dark Thirty , Annaf, Agpan and Startled – see above – and I may throw a tenner at Ghostwriter, too…)

1.COURSE DETAILS

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good to firm (was changed to good to firm after race 6 on Friday)

Going Stick: 7.6, Friday 7.35am

Stand: 7.5, Centre: 7.4 and Far 7.7

32.4% soil moisture

Rails: All races will be run on inner lines

Stalls: 5f, 6f; Centre 1m3f & 1m4f; Outside Rest; Inside

FRIDAY COURSE UPDATE: 0.4mm rain Sunday. A dry & settled outlook 25-29C for the week. Current weather details from our weather station available here; https://bit.ly/2E6dYhB

WATERING: 10mm to the Straight Monday 15mm to the Round Course Tuesday 12mm to the Straight Wednesday 10mm to the Round Course Thursday 7.5mm to the Straight Friday 5mm to Round Course Saturday 8mm to Straight Sunday 5mm Mile to 6f Monday 5mm to the Round Course Tuesday night 5mm to Straight and 3.5mm to bends Wednesday night; 5mm to the Round Course and 3.5mm to bends Thursday night

Weather forecast:  Dry and sunny, 24-25 degrees

NEWMARKET

GOING: Good to firm

Going Stick: 7.1, Friday 7am

Rails: Far Side Course in use.

Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre, All other races – Inside

FRIDAY COURSE UPDATE: 1mm of rain overnight. Forecast: Dry with temperatures reaching of 23/24c for racing.

WATERING: 12mm applied on Friday and Tuesday. Further 15mm applied on Thursday.

Weather forecast:  25 degrees, hot and sunny

THIRSK

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

Going Stick: 8.2, Wed 4.15pm

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside 1M4F Start: Stands’Side

WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: Partly Cloudy. A dry outlook through to racing at the weekend.

WATERING: “Watering to hold” – so basically no details given

Weather forecast:  20 degrees and sunny

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Brian Meehan hood; Miss Justice, 1.33pm Newmarket 3-27 (since 2012)

George Scott blinkers; West Acre, 3.35pm; 6-48 (2016)

Stuart Williams blinkers; Utmost Good Faith, 4.10pm; 0-19 (2009)

Ralph Beckett cheekpieces; Egoli, 4.10pm; 10-69 (2016)

Ralph Beckett visor; Revoir, 1.33pm Newmarket; 15-91 (2009)

Richard Hughes cheekpieces; Marengo Storm, 4.10pm; 17-158 (2016)

3.BALLOTED OUT HORSES (get your ante-post money back on these)

1.50pm Goodwood: Dancing In Paris, Sixpack, Majestic, Marnier, Aqwaam, Oneforthegutter, Galilean Quality, Hermetic, Gooloogong

3.35pm Goodwood: Purosangue, Fast Track Harry, Dance In The Storm, Calico Blue, Apollo One, Kylian, Bolo Neighs,  City House, Trefor, Dark Cloud Rising, Toyotomi, Addison Grey, Coul Angel, Jungle Drums, Twilight Calls, Too Darn Hot, Arklow Lad, Divine Libra, Desert Cop, The Man, Ghost Mode, Topwarrior, Dark Ace, Veblen Good, Twilight Jet, Amazing Journey, Dyonisos, Seven Questions, Rydale Frosty, Musical Touch, Rappers Delight, Betsen, Dream Composer, Eye Of Dubai, Purest Time

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.33pm Newmarket: Orionis (drawn 9), Revoir (6), Ryka (2), Gone By (5), Romantic Symphony (1)

1.50pm Goodwood: Align The Stars (10), Burdett Road (7), Nightime Dancer (14), Sing Us A Song (4), Incensed? (2)

2.08pm Thirsk: Dain Ma Nut In (1) Northern Express (4), Mr Swivell (2),  Priapos (9)

2.25pm Goodwood (no obvious pace): Ghostwriter (prom – 4), Midak? (7)

3pm Goodwood: Santorini Star (4)

3.35pm Goodwood: Soldier’s Tree (20), Run Boy Run (24), Get It (27), Fandom (22), Hammer The Hammer (16), Berkshire Whisper (19), Candy (1), Dark Thirty (8), Gold Star Hero (4), Toca Madera (26)

4.10pm Goodwood: Aqpan (6), We’re Goosers (2), Utmost Good Faith (11), Ghost Mode (4), Ay Up Duck (9)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; form going into Friday)