TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY stats and info for the ITV races

SATURDAY DETAILS

NEWMARKET

GOING – Good, good to firm in places

Going stick: 6.7, Thursday (was 7.4, Wednesday 7am) – fair change for 3mm on a dry day

Rails: Stands Side Course in Use

Stalls: Centre

Thursday morning course update: Dry past 24 hours. Forecast: Dry and cloudy with the odd sunny spell, max daytime temps of 16c

Weather:  Dry

Watering: 3mm applied on Wednesday.

YORK

GOING – Good

Going stick: 5.4, Thursday 8.30am

Moisture meter reading: 37%

Rails: Planned rail position: Friday rail in innermost position. Saturday rail position tbc

Stalls: 5f and 6f – Centre. Remainder – Inside rail.

Thursday morning course update: Dry overnight and a cool, clear Thursday morning. Recent rainfall of 0.8mm rain Wednesday, 8.8mm in the last 7 days. Met Office forecast: Thursday – dry and mild with sunny intervals, 18 degrees. Friday – dry with sunny spells and a westerly breeze, 17 degrees. Saturday – dry with sunny spells and very light wind, 15 degrees.

Weather:  Dry

CESAREWITCH RATINGS – who is well-in?

A good starting point for these big handicaps is horses that come into a race ahead of the handicapper.

Well-in horses are: Surrey Belle (due to race off 6lb in future), Belgravian (6lb), Reverend Hubert (6lb), Beylerbeyi (5lb), Caprelo (3lb), Dawn Rising (2lb) and Fireblade (1lb).

Of the other Irish horses, this is the amount that are higher/same than their marks at home (so + is bad): Hipop De Loire (+1lb higher here), Bunting (same), Alphonse Le Grande (couldn’t find an Irish mark), Small Fry (same), Ndaawi (+1lb), Mordor (same), Seddon (same)., The Shunter (+1lb) and Winter Fog (+1lb).

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back)

3.15pm York: Secret Guest, Glenfinnan, Aberama Gold, Duran, Righthere Rightnow, It Just Takes Time, Zoulu Chief, Northern Spirit, Kodiac Thriller, Mister Sox, Manila Scouse

3.20pm Chepstow (not on ITV but there may have been someone betting on it): American Sniper, Tom Doniphon, Last Rodeo, Busy Being Busy, Lavender Hill Mob, The Nagger Reidy

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Richard Fahey cheekpieces; Mr Colonel, 1.50pm Newmarket; 47-381

Charlie Appleby cheekpieces; Saba Desert, 3pm Newmarket; 45-183

Ian Williams hood; Beylerbeyi, 3.40pm Newmarket; 3-41 (Flat)

Gordon Elliott cheekpieces; Ndaawi, 3.40pm Newmarket; 3-35 (Flat) & 54-401 (NH)

John McConnell hood; Seddon, 3.40pm Newmarket; 2-81 (Flat) and 3-28 (NH)

Stephen Thorne blinkers; Gleneagle Bay, 3.15pm York; 2-8

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; with draws attached) 

1.15pm Newmarket: Mister Rizz? (drawn 1), Liberty Lane? (2)

1.30pm York: Boston Dan (15), Comical Point (11), Dandy Style (1), Division (8), Flying Comet (7), Ali Shuffle (4), Azleet (5), Killavia (10)

1.50pm Newmarket: Allegresse (1), Look To The Stars (6)

2.05pm York: Grey Cuban (9), Champagne Prince (4), Two Brothers? (8), Ey Up It’s The Boss (12)

2.25pm Newmarket: New Zealand (4)

3pm Newmarket: Oxagon? (2), Italy? (4)

3.15pm York: Hammer The Hammer (8), Jordan Electrics (15), Gweedore (1), Bergerac (21), Sergeant Wilko (20), King’s Lynn (11), Eternal Sunshine (18)

3.40pm: Newmarket: Barnso (14), Dawn Rising (12), Seddon (17), Surrey Belle (19)

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed daily; all trainers with ITV runners)

Good:  John and Thady Gosden (very good), Aidan O’Brien (only fair in strike rate terms), Karl Burke,  Charlie Appleby, Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins (treble at Tramore), David Simcock, Stuart Williams, Geoffrey Harker (very small sample), John and Sean Quinn, Ralph Beckett

Fair: Tim Easterby, Eve Johnson Houghton, Michael Bell, Ed Walker, Andrew Balding (borderline good, as ever this season), Joseph O’Brien, William Haggas, Charlie Johnston, Peter Chapple-Hyam (small sample; one winner from four runners). Hugo Palmer, David O’Meara, Coyle and Wood, Michael Dods (double on Thursday), Jim Goldie (double on Thursday), David Menuisier, Dylan Cunha, Alan King, Harry Eustace, Emmet Mullins (winner at Tramore on Thursday), Simon and Ed Crisford, John McConnell (fair for him, borderline moderate), Hughie Morrison, Bryan Smart, Charlie Clover, Archie Watson, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Michael and David Easterby, Gemma Tutty, Ruth Carr, Ed Dunlop

Moderate: Adrian Keatley (though not many runners), Richard Fahey, Ian Williams, Tony Martin, Charles Byrnes, Rod Millman (even though last runner was a 9-2 winner), Daniel and Claire Kubler, Kevin Ryan, Katie Scott

Don’t know (small samples): Syd Hosie, David Pipe, T J Kent, Stephen Thorne