By Tony Calvin - 24 February 2025
The 120k Morebattle Hurdle is this weekend’s big betting race.
There were 34 in the valuable handicap on Monday morning (£61,728 to the winner – the 2024 County Hurdle scorer Absurde only took home £56,270) and we now have 23, with a maximum field of 18 allowed on the day.
However, we have four significant no-shows, according to the ante-post betting at least, and they were Joyeuse (favourite and best at 3s), McLaurey (second in at 6s), Joyeux Machin (12s) and Wise Eagle (as low as 7s but as big as 12s).
The first pair were the top two in the market, and the other duo featured in the top eight in the betting.
Vischio is the new favourite at [5/1].
More copy to come.
However, the latest going and weather for the three ITV tracks are below, as are the double entries for Saturday’s 10 terrestrial races.
I’m feeling a bit under the weather still – rough as arseholes, in fact – but I’ll crack on where I can.
I may as well start with the Morebattle, in which Vischio is the jolly at prices ranging from 4s to [5/1], and understandably so after she was very impressive at the DRF (the trainer upholding the family honour by winning the race named after his grandparents Paddy and Maureen Mullins), with seemingly plenty left in the tank.
She won that off 119 though and is up to 129 in Ireland, but she has to race off 133 here.
But she is improving at a rate of knots and she is on a mark of 89 on the Flat (and 101 on the all-weather, though maybe that hasn’t been updated recently) – after the Leopardstown win, Emmet Mullins said: “Vischio won a Listed race on the Flat for Dick Donohoe, so if there is a Pattern race early in the season with cut in the ground she will probably take her chance.” – so there is clearly plenty of scope for further progression in this sphere,
It would not shock anyone if she wins this and goes to Cheltenham to try to get the 100k bonus (as the stable’s The Shunter did when winning this in 2021 and then the Plate at the Festival afterwards).
The [6/1] second favourite Tellherthename is not really an ante-post proposition given a few no-shows since his run in the Fighting Fifth in late November, though the drying forecast (see below) is very much in his favour and there is definite upside in his handicap mark of 137.
One for the day if you fancy him.
And there is a very good case to be made for him, too.
There is no point in going through all 23 entries, so I better shit or get off the pot, as they used to say in Line Of Duty.
Florida Dreams has badly disappointed me on his last two starts, even allowing for him making a bad mistake when in contention 2 out at Musselburgh last time, but that hasn’t stopped someone hoovering up all the 16s and 14s about him on Monday.
Looking back at the Musselburgh run a couple of times again this morning, maybe he was coming with a potential winning run there. Watching it live, I thought he was beaten at the time, but the angle at that track can be deceptive and he definitely has a big run in him off 125 if putting it altogether.
Drying ground will be in his favour, and I thought he shaped exceptionally well when fifth in the Greatwood Hurdle off a 2lb higher mark three starts ago.
The 16s and 14s disappearing is a ballache, though. The 12s is available with four firms.
On the face of it, the 2022 winner of this race, Cormier, ran poorly on his return after a lengthy absence at Wetherby last time, but I thought he didn’t shape that badly in the circumstances, especially as that was over an extended 2m3f in the soft, the furthest he has ever gone (granted he ran over 2m2f+ on the Flat at Chester).
If this has been the plan again – and he also ran in this race in 2023, when disappointing – then maybe he can outrun the general odds of [40/1] off a mark of just 124.
He has obviously had his recent problems (that Wetherby run on Feb 1 was his first since July 2023, and I couldn’t find out what caused the absence) but he won this race off 134 in 2022, and then went on to finish seventh off 139 in the County Hurdle.
And I reckon the likely mixture of good and good to soft ground on the day will be fine for him.
The handicapper has certainly played ball as he has cascaded down the handicap hurdle ladder, and it is not as if he is an old man, at nine years old.
Trainer Brian Ellison is undeniably in poor form, but the owners are shrewd cookies (they had the 2018 Greatwood Hurdle winner Nietzsche with the stable) and this could well have been a specific plan.
Even if it hasn’t, then the 40s (available with 10 firms, including AKBets) is probably still too big, even if there is every chance this horse goes off at three-figures on the machine on the day, as there is obviously a lot of guesswork involved.
Aunties and uncles perhaps, but on that golden spell of 2022 form he would be a 10s poke in here, if that.
Neither of that pair are obvious shorteners, but they are the two I was most drawn to, tentatively enough.
Dan Skelton is never one to leave a big pot alone, so it was interesting that he took out Joyeux Machin on Monday and relies on 20s chance Rock House here.
I’ll cover the other nine ante-post races too, if only for a form and betting grounding ahead of the day-of-race markets from Thursday morning onwards.
And hopefully find a stronger bet.
Just the eight entries in this 2m1f handicap chase, and we have three horses that could go elsewhere.
One of those is Rare Edition, who ranges from [7/4] to [5/2], with the other market leaders Real Stone at [13/8] and Helnwein at [5/2].
Effectively only three bookmakers have priced this up (one outfit are responsible for the same set of prices for three firms) and you can see why.
That said, the 12s in a place about Bollingerandkrug looks plenty big enough, even if he hasn’t run since November – suggesting an issue, though he has gone well when fresh in the past – and Lucinda Russell also has Netywell in here.
He is a six-time course winner and I probably wouldn’t be in a rush to lay the 8s, let alone the 12s.
Ballybreeze has just been confirmed for Newbury on Friday.
Six entries for a 60k pot and the betting for the Premier Chase suggests it may as well be two, with [4/5] Grey Destiny playing [5/4] Iroko and 10s bar.
We will hopefully get most of these turning up (we have prize money down to sixth, with the third getting a handsome £6.420 an the fourth over three bags), though Iroko is also in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday.
It’ll be pretty disappointing if he doesn’t rock up, and there is no way I’d price this up if I was a bookmaker.
You could be laying [4/5] or [5/4] about a 4s-on chance.
Why bother?
Effectively only three firms have priced this 19-strong 2m5f handicap hurdle up (it looks like 18 actually, as it doesn’t appear the 12-16s chance Strong Foundations is eligible, as he has not been allotted a weight).
Mind you, 10 of these are doubly-entered this week, so it is probably fair enough.
It is not a race worth spending too much time on, then.
This is Ace Of Spades’ sole entry and he is the [7/2] favourite with AKBets – and a worthy one after his novices’ hurdle win here in December in a fair time, a performance which the handicapper ignored – with Eaton Anne at 4s, even though he (and he is a he, despite the name) is also in at Newbury.
The next three in the betting – Mr Bramley, Kamsinas and Patriotik – also have alternative engagements.
There is plenty of recent winning form on show here, and the bookmakers who are betting on this 75k Grade 2 2m2f novices’ hurdle collectively make it 4s the field, bringing in Chart Topper and Good And Clever at the top of the market.
There is no stand-out in here, but Good And Clever just about sets the form standard after his Grade 1 third to Kopek Des Bordes at the DRF and James Bowen is already jocked up, for what that is worth.
Mind you, Willie Mullins’ Chart Topper looked good when beating a fair sort at Wetherby last time, so you can see why he is disputing favouritism.
Alan King has warned in his Weekender column on Wednesday that Castle Carrock, an 8s chance in a place but actually backed in to as low as [11/2] and 6s on Tuesday, is far from a certain runner.
He is “no more than a possible” at this stage.
Go and have a read of his fuller comments about the horse, online or in the paper.
Las Canals could be interesting (if running) at 40s (in six places) as he was entered in the Dovecote and Adonis at Kempton last Saturday and presumably they think something of him.
As the only 4yo in here, he gets 8lb and more from the rest.
He won a bumper in October and his third over hurdles at Compiegne in November has worked out well, with the winner taking a Grade 3 next time and the runner-up winning over fences on his most recent start (not that I would profess to know the depth of their form).
Offering him at 40s would seem chancy to me (AKBets are 40s).
I wouldn’t be inclined to give this veterans’ race much of a spin here, other than familiarizing myself with the field and the betting ahead of Saturday.
Credo heads the market at 4s.
Seven of his 14 rivals could go elsewhere.
Pretty much everyone has priced up the Greatwood Gold Cup, including your host AKBets.
Mind you, some layers have hardly covered themselves in glory as one outfit is going 4s, 4s, 5s, 5s and 6s about the first five in their betting in this 21-runner handicap, with another three priced up at [8/1].
Who said ante-post betting was dead?
You can half-understand that (overly overly) defensive stance as Iroko is also in at Kelso and nine others are also double-entered, while we don’t know if Willie Mullins will be bringing over Meetingofthewaters (was today put in at Leopardstown on Sunday).
I am not quite sure why but 66s chance Light N Strike seems to be 3lb well-in here.
Elsewhere, 2022 winner Paint The Dream may have been running like a drain but he has been dropped a massive 15lb for three recent runs and this is his track (form figures of 51113).
Now an 11yo, he may have totally gone at the game, but 33s (in three places) is a fair tempter, though he is also in the veterans’ race at 1.20pm on the card.
I’m not sure if anyone has priced this Listed mares’ novices’ hurdle up – it looks pretty grim stuff outside of World Of Fortune and Dameofthecotswolds – so let’s move on.
There is also very little bookmaker interest in this 2m handicap chase so far, with only two organisations pricing it up.
Petit Tonnerre, with the winning monkey off his back last time, is top-priced at 2s, and four of his 11 potential rivals are out of the handicap.
It’s actually an even messier race than that, as seven of the 12 are entered elsewhere (see below), with Duhallow Tommy confirmed to run at Newbury on Friday.
You can see why most layers have given this a swerve.
It is a little disappointing to see a five-day entry of only 17 for the 70k Teddy Grimthorpe (they could have taken a maximum field of 20 on the day) but it is still a competitive betting heat obviously, with [11/2] the field available if you are lucky enough to be able to pick and choose when and where you can bet….
It is still quite a defensively-priced market even if you can cherry-pick – and with just 17 runners and six doubly-entered horses (Charles Byrnes’ From The Ashes is favourite to win the 4.30pm at Catterick on Tuesday – finished second at (6/4), we are understandably getting 1/4 the odds 1,2,3 – but there are some fair prices knocking around.
I was drawn most to the 16s about Undersupervision (available in three places).
It has the ideal betting combination of being obvious, as well as generously-priced. A rarity.
I had my eye on him for a handicap last weekend but he was a no-show but if he comes here (as you’d expect him to, though I have no idea of running plans), then he is very fairly weighted indeed, off a mark of just 127 on a track where he has previous.
Good previous, too.
He won this race in 2022 (off a 5lb higher mark), he was beaten a neck it in 2023 (again off a 5lb higher mark) and I wouldn’t hold his pulled-up effort in this contest last year against him as that was a very odd race – only two finished – on ground Timeform described as heavy.
He obviously hasn’t been running too well, but at least he finished last time (after three pulled-up performances) and the handicapper has given him every chance here.
And if it was good ground on the day (see below), I’d be happy with out.
I’d say the 16s was very much a bet at this stage.
I can’t access the 16s myself, or indeed the 14s, but I am going to have a small bet at 12s win-only.
I hate taking under the top prices, but we are where we are, but obviously snaffle the bigger prices if you can.
Nigel Twiston-Davies does also have two other entries in the race (and they are both shorter in the betting at [13/2] and 12s), so I would keep stakes small.
And, as I said, I have no idea about running plans, so you may want to wait until the final field is known.
Good luck.
Going: Good to soft, soft in places
Fresh ground has been saved on the hurdle course all season for this meeting. Chase fences have been moved 3yds back inside to allow for fresh ground.
Going stick: 5.6 (Sunday 10.30am)
Weather: Dry (light showers if anything)
Wednesday morning course update: “Partly Cloudy.Weds 26th: 7c overcast with a chance of 1-2mm this morning then sunny spells & dry. Light winds Thurs 27th: 7c overcast sunny spells. Chance of a shower 1mm. Light winds Fri 28th: 7c overcast sunny spells. Light winds. RACEDAY: 9c overcast but dry. light to moderate winds from SW”
Going – Chase: Good to soft, good in places: Hurdle: Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick: N/A
Weather: 6.6mm Wednesday
Wednesday morning course update: “2mm Sunday 1mm Monday Unsettled but mild through the early part of the week, with a small chance of showers. Mainly dry and bright from Thursday through the rest of the week and the weekend. Daytime temps between 9-12C – cooler at night but no frosts currently forecast. Small amount of dry-back expected.”
Rails: Hotel Bend Split Chase – innermost line – no additional distances Hurdle – 10 yds off inner on hotel bend. Innermost line for remainder of circuit, fresh take offs and landings.
Going – Chase: Soft: Hurdle: Soft, heavy in places
Going stick – Chase: 3.3; Hurdle 3.2 (6am Wednesday)
Weather: 7.6mm Wednesday
Wednesday morning course update: “Dry 24 hours. 20mm rain since Sunday. Forecast: Just started to rain, expecting total of 5-8mm today. Dry from tomorrow, sunny spells & light winds. Light frost expected Friday & Saturday morning, but temperatures +9C both days.”
Rails: Hurdles – outside Fences – outside Split bends in place.
1.10pm Kelso: Ballybreeze (entered overnight at Newbury on Friday), Kidman, Rare Edition
1.20pm Newbury: Fidelio Vallis, Gustavian, If Not For Dylan, Lord Baddesley, Paint The Dream, Quick Wave, Twig
1.45pm Kelso: Iroko, Quick Wave, Spyglass Hill
2.05pm Doncaster : Wednesday Addams (entered overnight at Wetherby on Wednesday)
2.20pm Kelso: Eaton Anne, Eloi Du Puy (finished third at Ayr on Monday), Fingals Hill, Ginger Mail, Good Look Charm, Inox Allen, Joecoocker, Kamsinas, Mr Bramley, Patriotik
2.40pm Doncaster : Cabhfuilfunghi (entered overnight at Bangor on Wednesday), Duhallow Tommy (entered overnight at Newbury on Friday), Editeur Du Gite, Homme Public, Rare Edition, Tedley
2.55pm Kelso: Wellington Arch
3.15pm Doncaster : Fidelio Vallis, From The Ashes (finished second at Catterick on Tuesday), Lord Baddesley, Surrey Quest, Twig, White Rhino
3.30pm Kelso: Homme Public, Aucunrisque, Jurancon, Ginger Mail, N’Golo
3.45pm Newbury: Booster Bob, Gustavian, Iroko, Light N Strike, Lord Baddesley, Paint The Dream, Spyglass Hill, Tedley, Meetingofthewaters
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