By Tony Calvin - 15 December 2025
This race is a bit of a mess at the moment.
Blueking d’Oroux, Butch, Deep Cave, Issam, Knappers Hill and Leave Of Absence could go elsewhere in this 2m5f Graduation Chase, and Jeriko Du Reponet just ran in a match at Wincanton today (Tuesday) and finished a deliberate second. He surely won’t be out again on Saturday.
So in my book that immediately whittles this race down from 11 to four from an ante-post betting perspective: the Irish trio of Firefox and Deep Capo (for Gordon Elliott) and James Du Berlais (Willie Mullins) and Iroko.
Who knows what will come over from Ireland (Elliott’s pair are in early-closers over Christmas) so that leaves us with Iroko.
Whether they will risk winning with him before the Aintree weights are out in February is another matter – it is ridiculous that this is a widely-expressed view every time he runs – but the handicapper actually gave him a helping hand by dropping him 1lb for a rather promising second to The Jukebox Man on his return at Haydock.
That was a touch odd.
And, for information sake, he is also in a Cheltenham handicap on New Year’s Day.
I couldn’t back him at [5/2] myself, or indeed Firefox (three current entries from Dec 26-28), or 3s poke James Du Berlais after that run in the John Durkan.
Mind you, the latter, a well-beaten third of four in this race last year – Iroko fell – at least has the cleanest slate from an “other options” perspective.
I was surprised to see Dee Capo priced up at 20s but maybe those layers know more than me about his running plans (has two options over Christmas and on New Year’s Day).
That wouldn’t be hard, granted.
In short, I can fully see why a lot of bookmakers have declined to price this up.
Do keep an eye on that changing rain forecast at Ascot.
I’d be working on the basis of heavy ground and then some at Haydock, and it wouldn’t surprise me if an inspection was called if they get the forecast rain on Wednesday and Thursday (see below).
At least only one of the 17 in here has an alternative option this week (Nambiti, who ranges from 9s to 20s) but Minella Blueway, My Silver Lining, O’Toole, Saladins Son and Top Of The Bill are in the Welsh National on Dec 27, and Velvet Elvis is in at Leopardstown on the same day.
Something to consider perhaps.
Looking at the market (s), it’s not a race that particularly appeals at this stage – one outfit is again hardly rolling out the red carpet for punters, with eight horses priced between [7/2] and 9s, with joint-favourites to boot – but slop merchants like last year’s runner-up Jacks Parrot (best at 5s) and My Silver Lining (best at 9s) will be in their element here.
Hold That Taught didn’t take up a Thursday engagement and he would possibly appeal most at 25s – he loves it hock-deep and the handicapper has given him a chance off 120, but he has been running badly.
Thirteen five-day entries for the Howden Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle – none of the Baker’s Dozen hold immediate options – with Honesty Policy and Impose Toi, in the same ownership, 3s joint-favourites if you shop around.
If you are forced to shop in the worst place, you will only be getting [9/4] and [5/2]….
I imagine Honesty Policy being clipped in from the briefly-available 6s and 4s on Monday was down to about a score (even high-profile races and Cheltenham Festival markets will see marked moves for precious little money) and the comments from JP McManus’ racing manager Frank Berry in the Irish press that he was currently an intended runner.
I am a big fan of the progressive Impose Toi myself but I can see ownermate and market rival Honesty Policy being a huge threat if he does rock up.
I wouldn’t be inclined to look outside of that pair for the likely winner here, but it makes sense to wait and see what JP and his team decide to do (Colonel Mustard and Honesty Policy are in an early-closer on Dec 28).
And the Thursday weather, too.
The course probably did well to get 10 entries for this 45k mares’ novice hurdle and only one (Walks The Talk, who ranges from [7/2] to 6s) could go elsewhere. The John McConnell 6yo is also in at Uttoxeter on Friday and Thurles on Saturday.
Conditions could be brutal for these youngsters, so no delicate flowers need apply on Saturday.
Let’s see which of these gets the go-head if 26mm more of rain lands.
Deep Cave, Knappers Hill and Leave Of Absence are doubly-entered, and Hyland is in the Welsh National.
It’ll be interesting to see if top weight Ga Law runs here. He was taken out because of the going at Cheltenham last weekend, and that was on his favoured good to soft ground (Timeform called it good, which would have suited him even better).
I can see the case for all of Ben Pauling’s three in here (but will he run them all?) and you can also make a fair argument for Goshen – no laughing at the back, please – at 40s.
He is ground-versatile, he is down to a mark of 135 now, and his 3m chase form around here and Sandown last season gives him far better claims than 40s in a few places suggest.
He is already 2lb lower than a neck and 1/2-length third to Hoe Joly Smoke at Sandown just three starts ago.
And that handicap hurdle run over an inadequate (inadequate these days, anyway) 2m at Sandown recently was surely a tee-up job for something like this, however tame that effort was (and how moody he can be).
Caoilin Quinn is jocked up, for what that is worth (often misleading), and the stable are going very well.
No, you wouldn’t catch me laying the 40s that he is currently trading at in four spots – not that his profile screams shortener, clearly.
I can’t believe he is only a 9yo; he seems to have been around for yonks.
I couldn’t access the 40s online, so I took a rare trip to a betting shop and availed myself of a whopping £15 each way at 40s.
I am increasingly asking myself why I bother…
It is 10s bar three in here, and I like the trio at the top of the market, so this is a no-go from me at this stage.
The three are [10/3] Mondo Man, 4s Alexei and [11/2] Wilful, by the way.
We have two early-closers at Ascot on Saturday.
There were 26 in the 100k 3m handicap chase (3pm) on Monday morning, and 28 in the 125k 1m7f157yd handicap hurdle (3.35pm).
There are now 15 and 16 respectively confirmed for the above races.
Blow Your Wad is the early jolly at 4s in the handicap chase, with Mondo Man and Alexei available (to some) the same price in the handicap hurdle.
The Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (2,25pm) has a five-day entry stage, which is sensible to maximise numbers (13 have been entered, including the race’s hat-trick seeking Crambo).
The first firm up made Impose Toi the [5/2] favourite, with their 6s Honesty Policy, ownermate of the favourite, soon cut to 4s.
And he now ranges from [5/2] to [3/1], as does Impose Toi.
I hear Gordon Elliott’s stable is going reasonably well in Ireland at the moment, and Frank Berry, racing manager to JP McManus, reported on Irishracing.com on Monday that Elliott’s horse is an intended runner.
The opening 12s Crambo was quickly cut into 8s, too.
One of the next outfits up went the following prices about the first five in the market: 5/2, 5/2, 7/2, 4s and 7s.
Embarrassing.
There is plenty of rain about at both ITV courses up to Thursday, and again on Saturday, (see below). Haydock have already copped a hatful today (Monday).
They are now soft, heavy in places, after today’s rain (23mm).
And, as of Tuesday morning, they could get another 26mm in the next 48 hours or so.
On Monday, Ascot was forecast to get 27mm on Thursday, but that has been downgraded to 23mm and then to a current 13mm.
Keep an eye on that, though.
Current double entries are below. I’ll have a look to see what Thurles brings on Tuesday afternoon.
GOING: Good
Going Stick: Chase Course: 4.9, Hurdle: 4.6. Soil Moisture 37% (8.30am Wednesday)
Wednesday morning course update: 1.2mm rain recorded over the past 24 hours to 8am Wednesday. 2mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. A damp cold misty morning today. Showers/rain currently forecast for tonight and through Thursday to Friday morning. It is expected to be generally dry now for Friday and Saturday. 9 to 12mm rain estimated from now to Friday morning. For access to our live weather station and for the latest going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather (yr.no latest): 11mm Thursday; dry thereafter
GOING: Soft
Going Stick: 5.2, Thursday 7am (was 4.7, Tuesday midday)
Thursday morning course update: 8mm Sunday. 23mm Monday. Dry Tuesday. 5mm Wednesday. Further showers Thursday max 6-7mm which is much less than originally forecast. Dry on Friday and Raceday. Max temperature 9-10°C. Live weather & going: https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/haydock/owners-and-trainers/the-going/
Weather (yr.no latest): 8mm Thursday; dry thereafter
1.50pm Ascot (11 entries; maximum of 18 runners): Butch, Deep Cave, Issam, Jeriko Du Reponet (finished second in an uneventful match on Tuesday), Knappers Hill, Leave Of Absence
NB: Dee Capo/Firefox are in early-closers over Christmas/New Year; Iroko is in an early-closer on Jan 1
2.05pm Haydock (17 entries; maximum of 20 runners): Nambiti
NB: Minella Blueway, My Silver Lining, O’Toole, Saladins Son and Top Of The Bill are in Welsh National on Dec 27; Velvet Elvis is in early-closer on Dec 27
2.25pm Ascot (13 entries; maximum of 18 runners): NONE
NB: Colonel Mustard and Honesty Policy are in an early-closer on Dec 28
2.40pm Haydock (10 entries; maximum of 15 runners): Walks The Talk
3pm Ascot (15 entries; maximum of 18 runners): Deep Cave, Knappers Hill, Leave Of Absence
NB: Hyland also in Welsh National on Dec 27
3.35pm Ascot (16 entries; maximum of 18 runners): Fiercely Proud, Hardy De Seuil, King William Rufus (due to run on Friday)
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