By Tony Calvin - 9 October 2025
Whenever I see a short-priced horse that I like and fancy to win, I tend to move straight on.
And that is the case with the [5/4] available about Brussels, the [11/8] having been taken on Wednesday.
He is a general evens poke, and as low as [10/11] in places.
I suspect Ballydoyle were becoming a touch disappointed/frustrated with him since his debut success in May but he took a giant stride forward when second in the Middle Park last time, coming out best of those to have raced prominently, too.
Getting 2lb from the rapid Flying Childers winner Revival Power, [10/3] here, a reproduction of his Newmarket run really ought to see him win this – for all Tim Easterby’s flashing blade could have Brussels’ punters worried approaching the final furlong or so, when presumably still in a clear lead.
Brussels should be reeling him in from thereon in, though.
But it’s a no-bet race for me.
I’ll not be falling off my chair if Northern Express or Bopedro win this 1m handicap, and their respective prices of 5s and 8s underline their solid chances, but I only had eyes for one horse in this race when I saw the final field on Wednesday.
That may sound a touch daft given this is clearly a competitive 17-runner handicap, but for me Leadman has been a winner in waiting for a while.
Of course, continuing to make excuses for horses is a route to the poorhouse but he is now only 3lb higher than when beating Up The Pace and Two Tribes convincingly on the July course in midsummer and this test looks ideal for him.
We don’t know how he will react to the first-time hood but if the horse gets cover in a strongly-run race here (I had three pace angles) then he surely has a huge each-way chance at the very least.
I have no opinion on the seemingly highly-rated 5lb claimer Warren Fentiman on board (he has ridden an impressive 44 winners this season but only at a strike rate of nine per cent, so he wouldn’t knock your socks off there) , but I don’t think he is any negative here, for sure.
Leadman is a tricky character no doubt though, and Danny Tudhope would probably like another go at the three rides he has had on him since August, most obviously when just failing to get up at Newbury that month off a 2lb higher than this.
You can make an excuse (yes, I know) for the horse on all his last four starts, and he saw far too much daylight at Newmarket last time, for which he got dropped a generous 3lb in one hit.
If it all falls right for him (yes, I know), I’ll be very disappointed if I am not getting my each-way money back at the very least (check your accessible bookmakers for the best place and price terms there – that’s for you to decide and not for me to cherry-pick from isolated spots).
His best form has come over 7f to date, but I don’t have any problem with him over this extra furlong. He should have finished a lot closer over course and distance in the Clipper in August, and the drying ground is very much in his favour.
I’ll take my chances with him but I do think Northern Express at 5s each way is a fair bet, too.
And I’ll be having him very much onside as a decent saver here; this is the lowest mark he has raced off since a third in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2023, and he has come down 9lb this season despite a decent run of performances.
This three-time course winner, second in this race in 2023, is very much handicapped to win again.
Remember, it is not an each-way bet to nothing though, as that makes no sense.
Unless you think it will be out of the places, that is.
An each-way bet for nothing perhaps, at a push.
This 7f Group 3 for juvenile fillies is much tougher to call than the Newmarket opener, but I really hope Tom Dascombe takes it with his Senorita Vega, the most experienced in the line-up with seven starts under her belt.
Dascombe has had a quietly impressive season with 18 successes at a strike rate of 13 per cent (11 of those coming in 2yo contests) and his Senorita Vega did the business in style off a mark 82 in a Newbury nursery in a decent time last month.
The style of the success and form looks strong enough to warrant her step up in grade here – the runner-up hasn’t run since but the third won a nursery by 2 lengths next time out – and I didn’t understand the opening quotes of 33s on Wednesday with 10 bookmakers.
That was taken by the evening, and the remaining piece of 25s and 22s on Thursday morning didn’t last long, nor did the 20s and 18s.
Up until 9.15am, in fact.
The 16s went soon after, and she is now a general 12s (with 14s lingering in a place).
That 14s went at 5.39pm.
Her form and time claims suggests the market move/correction is warranted, and her dwindling price is still heading South (or is is North?), for all I expect her to drift back out when the meaningful money arrives on Friday.
For all a lot of these will rate much higher in the future given their unexposed profiles, none are particularly scary form-wise for her at the moment.
Juvenile races are not usually my favourite betting mediums, so I won’t be that busy on the betting front over the next two days, but what immediately struck me about this race was how ridiculously winnable this 100k pot was (50 bags to the winner).
I appreciate this EBF-backed final has a strict eligibility criteria but none of the horses are rated higher than 89 (two have yet to be given a mark) and it’s a wide-open contest at the weights.
However, I’d agree with Ghost Mode heading the market at [3/1] – the [10/3] was taken on Thursday morning – as he really was impressive in bolting up in a good time at Chester last time, and he could easily be another big winner for Andrew Balding on a track where he has excelled this season.
But I can let this race go without a bet.
Real American, once of those not to have been given a mark, has been nibbled at and is into a general 5s and [9/2], with [11/2] in a place.
Karl Burke is not a bad man to have on your side in any 2yo race and he sends out Real American just nine days after a narrow, but easy, win on his Catterick debut at the start of the month.
The form is lowly but this Ten Sovereigns half-brother to the stable’s 113-rated sprinter Marshman is clearly one to note.
Magic Stone is a NR as at 9.50am on Thursday (lame).
A tricky five-runner 7f Group 2 to call, and a pretty underwhelming one, in truth.
I’m not sure Cosmic Year was as unlucky as it looked at Goodwood last time and he isn’t a horse I have ever warmed to, despite his second to Field Of Gold in the Irish 2,000 Guineas making him the form horse on paper in this.
But do I think he is worthy of an official mark of 115?
No.
If I were an on-course bookmaker, he’d be one I’d look to have a loser.
But, as a backer, I have no punting opinion in this.
Another race I don’t have a betting opinion on, not helped by the dead-eight deterring an early each-way play (for me at least).
I could waffle on but I will leave pretty much leave it there.
However, it is no surprise to see William Haggas’ Mukhtalif, running in first-time cheekpieces here (see headgear stats below), head the betting at [11/4].
He races off 81 after a narrow maiden win at 7s-on at Newcastle last time – Haggas loves to give his horses experience/get them handicapped at lesser tracks – and this one just happens to be by Sea The Stars out of the stable’s 109-rated Pretty Polly winner Maqsad.
Plenty of pedigree handicap upside there then….
Aidan O’Brien is having one of his “Spaghetti” moments in this Group 1 Fillies Mile, throwing four at the wall and hoping one sticks.
Moyglare winner Precise is clearly the most obvious contender of this quartet, but I wouldn’t be any hurry to back her at [7/4], and I thought stablemate Composing was being more than a touch dismissed at 33s and 25s on Wednesday.
In fact, those odds made no sense.
Yes, after-timing, I know.
As ever, the market has corrected itself at the 24-hour stage, with the 20s and 16s and 14s also following suit, and she is into 12s now.
That’s fair (and far) enough and probably close to her price, even if that is hard to judge for any horse in these uncertain betting times.
She actually went off at evens to win the Moyglare before disappointing in fourth (beaten just 2 ¾ lengths) after making the running into a headwind, and she ran to a lesser level when third in the Goffs Million on soft ground last time.
Both were forgivable then and maybe a return to a quicker surface here will see her reproduce the form of her emphatic Group 2 win on good ground, under today’s jockey, in August.
It is just a matter of whether the early vanishing value, to undoubted pennies, has left any betting remnants to pick at.
Maybe not.
Firstly, it’s a very poor show from Chepstow not telling punters how much they have watered.
It’s simply not on.
They must be putting on plenty, too (see going stick readings below).
Anyway, ITV ease in gently with their coverage of the 2025-26 National Hunt season -if they have already broadcast a jumps race in the current campaign, I apologise (actually they probably have at Market Rasen, but my memory fails me) – with this nine-runner veterans’ 2m7f131yd handicap chase.
A lot will obviously depend on how tuned up the oldies are and, with that in mind, the recent form of Mickey Bowen (a staggering 41 winners in this campaign already) and Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies could be key.
And Gordon Elliott, who runs Tullybeg here, is also in pretty good nick at home.
I don’t have a betting opinion, especially as the pace map below didn’t throw up any obvious clues as to who will get the lead.
The late betting may, though….
I had another look at this on Thursday morning and the ridiculously good form of the Bowen yard would have me leaning towards the race-fit Courtland at 4s but I am not getting involved myself.
Daiquiri Bay looks well worth an each-way play at 9s and 8s after disappointing on soft ground at Ascot last time (though Timeform called it good to soft, to be fair).
I am happy to cast that run aside – as well as the ground, perhaps the two-week turnaround wasn’t ideal either – and focus on his third in the Melrose off just a 1lb lower mark than this.
Following on from solid runs in big-field handicaps at Royal Ascot (finished off well over 1m4f from the rear) and Glorious Goodwood (the 1m2f trip was too short), that York run over 1m6f was a cracker over a distance that perhaps stretched his stamina late doors.
Back to 1m4f here on quicker ground, I’d be keen enough on his chance, with trainer Alan King (who won this race with Trueshan, off 93, in 2019 – yes, he shat in by 3 3/4 lengths) continuing to tick over well enough on the Flat.
That York run on officially good to firm ground was very solid, if the form is a little mixed admittedly, with the fifth is actually rated 15lb higher now.
I’d like to think he is a cracking each-way bet here at 9s and 8s.
Bet where you can at the best price-place combo.
The youngsters get their turn in the 80k 2m3f110yd Persian War Hurdle.
I was a little (well, very) surprised to see Queensbury Boy range from [5/4] to [13/8] in the early Wednesday betting – the [13/8] actually went – as he has not been since blowing out at Punchestown in May and he certainly does not tower over his seven rivals form-wise.
I wouldn’t be interested in [5/2] myself.
The price may have something to do with the interview owner David Maxwell (who has retired from the saddle and is sending 17 of his horses to be sold at Tattersalls on October 24) gave the sales company, and was reproduced in the Racing Post last week.
Maxwell said: “Harry really likes him. In fact, when I told him I was retiring he said, ‘but David, I’ve laid him out for the Persian War at Chepstow, please let me go and win this race’.
“After quite a bit of arm-twisting and promising me he’s going to win, he’ll run in the Persian War. For those reading before the Persian War, lump on. For those reading afterwards, I hope I gave you good advice. He’s a very nice horse and he’ll definitely jump a fence.”
Cat. Out. Of. Bag.
If you believe the talk, that is.
And obviously everyone is expecting a significant jockey upgrade on Maxwell’s former rides this season, something we can expect to read in every single tipping piece this term (a likely overbet strategy perhaps).
Queensbury Boy has drifted back out to [13/8] in a place on Thursday morning but he really does have a lot more on his plate than those odds suggests, and surely he will lengthen further.
Even though he has a 5lb penalty for his Galway Listed win I thought Sticktotheplan was a fair enough price at 5s and the pick of the current odds, but this looks a deep and competitive renewal and I’ll probably sit it out.
Good luck on Friday; my two plays are not obvious shorteners, but I like them.
Back tomorrow morning.
Leadman at 8s each way in 1.30pm at York (I am having a decent each-way saver on Northern Express, too – he is available at 5s)
Daiquiri Bay at 9s and 8s each way in 3.30pm at Newmarket
(Get the best price-place betting combos your active accounts allow – but that is up to you to sort….)
GOING – Good, good to firm in places
Going stick: 6.7, Thursday (was 7.4, Wednesday 7am) – fair change for 3mm on a dry day
Rails: Stands Side Course in Use
Stalls: Centre
Thursday morning course update: Dry past 24 hours. Forecast: Dry and cloudy with the odd sunny spell, max daytime temps of 16c
Weather: Dry
Watering: 3mm applied on Wednesday.
GOING – Good
Going stick: 5.4, Thursday 8.30am
Going stick readings in Home Straight: Far Side – 4.8; Centre – 5.3; Stands Side – 4.8.
Moisture meter reading: 37%
Wind speed and direction at 1.30pm Friday: Westerly 11mph gusting to 22mph
Rails: Planned rail position: Friday rail in innermost position. Saturday rail position tbc
Stalls: 5f and 6f – Centre. Remainder – Inside rail.
Thursday morning course update: Dry overnight and a cool, clear Thursday morning. Recent rainfall of 0.8mm rain Wednesday, 8.8mm in the last 7 days. Met Office forecast: Thursday – dry and mild with sunny intervals, 18 degrees. Friday – dry with sunny spells and a westerly breeze, 17 degrees. Saturday – dry with sunny spells and very light wind, 15 degrees.
Weather: Dry
GOING – Chase: Good; Hurdles: Good to soft
Going stick: Chase: 6.2 (was 6.5, Wednesday; 6.8 Monday); Hurdles: 5.7 (was 5.9 Wednesday; 6.1 Monday) – 7.20am Thursday
Rails: Bends on outer lines, All 2m & 2m3f Races +61yds; 3m Races +97yds
Thursday morning course update: 35.6mm Rain Past Week; None since Saturday; Watering in progress to maintain Forecast – Sunny intervals but cloudy at times Thursday 17*, Dry with sunny intervals, light breeze through till racing 17/18*.
Weather: Dry
Watering: Watering to maintain. No amount specified.
1.15pm Newmarket: Revival Power (drawn 2), Aspect Island (1), Argentine Tango (5), Our Cody (3), Wor Faayth (9)
1.30pm York: Platoon (15), Northern Express (11), Isla Kai (8)
1.50pm Newmarket: Coming Attraction (5), Mubasimah (6), Senorita Vega (4)
2.05pm York: Advertised (14), Ghost Mode (2), Advance Twentyfive (13), Born A Star (8), Sagremor (3), Gold Dawn (12) – Magic Stone is a NR
2.25pm Newmarket: Audience (4), Poet Master (1), Scoville (2)
2.40pm York: Castle Stuart (1), Jupiter Ammon (4), Canvas (8), Mukhtalif (6)
2.57pm Newmarket: Composing (9), Evolutionist (7), Legacy Link (4), Moments Of Joy (5), Sugar Island (10), Venetian Lace (8)
3.12pm: Chepstow: Le Milos, Annsam, Lord Accord (Torn And Frayed and Hang In There have made running in past but not of late)
3.30pm: Newmarket: Munsif (7), Dangerman (9), Elsass (11)
3.43pm: Chepstow: Jack Hyde, Kainsbourg, Laravie
Good: Micky Bowen (excellent), Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies, Olly Murphy, George Boughey (double on Thursday), Richard Hughes, Tom Dascombe, John and Thady Gosden (very good), Edward Smyth-Osbourne (small sample), Aidan O’Brien (only fair in strike rate terms), Karl Burke, Harry Charlton, Charlie Appleby. Jamie Osborne, Gordon Elliott, Fergal O’Brien, James Owen
Fair: Dan Skelton, Nicky Henderson (one winner from four runners), Neil Mulholland (two recent winners), Tim Easterby, Eve Johnson Houghton, Michael Bell, Brian Ellison (good for him), Roger Varian, Ed Walker, Andrew Balding (borderline good, as ever this season), Sir Mark Prescott, Joseph O’Brien, William Haggas, Charlie Fellowes, John Berry (borderline moderate from a small sample), Charlie Johnston, Peter Chapple-Hyam (small sample; one winner from four runners). Hugo Palmer, David O’Meara, Coyle and Wood, Michael Dods (edging towards good after a double on on Thursday), Roger Fell (arguably good), Mick Appleby, Jim Goldie (double on Thursday), Nigel Tinkler, Grant Tuer, David Menuisier, Scott Dixon, Dylan Cunha, Alan King
Moderate: Adrian Keatley (though not many runners), Owen Burrows (small sample but moderate for him), Y Barberot, Stella Barclay, Richard Fahey, Ian Williams
Don’t know (small samples): Emma Lavelle (though 3-1 Bath winner on Thursday), Tom Ellis, Evan Williams, Hobbs and White, Harry Derham, Ismail Mohammed
1.15pm Newmarket – 5/4 Brussels should outmuscle these Whenever I see a short-priced horse that…
SATURDAY DETAILS NEWMARKET GOING – Good, good to firm in places Going stick: 6.7, Thursday (was…
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