By Tony Calvin - 8 January 2026
Kempton has passed its 8am inspection.
Warwick and Fairyhouse didn’t, so ITV are now showing five races from Lingfield and two from Newcastle on the all-weather.
Just the eight in this now with initial second favourite Pourquoi Pas Papa finishing a well-beaten second at Exeter on Friday and being withdrawn at 4.56pm on Friday, so Precious Man is now a very short general [1/3] chance.
There are doubts about whether heavy odds-on quotes are attractive though, as he has a 10lb penalty for his French win last summer and he has had a wind op since finishing second to One Horse Town at Cheltenham in November, and the first and third from that race have been humped since.
He clearly shaped with a lot of promise there but a mark of 135 seems pretty punchy to me (it seems ludicrously high, in fact) on the Cheltenham form and time, and this has a nice each-way shape to it IF all eight go.
Taunton winner Wertpol is perhaps the obvious each-way play as he overcame a lot of awkwardness to score on his hurdling debut but the form of that race is questionable and he wasn’t any great shakes on the Flat in Ireland.
I thought King Al shaped okay when fifth to Macktoad and Pourquoi Das Papa on his hurdling debut at Sandown, and this 77-rated 1m2f performer on the Flat could be better suited to better ground and this speedier track here.
The stable could certainly do with a winner but plenty have been running well in defeat, and he strikes me as the each-way bet in here if eight go at the general 12s.
I’ll back him if the price is right once we have a better handle if we are going to get enough runners for 1,2,3 betting.
Just the 12 runners in this 100k euros 2m1f30yd handicap chase, with only five trainers represented (the Big Four, and John Patrick Ryan with Drumgill, so let’s all cheer on the general 8s poke, eh?).
I don’t have any significant handle on Irish handicap chases (that’d be nearer to none, in truth), but you could narrow this down to eight runners if you discount the four from the out-of-form Gavin Cromwell yard, I suppose.
His string have seemed under a cloud for a few months now, despite a fair-ish December (only 10 per cent strike rate then, though).
I actually think the Drumgill-Touch Me Not formline over course and distance last time could play out again here (the second is 6lb better off for 2 ½ lengths, which is why he is half the price), but it’s a hollow assessment, as I am not betting seriously here.
I maybe will chuck a tenner on the reverse forecast though.
If the meeting goes ahead (10am inspection now – see below), that is.
The meeting is now off.
I thought this was a very trappy race, for all we only have six runners for this 3m handicap chase.
There are doubts about the trip with Your Darling and he is not exactly a horse who you could set your watch by – I have no idea what went wrong when he finished last of four on his return at Ascot in November, especially as he goes so well off a break– but I did think 12s was fair enough.
The handicapper could well have over-reacted by dropping him 4lb for that Ascot run (though they tend to give the oldies every chance these days) and there has always promised to be a very good horse in there, for all a lack of consistency has always dogged the sparely-raced 11yo.
Freshened up by a small break (always thought best when fresh), it wouldn’t surprise me if he outran those odds – and he did finish a fair fifth over course and distance in December 2022 – but I haven’t had a bet in this and probably won’t.
Thankfully, all four from the five-day stage stood their ground in this 80k Grade 2, but it is clearly a disappointing turn-out for the moolah.
The class on show is okay though – it’s a tight-knit race with the contenders rated between 151 and 156 – and you’d hope that the 6yo Kalif Dy Berlais could step up to land this pot. Not that he needs to do, being the highest-rated horse in here.
The bookmakers agree unfortunately, and he is a general [8/11] chance.
Paul Nicholls was crestfallen when his horse was beaten 23 lengths behind the upwardly mobile Thistle Ask in the Haldon Gold Cup in November – he was talking him up big-style beforehand as a two-miler – but he has decided to step him up in trip here.
Stamina is a question he has to answer here (his only attempt at 2m4f ended in failure when last of four in the Scilly Isles) but he did look a very good prospect when winning his Grade 1 at Aintree in April.
The price is prohibitive though and I personally would not have course winner Master Chewy as the [15/2] outsider of four in here, for all he carries a 6lb penalty and has hardly ripped it up on his last two starts, although he obviously had no chance in the King George last time and that was a wasted outing.
I could make a case for plenty in here, which is going to make the following sound decidedly muggy.
I couldn’t put you off backing the 4s favourite Lanesborough in this 17-runner 2m5f Lanzarote, though he was a general [9/2] poke when I wrote the first draft of this column on Friday and any lower than 4s would be pushing it in a race of this depth (that 4s is available in just three spots but he is two points bigger win-only on the exchange as at 11am, liquidity constraints admittedly).
I thought he was wildly impressive when hacking up in a good time over an extended 2m at Doncaster last time, after which the handicapper did not miss him by sticking him up 14lb.
However, the 8 ½-length runner-up Williethebuilder is now 9lb higher after winning well here next time (runs in the last), and the step up in trip is expected to show Lanesborough in a better light, too.
There is a lot of 3m stamina in his pedigree, and he poured it on late when winning over 2m3f in soft ground at Warwick in February.
You pick your each-way battles where you can to the best effect but, from what I saw at Donny last time, I’d be pretty surprised if he isn’t in the top four of five, even with a further nod to the depth of the race.
And the cynic in me absolutely loves the fact that Ben Pauling didn’t mention him in his Racing Post stable tour on November 6 (though he was more forthcoming in others).
Which is probably why he was smashed into 5/4 at Doncaster, from 4s in a place at the 48-hour stage, and won laughing at well-handicapped horses.
There has been money around for Just A Rose all week, and she was 22s and 20s in places on Friday afternoon but as low as 14s.
And she is now 10s best (11s in one place, to be accurate), with single figures in most places.
I could fully understand the early defensiveness of some layers as she didn’t shape too badly on her return at Taunton last month – she shaped well, in fact – and she seems well handicapped off 121 on her wide-margin win at that track in January.
And Nicholls wouldn’t put you off her in his Betfair column.
He said: “She will come on massively for her run at Taunton, I said at the time that she would need the run so she will have improved enormously from that. She’s a massive outsider and Harry Cobden will switch to her if Captain Teague doesn’t run.
Off 10st 3lb she has a lovely low weight, she ran okay the other day she just needed the run. She hasn’t been easy to train, doesn’t want the ground too soft and if that’s the case then she’s a big each-way player.”
Captain Teague was pulled out with a knocked joint at 5.16pm on Friday, so Cobden is presumably on board.
He is.
I am not on board with the current price though. I knew the big early prices wouldn’t last, which is why I flagged them on X on Friday afternoon.
Perhaps she drifts back out (currently 16.5 win-only to small sums).
Warwick is abandoned (frozen).
Kempton at 7.11am “Currently -1C and getting colder but we will see what the next hour brings.” They passed their 8am inspection.
Fairyhouse got down to -3 overnight. Frost is back in ground and they are looking again at 10am. Parts of the tracks are currently unfit for racing. Also a yellow fog warning in place until 10am. The meeting is off.
Kempton have passed their Friday inspection but I don’t live that far away and it is baltic out there.
They may not be totally out of the woods just yet. They inspect again at 8am tomorrow, with the course saying they are expecting a frost of -2/-3 overnight.
Warwick now have an 8am inspection on Saturday, too.
Their Friday afternoon update is as follows: “28mm of rain/sleet/wet snow fell last night. Whilst the track is currently raceable, the take-offs of four fences down the back remain frozen as of 1pm, we hope for continued improvement this afternoon, but if that is still the case ahead of racing those obstacles will be omitted tomorrow. Frost covers are being deployed on all take-offs, landings and crossings. With the help of teams from Cheltenham and Stratford we are currently also covering down the hill and along the entirety of the back straight. Temperatures are set to drop to -2c from 4am to 8am tomorrow morning. We will keep you updated as best we can.”
The above doesn’t really make sense: “Whilst the track is currently raceable, the take-offs of four fences down the back remain frozen as of 1pm.”
So it isn’t raceable at the moment then, in the truest sense? (I appreciate you can bypass fences if the bypasses are frost-free).
There is a Met Office yellow ice warning in place for the track until Saturday midday (forecast to be -2 overnight). They could have low sun issues, too.
Both courses have done wonders to get this far but challenges still lie ahead.
Fairyhouse have yet to update their ground on the HRI site on Friday (still nothing there at 6pm on Friday), but they are having a 7.30am inspection.
“We’ve made significant improvement,” Warwick’s clerk of the course Nessie Chanter told the Racing Post on Thursday morning.
“A large proportion of the track is looking good, but there are some areas still a bit frozen on worn ground. So while we are still unraceable, we expect further improvement throughout the day.
“The rain comes at 3pm and it could turn to snow later in the night. Given our height and the fact snow is falling on wet ground will hopefully mean it’s less likely to accumulate. We’ve called an inspection at 2pm to see what we’re left with.”
Warwick’s groundstaff will receive assistance from Cheltenham and Stratford to fleece the track on Friday night, due to low temperatures in the early hours of Saturday.
“Some forecasts say it’ll get quite cold between 4am and 10am, so we’ve got the teams ready to help us cover as much as the track as we can,” Chanter added.
The forecast is pretty grim, as of Thursday morning, though.
The BHA site still says “pending” but a 2.25pm update on the site suggests it has passed, for now at least.
“Windy and Rain. 1mm of rain overnight and a low temp of 0C. 10mm of rain on Wednesday. Forecast: A less cold end to the week with rain, sleet and potentially snow, by Friday afternoon.. Potential for up to 20mm of rain and 3cm to 4cm of snow. Max daytime temp of +5C and min temp of 0C for the remainder of the week.”
They inspect again at 2pm tomorrow, which is probably why it still says pending…
A new BHA rule says that horses are not allowed to run from more than 15lb out of the handicap, so I assume ante-post backers of My Silver Lining, De Legislator and Gold Clermont are entitled to their money back in Saturday’s Warwick Classic Chase, a race that has attracted just nine runners.
It transpires they are effectively balloted out (thanks to James Knight of Entain for clarifying), so ante-post punters are indeed entitled to their money back on all three.
GOING: Good, good to soft in places
Saturday morning course update: Windy. Temperature is now 0C and should improve to +4C. Its a little crispy on top, but that will come out when temperatures recover to +2C. 15mm of rain overnight. 10mm of rain on Wednesday. Forecast: Currently light rain and should clear by 3pm. Frost of -2C or -3C overnight tonight with max daytime temp tomorrow of +3C.
Weather (yr.no latest): Dry and sunny spells on Saturday
GOING: Soft
Going Stick 5.7 on Thu 10:00am
Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture
Rails: We will be running on the INNER hurdle track.
Friday afternoon course update: 28mm of rain/sleet/wet snow fell last night. Whilst the track is currently raceable, the take-offs of four fences down the back remain frozen as of 1pm, we hope for continued improvement this afternoon, but if that is still the case ahead of racing those obstacles will be omitted tomorrow. Frost covers are being deployed on all take-offs, landings and crossings. With the help of teams from Cheltenham and Stratford we are currently also covering down the hill and along the entirety of the back straight. Temperatures are set to drop to -2c from 4am to 8am tomorrow morning. We will keep you updated as best we can.
Weather (yr.no latest): Dry, cold and sunny Saturday (-2 overnight)
10 January: 10am inspection now – -3 overnight and frost is back in ground, and parts of the tracks are unfit for racing. Yellow fog warning in place until 10am.
9 January 4.00pm – There will be a 7.30am precautionary inspection at Fairyhouse tomorrow. The track is currently raceable. Possibility of temperatures dropping to -1 overnight
8 January 7.46am- The ground at Fairyhouse (Main Track – Saturday) is yielding (Hurdle) & yielding, good to yielding in places (Chase). Possibility of 3mm (approx) of rain with temperatures between 1-5 degrees during the day. Temperatures to drop to -1 on Saturday morning rising to 4 degrees through the day. Monitoring forecast. Fairyhouse (Inside Track – Thursday) is yielding to soft. Possibility of 15mm (approx) prior to racing Thursday
Weather (yr.no latest): dry and sunny spells for racing
2.55pm Warwick: My Silver Lining, De Legislator and Gold Clermont
1.15pm Warwick: Pepe Le Moko, Moon Phases (prom), Atreides (prom), Rule Me In (prom), Carrigmoorna Rowan (prom), A Great Excuse?, Le Galli Bier
1.30pm Kempton (just eight runners now): Dissident, Frank Stamper, Wise Counsellor – Pourqoui Pas Papa NR at 4.56pm (other – ran at Exeter on Friday)
1.40pm Fairyhouse: Blood Destiny, Touch Me Not, Inthepocket, Tullyhill?, Western Diego, More Coko
1.52pm Warwick: Doyen Quest, Moon Rocket, The Jukebox Kid, Hollygrove Cha Cha
2.05pm Kempton: Soul Icon?, Your Darling (prom), The Doyen Chief (prom), Welcom To Cartries, Beachcomber, Sea Invasion (prom)?
2.25pm Warwick: Time Interval (prom), Three Pikes (prom), At The Oche, Best Women – Tara Iti NR as at 6.14pm (temperature)
2.40pm Kempton: Kalif Du Berlais?, Edwardstone? (in dim and distant past he has made it)
2.55pm Warwick (just 8 runners now): L’Homme Presse, Mr Vango, Nassalam (prom)?, Myretown, Val Dancer (prom) – Torn and Frayed NR at 11.43am (going)
3.17pm Kempton (just 16 runners now): Double Powerful, Beat The Bat (prom), Goodwin, Came From Nowhere, Just A Rose (prom)? – Captain Teague is a NR as at 5.16pm (knocked joint)
3.32pm Warwick: Lud ‘or, Green Book, Doughmore Boy, Felicie Du Maquis (prom)?, Rubber Ball (prom)?
Good: Gordon Elliott, Dan Skelton, Warren Greatrex, Paul Nicholls, Harry Fry, Chris Gordon, Christian Williams, Olly Murphy, Bailey and Nicholls, Tom Ellis, Ruther Jefferson (very small sample so maybe fair), Alastair Ralph, Mel Rowley
Fair: Willie Mullins, Henry De Bromhead, John Patrick Ryan, Gary and Josh Moore, Alan King (but no winners), Harry Derham, Ben Pauling (17-2 winner on Friday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Anthony Honeyball, Hobbs and White (winner on Friday), Neil Mulholland, Nicky Henderson, Jeremy Scott (8-1 winner on Friday), Russell and Scudamore, Joe Tizzard, Donald McCain, Alex Hales, Stuart Edmunds, James Owen, Fergal O’Brien, Emma Lavelle (winner on Friday), Clive Boultbee Brooks, Neil King
Moderate: Gavin Cromwell, Seamus Mullins, Jamie Snowden (6-4 winner on Friday), Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies , Evan Williams, Venetia Williams
Don’t know: Daniel Steele, Keiran Burke, Tom Symonds, Jane Williams, Ryan Potter, Max Comley, Sarah-Jayne Davies, David Dennis, Robert Stephens, Barry Brennan, Henry Oliver, Sara Bradstock, Samuel Drinkwater
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