TONY CALVIN: A few big prices to consider on Monday, including a 33s poke in Irish National

2.35pm Plumpton – Good prize money, tough race

Plenty of pace in here for this £52,810-to-the-winner prize – well done, Plumpton – Sussex Champion Chase (see pace maps below).

It looks a very difficult puzzle to solve to me, and nothing appeals at the prices. One firm are trying to drum up some business by going clear top price of [9/2] about forward-goers Asta La Pasta and Sans Bruit, and 6s Westport Cove, but even those stand-out odds do little for me.

Easily filed under too difficult.

It’s a day where I don’t feel strongly about any of the races, so I am betting accordingly (or not, at all).

JPR One and Westport Cove are the strongest in the market on Monday morning but it is very early days there.

The same applies to all markets as the amounts traded will have been negligible.

2.55pm Kempton – 16/1 Crown could hit the board and maybe more

Watch out for non-runners in this dead-eight.

I can fully see why Okeechobee is the early [9/4] favourite, but the one that half-interested me at the prices was the 16s chance Crown Board (available in four places), though I haven’t played yet.

Jane Chapple-Hyam has her team in good nick and, while Crown Board has a lot to find on the figures, there are reasons why he could get into the mix here.

Most obviously, this is only his fourth start, so he is unexposed.

Secondly, the step up in trip really should suit on pedigree – the dam won nine times at up 2m – and maybe the first-time hood will suit (not that the trainer is particularly good in this sphere – see below).

The dam also won four times on the all-weather and improved for blinkers.

A fair bit to like in truth maybe, at the price.

He now trades at a best-priced 10s on Monday morning (and as short as 13-2) but he will surely drift. Okeechobee has drifted to 3s, and Military Order is now vying for favouritism.

3.15pm Fairyhouse – 50/1 Petit King has his ground and headgear back on

I am not going to bullshit you.

When I was doing my stats and trainerform, and the like, for Fairyhouse, I didn’t recognize a fair few of the horses and trainers.

So I won’t be having a bet in any of the Fairyhouse ITV races, with the exception of the Irish Grand National.

And, remember, we are dealing with very deep, raced-on, ground, so this could be attritional stuff.

The [50-1] outsider Petit King in here has been running poorly, and will probably be a much bigger price win-only on the exchange, but he will love the going and it is probably a positive that the cheekpieces are back on, which he has worn for a few of his better efforts.

He hasn’t worn them in his last four starts since a 3-length third of 18 here over 2m last April, off a 1lb higher mark than this.

Actually, I may chuck a few quid on him win-pnly, for all the 2m6f trip could be problematical.

But he is 50s, so what do you expect? Negatives aplenty at these prices.

If the ground doesn’t ride too bad, Hamsiyann has a major, major chance (was 12s at start of day) on his good ground defeat of Long Draw at Cheltenham in November. He has blown out twice since, though.

Hamsiyann is now best at 8s and a general 6s chance (he is now a non-runner. though).

3.30pm Kempton – Sky Safari a justified [7/4] poke

A disappointing field of just seven for this London Mile qualifier, for the females, but I suppose we have had a fair bit of all-weather racing lately….

Sky Safari is the [7/4] favourite, which is as expected given her profile and what looks a generous enough mark, just 3lb higher than for her admittedly narrow Wolverhampton win in October. The stable form certainly wouldn’t put you off either.

The step up to 1m, from 7f, looks certain to suit on pedigree. She is bred to stay a lot further, too.

Sky Safari is into [5/4] best now.

3.50pm Fairyhouse – Kopeck De Mee is the [10/3] favourite to go one better, up in class

I definitely won’t be having a bet in this, as it looks very tricky.

Kopeck De Mee is the [10/3] favourite for this Grade 2 after showing his true worth at Aintree last week, albeit he was beaten off 136 in handicap company.

Kopeck De Mee is now best at 2s. He is now a non-runner though, along with Beacon Edge.

4.05pm Kempton – 16/1 Tiger Crusade could be another big-priced winner for Simcock

David Simcock had a great day at Lingfield on Good Friday, with 25/1 and 22/1 winners – and an inch or two certainly made a big difference as they won by a nose and a short-head.

Tiger Crusade hasn’t run well on his last two starts but he has at least come down 2lb and his earlier form over 6f and 7f gives him every chance.

He is race-fit and a lot of his best form has come at this track.

It’s a bit of a guess-up and he is the old man of the party here at eight, but I thought the 16s was okay (one of the firms going 16s are offering four places for each-way punters). I haven’t backed him yet but I probably will win-only on Betfair, very small, where he currently trades at 25s+.

Tiger Crusade is now 20s in a place, fixed odds.

4.20pm Fairyhouse – 13/8 Heart Wood the one to beat

I was surprised to see Heart Wood so short in this Grade 2, for all he gets weight here.

He ranges from [10/11] to [13/8].

He is obviously still the one to beat here after his Ryanair second, but he is very skinny.

Heart Wood is now best at [11/10] as of Monday morning.

Changing each-way terms with a NR

One of the main pace angles, Ash Tree Meadow, is now a NR.

It has further significance as this race now has just seven runners.

4.40pm Kempton – 5/1 Hierarchy could get his head in front

Another dead-eight and Stuart Kittow’s (his is another stable in good form) Coup De Force is a much-respected opponent, but maybe Hierarchy is a more attractive price at 5s.

Just about.

This is a 0-78, and he is a 71-rated 6yo, so let’s not go overboard here (and do you need to be betting in this grade?), but a reproduction of his last two Southwell efforts off this mark should see him go close again.

He has obviously regressed since his 108-rated days but this is his level now and he has plenty of form around here, too. Any 5s+ looks okay.

Rebel Path is the one for early money, into 4s in a place and a general [7/2].

5pm Fairyhouse – 33/1 Harry Des Ongrais has an interesting profile

Thirty runners in deep ground, so I’d be lying if I said I’ll throw more than a score on anything.

In fact, I already have – and that is only because someone mentioned the horse to me on Saturday morning (so I’ve essentially nicked this).

And when I looked I thought he was overpriced at 40s in three places.

He is “only” 33s now (available in six places) – and he is currently [50.0] on Betfair’s early exchange market – and that still looks okay.

Oh, the horse is called Harry Des Ongrais, by the way.

The 8yo has had just the three chase starts (though he won his sole point by 10 lengths), and he has never gone beyond 3m before, but he has the profile of a project that Henry De Bromhead likes, in that he is unexposed over fences after showing fair form in a fair few starts over hurdles to gain experience.

Very similar to Theatre Native in fact, who bolted up on her handicap debut at Cheltenham last week after just the three qualifying chase runs (that win was a rare ray of light for the stable, by the way, which is a worry).

I’ve currently had £19 win-only at 45.58 on the machine, so hardly a strong opinion (once again).

I imagine he won’t know what has hit him here with 29 rivals, but even so. A mark of 145 is no gift on his form to date, which included a second to the impressive Fun Fun Fun in a Grade 3 last time, but this horse is all about potential.

It sounds like Tullybeg and Hashting have been taken out before the deadline, so reserves Another Choice and Will Do get a run.

It is [15/2] the field if you shop around.

GOING AND WEATHER FOR MONDAY – updated 8.14am Monday

PLUMPTON (3-6mm being applied to the whole course since racing yesterday, expected to finish around 10am)

Whole course has been vertidrained.

GOING  – Chase: Good; Hurdles: Good, good to soft in places

Going stick  – Chase:  7.0  Hurdles: 6.0 (Monday 6.30am)

Monday morning update: 2mm of rain yesterday morning. Forecast looks mostly dry with sunny spells, chance of catching some light showers in the afternoon. Max temp 15C.

Watering: 12-18mm circuit applied Thursday-Friday. 6mm applied to the whole course on Saturday. 3-6mm being applied to the whole course since racing yesterday, expected to finish around 10am.

Rails: Shared bend in use. Will move bends approx 3yds after racing on Sunday. Chase bends: 9yds from innermost line. Hurdle bends: -1yds from innermost line.

• 2:00pm: Race distance is now -13y to 3m 204y
• 2:35pm: Race distance is now +99y to 2m 1f 93y
• 3:10pm: Race distance is now -8y to 1m 7f 187y
• 3:45pm: Race distance is now -11y to 2m 4f 103y
• 4:19pm: Race distance is now +148y to 3m 2f 80y
• 4:55pm: Race distance is now -8y to 1m 7f 187y
• 5:35pm: Race distance is now -11y to 2m 1f 153y

Weather forecast: Dry, 17 degrees, with chance of a light shower

KEMPTON

GOING: Standard to slow

Stalls: All inside

FAIRYHOUSE (2mm overnight)

GOING: Soft, soft-heavy in places (as per Monday morning course update on X)

Monday morning update: Soft. , Soft to Heavy in places. Following 2mm of rain & a mainly dry day yesterday. Fresh ground both tracks today. Possibility of isolated showers today. Amended distances today: Race 1, 2 & 8 now 2m 25yards, Race 3 is now 2m 5f & Race 4 is now 2m 4f.

Forecast: 2mm Monday

BALLOTED OUT HORSES (make sure you get your money back)

5pm Fairyhouse: Aworkinprogress, Brandt, Canal End, Fortunedefortunata, History Of Fashion, Inis Oirr, Jumping Jet, Klarc Kent, Outside The Door, Prince Palace, The Gradual Slope, Val Dancer

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

PACE MAPS (manually done)

2.35pm Plumpton: Westport Cove, Matterhorn?, Sans Bruit, Asta La Pasta, Teddy Blue (prom), Aucunrisque (prom)

2.55pm Kempton (no guaranteed front-runner): Checkandchallenge (prom), Crown Board (prom), Okeechobee (prom)

3.15pm Fairyhouse: Farmers Lodge (prom), Oscars Brother (prom), Clodders Dream, Eagles Reign, Glen Kiln, Angostura, Idefix Des Ciergues,

3.30pm Kempton: Mercury Day (prom), Sky Safari (prom), Dramatic Effect, Twirler (prom)

3.50pm Fairyhouse: Maxxum, Gala Marceau (prom)

4.05pm Kempton: Ahlain, Metaverse, Dancing Magic

4.20pm Fairyhouse:  Saint Sam, Blood Destiny?, Kilcruit?, Rebel Gold (prom)

4.40pm Kempton: Giant, Rebel Path, Dashing Harry, World Of Darcy (prom), Cypriot Diaspara

5pm Fairyhouse (those that have led recently only; plenty of prominent racers): Better Days Ahead, Daily Present, Sa Majeste, Panda Boy, Bushmans Pass, Noble Birth, Lord Lariat, Search For Glory

TRAINERFORM (manually done; ITV races)

Good: Jane Chapple-Hyam, Charlie Appleby, Harry Charlton, Andrew Balding, James Fanshawe, David Simcock,  James Tate, Newland and Insole, Stuart Kittow, Amanda Perrett (very small sample),  Harry Derham (winner on Saturday), Chris Gordon, Ross O’Sullivan (very good – another winner on Sunday), Rebecca Curtis (very good), Willie Mullins (he had a ridiculously good Sunday)

Fair:  George Boughey, William Knight, Archie Watson, John and Thady Gosden, Mark Loughnane, Marco Botti, , David Menuisier (winner on Saturday), David Evans, Richard Spencer, Stuart Williams (14-1 winner on Friday), Jamie Osborne, Rod Millman (arguably good), Paul Nicholls, Jedd O’Keeffe, Henry Oliver, Gordon Elliott, Gavin Cromwell, Tony Martin, Henry de Bromhead (though the form of the yard is a worry), Patrick Foley, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Ian Donoghue. Joe Tizzard (welcome 4-1 winner on Saturday, and a short-head second on Sunday, but arguably moderate in the main), Dan Skelton, Paul Nolan (winner on  Sunday),

Moderate: George Baker, Alice Haynes (though a recent winner in France), Eve Johnson Houghton, Michael Attwater, James Horton, Venetia Williams (very moderate), Paul John Gilligan (big prices though)

Don’t know: Conrad Allen, Roger Teal, John Ryan , Barry Connell, Connor King, Padraig Roche, Edward Cawley, David Harry Kelly, Edward Courtenay, H Rogers (I’m a bit surer now he had a 33-1 winner on Sunday….), Lorna Fowler (two runners, one winner), William Durkan, Martin Brassil, Ted Walsh (7-2 winner on  Sunday), Dermot A McLoughlin, Thomas Gibney, Oliver McKiernan, Matthew J Smith, Peter Fahey