TONY CALVIN: THREE to consider on a very quiet betting day (for me, anyway)

BETTING UPDATES ARE IN BOLD AFTER EACH RACE SUMMARY

1.20pm – Here is hoping Act Of Innocence repays the long-term faith

Came From Nowhere is a NR as at 8.29am (going).

Ballyburn faced only six rivals when winning this race two years so for this Turners to get a full field of 22, with three balloted out, is something else.

Helped in no small part by Willie Mullins running six.

You’d have thought the winner of this is going to have to get down and dirty on this longer run-in and, to be perfectly honest, I have no idea of what crosses the line first. Little wonder it was 5s the field when I started to look at this race properly on Monday evening.

It really is a headscratcher, full of unknowns.

Actually, I had one of my very few ante-post bets in this race in January when I backed Act Of Innocence at 16s before his intended race here that month, but he got withdrawn after Holegate.

They stepped him up in trip to go to the 2m3f+ Sidney Banks last month and, while he won nicely enough, I wasn’t bowled over, I have to say.

I am not sold on whether he will be man enough for the job here –  Minella Yoga claimed him late at Newbury, though to be fair he was getting a ton of weight – even though connections are adamant he will stay this extra trip and be competitive, so I am not inclined to press up here now he is trading at a mere 7s and set to get shorter.

He was 16s in a place, and 14s in a few, on Tuesday morning, and I assume double liabilities on the same owner/trainer’s Supreme winner Old Park initiated the immediate shortening from 12s and 11s downwards immediately after that victory.

I have filed this under too difficult.

And that was very easy to do.

Bossman Jack has been the main mover through the day, alongside Act Of Innocence, but No Drama This End has been strong at the top of the market, too.

WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.54am): There were some ridiculous over-reactions to Tuesday’s results during yesterday , and at one point Bossman Jack hit 8.4 on Betfair (now 19.0) and as low as 6s. He was only 8s best in a place around mid-afternoon. AKBets are now top at 14s. No Drama This End is strong at 5/2, as is Sober at 13/2. The outsider for nibbles is Zeus Power, 80s for the lucky few in Stoke yesterday. He has now shortened into 33s and 25s, but top at 40s with AKBets.

2pm – Koktail Divin has a fair chance, but 7s is probably his price and no more

The Big Westerner is a NR at 9.30am (going). Predators Gold is a NR at 10.35am (lame).

A 15-runner Brown Advisory is not that far behind the Turners in the difficulty stakes and, once again, I thought I was odds-on to keep my hand in my pocket when I first started looking.

And so it proved.

It was [9/2] the field on Monday evening and, like the opener, it has incredible depth without there being a stand-out performer.

And Mullins also has six in here, too.

After Kargese won the Arkle, his Leopadstown conqueror Romeo Coolio was immediately cut from 9/2 to 9/4 in a place and as low as 7/4.

Some (over) reaction. He must drift back out.

I saw plenty on X moaning about Henry De Bromhead’s Koktail Divin coming for this Grade 1 instead of going for the Jack Richards off 150, and they will be crying into their drink of choice if he wins this, as he’ll probably have to run to a mark of 160+ given some of the official ratings knocking about going into the race (five of these are rated between 155 and 158).

I can actually see the case for Koktail Divin, but the the general 7s doesn’t entice me at all.

I do like the fact he missed the DRF though, having made all to beat a good horse in Kiss Will pointless over 2m5f at Leopardstown over Christmas, and 3m on decent ground should be well within his compass.

In fact, it could well be his optimum.

But he could run a career-best and finish fourth or fifth; it’s that kind of race. And the same could apply to his stablemate The Big Westerner , who also broke a few hearts by coming here instead of going for the Mares’ Chase. She is the only mare in the race and the 7lb sex allowance could be a big help in such a tight-knit race on ratings

This race is not for me, and I don’t apologise for it.

Level after the first two on the day it is then….unless Act Of Innocence cops the ante-post play.

WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.04am): Romeo Coolio went as low as 13/8 for this after Kargese won the Arkle yesterday , but he is now out to 11/4 tops with AKBets. No other moves catch the eye.

2.40pm – 10/1 Iberico Lord can hopefully put up back-to-back performances

An even bigger field for this 24-runner race (Mullins is slipping as he only has five runners here), but I’d much rather try to unpick a handicap than a Graded race every day of the week.

And I have to have Iberico Lord onside at 10s here. Well, actually I have backed him at the current 12s win-only on the exchange.

There is actually some 10s, seven places. out there.  Clearly, take that if you can.

Let’s start with the negatives. The beaten horses haven’t franked the form of his Kempton win last time and he went up 8lb for it, and he hasn’t strung two races together in the last three seasons.

Not exactly a promising case then for a horse trading towards the top of the market.

But this is a very good hurdler on his day with three big handicap hurdle successes on his CV: a Greatwood, a Betfair Hurdle and that Lanzarote Hurdle win last time.

As I said above, you can pick holes in the Kempton form last time but he won good-looking there by 4 ½ lengths on his first start over this 2m5f trip in a good time (I appreciate he had run over 2m4f previously at Windsor).

A trait of his 2m wins was how strongly he went through the line.

He is unexposed over this trip then, he is a course winner, he is ground-versatile (there is a bit of rain around on Tuesday into Wednesday – see below) and he is clearly coming here in good nick. I was surprised he was only eight, so hopefully there is more in the tank.

Rock looks overpriced at 40s+ on the exchange

I have also had a very small win-only bet at 40s+ on last year’s sixth Beckett Rock (25s fixed-odds but currently trading at 50.0 win-only, for very small sums, as this goes live).

He has been chasing this season and he ran very well when second to a subsequent 20-length handicap hurdle at Gowran last time, not helped by a late mistake, and he returns to hurdles on a fair mark.

He is 1lb lower than when beaten 6 ½ lengths in this race last season, and he may not have got the ideal trip on the inner that day, from off the pace.

He may be the stable second and third string here, but he shouldn’t be trading in the 40/50s.

WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.09am): Forty Coats is the best backed in here that I spotted. 25s yesterday, he is now into 12 and 11s. Jingko Blue is 8s from 12s but this market would have taken relative pennies so far – in fact, probably all of them have. Phoney War so far etc

3.20pm – Cross Country races are an acquired taste

Just the 14 runners in this Cross Country handicap, with six of those out of the handicap. And two were balloted out/eliminated because they were more than 15lb out of the weights (see below), which ensured traditional each-way terms of 1,2,3,4 don’t apply.

Good luck if you make money from these betting mediums, but I don’t even try these days.

Incidentally, I heard a lot of people talking up Desertmore House in the lead-up to the Festival and, even though he is 3lb wrong here, he is the 4s third favourite behind Stumptown and Favori De Champdou.

I guess weight matters less than the ability to operate around the track in this discipline, so maybe that 15lb rule shouldn’t apply in Cross Country races.

But I have no idea – and, indeed, or anything here. Punters should stick in their lanes and this is definitely not mine.

WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.11am): This looks a static market. No changes that I clocked. 

4pm – It is Majborough’s to lose, but we have seen this film before…

I really, really want to find more bets on this card but can anyone see past Majborough if he doesn’t hit one after what he did under forcing tactics in first-time cheekpieces at the DRF?

I know you can attempt to pick holes in that Leopardstown form , saying Marine Nationale didn’t run his race and the third, Found A Fifty, was last of four next time, but he did run them ragged and the time told you it was a bone-fide top-end Grade 1 performance.

Like I said, if he doesn’t clout one, as he did here in the Arkle last year, then it is difficult to see him being beaten and [10/11] is probably a fair price.

But we all saw what happened with stablemate Kopek Des Bordes at the last on Tuesday, didn’t we?

I personally can leave him alone all day long at the price.

People will be making each-way cases for L’Eau du Sud and Il Etait Temps around the 5s mark but they don’t particularly entice me.

In fact, nothing does.

Another easy race to pass on.

WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.21am): Majborough is 10/11 across the board. The current battle for second favouritism is being won by Il Etait Temps at 4s over L’Eau Du Sud at 11/2.

#Ad Alert – AKBets are top price about every horse in here.

4.40pm – Relieved to have found a decent each-way bet at 16s and 14s

A typically open Grand Annual but, in the hope we don’t get too much rain tonight into tomorrow (around 3mm is forecast, more on other sites), I thought Relieved Of Duties was very fairly priced at a general 16s and 14s.

A fair novice hurdler on his day, third in a Moscow Flyer, he comes here after finishing last on his most recent two starts.

But the deep ground wouldn’t have suited him on either occasion (and he ran a fair bit better than the bare form suggests last time, only beating a retreat from the second-last), and the expected better surface will see him in a much better light.

I love the fact that he had a good sighter here in October when second to Anilam, in a fair time, and I think he is decently handicapped off 136 on that effort.

He rates an each way bet at the general 16s and 14s; you can get 16s, five places, and 14s, six places.

Both look attractive each-way bets, so play where you accounts allow. It’s why tipsters shouldn’t tip prices in isolation with one outfit – punters just don’t have live accounts with all firms these days.

WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.30am): Be Aware and Jazzy Matty are into 9/2 and 13/2 respectively, but that’s small beer.  My fancy Relieved Of Duties is into 10s best now, for what it is worth. Break My Soul was 25s in a place early yesterday and is now 14s tops. I imagie very little has been traded on this market so far.

5.20pm – I’m pulling up betting stumps before the Bumper, baby

Charismatic Kid is a NR at 1.45pm (going).

Yet another full field at a Cheltenham meeting where trainers and owners are flocking to have runners and eight were balloted out here (as ever, see below).

But for me bumpers are another medium of horse racing that leave me cold from a betting point of view. Just too little form to go on, and too many unknowns.

I appreciate time students and the sectionalistas occasionally find gold in these hills, but I probably have less opinion about this race than the Cross Country.

For what it is worth, the Racing Post Topspeed man has Gordon Elliott’s 8s chance Keep Him Company miles clear on his Leopardstown win over Christmas, but there has been a lot of chat about Mets Ta Ceinture, available at 14s, in recent days.

Mind you, a lot of the reason was that is because she cost 710,000 euros in November after winning a bumper by 8 lengths the previous month.

Mad money obviously, but as a 4yo filly, she gets a lot of weight all round here and 17lb from the older males.

A silent punting end to a very quiet betting day it is then.

I’ll have another look in the morning when I do my 6am betting sweep.

WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.35am): I couldn’t see anything here, but my eyes glaze over when it comes to bumpers. My one thought is imagine paying 710 bags for a horse, getting 17lb from most of the field here, and see it trading at 16/1….

 

BEST BETS

Relieved Of Duties at 16s/14s each way in 4.40pm (you can get 16s, five places, and 14s, six places – play where you can)

I’ve also backed Iberico Lord and Beckett Rock win-only in 2.40pm

GROUND AND WEATHER DETAILS

(weather forecast March 11th-13th – updated 7am Wednesday)

GOING: Good to soft, good in places

Cross Country: Good to soft, good in places (6.5 Wednesday 9.30am)

GOING STICK : 5.7, Wednesday 9.30am (was 5.5 yesterday)

Rails: Chase rail +6y

Wednesday morning course update: 228mm since January 1st. 1.5mm overnight. Dry forecast today with temperatures of 11 degrees.

WEATHER (yr.no latest, 11am Wednesday):  Dry and sunny Wednesday (maybe a light shower), 4.7mm Thursday, 3.1mm Friday

WATERING: No Watering overnight

 

BALLOTED OUT HORSES (get your money back on these)

1.20pm: Doujadou, It’s Top, Johnny’s Jury

2.40pm: I Started A Joke, Intense Approach, Fiercely Proud,Da Capo Glory , Place de La Nation,  Double Powerfu,l  Galileo Dame , Wendrock ,Welonlyhavedone,  Jump Allen,  Open Secret ,Letos,  Came From Nowhere, Wellington Arch, Roc Dino  Encanto Bruno,  La Pinsonniere,  Coyote Spirit, Intosomethinggood, Glynn Brae, Sainte Lucie, He Can’t Dance, Cave Court, Ike Sport, Lisnagar Fortune, De Temps En Temps, Turndlightsdownlow, Dedicated Hero, Hamsiyann

3.20pm: J’Arrive de L’Est, Escaria Ten (eliminated)

4.40pm: Golden Joy, Ryan’s Rocket, Highlands Legacy, Escapeandevade, Sans Bruit, Classic Maestro, Petit Tonnerre, Javert Allen, Shakeyatailfeather, Dr T J Eckleburg

5.20pm: Heldam, Kilaro, Nimba, Not Without Danger, No Walkover, Saint Invictus, Littlebobbydazzler, Tythingman

 

SUPPLEMENTED

2pm: Now Is The Hour

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Gordon Elliott hood 20-98 (since 2012); Romeo Coolio, 2pm

Gordon Elliott cheekpieces 32-253 (2016); The Yellow Clay and Farren Glory, 2.40pm & The Goffer, 3.20pm

Willie Mullins cheekpieces 12-60 (2016); Chart Topper, 2.40pm

Henry de Bromhead cheekpieces 13-101 (2016); Forty Coats, 2.40pm & Captain Guinness, 4pm

John McConnell cheekpieces 3-67 (2016); Intense Approach (reserve), 2.40pm

John McConnell visor 0-16 (2020); Velvet Elvis, 3.20pm

Laura Morgan cheekpieces 0-0; The Other Mozzie (first time in that headgear for her)

Venetia Williams blinkers 5-100 (2009); Martator, 4.40pm

Paul Nolan hood 2-38 (2012); Release The Beast, 4.40pm

Adrian Keatley hood 1-18 (2014); Diamant Dore, 5.20pm

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.20pm: Act Of Innocence, Ballyfad, Bossman Jack, Fortune Timmy, I’ll Sort That, No Drama This End, Skylight Hustle?, Sortudo?, Walks In June

2pm: Final Demand, Kaid d’Authie, Kitzbuhel, Koktail Divin, Oscars Brother, Predators Gold, Thomas Mor, Western Fold

2.40pm: Farren Glory, Kopeck De Mee, Sony Bill, Give It To Me Oj, Dargiannini, Forty Coats

3.20pm: Vanillier, Conflated, Desertmore House?

4pm: Irish Panther, L’Eau Du Sud?, Majborough, Quilixios, Saint Segal

4.40pm: Touch Me Not, Calico, Rubaud, Be Aware, Vanderpoel, Personal Ambition, Jour d’Evasion, Relieved Of Duties?

5.20pm: Bass Hunter, Charismatic Kid, Love Sign d’Aunou, Of Land And Sea, The Irish Avatar, The Skecher, With Nolimit

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good:  Willie Mullins (four-timer on Thursday – and won the Arkle and Champion Hurdle), Hobbs and White (winner on Monday), Joseph O’Brien, Lucy Wadham, Nicky Henderson (treble on Saturday – and won the Supreme and NH Chase), Ben Pauling (winner on Monday), Rebecca Curtis, Jane Williams (winner on Monday), Dan Skelton (won the Plate on Tuesday),  Tom Ellis, Nicky Richards (another winner on Thursday, and another on Friday – in great form),  Jonathan Sweeney (two runners, two winners), Declan Queally

Fair: Gordon Elliott (12-1 winner on Saturday),  Paul Nolan, Gary and Josh Moore (double at Sandown on Saturday), Henry De Bromhead (15-2 winner on Wednesday but fair/moderate),  Paul Nicholls (winner on Saturday), Gavin Cromwell (maybe turning corner after yet another quiet spell – 4-1 winner on Wednesday and the 12-1 winner of the Leinster National on Sunday), Venetia Williams (winner on Friday), Olly Murphy (winner on Saturday), Nigel and Willy Twiston Davies (winner on Monday), Emma Lavelle, Jeremy Scott,  Evan Williams (or at least it was…), Anthony Honeyball (double on Monday), Henry Daly, Stuart Edmunds, Jamie Snowden, Cian Collins, Harry Fry (double on Friday, and a winner on Monday), Adrian Keatley

Moderate:  Charles Byrnes, John McConnell, Chris Gordon, Harry Derham (won a three-runner race at weekend), Gary Hanmer, Fergal O’Brien, Noel Meade

Don’t know (small samples):  Martin Brassil,  Sarah Humphrey, Mouse Morris, Connor King, Paul John Gilligan, Oliver Signy, Toby Lawes, Thomas Cooper, Lorna Fowler, Enda Bolger (two runners, one 12-1 winner), Laura Morgan (recent winner; three runners), Martin Hassett, Paul Hennessy, Eddie and Patrick Harty, Ian Patrick Donoghue