TONY CALVIN: RACE-BY-RACE guide to today’s ITV races

1.25pm Cheltenham – 7/1 Inch House weighted to go well, but race is hard to call

Let’s not sugar-coat it. These Cheltenham fields don’t make the £32 to get in on the gate today seem much of a bargain.

By this time of the Christmas-New Year period, the cupboard is running bare of the required horses to service these races.

Anyway, I could see why Inch House was cut into 7s and [13/2] from 9s for this on Wednesday afternoon, in a field of a precarious dead-eight for potential each-way backers, for all Herakles Westwood (from a stable in brilliant form) and New Order are obvious dangers.

I backed him at a big price for the Coral Gold Cup last time and he was supported into 12s , but it went wrong at the first and it immediately put him on the back foot, and it was soon a lost cause.

But he is 4lb lower here (he was 2lb out of the handicap at Newbury) and he showed enough previously at Cheltenham to suggest he has a big run in him.

He is 8lb lower than when second to Stumptown in this race two years ago, when with Jonjo O’Neill, and hopefully he can get into a good rhythm on the front end here.

If he does, it is game on, but I haven’t had a bet yet, to be honest.

It’ll be interesting to see how quick the ground rides. It remains good but the going stick reading is back into 6.3.

Shannon Royale is lively late on into 5s, probably the strongest in an open race.

1.40pm Musselburgh – Price has gone on Wise Eagle – for now, at least

As 0-135 handicap hurdles go (it is effectively a 110-127), this is a pretty competitive contest, for one worth just 30k anyway, but keep an eye out for non-runners.

Okay, we have nine currently in here, but these withdrawals can creep up on you.

To me, Wise Eagle was the obvious one to beat, as a 99-rated Flat performer (107 best in that sphere) running off a hurdles level of 127.

He had a wind op prior to an okay run at Southwell last month, and the cheekpieces he wore for a couple of his better efforts on the level are back on here.

Throw in the fact that he is a five-time course scorer and you don’t have to be Inspector Morse (or his inferior Geordie sidekick Neville from Auf Wiedersehen Pet) to work out that he has a leading chance, especially when you also advertise the 2m4f trip suiting and the fact that the (small) stable form is no concern, with a well-backed winner at Kelso three days ago.

He was a very fair bet at [9/2] and 4s when I first looked at the race on New Year’s Eve, but he is now a general [9/4], so it’s a definite pass.

The [5/2] was taken this morning, but he may well drift back out.

But when the price has gone, it’s best to walk away, Renee.

He hasn’t drifted, as of 1.25pm.

2pm Cheltenham – 10/1 Grandeur could be the pick of the prices in a tricky race

Not a race I would have  too much of an inclination to have a bet in, but Grandeur d’Ame was half-attractive as an each-way 10s poke on Wednesday afternoon.

And he remains that general price, and a bit bigger win-only on the exchange, too.

You’d like to see the stable in a bit better form, and the horse in a lot better form than he showed at Newbury last time (though he was never to going stay 3m2f+), but he is now down to a mark of 136, some 2lb lower than just inched out by Moon D’Orange (re-opposes) here last January.

He was also in the process of running a good race when falling at the last in the race won by Be Aware at Stratford in October and, while ground-versatile, this trip on decent ground is fine for him.

But, as I said, I’ll not be betting in this myself.

It’s a pretty static market as at 1.25pm.

2.15pm Musselburgh – 17/2 Breizh River makes some appeal – the most appeal, in fact

Just the nine runners again in here in Scotland, but another decent enough turn-out for a 50k pot.

Nothing is rock-solid in here, but Breizh River looked okay at 10s in two places last night. Annoyingly, the 10s and 9s went overnight, and he is now [17/2] tops.

But that is still acceptable to my eye.

He has run okay in a novice hurdle and in a 2m4f handicap chase at Newcastle in his two recent starts for new trainer Tristan Davidson, and he is certainly exceptionally well handicapped off 115 on his chase starts from not too long ago.

Indeed, that is some 20lb lower than his peak mark achieved in October 2024.

His two starts here resulted in him being pulled up, but Davidson is a shrewd cookie when he has his eyes on a big prize and maybe the first-time tongue-tie is key to solving the puzzle with this 8yo. That and the falling handicap mark.

And that Newcastle 11-length third last time to Alcedo and Grand Geste has been advertised by the first two since, the runner-up ridiculously so.

Yes, the [17/2] and 8s is still okay, and the most attractive bet in the ITV races, each way.

2.35pm Cheltenham – It’ll be disappointing if the favourite doesn’t take this, but that is why he is 1/2

A decidedly underwhelming Relkeel Hurdle, and it will be disappointing if Kabral Du Mathan can’t step up the ladder to a probable hit-up in the Stayers’ Hurdle by taking this with some ease.

It’s a poor Grade 2,

A general price of [1/2] tells you that – the [8/15] was taken first thing – and then some.

A move up in trip and a wind op saw him obliterate a decent handicap field at Haydock by 12 lengths on his debut for Dan Skelton, and that is unlikely to be the end of his progression.

The Haydock form has been franked too, with the runner-up winning snugly off a 1lb higher mark at Newbury earlier this week, and this race looks his for the taking.

But, again, the layers aren’t giving anything away here at 2s-on.

The main opposition to the favourite is currently Jingko Blue, into 5s from 9s and 8s today. The fact that he is rated just 144 tells you what a modest renewal this is.

The money has continued to come for Jingko Blue into 7/2, with the favourite touching 4/5.

2.50pm Windsor – Has the Missile been targeted at this?

I wasn’t surprised to see a few people put up Minella Missile for this 52k-to-the-winner pot on Wednesday (that’s December 31 to most at a time when we all lose track of what day it is), but the price has still held up to a reasonable degree at the general 12s (the 18s and 16s was taken yesterday, and the remaining 14s at 7am this morning).

He is obviously a tricky horse to call from a betting perspective and whether he goes off at 5s or 20s+ is hard to call in these lawless days, we shall see, but I suspect the ability is still present if the will to express it is.

If you know what I mean, Harry.

It’s another tasty contest for a very good pot, and it is the latter that leads me to believe that if Minella Missile stills hold an ounce of the ability he showed when winning a Grade 2 in October 2023 then this is D-Day off a mark of a mere 122.

Certainly, his fourth to the runaway winner Kabral Du Mathan at Haydock last time showed a glimmer of hope (and the second and sixth have won since) and now is surely the time they pull the trigger if they believe they have the required ammo.

The stable is in pretty poor form and this is a total guess-up, but the first-time cheekpieces here are a net positive on the stats (see below) and Minella Missile’s half-brother Monbeg Genius has won in that headgear.

He shaped okay over 3m here last January (off a 16lb higher mark than this), so he has had a course sighter, and expect him to be played late off what promises to be a strongly-run race looking at the pace map below.

But the 12s is now probably borderline given the doubts, so no play.

Wellington Arch is now into [9/2] from double figures.

3.10pm Cheltenham – Harbour possibly a bit too big at 20s

Harbour Lake was a filthy-weak 33s poke on his return at Haydock and ran accordingly.

He has been given a wind-op since and eased 1lb by the handicapper, so he initially interested me a touch as the outsider at 20s of this particular party,

And he has run two excellent races over course and distance on good ground here.

However, maybe he needs to come down in the weights a lot more, as the handicapper was harsh in raising him 5lb for a narrow Haydock win in May.

And, as I said earlier, I am not sold on the form of the Alan King yard.

But 20s is too big for me to ignore, so I’ll be having a small bet on him, literally a tenner, I imagine.

Ace Of Spades is into [13/8].

TODAY’s DETAILS – all courses have updated this morning

CHELTENHAM (low sun alert)

GOING: Good

Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture

Going Stick – 6.3, Thursday 6.30am

Rails: Chase rail +7y Hurdle rail +6y

• Race 1:Race distance is now +54y to 2m 4f 110y
• Race 2:Race distance is now +63y to 2m 4f 190y
• Race 3:Race distance is now +84y to 3m 1f 140y
• Race 4:Race distance is now +63y to 2m 4f 190y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +54y to 2m 4f 110y
• Race 6:Race distance is now +72y to 3m 65y
• Race 7:Race distance is now +36y to 2m 215y

Today’s course update: 45mm of rainfall since the last meeting (13th). 1.5mm since 19th. Dry forecast through to racing. Temperatures remained above +2 through the night and are forecast to rise to +7 degrees this afternoon. Frost covers have been deployed on take-offs, landings and vulnerable areas.

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry and sunny spells

Watering: Selective watering finished on Monday.

MUSSELBURGH 

GOING – Good to soft

GOING STICK: 7.5, Thursday 7am (Musselburgh’s going stick parameters- Soft 5.6 – 6.6, Good to Soft 6.6 – 7.6, Good 7.6 – 8.6.)

Rails: Bottom bend split. Chases on the outside, Hurdles on the inner.

Today’s course update: Partly Cloudy. A frost free start to the day but a cold and breezy day to come with sunny spells and while it should stay mainly dry, there is a small risk of catching an isolated shower. 5*C

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry and sunny spells

WINDSOR – no going stick reading for six days for an ITV card is a joke

GOING: Good, good to soft in places

Going Stick 7.7 on Fri 7:00am (six days out of date so of little use)

Soil Moisture– 49% . Todays updates unavailable due to frost covers

Rails: 3 yards off the inside line around the Marina Bend. 8 yards off the inside line around the Winning Post Bend.

Today’s course update: Temperatures rising throughout the morning, around 6°C for racing with light cloud

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry and sunny spells

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Peter Niven visor, Malystic , 2,15pm Musselburgh; 1-7 since 2013

Evan Williams cheekpieces; Minella Missile, 2.50pm Windsor; 13-98 since 2016

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; ITV races only)

1.25pm Cheltenham: Does He Know (prom), Shannon Royale (prom), Inch House, New Order

1.40pm Musselburgh: Moonbow, Serious Chat (prom), Bold Light (prom), Fasol?, Bel Amigo, Chanonry Point

2pm Cheltenham: Jungle Boogie, Matata, Twinjets, Riskintheground?, Il Ridoto (prom), Grandeur D’Ame, Glengouly

2.15pm Musselburgh: Inox Allen, Jet To Vegas?, Blue d’Enfer, Rexem?, Breizh River (prom)

2.35pm Cheltenham: Gowel Road, Kamsinas?, The Real Whacker

2.50pm Windsor: Rambo T?, Wellington Arch, Idy Wood, Stream Of Stars, Hartington (prom?), Thanksforthehelp (prom)

3.10pm Cheltenham: Double Powerful, Ace Of Spades, Love Of Neymore, Pike Road

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; ITV races only; going into New Year’s Day)

Good: Bailey and Nicholls, Warren Greatrex, Sam Thomas, Paul Nicholls, Anthony Honeyball (in great nick), Robbie Llewellyn, Adam Nicol, Tristan Davidson (very small sample, so probably more fair), Olly Murphy (double on Wednesday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (really steaming along after their shutdown), Jamie Snowden

Fair: Nicky Henderson, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Dan Skelton, John McConnell (probably moderate in the main), Fergal O’Brien (winner on Wednesday), Patrick Neville (small sample; no winners), Emma Lavelle, Neil Mulholland (winner on Tuesday), Donald McCain (winner on Tuesday), Russell and Scudamore, Nicky Richards, Nick Alexander, David Pipe (borderline good)

Moderate: Ian Donoghue, Charlie Longsdon (no winners but maybe harsh assessment), Venetia Williams, Alan King (few running well enough in defeat, though), Faye Bramley (very small sample, so possibly more fair), Martin Keighley (11-4 winner on Wednesday), Joe Tizzard (winner on Tuesday though), Evan Williams

Don’t know: Samuel Drinkwater, Dianne Sayer, Ann Hamilton, Peter Niven (two runners; one 7-4 winner)