By Tony Calvin - 1 December 2025
The forecasts have improved overnight so perhaps Sandown and Aintree will not be as testing as feared on Monday.
Maybe we will see Jonbon at Sandown, then. Hopefully, we will. It sounds as if he is Esher-bound, as of Tuesday afternoon.
But, of course, forecasts can change quickly.
Hang on – Aintree’s literally has just got far worse again….see below. Wednesday is dry but the current forecast rain from Thursday onwards could turn the ground borderline soft/heavy.
Details are below but Sandown only got 5mm on Monday and Aintree 8.4mm, the latter far less than expected.
Going stick readings have been updated at Sandown today (details below) but Aintree have not given any for this meeting yet as 2.22pm on Tuesday.
I have never seen a messier Saturday ante-post picture than this weekend’s action, from a double entry (I am always torn whether to hyphenate that) point of view.
Or indeed a more depressing one from a maximum-field versus five-day entries perspective (see below).
If I were a bookmaker, I’d be tempted to not price up any of the seven ITV races on Saturday.
And plenty haven’t bothered with most races.
The 3.35pm at Sandown is something else – 12 of the 14 could go elsewhere this week.
And that is betting without if the O’Neills’ stable will still be coming out of three-week hibernation then (they are due to have their first runner for a long while on Tuesday, which may guide their plans thereafter – it was 100/1 and was pulled up).
It really is not very clever to have the 3m4f+ London National at Sandown on the same weekend as the 2m7f+ Welsh National trial at Chepstow, the 3m2f Becher at Aintree, and the 4m Scottish Borders National at Kelso on Sunday, is it?
And, let’s not forget, a 3m handicap chase at Sandown on Friday, as well as a 3m6f race at Exeter on the same day, to boot.
Mind you, I am sure I wrote that assessment last year, and we do have a massive horse population to service these extreme staying races, after all…..
It is absolute madness.
Madness, I say (sounded a bit like Fred Elliott there).
And these kind of ridiculous clashes won’t be addressed until 2027 at the earliest, when hopefully “racing” – ie the racecourses – comes together to agree a significant reduction in fixtures.
As of 6.43am on Monday morning, there were nine in Sandown’s Tingle Creek, in which Il Etait Temps was the [11/10] favourite, with 3s L’Eau du Sud, [7/2] Jonbon , 12s Only By Night and 20s bar.
The other weekend early-closer is the Becher, which had 35 entries before Monday’s noon confirmation stage. It was 8s the field (Johnnywho and Mr Vango) if you shopped around – 12 had been confirmed by 10am.
It was 19 at midday, but no Johnnywho (the O’Neills have effectively shut up shop for the foreseeable, which is why is it surprising the stable’s Monbeg Genius and Iron Bridge were confirmed).
As you can see below, a very wet week is in store, so you’d do well to be working on the assumption of soft minimum at both tracks on Saturday (though the forecasts have improved a touch overnight into Tuesday)
Double entries will follow later this afternoon.
All bar Gidleigh Park, Solness and Only By Night have been confirmed for this race.
Thankfully, so.
All possibles are needed in Esher on Saturday.
Il Etait Temps went up to a mark of 169 after his 5 1/2-length defeat of Jonbon in the Celebration Chase here in April, and he is the [11/10] favourite in here.
Backers at that price would probably like to see the Willie Mullins stable rolling a bit better than they are of late but the 7yo’s form has taken off since an Arkle third in 2024 and he cemented that progress with a win at Clonmel on his return.
L’Eau de Sud handed Jonbon his arse, and then some, to the tune of 15 lengths in the Shloer on his return, after which the handicapper upped him 8lb to a mark of 163. He will relish the forecast rain and won the Henry VIII here at this meeting last year, his sole start at this track.
The 9yo Jonbon would be going for a third straight win in this race but he needs to step up on his last two outings to achieve that.
I strongly suspect he will, but today he has also been put in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Sunday, which has seen him drift to 9/2.
And, for what it is worth, Nico de Boinville is already jocked up there, and the bookmakers who have priced that race up (quite why I don’t know) make him between an evens and [7/4] poke for that.
And, as I also tend to say, beware trainers with immediate options when betting ante-post.
If you are backing Only By Night at 12s, you’ll be hoping her trainer Gavin Cromwell snaps a very poor run of form by the weekend.
Remarkably, this horse’s win at Naas last month was Cromwell’s only National Hunt success from 110 runners in November.
That is rank, though surely it has to turn soon.
Only By Night had yet to be confirmed for this race at 10am though, along with Gidleigh Park and Solness (and none of those trio were subsequently kept in the race, anyway).
The old man of the party Edwardstone is 11 going on 12 now and it is fair to say he is on a downward spiral, and a shadow of the horse that won this race by 9 lengths in 2022.
He is also in at Huntingdon on Sunday.
Fellow oldie, the 10yo Boothill, has also shown nothing in his last two starts.
Libberty Hunter is the only other of the nine to have been confirmed as of 9.30am, and he looks likely to have his ground. We can expect improvement from him – if he finishes with his rider on board.
I wouldn’t like to lay him at 25s each way, two places.
No way.
Or maybe indeed L’Eau du Sud each way at [5/2], too…
I personally would bet win-only on the race at this stage, if at all.
As at midday on Monday, the above six have stood their ground.
Mind you, there are only five in the Hilly Way at Cork on Sunday – it’s a good job the UK’s trainers don’t tend to travel….
Chase: Good to soft, good in places (going stick 5.0 on Thursday 8am); Hurdle: Soft, good to soft in places (4.2, Thursday 8am)
Rails: Rails will generally be railed out for Friday, with a shared Home Bend, dropping in to fresh racing lines for Saturday and separate Home Bends. Distances to be confirmed.
Thursday morning course update: 5mm rain Monday. 6.6mm rain Tuesday evening. 1mm rain Wednesday evening. Rain Thursday morning from 7am to about 11am – 3-5mm expected. Dry then for rest of Thursday with a cold night and grass frost Friday morning. 10 degrees Friday. Dry until rain from the west from 3/4pm and through Friday evening – 5 to 10mm potential. Clearing to possible showers during Saturday.
Weather (yr.no latest): showers Thursday; 9.4mm Friday, 1.2mm Saturday
MILDMAY Course
Hurdle: Good to soft
Chase: Good to soft
NATIONAL Course
Chase: Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick: 5.3 hurdles; 4.8 chase and National course (Wednesday 11.15am)
Thursday morning course update: 6.8mm rain Fri, 1.2mm Sat, 3.2mm Sun, 8.4mm Mon, dry Tues & Wed, 0.6mm so far Thurs. Forecast: Rain on and off through Thursday (5-10mm). Rain Friday afternoon and evening, continuing overnight into Saturday (4-8mm). Showers on and off through the day on Saturday (2-5mm).
Weather (yr.no latest): 12mm Thursday; 6.3mm Friday; 6.8mm Saturday
1.20pm Sandown (11 entries for a maximum field of 18): Turnlightsdownlow, Road Senam
1.50pm Sandown (just 6 entries for a maximum field of 18): NONE (though it sounds like Steel Ally won’t run, so maybe hold fire there)
2.05pm Aintree (just 8 entries for a maximum field of 20): Kaldoun Des Rocs (due to run at Sandown on Friday)
2.25pm Sandown (just 15 entries for a maximum field of 22): Glynn Brae, Honky Tonk Highway, L’Astroboy, Live Conti, Stream Of Stars (NOTE: Royal Way was a NR at Plumpton on Monday due to “going”, which was soft).
2.40pm Aintree (just 19 entries for a maximum field of 30): Tanganyika, Galia Des Liteaux, Mahons Glory, Excello, Val Dancer
3pm Sandown (just 6 entries for a maximum field of 20): Edwardstone, Jonbon
3.15pm Aintree (just 14 entries for a maximum field of 22): Cracking Rhapsody, Glynn Brae, Honky Tonk Highway, Live Conti, Rubber Ball, Stream Of Stars, Sunray Shadows, Turnlightsdownlow
3.35pm Sandown (just 14 entries for a maximum field of 20) : Aworkinprogress, Collectors Item, Excello, Galia Des Liteaux, Hung Jury, Jubilee Express, Jupiter Allen (due to run at Exeter on Friday), Rivers Corner, Stay Away Fay, Tanganyika
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