TONY CALVIN: COPY on all eight ITV races, with a Saturday morning betting update

SATURDAY MORNING GOING/WEATHER UPDATE

You can see in the updated stats/info section below that both Aintree and Sandown got away very lightly with the rain last night (just as well as I am not far from Sandown and one of my kitchen skylights sprung a leak on Friday).

Maybe we will get the odd shower now at Sandown, and about 3mm or so before and during racing at Aintree, but let’s see.

So not as testing as feared at both tracks – at the moment…

Ten NRs at Sandown so far, and two at Aintree (Wellington Arch in an ITV race), as at 8.53am.

There is something about that Sandown hurdles track which I find fascinating, watching horses stop to a walk within seconds, while others win without coming off the bridle (it’d be interesting if and when they did, mind you).

1.20pm Sandown – early Pertemps qualifier scene-setter

IMPORTANT: The race is down to seven runners after Absolutely Doyen came out at 7.05am on Saturday morning. So ditch those each-way bets.

We only lost one at the overnight stage for this Pertemps qualifier (well it was actually two, but one of those wasn’t qualified), so it’s a decent renewal of its kind, with five of the 10 last-time-out winners, and four of those relatively unexposed 4 and 5yos.

Supremely West is the interesting horse in here from an editorial point of view.

He was a real “eye-catcher” when third to Ma Shantou and Electric Mason in a qualifier at Cheltenham in October – the handicapper reacted by upping him 1lb for being beaten 5 ¼ lengths – and he was smashed up at the same track last month, only to massively underperform.

I think everyone knows why – Harry Skelton followed Gowel Road up the unfavoured inner – and indeed the officials actually asked the jockey why he took that route, the first time I have ever seen this in a stewards’ report.

The handicapper has predictably ignored the run, and it will be fascinating to see which way he goes in the market.

Ma Shantou may have disappointed next time but Electric Mason won the valuable staying handicap hurdle at Haydock next time.

Prices were very slow to come through for this race on Thursday, probably because it was a late addition to the ITV schedule, but the first price I saw about him was 6s (still available), with Ikarak the [9/2] favourite and Chasing Fire [11/2].

Ikarak is now a general 10s…

Green Book makes his return after colic and losing an eye

Green Book is the dangerous floater in here on his return from a very lengthy absence; indeed the last time we saw him he finished a close fourth in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March 2023.

It transpired that he has had a very rough time of it in the meantime, having had a colic operation and losing an eye.

The handicapper has played fair by dropping him 5lb for his absence and his troubles, and he is two from two at this track, winning the same February race here in 2022 and 2023.

Everyone is on Venetia watch, waiting for her runners to catch fire, and the rain is a positive, so this is another horse who could go one of two ways in the market.

Again, the first price I saw about him early on Thursday was 14s, though 28s quickly appeared, perhaps unsurprisingly do given the doubt (now 22s best).

NRs: Chasing Fire (1.39pm, going) and The Lord Maid (9.59am, not eaten up) are NRs on Friday, so we are down to just eight runners. There will be a significant Rule 4 on early bets, as they were around 6s and 7s chances.

Absolutely Doyen is also a NR as at 7.05am, taking the runners to just seven.

SATURDAY MORNING 8.15am BETTING UPDATE:

Turndlightsdownlow is the biggest mover in here, albeit to very limited money at this stage, as we always say. 

He had three options at the start of the week but he has shortened now he is here (of course there have been the nons) into 5/2. Everything else is weak bar 9/4 Kikijo.

1.50pm Sandown – Want to back Lulamba, or have the field running for you?

I think we have to accept that these novices’ chases are rarely going to provide each way 1,2,3 betting (or indeed 1,2), and we have just four in here for this 100k pot (we lost two at the overnight stage, Steel Ally and Sixmilebridge).

Lulamba has to be the starting point here as he is the classiest of the quartet, and he also gets a 6lb age allowance from his three rivals.

But is [4/6] short enough?

I’d tend to think it might be, as he was safe and efficient rather than impressive over his fences at Exeter on his chasing debut (low sun meant they missed a fair few out, too), and we all know how tricky Sandown can be for inexperienced horses.

And his three opponents are rated between 145 and 147 – Lulamba is on a mark of 153 – so I think I’d marginally prefer to have them on my side at [6/4] rather than the favourite at [4/6].

Mind you, that is a false statement, and that is a line I actually hate when others use it.

I doubt exchange punters will be able to lay him at [4/6] or lower, and I imagine you’ll have to go to [8/11] and bigger to lay him (Cloudflare have brought a number of sites down this morning, so I can’t check at the moment).

Mind you, he may shorten after Salver franked the Exeter form at Sandown on Friday.

I won’t be having an interest, but maybe Lump Sum at [9/2] would be my idea of the best bet if you asked me for one.

He is the selected of Sam Thomas’ pair of five-day entries – he also had Steel Ally in here, in the same ownership – and you couldn’t have asked much more from him on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter.

The 16-length runner-up Jax Junior won well at Kempton last time, and certainly the expected rain is not a negative.

But I personally won’t be playing at the current prices –  or probably future ones, too.

SATURDAY MORNING 8.15am BETTING UPDATE:

It is Lulamba first and the rest nowhere from a betting point of view.

Salver gave his Exeter win a sizeable boost yesterday and Lulamba is into [8/15] and [1/2], from [4/6] this time yesterday. Everything else has drifted, obviously.

2.05pm Aintree – Look out for the rain for a few in here

Obviously, we are dealing with a bit of a guessing game here in this juvenile hurdle, but the early market is dominated by Paul Nicholls’ wide-margin Ludlow winner Treasure Planet and Dan Skelton’s 86-rated Flat recruit from Ireland, Edelak.

Edelak’s last run in Ireland saw him win well over 1m4f at Galway in the summer, but the first-time blinkers he wore there are left off here.

I am not sure how well the worsening ground (see latest weather forecasts below) will suit a few of these – notably Lord, Scarlet Moon and Only One Blue – so maybe [4/1] poke Bibe Mus makes most appeal after his third to subsequent Grade 3 winner Mange Tout at Down Royal last month.

The stable could be in better form, though.

But I have no desire to force a bet at this stage.

SATURDAY MORNING 8.25am BETTING UPDATE:

Bibe Mus was [9/2] yesterday morning but he is into a general 2s now, with initial [6/4] favourite Treasure Planet out to 4s.

Hurdling debutant Ekelak is weak too, out to [7/2] from [5/2].

The outsiders have all been trimmed in, bar Only One Blue, who is a not-so-bonnie 33s.

2.25pm Sandown – 9/4 Knickerbocker for more glory, or his 20/1 stablemate?

BE AWARE – we are already down to eight, from 11, in here

Knickerbockerglory was a strange non-runner in the Greatwood Hurdle because of the (soft) ground, as testing conditions clearly suit him very well. And it will probably be heavy on the hurdles track by race-time.

Perhaps Dan Skelton was playing the waiting game with a view to this 50k handicap, a race in which he made all to beat Nemean Lion by 8 lengths on heavy ground last year.

But that race only ended up with just six runners, he had it all his own way in front and he is 6lb higher here despite being beaten in three subsequent starts.

Of course, you have to respect him – he won first time up in 2022, 2023 and 2024 – but maybe the general [9/4] gives him too much of a respectful nod to his chance in a deeper renewal, as tends to be the case with Skelton handicappers (he also runs Kateira and Honky Tonk Highway).

Mind you, they do tend to win…

His main market rival, the 4s chance Glynn Brae, clearly has a very likeable profile and he is one of the potential pace rivals to the favourite.

His proven ability over further will stand him in good stead here but he did go up 5lb for his neck win over 2m4f here last time, and the runner-up did nothing for the form next time.

But it seems that Toby McCain-Mitchell is good value for his 5lb claim and he keeps the ride here.

Is Saturday D-Day for Honky Tonk Highway ? Maybe not but you never know…

You can make cases for dual course winner Go Dante and Honky Tonk Highway, but you have to forgive them shockers last time, and obviously the more rain that falls the better for Metier.

In the final analysis, I didn’t land on a bet at the current prices, but a move for Honky Tonk Highway (in fact she has already shortened from 25s to 20s, but that probably took a score) would not surprise me if that Bangor run was a means to an end.

And maybe this is the end.

I suppose that doubt is why she is 20s. Is today the day?

The course and distance (made all to beat Hartington in a novices’ hurdle on this card last season) winner will relish the ground and she is well handicapped on her nose second to Derryhassen Paddy over 3m at Windsor, with Excello well beaten in third.

If this has been the plan – she had knee trouble last season, so that Bangor run could have been much-needed – then it would not surprise me if she goes very close off this mark.

But who knows ?

NR: Dance And Glance, who ranged between 4s and 5s, is a NR as at 2.37pm (going). There will be a 15-20p Rule 4 here.

Kateira is also out at 7.57am, as is Lucky One at 8.48am.

SATURDAY MORNING 8.30am BETTING UPDATE:

Glynn Brae has usurped Knickerbockerglory as favourite at the moment, being clipped into [2/1].

Last year’s winner is out to [11/4], from as low as [6/4] in places yesterday. 

Nibbles for Afadil into 6s.

2.40pm Aintree – Skelton has another major chance in here

Just the 17 shy of a maximum field of 30 in the Becher – a legacy of the plethora of staying chases this week – but not that easy to solve.

This promises to be a real grueller in the ground too, so we could be in for last man standing stuff.

He may be 1lb out of the handicap but Gaboriot possibly made the most appeal here each way at [13/2].

He ran a cracker when second here over 2m5f in the Grand Sefton last time – his second placing in that race – and he is effectively only 2lb higher here.

Furthermore, he handles testing ground well and more extreme tests of stamina than this, which will come in handy here over 3m2f in the conditions.

He has won up to 4m (albeit in Hunter Chase company) , so I can see the step up in distance suiting.

But, against that, there are plenty to fear, possibly chief among them fellow [13/2] poke Galia Des Liteaux. And obviously the popular Mr Vango, the [9/2] jolly.

SATURDAY MORNING 8.33am BETTING UPDATE:

It is 7s+ the field win-only here, and 6/1 fixed-odds, with each-way options to boot.

Excello at 7s is probably the most popular at the moment.

3pm Sandown – Libberty Hunter could outrun his odds – if standing up

I’m glad Harry Fry stuck Boothill in this race on Thursday morning (he was put in late) as it gives punters an each-way option.

I’m not going to give you an exhaustive analysis of this race, as it would be statin the bleedin’ obvious to say Il Etait Temps is the right favourite (currently 10/11 best) and fellow course winner L’Eau du Sud was deadly at Cheltenham on his return, but it wouldn’t surprise me if both were chinned.

Not that I can articulate that too well, granted.

Just a gut feel.

I certainly wouldn’t rule out Jonbon, smashed up by the above pair in his last two starts, bouncing back to win his third straight win in the race and the available 4s is a fair risk-to-reward for a horse who connections thought was undercooked on his Cheltenham return behind the Skelton horse.

They have put the cheekpieces on, something which Nicky Henderson doesn’t have a great record with (see the stat below).

I have half (maybe a quarter) an inking Libberty Hunter could hit the top two if getting round, and maybe a very unlikely win perhaps.

Sure, he is only rated 151 and the latest non-completions are a clear worry (even more so with his jumping likely to be tested at speed around these fences by Grade 1 horses) but I can’t get it out of my head how comfortably he was going when falling 3 out in the Champion Chase and I wouldn’t particularly like to lay him at 28s each way myself.

He will be ridden chilly again, and few, if any, are better equipped for the job in hand than Harry Cobden.

But it is hardly a strong opinion, or indeed lukewarm, in this grade.

Just an ill-educated hunch….

SATURDAY MORNING 8.35am BETTING UPDATE

A static Tingle Creek market, with [5/6] best about Il Etait Temps, 3s L’Eau du Sud, 4s Jonbon, 33s Libberty Hunter – and 125s Boothill if you are still pissed from last night/earlier this morning.

3.15pm Aintree – Rambo a decent each-way proposition at 11/2

Rambo T looks the solid each-way option at [11/2] in a place here.

He went up 6lb for a neck win in the valuable Silver Trophy at Chepstow in October and we haven’t seen him since, which I initially thought possibly hinted at a problem.

But the horse he beat narrowly at Chepstow has since dotted up in a couple of chases and, unlike some of these, the forecast rain shouldn’t be an issue, as he has won three times on soft.

The absence did worry me then, but I found an interview in which Olly Murphy made the following comments after that reappearance win.

He said: “He likes being very fresh and he surprised me when winning the Silver Trophy at Chepstow. He’s done what he needed to this season already, so everything else is just a bonus. He probably won’t run for another five weeks. We’ll look for a nice handicap for him somewhere. He likes intermediate trips. “

Yes, the [11/2] looks okay, if not scorching.

NR: Wellington Arch is a NR as at 7.38am. They’ll be a 20p Rule 4 here for Friday punters.

SATURDAY MORNING 8.38am BETTING UPDATE:

With Wellington Arch a significant non-runner this morning, nothing much doing here, with Act Of Authority and Rambo T vying for favouritism around the 4s mark,

3.35pm Sandown – 5/1 Brewster to cop the millions? Maybe

There was no surprise to see this race go from 14 to seven at the overnight stage, and it seems likely to be six with Jupiter Allen running at Exeter today (finished a 9-length second).

Another race in which I don’t have a strong betting opinion – at the moment – but perhaps Ask Brewster could be another to go well for the Evan Williams-Harry Cobden partnership (if indeed Libberty Hunter went well…).

He was the only one balloted out of the Coral Gold Cup, which must have smarted (that race was worth 250k and this one 50k), but at least this is obviously more winnable.

He gained his third Chepstow win, on quick ground, in October and he is clearly a progressive 6yo, from a stable in form too, but I’d want to see how the ground is looking at Sandown morning before backing him at 5s in a place.

He has won on soft ground and the chase course always rides better than the hurdles’ track (i imagine it will be good to soft unless they get more than expected), but his overall record is one that suggests soft going is probably not ideal.

And there are plenty of credible dangers in here, too. And you’d have to fear O’Connell in particular.

It’s an incredibly rare non-punting day for me (you have to be honest about these things), but good luck if you are getting involved.

SATURDAY MORNING 8.43am BETTING UPDATE:

Jupiter Allen, who finished second at Exeter yesterday, is still in the race at this stage. He is a 14s and 12s poke too, so they’ll be a 5p Rule 4 if and when he comes out.

And if/when he does, the bookmakers paying three places on this race will likely withdraw that enhancement (if you can get on), so play canny, each way punters, until we know about his running status.

UPDATE: He was taken out at 9.18am.

Rivers Corner is the biggest shortener into [11/4] and [5/2].

But it is a very lightly-traded market, no doubt, with not even 10k backed on Betfair.

Mind you, the Tingle Creek hasn’t even done 35k (70k matched), which tells you a story about the solidity and depth of these early markets.

They are very easy to shift.

 

SATURDAY’s ITV DETAILS 

SANDOWN

Going: Chase – Good to soft, soft in places (going stick 4.4, Saturday 8am); Hurdle: Soft, heavy in places (3.9, Saturday 8am)

Rails: Rails will generally be railed out for Friday, with a shared Home Bend, dropping in to fresh racing lines for Saturday and separate Home Bends. Distances to be confirmed.

Saturday morning course update: 5mm rain Monday. 6.6mm rain Tuesday evening. 1mm rain Wednesday evening. 5mm rain Thursday. 3.4mm rain Friday evening – dry overnight since 10pm. Showers possible during Saturday. Mild, breezy.

Weather (yr.no latest):  showers, if that

 

AINTREE

MILDMAY Course

Hurdle: Soft, good to soft in places

Chase: Soft, good to soft in places

NATIONAL Course

Chase: Soft

Going stick: 4.7 Hurdles; (was 4.9 hurdles Friday; 5.3 Wednesday); 4.3 Chase (was 4.5 Friday; was 4.8 Wednesday)- as of Saturday 8.45am

National course: 4.3, Saturday 9.45am (was 4.4, Friday 9.30am; was 4.8 Wednesday 12.15pm)

Rails: Mildmay Chase & Hurdle rails out 4yds. Hurdle 1 positioned as a cross flight, leaving two flights in the home straight.

• Race 1: Race distance is now +33y to 2m 1f 22y
• Race 2: Race distance is now +53y to 3m 202y
• Race 3: Race distance is now +39y to 2m 4f 19y
• Race 4: Race distance is now +39y to 2m 4f 19y
• Race 5: Race distance is now +33y to 2m 1f 22y
• Race 7: Race distance is now +41y to 2m 4f 41y

Saturday morning course update: 1.2mm rain last Sat, 3.2mm Sun, 8.4mm Mon, dry Tues & Wed, 9.8mm Thursday, 4.2mm Friday, 0.4mm so far Saturday. Forecast: Breezy with showers on and off through the day on Saturday; some sunny spells in between (1-3mm).

Weather (yr.no latest):   6.3mm through Saturday (maybe 3-4mm of that after racing).

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STAT

 

Nicky Henderson cheekpieces; Jonbon, 3pm Sandown; 24-139 (17pc; -32 points at SP)

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

1.20pm Sandown: Green Book, Kikijo (prominent), Ikarak (prom), Lavender Hill Mob, Turndlightsdownlow

1.50pm Sandown:  Alnilam, Be Aware (prom)

2.05pm Aintree (limited evidence to go on) : Lord, Scarlet Moon, Only One Blue, Treasure Planet (prom)

2.25pm Sandown:  Knickerbockerglory, Goshen?, Glynn Brae, Honky Tonk Highway

2.40pm Aintree:  Mr Vango, Biolumininescence, Monbeg Genius, Bill Baxter?, Galia Des Liteaux?, Mahons Glory, Val Dancer

3pm Sandown: Jonbon

3.15pm Aintree: Rambo T?, Stream Of Stars, Rubber Ball, Bear Market?

3.35pm Sandown: Tanganyika, Ask Brewster, Invincible Nao, Rivers Corner

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

 

Good: Tom Lacey (another 5-1 winner on Thursday), Hobbs and White, Martin Keighley, Nicky Henderson, Evan Williams, Parkinson and Smith, Donald McCain, Warren Greatrex (double on Thursday), Joe Tizzard (12-1 winner on Thursday and another on Friday), Gary and Josh Moore (treble at Sandown on Friday; and the Esher opener on Saturday), Sam Thomas (another double already on Saturday)

Fair: Dan Skelton, Olly Murphy, Venetia Williams (probably moderate but two recent winners), James Owen, Paul Nicholls (double at Sandown on Friday), Harry Fry, Willie Mullins (moderate for him), Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Anthony Honeyball, Archie Watson, Ben Pauling (Saturday double before midday), Ewan Whillans (no winners), Christian Williams

Moderate: Robert Walford (very welcome 7-2 winner at Exeter on Friday), Ross O’Sullivan (despite a recent 4-1 winner), Greenall and Guerriero, Gavin Cromwell (33-1 winner in an academy hurdle at Navan on Saturday morning, so not a proper race as such…), Dylan Cunha (though a few seconds, so maybe harsh), Mel Rowley (6-4 winner in a three-runner race on Thursday)

Don’t know: Chester Williams (but one winner and a second from three recent runners), Sophie Leech, Max Comley, Sara Bradstock, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Patrick Griffin, Neil King (one 4-9 winner from three runners)