By Tony Calvin - 26 May 2025
A very low-key weekend, with none of the ITV Saturday races from the three courses being early-closers, and the highest grade of race are Group 3s.
That’s fine – we have the Epsom Classics next weekend, and racing needs its top-grade downtime – and probably of more significance to punters is the wet spell that is set to hit the north this week (the three ITV tracks are York, Haydock and Chester – there is only 36 miles between the last-named pair, so racegoers who live nearby have a choice there).
As you can see from the forecasts below, all are set to get pretty wet, and any good ground could be disappearing from all three come the weekend.
That said, the forecast for all three has improved, as of Tuesday morning.
And that improvement has carried into Wednesday.
We have some very healthy numbers in all of the terrestrial races at the five-day stage, though.
I’ve done the double-entries below, and whoever decided to put on a 1m6f 4yo+ fillies Group 3 at York and a 1m4f 4yo+ fillies’ Group 3 at Haydock, within 17 minutes of each other on Saturday, pretty much got what they asked for – that is to say double entries galore.
Nine are in both races, so dead as a dodo for ante-post betting, surely.
You’d readily forgive any bookmakers who refuse to price them up, though I am sure some will soldier on.
Anyway, Tuesday morning domestic duties have been done, so here is my take on all the ITV Saturday races.
Brevity ruled in places.
After all, who bets ante-post at Chester?
It is now good to soft, good in places, at Haydock
Only three firms (effectively two) have priced this 6f handicap up, and I don’t think they will see much trade.
The going is heading towards soft at Haydock if you fancy a bet, then – with 42 entries for a maximum field of 17, there will probably be plenty balloted out here – but I don’t.
The massive amount of double-entries are below – and be aware that three horses are set to run on Thursday.
Betting ante-post in a 7f handicap at Chester is not for me; a bad draw on Thursday and it is not a big price your horse doesn’t eat up on Saturday morning.
Effectively, only two firms have priced this up.
No Half Measures, Two Stars and Jasour are vying for favouritism, with the former just edging it at 3s at the moment.
That looks fair enough, even though she was disappointing in the Palace House on her return (connections said the ground was too quick)..
But the expected softer conditions will suit her better here, and I’d agree she is probably the one to beat on her deep ground Group 3 win and Abbaye fifth, from a high draw, at the back-end.
Even when I have the full facts in front of me – final field, ground, draw, pace map, jockey etc – I need a compelling reason to get involved in big-field sprint handicaps, so nothing doing here for now.
Nor with the bookies either, as very few have priced this up.
That said, the ground-versatile Jm Jungle is [9/2] favourite and I wouldn’t argue with that, given his current form and his body of work at York.
As I mentioned in the intro, this is double-entry madness, with 10 of the 20 in here entered in having alternative engagements (mostly in the 1m6f York race below), so I don’t really think you can touch those from an ante-post perspective.
So I was rather surprised when one of the 10, Beautiful Love, was put in as short as [13/8] by the Flutter boys, though the Entain mob went a more realistic [11/4].
You’d have to say she is more likely to come here for this 1m4f contest (she has never raced beyond that trip) and she is the form filly, coming off the back of a distant second to See The Fire in the Middleton – she carries a 3lb penalty here, as does Divina Grace, with Sioux Life carrying a 5lb burden – but I have a strict no double-entry tipping policy, ante-post.
This is an open Group 3 and, as the race is named after his late father-in-law Lester Piggott, I imagine a few will focus in on William Haggas’s Chorus, a 14s chance.
Haggas won this race in 2022 and 2023, and saddled a [4/1] joint favourite fourth last year, but Chorus needs to improve significantly to get into the mix here.
But she is entitled to come on for her modest reappearance run at Goodwood and ended last season with a good win over this trip at Newmarket, so who knows?
She is certainly bred to be a lot better than a 94-rated filly (she is a half-sister to Kemari and Klondike, the latter being a 110-rated horse of Haggas’s) and she doesn’t have an option at York or anywhere else.
It’s clearly a tricky race to call at this stage and the Irish have six entries, with Paddy Twomey having two, and everything he sends anywhere has to be given the utmost respect (neither his Bubble Gum or Purple Lily are entered elsewhere at the moment – Irish weekend entries are to come on Tuesday afternoon).
Estrange was into favouritism at 3s by just midday on Tuesday though. That could be going-led, as she is two from two on soft ground. It would have taken him very little to see the 6s and 5s becomes 3s, however.
The lightly-raced Goodwood winner Shaha looks a fair price at 8s in a few places (that didn’t last too long, and she is 6s tops in a place now, and a general 4s and [9/2].
Ante-post markets move for buttons.
Ten of the 14 in here are double-entered (most of them in the Haydock race), so that leaves us – or rather me – with Allonsy, Jane Temple, Sueno and Term Of Endearment to choose from ante-post.
Only four firms (understandable) have priced this up and Term Of Endearment is top at [7/2], Sueno is 5s, Jane Temple is 16s and Allonsy is 20s.
The Gosdens are responsible for two of those four, and Ryan Moore is jocked up on Sueno, but I prefer Jane Temple at the prices.
Big John doesn’t worry about ruining handicap marks, so he may well throw the 89-rated Jane Temple into the mix here, and she certainly looked impressive when winning under the welter burden of 10st 9lb at Kempton last time.
She would be going up to 1m6f for the first time here if she runs, but that wouldn’t trouble me on her run-style, and the Gosdens used that Kempton race as a springboard for a subsequent Listed race winner in the past.
Indeed, the 2024 winner of that Kempton race was a certain Scenic, a [7/2] chance in this..
Backing Jane Temple now is risky, as the Gozzas may rely on Sueno (and they also have her owner/stablemate Danielle, a [5/1] chance, in here, too) but she would interest me on the day if running, albeit at a reduced price.
Benoit De La Sayette has just been put up on her it seems, but I’d be loathe to read too much into early jockey bookings.
By the way, Beautiful Love and Divina Grace carry 3lb penalties.
Only Myal and Witch Hunter have other options this week, so we could even get close to a maximum field of 14 here (if the ground doesn’t get too testing).
The market is dominated by Audience, Kinross (carries a 5lb penalty first time up) and Alyanaabi, with 10s bar those. The Big Three range from 3s to 4s.
Audience is the clear form horse and has form on soft (3s in a place, and as low as [6/4]), but maybe Spycatcher is the overpriced one in here at 10s, available in three places (though admittedly the same bookmaking group, so when one price goes, the other two will probably follow tout de suite).
The more rain that falls from hereonin the better for him (and plenty more is due), and he showed his well-being with a Doncaster win on his return in March (weekend Curragh Group 2 winner James’s Delight in fifth, for what it is worth).
He is arguably better at 6f but he has won over, and stays, 7f plenty well enough and the 10s about him is probably the pick of the prices in this heat.
I haven’t had a bet yet though, as that two-month absence since Donny is a slight concern (though he may have just been waiting for the rain).
Going: : Good to soft, good in places
Going stick: 6.8, Thursday 8am
Thursday morning course update: 6.6mm Tuesday. 2mm Wednesday. 7mm overnight. Dry outlook Thursday, Friday and Saturday, sunny spells.
Forecast: Light showers now Thu-Sat
Rails: All races will be run on the Outer track.
Going: Good, good to firm in places
Going stick: 7.1, Wednesday, 4.15pm
Thursday morning course update: Recent rainfall of 2.8mm since midnight to 6am Thursday, making 16.4mm in the last 7 days. Currently overcast with light rain/drizzle.Met Office forecast; current rain to clear during the morning leaving a dry, cloudy afternoon, sunny intervals into the evening, 19 degrees. Friday – a dry cloudy morning with sunny intervals in afternoon, 20 degrees. Dry and bright with sunny intervals for racing on Saturday, 22 degrees.
Forecast: Light showers now Thu-Sat
Going: Good to soft (remarkable considering 33m in last 48 hours)
Going stick: 7.0, Thursday 7am
Thursday morning course update: 8.8mm rain over last 24 hours. 42.6mm over last 7 days. A drier, breezy and mild outlook from today with a low risk of patchy light showers tomorrow morning. Raceday itself is currently forecast to be dry with sunny intervals, highs of 21’C and a 14mph South Westerly breeze. Expect it to dry back if the given forecast is correct.
Forecast: Light showers now
1.48pm Haydock (42 entries; 17 maximum): Arctic Thunder, Baba Reza, Bosh, Cajetan, Change Sings (short-head second at Windsor on Monday), Eye Of Dubai, Glorious Angel (confirmed to run at Carlisle on Thursday) , Hyperfocus (confirmed to run at Carlisle on Thursday), Irish Nectar (confirmed to run at Carlisle on Thursday), King’s Lynn, Knebworth, Mostar Dreams, Musical Touch, Rock Melody, Sophia’s Starlight, Supreme King, Trilby
2.10pm Chester (26; 13): Benacre, Eye Of Dubai, Lexington Belle, Myal, Probe, Socialite (won at Windsor on Monday), Witch Hunter
2.23pm Haydock (14;17): Balmoral Lady, Democracy Dilemma, Dream Composer, Jakasaro, Miss Attitude, Sophia’s Starlight
2.40pm York (23; 22): Balmoral Lady, Democracy Dilemma, Dream Composer, Fine Wine, Habooba, It Just Takes Time, Jakararo, Miss Attitude, Muker, Nad Alshiba Green, Trilby
2.58pm Haydock (20; 17): Bay Of Sanibel, Beautiful Love, Crystal Flyer, Danielle, Divina Grace, Enfranchise, Our Golden Phone, Panthera, Satin, Scenic
3.15pm York (14; 20): Bay Of Sanibel, Beautiful Love, Crystal Flyer, Danielle, Divina Grace, Enfranchise, La Isla Mujeres, Panthera, Satin, Scenic
3.33pm Haydock (19;14): Myal, Witch Hunter
1.15pm Cheltenham – 16/1 It’s Easy is perhaps too big but this is difficult This…
1.15pm Cheltenham – 33/1 Stoner’s could be an each-way choice My first instinct here was…
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