By Tony Calvin - 17 June 2025
They put on 5mm of water after racing and the ground remains good to firm, good in places at the moment.
Whether or not that 5mm is enough to keep the good in places intact must be debatable in this heat – the times weren’t that rapid yesterday – but we had no going-related withdrawals on Tuesday, which means there is a healthy appetite for top-class racing on fast ground when the mood suits.
Long may it continue.
We got the usual hard-luck stories on the round course yesterday but the racing on the straight track didn’t reveal any significant bias (yet), though the first four home in the King Charles III Stakes were 16-15-17-14 (that said 19-21-20 filled three of the last four places).
It’ll be interesting what the updated going stick readings at 8.30am tell us. They have been updated below now, so take a look.
My only serious bet for Tuesday’s racing – although I frittered away a few quid elsewhere, don’t get me wrong, on a quiet punting day, as outlined in copy – was a persistent ante-post punt on Mgheera in the aforementioned King Charles III Stakes, though Lake Forest got more expensive the more he drifted (that horse needs some blinkers or headgear).
So you can imagine my mood when she got pulled out at the start, as trainer Ed Walker had said beforehand he wanted her withdrawn if she lost a shoe, which she duly did (presumably the fact that she can be fractious was the reasoning behind that).
Shit happens.
My thoughts darkened further a minute later when the horse she had beaten previously in the Temple Stakes at Haydock, American Affair, duly won the race.
Oh well, no one said it was easy, as Chris Martin may have once sung.
Right, I am just doing a few re-writes of races – some annoying shorteners once again – and I’ll post on X five minutes before I publish.
I hope the opening day served you well.
We only have the one Wednesday non-runner so far, Kansas in the last, as he didn’t eat up yesterday.
Judging from Oddschecker, AKBets are betting the first four races incredibly hard once again.
Bold-type galore.
Oh, and I know I bang on about it, but make sure you get your money back if you punted any of the 29 balloted-out horses in the Hunt Cup.
I despise sleepers (and sleeping in fact) as much as The Blues Brothers hated Illinois Nazis.
The top of the market for the Queen Mary changed immediately after the Coventry, as Gstaad pissed up there and he had previously beaten stablemate True Love by ¾ length at Navan.
True Love, drawn 25 of 25, was promptly cut from as big as 8s to a current [5/2], usurping Zelaina as the jolly.
I can see that, but [5/2] looks overly-defensive in a field such as this.
Now, I also fully respect the claims of Nottingham winner Zelaina, not least because Karl Burke won this race with the once-raced pair of Leovanni and Dramatised in 2024 and 2022, and she has drifted from 2s on Tuesday morning and is now available at [7/2] , 24 hours later.
People may have got a bit too over-jiggy about her because she won the same Nottingham race that Leovanni did (the stable’s Beautiful Diamond also took that contest in 2023 and finished third here) but the time was moderate enough, for all she was never out of second gear.
Good horses can run poor times etc etc.
Of course, she can improve and win – most of these can, given their lightly-raced profiles – but I’d want a lot bigger than even her current extended price to consider backing her, though good judges (actually why not name him, it was Hugh Taylor) actually put her up ante-post at [7/2].
Following Taylor in at the same price is never a bad thing.
I wouldn’t pretend to have a strong opinion on this race but I had a few quid on Cardiff By The Sea and Staya for shits and giggles when I first started looking at this race on Monday evening/Tuesday morning.
I know this isn’t helpful but I actually managed to get 25s and 20s on the former, each way, by third party, fire and theft.
Cardiff By The Sea was roundly put in her place by the experienced (and 1-14 poke) Charles Darwin in a four-runner race at Naas on her debut – the winner is the [11/8] favourite for the Norfolk tomorrow – but she clearly shaped exceptionally well, and the third came out and ran well in defeat at Listowel next time.
She is now top at a general 12s, but a far more palatable [18.0] win-only on the exchange. I have had a little press-up at that price just now.
George Scott came into Royal Ascot in moderate form but he had a welcome winner at Beverley last night (win your Ascot-week battles where you can), and his Caballo De Mar ran a screamer too, and he has a potential player in Staya, drawn in four (Cardiff By The Sea is in 16, by the way)
Scott leaves plenty to work on with his juveniles (as do most trainers, in fairness), so it’s an obvious positive that this filly was able to win so well on her debut at Yarmouth in a decent time.
The runner-up was humped at [4/7] at Catterick last time, but she is worth a tenner. Maybe.
I had a score earlier this morning at [19.0], and the current [17.0] looks fair enough (best at 14s fixed odds).
It’s a very low-key punting start to a day where I have largely focused on big-priced horses on the exchange, often out of necessity.
Eternal Solace is a NR as at 9.33am (not eaten up), and America was pulled out at 12.54pm as lame.
In its way this is every bit as tricky as the opener, with these 3yos stepping up to 1m6f – none of these have won over the trip – so we are in the dark to a fair degree.
History tells us that Aidan O’Brien should be the starting point for this race (he has won this five times in the last 10 years) and he has Shackleton and Scandinavia in here.
Neither greatly appeal (though the latter is big enough as 15.0, and I wouldn’t be offering that myself) and I fully respect Paddy Twomey’s unbeaten Carmers.
Basically because the trainer is mustard and doesn’t waste his bullets, with 21 winners from 61 winners in Ireland this season, and a 34 per cent strike rate, though his record on the Flat in the UK is nowhere near as impressive – though he is two from two over jumps – but I think Rahiebb promises to be well suited by this increased stamina test.
Apparently, he was a wild one at home earlier in the year but he has calmed down and improved with his racing (only made his debut in March), and time may tell he was facing Mission Impossible VIII (or whatever the latest version of that over-rated nonsense is) when trying to give Merchant 8lb in a 1m4f York handicap last time.
Now, he was beaten 2 ½ lengths there but the winner is 4s for the King George V handicap on Thursday and the third won a strong Doncaster handicap next time.
Roger Varian wouldn’t be my usual go-to trainer but he won this race with Eldar Eldarov stepping up from 1m2f in 2022 and hopefully 1m6f brings out the necessary improvement needed to get competitive (he .is rated 15lb inferior to Devil’s Advocate).
Run-style and pedigree gives you hope, as Frankel gets his fair share of stayers.
The problem is that this horse was 11s and 10s after the final field was known on Monday (and he was still 8s yesterday afternoon) and he is into just [11/2] in a couple of places, and that could be coming under pressure soon.
You also have to fear the Frenchie Asmarani, though he has already been backed from 10s to 5s as well.
You can see why as the form of his second to Rafale Design was franked by the winner following up in a Group 3 at Chantilly on Sunday.
He may be the form horse in this and he should stay (he made his debut over 1m4f) but the ground is the obvious concern, but Timeform called it good to soft last time (not soft), for what it is worth.
I’ve missed the boast from a betting perspective here then, but the way I am playing this is to back the Varian horse for half of my intended stake at [11/2] now, or a similarly win-only price on the exchange (currently 6.6 there), and look to have the other position if and when he drifts back out. I’ll be looking for 7s+ on the exchange.
I think he is set to run a huge race.
I’ll also look to back Asmarani if he hits 6s+ at any time, any place, anywhere (which seems rather optimistic at the moment).
If Cinderella’s Dream is as good as she looked when smashing up Elmalka in the Dahlia Stakes last time then she could take a lot of whacking here, even under a 3lb penalty.
But she has been shortened into a mere [6/4] – you’d love to have the field running for you at [4/6] – and she is actually 2lb shy of Fallen Angel (who connections flagged pre-race would need it badly in the Lockinge, which I roundly ignored and backed her anyway) on adjusted official ratings, and I’d normally look to have an each-way bet against her.
But I’m always wary of pursuing that punting line in a dead-eight, especially on ground as quick as this and not getting slower any time soon. It may spook one set of connections.
It could well be that Paddy Twomey blinks first with One Look, as the only poor performance in her career came on ground Timeform called good to firm, but I do look like her at around 5s on the exchange.
The way I am going to play this is to wait and play very late, if and when eight are all still standing – and that is probably going to be One Look each way at [9/2] or bigger – but I have just backed the French filly Start Of Day.
I am feeling quite Gallic today, as we will come to again later.
Start Of Day is [24.0] on the exchange and that looks too big.
Like One Look, the obvious potential negative is the quick ground, and her best form is over 1m2f to boot.
But Timeform have called her last two wins as coming on good ground, and this is a filly who ran Ombudsman to ½ length last September and ran a highly creditable 3 ½-length fifth to Friendly Soul in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera.
She looks to me that she could appreciate a fast-run mile (hopefully there will be a good pace in this with Fallen Angel and Soprano) and, although she finished fifth of six on her return last month), she had yesterday’s winner Haatem just a neck ahead of her and she was not seen to be best effect there after sitting last in a slowly-run race.
I’ve convinced myself into a decent win-only bet on her and Christopher Head is no stranger to UK success, with Big Rock and Topgear big race victors.
No-one mention Ramatuelle in the 1,000 Guineas please….
This is not a strong race to my eye.
Elmalka is a late non-runner at 2.41pm because of the going, so there goes the each way 1,2,3 betting.
We could get a late call on the participation of Anmaat in this, but at least each-way players have a non-runner to play with in this nine-strong Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.
I haven’t got a strong opinion in this – at the moment anyway.
That said, I’ve just expressed a betting one as I have just punted another French horse in Facteur Cheval at [55.0] and [50.0].
That is surely far too dismissive, for all the doubts.
He didn’t pull up any palm trees in Dubai and Saudi earlier in the year and this is his first attempt at 1m2f, and I am not sure at all about having a Yank doing the steering, but he is surely overpriced on his best form.
He has a plethora of Group 1 performances to his name and he was rated 120 at his best, and his finest hour may well have come here when chasing home Charyn in the soft in the QEII in October.
The much quicker going helps with the stamina concerns here, and he does have a fast-ground Sussex Stakes third to his name, too.
If Flavien Prat doesn’t position him too far off the pace, then this Dubai Turf winner could have a telling kick close home.
Simply put, 50+ looks far too big win-only.
As does 40+ , in fact.
Certain Lad, one of the pace angles, is a NR as at 10.14am (going).
I absolutely hate it when I agree with the top of the market in a 30-runner handicap, but I can fully see why My Cloud and The Liffey are so short at [4/1] and [8/1], and I quite like three of the four that follow them in the market too – the likes of Bullet Point, Qirat and Fox Legacy (the latter is only 9s now).
One I can’t have is Greek Order, who ranged from [13/2] to 10s on Tuesday but is now a more realistic 14s and 22s+ on Betfair.
I appreciate he returns from four runs in the States on the same mark as when just touched off by ½ length as a [5/2] poke in the 2023 Cambridgeshire, but he surely is silly short.
Or rather was.
I have seen and read some embarrassing Racing Post stories about this gamble on The Liffey. Sure, big prices have been had, but do you really think any bookmaker has got it in for chunks?
That is the 2025 version of bookmakers, betting ante-post.
Give your head a wobble.
Mind you, I like his claims and I am actually reasonably tempted to have a nibble on him at 9s on the exchange.
He may well get bigger though, so I’ll sit tight for now. As at 9am he is already edging 12s on Betfair, and heading towards 14s.
So I had to go looking for a horse much further down the Oddschecker ladder and I was surprised to see the Wathnan-owned Silawi trading at a huge 60.0 on the exchange, given he is officially the best handicapped horse in the race and a midfield draw in 14 gives James Doyle “options”, as they say.
He is officially 2lb well-in under a 5lb penalty for winning impressively at Windsor last month and, while that 1m2f six-runner race is light years away from a 30-runner 1m Hunt Cup, he really caught the eye there when powering through the line.
The runner-up went into the race bidding for a hat-trick (and having won six of his previous seven starts) but he was kicked aside by 3 ½-lengths.
Now, the third and fourth have been roundly humped since, so let’s not get carried away, but Haman Al Jehani looks to be a decent operator and that Windsor run was his debut run for him.
He has never raced over a mile before but he didn’t look slow last time , and I expect him to be ridden aggressively again here.
The 50s+ is an insult and I have thrown another dart on another Wathnan horse, the Qatar-trained, Blue Brother at [60.0]. Actually, I got a little bigger but that is the current price.
He looks well handicapped on his French 1m form last season (notably a nose second to the smart Zoom) and presumably he has been teed up for this by connections after a run in Riyadh in February.
The owners probably wouldn’t be bringing a no-hoper here, and I have chucked a pony at him. The stable had the Wokingham runner-up Dark Trooper here last year, their only Royal Ascot runner to date I believe.
I backed Julia Augusta for this race each-way at 33s as soon as the betting re-opened on Monday, and I still think she is a fair bet at 20s+ win-only on the exchange (she is 16s, six places, each way and that attracts me too).
I took a flier and backed her to win on her reappearance at Epsom earlier in the month and she ran a screamer to finish third. And especially so since she was a colossal drifter, going off at a Betfair SP of 48.0 and 40s industry SP, from under half those odds earlier in the day.
That strongly suggests she ran above expectations there and she returns to the scene of what is probably her career-best at this meeting last year, when a 4 ¾ length sixth in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.
She also didn’t run too far off that level when fifth in a Group 3 here in July.
Off a mark of 97, she is handicapped to run a big race on ground and at a track where she has excelled.
Hopefully, she is the bet of the day – I’ve had a good go on her – and her draw in four isn’t a negative (I’m a bit worried about the lack of pace around her).
At the top of the market, I fear Sky Safari and I will ensure I don’t lose if she wins. I have just backed her at [9.0].
Queen Of Atlantis is a NR as at 7.45am (bad scope).
My eyes glazed over when looking at this 23-runner Windsor Castle.
I probably won’t have a bet – in fact, I won’t and I will leave that to others – but my token choice after a cursory glance was going to be Utmost Respect, despite a few doubts.
The salient part of that sentence is “was”, as I will come to.
I appreciate he is probably something of a bleedin’ obvious horse, as he should have won pulling a cart at York on his debut, only for traffic problems in a six-runner race to prove his undoing.
The winner Ballistic Mile finished 18th of 20 in the Coventry on Tuesday, and the third and fifth were well stuffed in a Carlisle novice since, so marked improvement is obviously needed on the bare form.
And then some.
Throw in the fact, that the stands side may not be the place to be (he is drawn 22), and I can see why I am sitting this out.
But he is clearly all about potential after that York run, and Richard Fahey told the Sporting Life: “We didn’t get the chance to get a second run into him after his encouraging debut at the Dante Meeting. I have had him away from Musley Bank twice since though so he has plenty of experience and is a breeze-up horse who has been on the grass plenty.”
He actually opened up at 25s on Monday – and he was still 16s and 14s early on Tuesday afternoon – but he is now just 10s.
So mark that down as another negative, and there endeth any temptation to get involved in this 2yo crap shoot.
Aidan O’Brien’s Kansas came out at 1.05pm on Tuesday as he hadn’t eaten up. Ryan Moore now rides First Approach.
Going – Round: Good to Firm (good in places); Straight: Good to firm
Going stick: Stands side: 8.5, Centre: 8.6, Farside: 8.5. Round: 7.4 (as of Wednesday 8.30am)
Soil Moisture: 38%.
Wednesday morning course update: Dry over the past 24 hours to 6.30am Wednesday. 0.4mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. It is forecast be dry and warm through to the end of the week. Max temps forecast to be 26c today through to 28c later in the week. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Watering: Watered whole track 5mm Tuesday night. Watered: straight course 6mm on Monday and 5mm on Round course Monday night. Watered 10mm on the straight course last Saturday, Thursday and Tuesday. Watered 5mm on round course on Sunday and Saturday nights and 3mm on Thursday night and Tuesday nights. The current plan for the week is to water each night to replace moisture lost through evapotranspiration.
Rails: The rail on the round course will be positioned approx 4yds out from approx 9f out to the Home Straight this will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside
5pm: Treasure Time, Silent Film, Cracking Gold, Alpha Crucis, New Image, Great Chieftain, Theoryofeverything, Aalto, Native Warrior, Dashing Darcey, Tribal Chief, Sierra Blanca, Hickory, Killybegs Warrior, Superposition, Isla Kai, Romieu, Sterling Knight, Twisting Physics, Surrey Shadow, Classic, Urban Sprawl, Longlai, Garden Route, Mythical Guest, Linwood, Mafnood, Look Back Smiling, Hieronymus
James Owen blinkers 0-15 (since 2024); Social Exclusion, 2.30pm
Karl Burke cheekpieces 16-195 (2016); Fallen Angel, 3.40pm
John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces 13-116 (2021); Running Lion, 3.40pm
Ralph Beckett blinkers 39-257 (2009); Qirat, 5pm
Michael Bell cheekpieces 4-49 (2016); Tony Montana, 5pm
Joseph O’Brien cheekpieces 21-182 (2016); The Liffey, 5pm
Charlie Johnston cheekpieces 1-38 (2023); Francophone, 5.35pm
Daniel and Claire Kubler cheekpieces 0-19 (2020); Ciara Pearl, 5.35pm
Dylan Cunha blinkers 1-6 (2024) ; Kamakameleon, 6.10pm
2.30pm (very little evidence to go on): Caitlin G (drawn 6), Eskimo Pie (3), Guernsey Lady (17), Justice Twice (20), Love Olivia (8), Miss Yechance (11), Social Exclusion (23), Solana Rose (2), True Love (25), Zelaina (15)
3.05pm: Al Wasl Storm (1), Devil’s Advocate (9), Furthur (2), Hallelujah U (8), Rehiebb (10), Shackleton (3), Spinning Wheel (11), Titanium Emperor (6)
3.40pm: Fallen Angel (8), Running Lion? (5), Soprano (7)
4.20pm: Continuous (7), Royal Champion (6)
5pm: Hi Royal (6), The Liffey (31), Bullet Point (2), Silawi (14), Sisyphean (13)
5.35pm: Julia Augusta (4), Ambiente Amigo? (3), Francophone (11), Rose Prick (18), Ciara Pearl (16) Serialise (24), Shallow (14), Viennoise (21)
6.10pm (very little evidence to go on): Dickensian (17), Jan Steen (13), Kamakamelon (4), Logi Bear (10), Rogue Legend (6), Rogue Supremacy (12) (Kansas is a NR)
Excellent: Charlie Clover (last three runners have won, at 15-8, 11-1 and 33-1)
Good: Aidan O’Brien (winner on opening day), William Haggas, John and Thady Gosden (double on opening day), Charlie Appleby (form tailing off), Andrew Balding, Hugo Palmer, Jonathan Portman, George Boughey, James Owen, Gary and Josh Moore, Adrian Keatley, F-H Graffard, Owen Burrows, Paddy Twomey, Roger Varian, Christoper Head (small sample), Jack Channon, Daniel and Claire Kubler, Peter Chapple-Hyam (no winners and small sample), James Horton
Fair: Simon and Ed Crisford, Richard Hannon (winner on opening day), Joseph O’Brien, Ollie Sangster, Ed Walker, David Marnane, Hamad Al Jehani (small sample), Adrian Murray, Kevin Ryan, Archie Watson, Ralph Beckett (moderate for him but winners on Monday and Tuesday), William Knight, Richard Hughes, Jane Chapple-Hyam, George Scott (bordering on moderate but a winner at Beverley on Tuesday), Karl Burke, Charlie Johnston, Michael Bell, Jessie Harrington, Raphael Freire, Gavin Cromwell, Charles Hills, Richard Fahey, Harry Charlton, David O’Meara, J A Stack, Dylan Cunha, David Evans, Tim Easterby, J Reynier. Marco Botti (winner on Tuesday evening), Jamie Osborne, Keiran Burke, Paul Attwater (four runners; one 6-1 winner), Stephen Thorne, Gemma Tutty (no winners, though), James Fanshawe, Kevin Philippart de Foy, Eve Johnson Houghton, John S O’Donoghue, Jack Jones, Michael and David Easterby, Roger Fell (recent winner to end a barren spell)
Moderate: Brian Meehan, David Menuisier, Michael Keady, Hilal Kobeissi, Muir and Grassick, Charlie Fellowes, Richard Spencer, Ian Williams
Don’t know: Jack Morland, Patrick Biancone, A de Mieulle, George Weaver
BOXING DAY early thoughts on Sunday, with a few Monday betting updates in bold CHANGE…
SATURDAY’S DETAILS KEMPTON (4mm overnight into Monday) GOING: Good to Soft (Good in places) Going Ratio: 60:40…
Horse Racing
Greyhounds
Darts
Football
Home