By Tony Calvin - 5 February 2026
There is an inspection at Warwick at 7.30am (passed – see below)
I have no idea how much they ended up getting yesterday, but it may well have been more than forecast looking at various weather sites last night.
Yes, I am a sad bastard but it was either that or Friday Night Live, and I already know how to get wet, not hear people on the TV properly, talk shite, get pissed, slur badly, how not to pull a Judy, swig wine from the bottle and want to chin annoying youngsters – those observations were garnered from ITV Racing highlight clip-ups on X, by the way…
They may be inspecting a touch early at Warwick as the rain is due to start between 7-8am and hang in for a while.
They have actually passed their inspection about an hour early despite 15mm yesterday, which was a deal more than forecast.
Newbury haven’t called an inspection after getting incredibly lucky with the rain on Friday afternoon (still got 7.8mm in total on Friday). They may not be totally out of the woods just yet. The going stick readings suggests it will be incredibly testing there if it is on (there was standing water in places yesterday).
They got 0.2mm in the early hours and it is due to start raining again very shortly according to various sites, and stick around til 10am and maybe return a bit later.
Indeed, the Met Office radar map says they are starting to cop it now (Newbury’s rain gauge has been working on a hour-plus delay on occasions this week, for some reason, so that is not an accurate live barometer).
I’ll update when the courses do, but both tracks are in for a wet morning (latest details below).
Newbury are good to go, too.
Both courses are reporting heavy (soft, in places) .
That amuses my cynical side – it basically says we are bottomless (see going sticks), but please run, as it isn’t that bad….(which it may not be, to be fair – the opening times will tell us more).
No surprise to see Sober Glory now just 6/5 best on Friday morning from a generally available 7/4. And the 6/5 has become 10/11 best on Friday afternoon.
(There is a big Rule 4 now though, as Fantasy World was a NR as at 4.12pm (going), which is a shame given what I wrote below!)
This could all revolve around how good the hurdling debutant Fantasy World, top priced at [5/2], is.
But there are doubts there, all right.
On Flat form, his opponents would clearly have to fear him greatly, as a 103-rated performer on the level and a 4yo getting 22lb from the older Sober Glory and 18lb from Kadastral and Kocktail Bleu, the horses with proven form in the can.
But who knows just how good Fantasy World’s hurdling has been at home and how will he cope with proper heavy, winter, National Hunt ground?
I’d be pretty worried on the latter point, as Timeform have him as showing his best form on good to soft at the worst (he has only raced on soft ground once according to them, on his debut) but his raw, considerable class is there for all to see.
Not least from his owner, who paid 600,000 guineas for him after he won a 1m6f Listed race at Ascot in October for Andrew Balding.
He is now a non-runner (see above).
But [7/4] chance Sober Glory is clearly a major rival here, even if he has to give weight all around, and a whopping 22lb to Fantasy World.
Indeed, many of the premier Time Bandits reckon he is one to seriously consider for the Supreme after putting up a hefty performance on the clock when beating Tuesday’s winner It’s Top easily here last month.
And the 20-length fourth also ran well in defeat when second at Taunton on Tuesday.
And Timeform have him down as winning his Exeter bumper on heavy ground, too.
Good bumper horse Kadastral, who Sober Glory beat by 12 lengths at Chepstow and who won at this track last time (not overly-convincing at 2/9 from a horse whose was well-beaten at a short price next time), is next best in at 2s.
I’d have Sober Glory as much, much stronger/shorter than him in the betting than is currently the case – Kadastral also has questions to answer on this surface – and the only other horse given serious credence in the market is Kocktail Bleu at 12s (it is 40s bar the first four in the market).
He could need better ground, though – and indeed the ground here could be a great leveller, which is something to bear in mind across the card, and at Warwick.
If the Newbury hurdling track gets much worse (and a Thursday morning going stick reading of 3.3 suggested it was already very deep), then I think we can expect NRs throughout the day, and maybe some surprising results.
But no way would I be laying Sober Glory at [7/4] here. That price is available in seven places as this goes live (at 1.45pm, Tuesday), including with AKBets.
He is now [8/15] best on Saturday morning (5.15am). But Kocktail Bleu has just come out at 7.14am (going), so he may just have one to beat now.
I have seen Sky Sports Racing reporting a 7/4 to 2/5 move for Sober Glory all morning – embarrassing.
Those two NRs (second and fourth favourites) do come at/with a price, you know.
Clueless reporting.
With 15mm yesterday and maybe another 5mm to come this morning, Warwick could be even more testing than Newbury, which is saying something.
This race has cut up badly (with five of the five-day entries running in the other mares’ hurdle at 3pm – don’t get me started on that) and I am not sure that [6/5] favourite Jubilee Alpha (that’s across the board) will handle/relish this ground, and likewise [9/2] poke La Pinsonniere.
I won’t be having a bet (I really do think Warwick could ride very deep) but I have seen worse betting angles than trying to lay Jubilee Alpha at [11/8] or less – she is currently [2.34].
With Analiese out, Hollygrove Cha Cha could get an easy lead and I can see why she has been trimmed into [9/4].
She’d definitely be my one to beat in the conditions/pace scenario.
By the way we have lost three in the opener at 12.40pm at Warwick, and we are down to just seven runners there.
When decs tracking on Thursday, a half-interesting fact (if that) was that Dan Skelton confirmed Tranquil Sea first and then only later stuck his A Pai De Nom in the race.
And Paul Nicholls left it until the last minute to declare his Below The Radar.
That pair are currently [5/4] – the former was actually [15/8] in a place first thing this morning – and [5/1] at best prices.
Of course, they have their chances but they are walkaway prices to me, particularly the fav.
I could see why Kyntara had been nibbled at into [13/2] despite running a shocker at Haydock last time, but he has drifted from [13/2] to 9s as I have been watching the markets since 5am.
That looks set to set bigger, too.
Sure, the ground may have been a bit too lively for him, but it may have been a touch more than that as Charlie Deutsch did not seem that interested from an early stage.
Whatever the reason, he got dropped 2lb for it and a mark of 129 gives him sound claims on her earlier Cheltenham and Aintree efforts, with this testing ground (and it really does promise to be very hard work) a real bonus.
Most of his best form has come on soft and heavy ground, and indeed he finished a good second in this very race on heavy in 2024.
The run last time out is an obvious concern, as was the form of the stable until a couple of recent seconds, so you can’t get carried away, but I have backed him win-only at 12s+.
I want to see him kicked out in front, as I reckon an uncontested lead is Charlie’s for the taking.
It won’t surprise you in the slightest that I have no opinion whatsoever in this three-runner novices’ chase in bad ground.
Mambonumberfive has been backed into slight favouritism at [11/10], with Steel Ally at [6/5] and Mirabad at [15/2]. The latter’s price may actually be coming under pressure.
I will say that I have seen Steel Ally’s trainer Sam Thomas in better form.
A bitterly disappointing turn-out of just four for this 90k Grade 2 Denman Chase but, on the plus side, there could have been worse match-races (and it really is hard to see Riskintheground and Leave Of Absence playing a role here, as they are outclassed and are good ground horses – I am more than a little surprised to see Leave Of Absence as short as 6s now, what is that all about) than Haiti Couleurs versus L’Homme Presse.
I suppose the fact that Haiti Couleurs only has one serious rival to beat for a 51k+ first prize vindicates Rebecca Curtis’ decision to avoid the DRF.
The market has corrected itself for this race now, as L’Homme Presse was 2s on Thursday but is now a general [11/8] chance, with the Curtis horse at a drifting [10/11].
I could waffle on about this contest with a view to saying “No Bet” in a few paragraphs time, but let’s cut straight to the chase.
I personally think L’Homme Presse may just edge it as he ran wonderfully well trying to give Spillane’s Tower 6lb in the Cotswold Chase last time, for all this is a quick turnaround for him after such a big effort, but I won’t be having a bet.
This market has changed a fair bit from the 48-hour stage, with Guard Your Dreams now topping the betting at [5/2], and original jolly Le Milos out to [9/2].
Grandeur d’Ame is also been cut into [10/3] and set to get shorter, it seems.
Indeed, Le Milos is out to [11/2]-plus on the exchange to very small sums.
That current price is actually relatively appealing as an in-form horse, proven in heavy and at this track (was a smashed-up 5/4 winner of this race last year).
In addition, the cheekpieces, which he has worn on his last two successes, are back on.
He is a fair play at [9/2] or bigger, and I have had a nibble.
The going on the chase track may be marginally better than that on the hurdles, but it still registered a going stick reading of just 3.5 on Friday (same today) and I’d be pleasantly surprised if they risked bottoming Arkle favourite Lulamba here.
He has never raced on anything worse than good to soft in the UK, and this may not be a race in which he can saunter to success without coming off the Billy/Eric, as the current odds may be suggesting.
He has undoubtedly looked a class act in chase victories at Exeter and Sandown (clocked a good time in latter) but this is his stiffest task over fences to date at these weights, and I wouldn’t go anywhere near him at a best price of [8/15]. The early hours [8/13] was taken.
If he runs, he surely won’t be asked to go the well in order to win, and 5s poke Saint Segal doesn’t look a bad price with Libberty Hunter a dangerous floater at 10s (bigger win-only).
I’d probably rather be more of a layer than a backer of Lulamba at [1.56] but I won’t be playing here either.
I am rather hoping Milldam doesn’t win this race, for purely selfish reasons.
We all know trying to get a bet on these days is rather difficult when it comes to horse racing (I guess it the same with other sports, too) but I missed the boat in trying to back this horse at 50s on Wednesday by a matter of two minutes, and it’d rather annoy me if he wins, as the current, general 12s (16s and 14s is available) is not such an attractive betting proposition.
Basically, I asked a friend to ask another friend to try and get me on each way, ante-post, at 50s late on Wednesday afternoon, but by the time the third (or is it fourth) party answered their Whatsapp and checked the prices, the horse had been cut to 25s two minutes earlier.
And I couldn’t access the 33s either, so I left it there.
Which could come to back haunt me as Milldam is a real slop merchant and I can see him loving this test (though he is an unsexy beast, so could easily hit 30.0 pre-race again).
Tutti Quanti is another horse whose price has rather run away from me in the last 24 hours (he was 9s this time yesterday and the current [11/2] is now coming under pressure so maybe that ship has sailed, too).
That said, it would not totally surprise me if he went off favourite ahead of Let It Rain though, for all [9/4] currently plays 5s. The more you watch his win here last time the more impressed you are.
I will have a bet on him so I don’t lose if he wins, even at the much-reduced price.
I tipped and backed Lanesborough ante-post at 12s on Tuesday, so I think I will just stick with that main play.
For now at least, though I must admit I have gone off him a touch for some reason (he is currently best at 10s).
I don’t know what went wrong with him over 2m5f on good ground at Kempton last time, as he could only plug on to be beaten 10 lengths, but perhaps the step back down to 2m on much. much softer ground here, in hopefully a strongly-run race, will see him confirm the promise of a super-impressive Doncaster success over this trip previously.
He is 14lb higher here but he looked full value for that rise at Donny, as he beat a well-handicapped runner in second pointless (Williethebuilder), and conditions look much more his bag here.
It was good at Kempton but this horse is proven on soft/heavy, and this more galloping track is also expected to suit, too.
Incidentally, Williethebuilder, the horse he beat pulling a cart by 8 1/2 lengths at Doncaster, is now actually 15lb higher now.
BEST BETS (take best prices your accounts allow when reading this – see copy for prices at time of column going live – minimal-stakes day)
Kyntara win-only in 1.35pm Newbury
Le Milos win-only in 2.25pm Warwick
GOING – Chase: Heavy, soft in places; Hurdles: Heavy, soft in places
GOING STICK –Hurdles: 3.3 ; Chase: 3.5 (Saturday 6am)
Saturday morning course update: A further 2.5mm since my update at 3pm yesterday. Dry for 13 hours yesterday evening. Forecast: 2-3mm rain expected today, a light breeze.
Weather (yr.no latest – as at 5.15am Saturday): 4.7mm Saturday, starting at 6am
GOING STICK: 4.5, Saturday 8am
Saturday morning course update: 21mm fell last week; 6mm Tuesday, 9mm Thursday and 15mm yesterday up until 11pm last night. Dry overnight. We are forecast light, drizzly rain from 9am, 2-4mm throughout the day.
Weather (yr.no latest – as at 5.15am): 5.1mm Saturday, looks to be starting at 8am
1pm Newbury : Sober Glory, Gulf Coast Highway, Typhoon Warrior – Fantasy World and Kocktail Bleu are NRs.
1.15pm Warwick : Hollygrove Cha Cha has an easy lead now – Analiese is a NR
1.35pm Newbury: Kyntara, Alentejo?
1.50pm Warwick : Steel Ally, Mirabad
2.10pm Newbury: L’Homme Presse, Riskintheground? (very unlikely but has made it), Haiti Couleurs (prom), Leave Of Absence (prom)
2.25pm Warwick : Le Milos (prom)?, Guard Your Dreams, Grandeur d’Ame (prom), Lord Baddesley
2.45pm Newbury : Calico (prom), Saint Segal, Meetmebythesea – Brookie is a NR
3.20pm Newbury : Bucephalus, Wellington Arch, Un Sens A La Vie, Milldam, Dance And Glance – Hot Fuss is a NR
Good: Jamie Snowden, Paul Nicholls (excellent), Dan Skelton (another double on Thursday), Anthony Honeyball, Olly Murphy, Rebecca Curtis
Fair: Nicky Henderson (double on Thursday), Ben Pauling, Nigel and Willy Twiston Davies (double on Thursday), Alan King (winner on Wednesday), Hobbs and White , Chris Gordon, Neil Mulholland (fair/good – another winner on Thursday), Faye Bramley, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (winner on Wednesday), Evan Williams, Tom Dascombe (very small sample), Warren Greatrex
Moderate: Mickey Bowen, Mel Rowley (though his last two runners have come second, so maybe nothing much to worry about there), Sam Thomas (usually excellent), Venetia Williams, Jane Williams, Stuart Edmunds
Don’t know: Richard Hobson, Seamus Mullins, Tom Ward
Confusion sorted There seems to be confusion as to why my 20/1 ante-post fancy Grand…
TUESDAY race-by-race copy for Saturday 1.15pm Ascot – First three in the betting are due…
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