TONY CALVIN: AN absolutely fascinating 16/1 chance in the 5f handicap today – and a morning betting update in here

4.10pm – A Truly staggering headgear angle into this 16/1 poke

Truly Glamorous is a fascinating contender in this 18-runner 5f handicap – and a betting one at 16s and 14s each-way too, despite being 2lb out of the handicap, which is a bit of a ballache admittedly.

Trainer Christopher Mason (sorry, if you prefer to be called Chris) is having a golden spell in June and July , with nine winners from 30 runners in those summer months, and his Glamorous Breeze ran a cracker when a ¾ length third of 23 in a 5f handicap here on Tuesday.

Truly Glamorous has really picked up his feet this season after joining Mason from John O’Shea, winning twice of late, but he nearly lost them at Newbury last time en route to a comprehensive success.

He veered right when taking it up a furlong out and was lucky not to hit the deck himself – granted, he doesn’t want to become unbalanced at Goodwood – so Mason has put first-time cheekpieces on him.

And he knows what he is doing.

Just wow

That is where his chance gets fascinating.

You can see below that Mason has a great record when applying initial cheekpieces – four winners from 13, with two seconds and a third – and the horse’s family, all trained by Mason, excel in this headgear.

In fact, Truly Glamorous’ dam won this very race in first-time cheekpieces in 2020.

That amazing angle continues when you dig further into the dam’s siblings; Glamorous Breeze won 10 times in cheekpieces (including at the first time of asking at Chepstow in 2021), with Glamorous Crescent also winning in them, as did Forever Glamorous at Ffos Las at the end of last month (again, when they were initially applied).

Just wow.

Now, he clearly has his work cut out from effectively an 8lb higher mark from Newbury but that was a strong race for the 0-70 grade (the placed horses both ran well in defeat next time, with the third only beaten a neck at 22/1 from stall 12 at Chester) and, given his pedigree, surely there remains plenty of potential from an effective, lowly mark of 74 here (his dam was rated 100 at her peak), especially given this is only his ninth start.

A midfield draw in eight is fine, and I’d be hopeful he can be competitive in this 18-runner sprint handicap, albeit that hike in the handicap and that Newbury jink advise some degree of caution.

But 16s and 14s each way look very tempting each-way to me, and I have bet accordingly. For the first time this week.

MORNING UPDATE (6.32am)

I know he has a fascinating profile – and we are all suckers for a headgear stat, aren’t we? – and I have had a pretty good go at 16s and 14s but I’m rather surprised to see Truly Glamorous trading at a general 8s this morning and with a last-traded price of 8.0 on Betfair as at 6.30am.

I’ll look to lay off a fair bit of my bets around those prices thanks, and have a largely freebie on him from a win-only perspective. I’ll keep the places on my side.

He surely can’t get any/much shorter.

Naana’s Shadow is into 6s favourite and shortening.

THE REST OF THE ITV RACES

1.50pm – I genuinely have no betting opinion – or clue

As I tend to find with 3yo handicaps, I thought this 14-runner 1m2f contest was nigh on impossible, and I won’t be having a bet.

I could waffle on but I don’t see the point – this is all yours.

MORNING UPDATE (6.42am)

Ciarrai Abu was well tipped up by His Majesty’s Press on Wednesday evening and he is into 4s from 11/2 for a stable swinging into a bit of form.

Dial Me In was 14s and 12s yesterday morning, was nibble early afternoon and is now into 15/2 for Yon Baby Face.

2.25pm – A 25/1 outsider could outrun his odds but the favourite may be special

I won’t keep you long with this 6f Group 2 Richmond Stakes, you’ll be pleased to know.

Like most people, I was rather impressed by Flann Sunna winning at Ascot last time but he is just a general [15/8] and [7/4] chance, up in grade – 2s with one outfit , which may be coming under pressure – and those shortish could well over-estimate his chance in this loftier company.

But of course he can win, and win well.

Jaan Ki Tukri also steps up markedly in grade but this [25/1] chance impressed The Time Bandits – the Racing Post tells me he broke the course record – when winning by a street (well more of a cul-de-sac) in first-time cheekpieces at Ffos Las last time and he could outrun those odds.

And he was beaten under 4 lengths in the Coventry prior to that Welsh venture as a 125s poke.

MORNING UPDATE (6.51am)

Two things here. One correct call, one very incorrect one.

I knew Entain’s 2s wouldn’t last about Flann Sunna. 

But I didn’t at all expect the [15/8] and [7/4] about him to be devoured and he is a general 5/4 poke now (11/8 in one place).

But be aware – the silly morning shortening by sleeping bookmakers is in evidence once again as he is 2.7 on Betfair (usual liquidity concerns apply). He is likely to drift back out.

Man’s Best Friend, 10s on Tuesday afternoon, is into 6s, and there are nibbles around for Jaan Ki Tukri, with the 25s being taken.

3pm – Too much guesswork for me but Enceladus is the one to beat

The all-important seven in this 1m4f Group 3 courtesy of Venetian Lace, the highest-rated in here but beaten the small measure of 37 lengths last time, being put in the race late on Tuesday morning

I bet the all-powerful Hong Kong World Pool were happy, as seven runners (regardless of any subsequent non-runners) is their minimum for paying out three places (7-20 runners).

It is entirely possible that 14s poke Venetian Lace comes back to form and runs a race here as the Johnston training operation are well known for yo-you performers, and this does look a wide-open race.

On a similar point, Derby fourth Bay Of Brilliance is the [11/4] favourite after being beaten 45 lengths in the German equivalent last time, though I am not entirely sure you can solely blame the ground/ploughed field there. Timeform called it soft at Epsom and soft at Hamburg.

Either way, he has a big point to prove here after that run and I’d rather have Enceladus on my side at the same price, as an improving stamina-assured 3yo whose King George V handicap win at Royal Ascot was given a fair old boost by runner-up Al Azd last week.

But it’s an easy race to swerve with fellow progressive 3yos such as Geryon in here, Sahara King looking to return to form after being gelded, and I wouldn’t rule out Shaihaan either or even 22s rag Magnetude running a decent race from the front.

Too much guesswork.

MORNING UPDATE (6.55am)

This is all about Enceladus – at the moment.

He was [11/4] in a place yesterday afternoon but is into a general [7/4] and [15/8] in a place, which looks short enough.

FWIW , he is 3.15 on Betfair.

3.35pm – It’s all about Soul – and a double-cop

Without the pacemaker in here, I wondered whether the Gosdens would consider reverting to forcing tactics on Friendly Soul, but there is no need now that Ballydoyle have slotted in Moments Of Joy ( I have no issue with 98-rated filly being in here as a pacemaker, as she is no superstar, past or present).

Anyway, regardless, I think the Gozza’s 5yo is the stand-out bet in this five-runner affair at the generally available [7/2] – and she certainly deserves a win after her luckless 2026 campaign so far.

She had a long time off the track after winning the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera in October 2024 and she then had the misfortune (it actually turned out be very good fortune that she wasn’t seriously injured) of stepping into that hole at Haydock on her return.

And then she went to Royal Ascot and endured an horrendous run in finishing third to Blue Bolt; with a fair wind she would have give the progressive winner plenty to think about.

She should be more [5/2] then [7/2] here, and I can’t have Diamond Necklace being as short as [4/7] and top at [4/6] in place.

Sure, she is a dual French Classic winner but I don’t think she is all that in Group 1 UK terms (I sound like a right little Englander there and could be bang wrong).

I doubt I’d be rushing to back her at evens personally, and I have already laid her at an average of 1.72 on Betfair as well as backing Friendly Soul.

I have See The Fire and Botagoz running for me with that lay too, so I’m pretty keen on that angle.

A double-cop could be in store here then – and hopefully not a double-whammy, as that’ll be very costly.

MORNING UPDATE (6.59am)

Diamond Necklace is very weak on the exchange (1.88) and 4/5 fixed odds.

Friendly Soul is a general 5/2 chance but one firm are sticking their neck out at 3s for the time being (that won’t last).

As I always say though, early, early days.

Or, as us early-risers like to think, nearly midday…

BEST BETS

Truly Glamorous at 16s each-way in 4.10pm (available in two places; general 14s fine – get the best place terms your accounts allow)

Friendly Soul at 7/2 in 3.35pm (where I have also laid Diamond Necklace at 1.72 average)

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

GOODWOOD

Wednesday evening watering update:

“We are going to put 5mm down the straight and we will put some water on the bends again. I will have a look at them before we decide what we are going to do – it will be somewhere between 3mm and 5mm. That is to maintain what was lost today and to keep the bends safe”

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

Going Stick: 7.4, Thursday 7.50am

33.9% soil moisture

Rails: False rail will be in place on the Top and Bottom Bends and on the Straight to 3.5f leaving a cutaway. All remaining false rail will be removed for Friday and Saturday.

Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f, 1m; Centre 1m3f & 1m4f; Outside Rest; Inside

THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: 0.4mm rain Sunday. A dry & settled outlook 25-29C for the week. Current weather details from our weather station available here; https://bit.ly/2E6dYhB

WATERING: 10mm to the Straight Monday 15mm to the Round Course Tuesday 12mm to the Straight Wednesday 10mm to the Round Course Thursday 7.5mm to the Straight on Friday 5mm to Round Course on Saturday 8mm to the Straight on Sunday 5mm Mile to 6f Monday 5mm to the Round Course Tuesday Night 5mm to Straight and 3.5mm to bends Wednesday night

Weather forecast:  Dry and sunny, 25-27 degrees

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STAT – (no balloted out horses)

Christopher Mason cheekpieces; Truly Glamorous, 4.10pm; 4-13, also 2 x 2nds and a third, too (since 20-18)

3.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.50pm Goodwood: Evanesco (drawn 5), Gonna Fly (11), Lion Of Alba (8), Lean d’Aislingean (1)

2.25pm Goodwood: Adaay Of Scarlett (2), Hickory Lad (9), Jaan Ki Tukri (5), Where Love Lives (1), Man’s Best Friend (4)

3pm Goodwood: Magnetude (5), Shaihaan (2), Bay Of Brilliance? (3), Venetian Lace (1)

3.35pm Goodwood: Moments Of Joy (pacemaker – 2), Friendly Soul? (5)

4.10pm Goodwood: Schrodingers Cat (4), Baker Blue (13), Naana’s Shadow (2), Dazzling Haze (16), Miss Yechance (6), Pilu (9), Old Is Gold (1), One And Gone (12), Quantum Power (10), Kolkata Knight (18), Truly Glamorous (8), Shes Got A Brother (14)

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed, form going into Thursday)

Good:  Andrew Balding (excellent), Ralph Beckett, John and Thady Gosden (excellent),  Joseph O’Brien (excellent from such a big sample), James Owen (excellent), Roger Varian (excellent),Karl Burke (flying along), Jack Channon, Lemos De Souza (2 from 6), Christopher Mason, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Tom Clover (5 from 15), Harry Eustace, Richard Hannon

Fair:  Clive Cox, David O’Meara (double on Wednesday), Ian Williams, Ger Lyons,  Simon and Ed Crisford, Brian Meehan,  Hugo Palmer, Eve Johnson Houghton, Grant Tuer, Katie Scott, Roger Teal (no winners),  Donnacha O’Brien, Michael and David Easterby, Aidan O’Brien, Dylan Cunha (turning a corner)

Moderate: Charlie Johnston (rather welcome 33-1 winner on Thursday),  Charlie Pike, Richard and Peter Fahey, Robert Cowell, Tom Dascombe, Gemma Tutty (9-2 Monday winner though), Sean Woods (smallish sample), David Menuisier, Peter Chapple-Hyam (sample of five)

Don’t know: Oli Rix (1 winner from 3 runners, and a second, so obviously good from tiny sample), Phillip Makin