By Tony Calvin - 1 October 2024
I decided to knock out this domestic ante-post piece more as a public service to provide the weekend double-entries, rather than because I particularly wanted to back anything on first inspection.
However, that is why you dig deeper. Occasionally something rises to the surface.
Please do check out my Arc piece on the akbets.bet site. All the tipping columns and podcasts can be found by clicking on the “Tips” tab on the website.
At least we pretty much know it is going to be soft at a minimum at the three ITV tracks at Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar on Saturday (see current going and weather below)
As I said above, my initial instincts were that you were better off leaving most of the eight ante-post markets alone, especially at Newmarket.
In fact, the opening two races on the box at Newmarket haven’t been priced up yet, as they were late additions to the ITV roster.
Connections entered for Newmarket knowing full well they would get plenty of ease in the ground (though the course did get another 9mm through the day), so they knew the score there.
There aren’t many double-entered horses in those first two races, and I was initially going to go with “none” in the 11-runner Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at 2.40pm. The ground at Newmarket remains soft, with 15mm of rain on Tuesday not changing the going, surprisingly (see below).
However, none is not strictly true as Nashwa, Inspiral, Rogue Millennium, Roaring Lion, Elmalka, Darnation, Ylang Ylang, Tamfana, See The Fire, Friendly Soul and Wingspan are all currently in Sunday’s Prix de l’Opera, for all they were historic entries.
However, the forfeit stage for the l’Opera is on Wednesday and it sounds as though plenty of the 11 are set to head to Newmarket, but I wouldn’t be betting at this stage myself. The general 7s chance Ylang Ylang is winking at me if going to HQ, though.
But – ***** update alert on Wednesday morning ******* – Ylang Ylang was still one of seven kept in the Opera (see below for updated list).
I wouldn’t be touching Redcar’s Two Year Old Trophy either. There are 27 entries for that race (a maximum field of 23 on the day) and those that take up the option look likely be running on very testing ground.
Formwise, Billboard Star is a worthy [7/2] chance and she handled heavy ground well enough in the Mill Reef last time, but she would have had a hard race at Newbury and this represents just a two-week turnaround.
The formbook says Francisco’s Piece won on heavy ground at Chantilly in June, but Timeform called it good to soft that day. On the plus side, Timeform called it heavy when he probably ran a career best in defeat off a mark of 97 at Haydock last time.
Again, that was only last week, though.
Over to Ascot then. It is now heavy, soft in places, and the round course is currently waterlogged in places, as per Wednesday morning after another 9mm overnight.
The 13-runner Rous Stakes at 1.50pm has the potential to cut up (see below for double entries) and it is yet another race best left alone for now.
A glance at the Oddschecker grids show you the prices are all around the place – for example, Emaraaty Ana ranges from 5s to 14s, and the double-entered Relief Rally (also in the 3pm at Ascot) is actually as low as 2s – and I imagine bookmakers will be cutting odds for very little money in this scenario.
There is also a massive difference of opinion in the Cumberland Lodge at 2.25pm.
One firm go [6/4] Al Aasy and [3/1] Al Qareem, while another bets [6/4] Al Qareem and [9/4] Al Aasy.
I bet they still take little more than a bean even with those differentials.
Me? I have no idea of running plans, but perhaps someone does.
It is probably not the best idea to have 5f Listed and 6f Group 3 races, both for 3yo+, on the same card, and Relief Rally (6s) and Go Athletico (general 10s but 14s and 16s in places) are entered in both races.
It is understandably a very defensively priced-up market though – one firm have six of the 14 entries priced from [9/4] to [6/1], which effectively says “go away”– and a very tight-knit one on official ratings, to boot.
The 180k 7f handicap at 3.35pm will be the biggest domestic betting race of the weekend and it has attracted 36 entries for a race that can house just 18 on the day.
That figure of just 18 surprised me, but it seems par for the course in this race.
There are three well-in horses in here. They are Amphius (4lb and a 16s chance), Golden Mind (3lb and 16s) and Germanic (2lb and 10s).
All look very fairly priced.
The 16s about the well-related Amphius in four places did look puzzlingly big.
Perhaps those layers took the view that he had a very hard race when just touched off on very deep ground at Newbury last time and that connections may wait for the Balmoral for him here on October 19, to allow him an extra two weeks to freshen up.
That may be right, but he if runs on Saturday, and runs to the level of form that saw him give an unexposed sort a real tussle at Newbury with a well-fancied horse over 5 lengths away in third, then he is set to run a huge race.
Then another thought occurred to me.
Maybe, owners Juddmonte will be content just to rely on their [6/1] favouriite Qirat here.
And that is a horse that I have a huge amount of time for.
Having tipped him twice previously when a non-runner on going thought to be too quick, I was bit gutted I missed him at Goodwood last time when he landed a punt on good to soft ground.
I think that race was run on a Sunday and I simply didn’t clock that he was running. Perhaps I should become a Tracker disciple after all.
However, I thought he was value for far more than the length he won there, and a 5lb rise was fair, if not generous.
However, the latter comes firmly into play after the runner-up, Witness Stand, came out and won a Listed race by 3 lengths. Witness Stand was rated 105 when chinned by Qirat and is now on a mark of 115.
And Qirat should appreciate the ground.
However, I can’t be tipping 6s chances (he is that price with AKBets) ante-post in 36-runner handicaps, even though there is no way I would lay those odds myself.
I’ll probably happily tip him if he is around that price in the day-of-race market on Thursday and Friday, though.
I have had too many no-shows to get my fingers burned for the sake of nicking a point or two. And, who knows, Juddmonte may rely on just Amphius and keep Qirat back for the Balmoral, for which he is the [8/1] favourite.
As for the Arc, 18 runners remain in the race after Tuesday’s second forfeit stage. A decision will be made on Wednesday morning whether Bluestocking will be supplemented at a cost of 120,000 euros.
The updated going stick reading of 6.9 on Wednesday suggests it has dried out to nearly good to soft.
Interestingly, Continuous remains one of just eight in Saturday’s Prix du Cadran, though Aidan O’Brien also has Kyprios and Point Lonsdale in that race, so it was probably just a precautionary confirmation.
It’s obviously a slight concern if you have already backed him for the Arc, though.
The less doubts the better when betting ante-post, and – another *****update alert**** – his supporters would have been happy to see him be taken out of the Cadran on Wednesday morning.
Good luck.
GOING AND WEATHER FOR SATURDAY – updated 11.45am Wednesday
ASCOT (two-day meeting starting on Friday)
Going – Heavy, soft in places (the round course is currently waterlogged in places)
Going stick – Straight: 6.1; Round: 4.8
Weather: light showers today; 4mm Saturday
NEWMARKET
Going: Soft (bizarrely remains soft after another 15mm on Tuesday)
Going stick: Not even updated since 8am Saturday
Weather: pretty dry now
REDCAR
Going: Soft, heavy in places
Going stick: 6.2 at 11.15am Wednesday
Weather: showers Wednesday and Thursday
LONGCHAMP
Going: Good to soft (as per Turftrax)
Official says “Tres Souple”, though penetrometer has gone from 4.4 to 4.0 to 3.9 to current 3.8 in recent days (3.8 as per Wednesday morning), so drying.
Going stick reading: 6.9 (in good to soft band)
Weather: 6mm Sunday from early hours
DOUBLE-ENTRIES FOR ALL SATURDAY ITV RACES (keep an eye on French entries) – updated 11.45am Wednesday.
1.30pm Newmarket: Big Bear Hug, Bint Al Daar, Elladonna (entered overnight on Wednesday), Kinetic, Noisy Jazz, Ten Dimes, Treasure
1.50pm Ascot: Enchanting, Go Athetico, Relief Rally, Rumstar, Toca Madera (in addition, Desperate Hero, Rogue Lightning and Relief Rally are also still in the Abbaye on Sunday)
2.05pm Newmarket: Afentiko (finished second in France on Tuesday morning), Bad Habits, Rogue Bullet entered overnight on Wednesday), Lesley’s Boy, Saxon Raider, Twafeeg, Maui Breeze, Lily’s Bet (entered overnight on Wednesday)
2.25pm Ascot: None, it seems (couldn’t see any French entries at weekend when scrolling through France Galop)
2.40pm Newmarket: Rogue Millennium, Roaring Lion, Darnation, Ylang Ylang, See The Fire, Friendly Soul and Wingspan are all currently in Sunday’s Prix de l’Opera
3.00pm Ascot: Go Athletico, Relief Rally, Korker, Russet Gold
3.20pm Redcar: Midnight Strike, Invitorio (due to run on Tuesday), Lady With The Lamp, Twafeeq
3.35pm Ascot: Ramazan, Northern Express, Never So Brave, Zoum Zoum, Golden Mind, United Approach, Hickory (entered overnight on Wednesday)
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