TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s 10 ITV races analysed

1pm Kelso – Top two could have this race sealed off

When I agree with the top of the market, I tend to walk away – and that is the case here.

I’ll be surprised if anything other than Hollygrove Cha Cha and World Of Fortunes win this, but the market is telling you that at [13/8] and 3s, tops, respectively.

The 2s about Hollygrove Cha Cha was taken on Friday.

I suppose you can make a case for a few of these each-way but they may only be playing for a place return.

Let’s move on.

By the way, Kelso’s watering on Thursday (see below) turned the ground to good to soft, soft in places, from good to soft.

Oh, and expect omitted obstacles because of the low sun. 

1.15pm Newbury – May not be as simple as prices suggest for Evens Kocktail Bleu

This may not be as simple for Kocktail Bleu as quotes of evens suggest, for all he is the top dog on form and on the clock.

And that evens will be coming under pressure soon.

Lisbane Park isn’t far off him ability-wise and Gambino is dangerous on his hurdling debut for Dan Skelton, having shown winning ability in two starts for Noel Meade on the Flat and when third in Constitution Hill’s race at Southwell.

But this is a dangerous dead-eight for each-way backers, who are probably also looking at course winner Cecilia Star, who gets 17lb from the two form horses.

One non-runner could scupper the best-laid plans, though.

1.30pm Kelso – 9/1 Jeri built for this challenge

Quite clearly, this is a hugely competitive handicap – though there are now only 14 runners, as with the 3pm at Newbury, so double check the place terms you are betting at – but Jericoacoara has a fair bit going for him, even if the stable could do with a winner.

Micky Hammond has had plenty placed though and this horse was one of those at Ayr last time when third to Eloi Du Puy after 100 days off the track.

He has been dropped 1lb for that promising run under today’s 5lb claimer and it is reasonable to assume he will be strip straighter here.

He has come down 13lb in the weights after joining Hammond from France in late 2024, and the Ayr run was the most promising for him yet. The 9s each way is fair.

Captain Butler and Baratablet have been the two for early money, though original favourite Brookside La came out with a bruised foot at 7.19pm on Friday night.

1.50pm Newbury – 14/1 Diamond could dazzle

Grand Vendetta is a NR as at 8.18am (going).

I won’t keep you long here, as I don’t have a betting opinion.

I can see the case for all of the market leaders – Thewoodcorner chief among them at [9/2] – but maybe Diamond Koda is a touch overpriced at 14s (the 16s was taken on Friday) considering his wide-margin win at Doncaster last time, his trainer reporting that he scoped dirty when disappointing on his previous outing.

Sure, he went up 8lb for that 12-length win and he is into a deeper race, but he may have been slightly underdone in the betting here.

But this is very marginal stuff in a tight race, and I am not getting involved.

2.10pm Kelso – Khrisma may have come early for brave 5/4 backers

Changemyuck is a NR as at 8.57am (abscess), so this race is down to 15 and changed each-way terms.

Now, you won’t be catching me backing [5/4] shots in 15-runner handicaps – but you also won’t be catching me laying Khrisma here, either.

I strongly suspect a mark of 128 seriously underplays her talent after that Market Rasen win last time (form I expect to be franked at Newbury later on in the afternoon) and, having missed Cheltenham last week (she was balloted out of the County Hurdle), she is fancied to outclass and take care of these.

Stablemate could be the biggest danger

Her stablemate Diamonds Galore could give her most to do after a narrow, and perhaps unlucky, defeat at Ludlow last time. It looks like decent ground suits her well, so hopefully Kelso’s Thursday watering has not blunted her place claims.

The 12s, five places, looks fair for a lightly-raced mare with more to give – the general 14s was taken on Friday, though she is that price win-only – but I imagine she may have to play second fiddle to Khrisma.

She could be one to look at in the “Without Favourite” markets when they are all up and running.

2.25pm Newbury – Money for 7/1 Hercule easy to solve

Just the seven here now as Authorised Speed is a NR as at 8.22am (going).

Hercule Du Seuil was 33s for this race at the start of the week and he has been cut since the final field has been known into a general 7s, so it could be that the ship has well and truly sailed, price-wise.

It probably has.

There is 8s available about him win-only.

You can see why he has tumbled in price (though it would have taken buttons to do so), having shaped a lot, lot better than the bare form suggested on his first start for Neil Mulholland at Doncaster (having left Willie Mullins, but stayed in the care of JP McManus) over 2m last month.

He got dropped 3lb to a mark of 147 after that run and he is handicapped to go very well on his Graded form for Mullins, as well as the step back up in trip being no hardship given one of his better efforts was a Grade 3 win over 2m4f just five outings ago last summer.

This looks a very winnable handicap.

2.40pm Kelso – 10/1 Joe could be cooking on gas here

I don’t have a strong opinion here but Joecooker has his chance off a falling handicap mark in first-time cheekpieces.

You can easily forgive him his run in heavy ground last time, especially as he was dropped a generous 3lb for it, and he is now on his lowest ever mark over fences or hurdles.

A reproduction of his Wetherby second to Genois on Boxing Day – the winner is now rated 8lb higher after winning since – makes the 10s about him look very fair, win and place.

He did look like some headgear could have helped him there, too (traded 1.23 in running).

3pm Newbury – It could be Cheltenham Déjà vu with Skelton’s Getawhisky

Newbury put on another 5mm on Friday night.

There are now just 15 runners in this handicap, with Sevarana out.

Traditional each-way 1,2,3 terms now apply with some firms, on-course books, Tote bets and Betfair EW markets (which haven’t been loaded yet, so they’ll be 1,2,3, too).

It could be Dan Skelton Cheltenham Festival handicap Déjà Vu at Newbury on Saturday, with Getawhisky already backed into [7/2] from 5s, with [10/3] and 3s the general prices, in the valuable 33k-to-the-winner 2m4f novices’ handicap hurdle at 3pm.

As with Supremely West and Madara last week, you can 100pc see it, even if the price immediately strikes you as far too skinny.

But is it?

To put it bluntly, Getawhisky has been given the now-familiar slowly, slowly, catchee monkey Skelton prep for a valuable handicap (as unpalatable as some find it) and you probably should be ensuring you don’t lose on the race if she wins, even if it is a mere small cover stake after looking elsewhere.

Or maybe just leave the race alone if you think she is too short now.

Getawhisky was a very fair bumper winner, and let’s take you through her four hurdle runs to date.

She attracted the attention of the stewards at Worcester on her hurdling debut in October (very lengthy stewards note and the explanations were noted) before overjumping and falling three out when in the lead in a three-runner race at Ascot in November (traded at 2.24 before coming down).

She then went on to win a very decent pot when well backed at Windsor in January (copped nearly 20k for winning) but she was weak in the market when putting in another eye-catching fourth at Market Rasen last time.

It reminded me of Langer Dan’s fourth at the same track in 2021 before winning the Imperial Cup by 4 ½ lengths on his next start.

That run last time came in a very strong novices’ hurdle, won by Khrisma from Charisma Cat and Watamu (the placed horses are also in here and have decent chances in their own right) in a good time, so I was a touch surprised the handicapper dropped her 1lb for it.

After all, they can’t have failed to see how well she shaped there from off the pace. And the sixth, Edith Pelham (also in here) won next time up, too.

With the step up to 2m4f sure to suit on pedigree and run-style (well not sure but highly likely) , this half-sister to very good horses like One For Rosie and Air Horse One perhaps has an irresistible claim here.

Those two were rated 149 and 150 respectively at their peak, and their little sis races off just 119 here.

It’s just a matter of whether Getawhisky has now hit her basement price at [7/2].

Maybe, maybe not (currently 6.2 as at 9pm).

An outsider with place claims – Pismo Beach at 20s, each way

I can see the case for Pismo Beach at 20s, each way, further down the betting.

You can reasonably forgive her a disappointing display on soft ground at Ludlow last month – she has no form on that surface  – and she is handicapped to play a role on her fourth to Nurse Susan at Cheltenham three starts ago.

She effectively ran off 115 there (she was 7lb out of the handicap and was only beaten 7 lengths), so she is weighted to go well off 110 here.

I have never heard of claimer Murray Dodd before (my bad, I am sure) but he rode her in that Cheltenham race and, while he may not be the finished article, he claims 7lb for a reason and that could be a valuable lessening of the weight burden here.

Dodd had a winner with Bollin Matilda at Musselburgh on Friday, and Stuart Edmunds followed suit with Kosasiempre at Newbury not soon after.

She is 5lb higher than when a 3 1/4 length third in this race last season, but that turned out to be pretty strong form and she was unlucky not to finish a lot closer there, anyway.

If you can get the 20s, four places (she is 16s, five places), then you will probably strike worse bets this weekend.

3.20pm Bangor – This race is down to seven runners

This race is down to seven runners with Nowmelad out (unfortunately he took a fatal fall at Newbury on Friday), so it now makes precious little appeal.

And it didn’t make much before that.

In The Age has been backed into favouritism and you can see that move after his second at Uttoxeter last time, though he did go up 3lb for that 2 3/4 length defeat and the winner got humped next time.

The return to better ground is a positive for him, though.

Static is right up his arse in the betting at 10/3 and, in truth, you can make a case for any of the seven.

3.35pm Newbury – Pull up stumps before the Bumper baby (think I used that header at Cheltenham)

A 20-runner bumper – this is all yours.

In fact, it is a very low-key ITV card in the main.

 

SATURDAY’s COURSE DETAILS

NEWBURY  

GOING – Hurdle: Good to soft, good in places; Chase: Good to soft, good in places

GOING STICK – Hurdles: 4.2;  Chase: 4.4 (Saturday 6am)

Rails: Plenty of fresh ground from yesterday on all bends, hurdle and chase lines. Hurdles: centre (back straight) & outside (home straight). Chase: outside (full width yesterday).

Saturday morning course update: Sunny yesterday (14C). Forecast: Sunny (little/ no breeze) & 14C.

WEATHER (yr.no latest, 7.30am Saturday):  Dry and sunny 12 degrees

WATERING: Between 4-16mm selective watering applied Tuesday – Thursday. Note – chase course received more irrigation.

Selectively watered 5mm yesterday after racing.

 

KELSO

Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture

GOING: Good to soft

Entire course vertidrained

GOING STICK:  5,1, Saturday 11.15am

Saturday morning course update:  Sunny. Sat 21st: RACEDAY 16c overcast with sunny spells

WEATHER (yr.no latest, 7.30am Saturday); Dry and sunny, 15 degrees

WATERING: 6-7mm of water was applied to the entire track on Thursday.

 

 

BANGOR

GOING – Chase: Good to soft, good in places; Hurdles: Good, good to soft in places

GOING STICK – Chase: 4.5; Hurdle: 5.o, Saturday 7am

Rails: All chase bends in 2yrds since last meeting. All hurdle bends in the same position as last meeting, except the bend into the home straight which is out 2yrds.

Saturday morning course update: 26mm rain in the week leading up to entries. It has been dry from Monday onwards. Foggy first thing which will lift to leave a sunny and dry day. Maximum temperature 16 °C

WEATHER (yr.no latest, 7.30am Saturday):  Dry and sunny, 14 degrees

 

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back on these – 23 horses)

1.30pm Kelso: Killycarn, Forest Blaze, Ryebridge, Fourofakind, El Jefe, Rememberthename,  Parish Quiz, Scairp Dubh, Drop Kick, So Many Roads, Maillot Blanc, Cher Tara, Wise Move, Better Be Definite, Aquitaine Boy

2.10pm Kelso: Just An Artist, AJ’s Diamond, Hunter’s Spring, Lyrical Choice, Eastern Shores, Roarin’ Success, Tuppence, Yasmina, Annie’s Angel

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Rebecca Menzies visor; Kingston Narcissus, 1.30pm Kelso; 4-59 since 2015

Rebecca Menzies cheekpieces; Joecooker and Always A Reason, 2.40pm Kelso; 8-82 since 2016

Russell and Scudamore cheekpieces; Mountain Molly, 1.30pm Kelso; 1-7

Sam England blinkers; Defence Witness, 2.40pm Kelso; 1-7 since 2017

Fergal O’Brien cheekpieces; Edith Pelham, 3pm Newbury; 12-77 since 12016

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed) and NRs

1pm Kelso: Hollygrove Cha Cha, Listentoyourheart (prom), Pitwood Road (prom), Sunset Marquesa (prom)

1.15pm Newbury: Lisbane Park, Kocktail Bleu, King Berry, Noble Don

1.30pm Kelso: Judicial Deference,  Eloi Du Puy, The Navigator, Mountain Molly – Thank You Blue is a NR as at 9.26am Friday (not eaten up) – changes traditional each-way terms of race. Favourite Brookside La is a NR as at 7.19pm (bruised foot).

1.50pm Newbury: Storming George, Fresh Perspective – Grand Vendetta is a NR as at 8.18am (going)

2.10pm Kelso: Beauty In The Park, Diamonds Galore, First Candidate, Our Peggy, Klassy Pearl?, Riviera Walk, Gintime?, Crystal Days? – Changemyluck is a NR

2.25pm Newbury: Twinjets (easy lead now) Authorised Speed is out)-  Authorised Speed is a NR as at 8.22am (going)

2.40pm Kelso: Diamond Dealer, Glen Road, Moon Phases (prom), Sleeping Satellite, Bridge Court (prom)

3pm Newbury: Betty’s Daisy, Strong Run (prom), Edith Pelham?, Fresh As A Daisy, Trinity Street, Queenofthejukebox, Ballynorth – Severana is a NR as at 11.02am Friday (lame) – changes traditional each-way terms of race

3.20pm Bangor: Knickerbockerglory, The Four Sixes, Magistrato, Static, Nowmelad – Nowmelad took a crashing fall at Newbury on Friday and unfortunately that was fatal – this race will now be just seven runners

3.35pm Newbury (limited evidence): Way Maker, Keltype

 

TRAINERFORM (all with runners in the ITV races – manually assessed)

Good: Susan Corbett (tiny sample obviously but one 11-1 winner and two seconds, at 15-2 and 6-1, from four runners), Nick Scholfield, Adrian Keatley (another winner on Friday), Neil King, James Owen (winner on Friday), Alan King, Rebecca Curtis, Harry Derham (double on Friday), David Pipe, Ben Pauling (another winner on Thursday), Harry Fry, Nicky Henderson, Richard Bandey, Toby Bulgin (tiny sample obviously but one 13-2 winner and one third from two runners), Robert Walford, Nicky Richards, Russell and Scudamore, Tom Gretton (small sample), Tom Ellis (winner on Thursday)

Fair: Dan Skelton (winner on Friday), Olly Murphy, Donald McCain (winner on Friday), Rebecca Menzies (winners on Thursday and Friday – fair/good), Greenall/Guerriero (fair/good), Philip Kirby (fair/good), Nick Alexander, Lizzie Quinlan (small sample), Mark Walford, Paul Nicholls (winner on Thursday), Clive Boultbee-Brooks, Chris Gordon, Fergal O’Brien, Andy Irvine, Sam England (winner on Friday), Jamie Snowden, Ruth Jefferson, Jane Williams, Gary and Josh Moore (winner on Thursday), Lucy Wadham, Emma Lavelle (winner on Friday), Chester Williams, Stuart Edmunds (winner on Friday), Anthony Honeyball, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (11-1 winner on Thursday), Max Comley, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Killahena and McPherson, Neil Mulholland (winner on Friday), Parkinson and Smith (winner on Thursday), Adam Nicol (an 11-2 winner on Friday suggests he is going well enough)

Moderate: Joe Tizzard (despite two recent winners), Micky Hammond (maybe harsh as he has had plenty placed), Sandy Thomson (11-2 winner on Friday though), Henry Daly, Seamus Mullins. Mickey Bowen (has had a couple of seconds), Hughie Morrison (couple placed), D J Jeffreys, Hobbs and White (form has tailed off a touch of late)

Don’t know: Deborah Cole, Dianne Sayer, Andrew Hamilton, Stuart Coltherd, Henry Oliver, Tom Symonds (not great though), Noel Williams, Padraig Roche (Cheltenham Festival winner), J W Kenny, Claire Dyson, Nick Kent