TONY CALVIN: RACE-by-race analysis for today’s card at Aintree

THURSDAY BETTING UPDATE (as at 6.11am)- Willie the one for wonga in 3.30pm

Nothing much has changed in the 1.45pm, with Selma De Vary clipped into [5/2] (still 3.75, though).

The same applies to 2.20pm, though Koktail Divin has also shortened into [5/2] from [11/4] (available at 3.95, though).

Jango Baie is weak, out to [11/8] in the 2.55pm. All his four rivals have been clipped in as a result.

Barton Snow is strong enough at [15/8] in the 3.30pm but he could get bigger. An outsider who has been cut into 40s from 125 from Williewonga, prompted no doubt from quotes in the Racing Post after his trainer claimed he has backed him to win 159k at 125-1.

Really?

These days?

Must be black market action…

The early markets are as dead as a doornail. Nothing has changed in the 4.05pm, with The New Lion shading favouritism at a general 7/4.

Highlands Legacy and Javert Allen are the main movers in the 4.40pm, into 5s and 6s respectively (from 7s and 8s yesterday). Stencil has been a bigger mover since my initial update and is into just [9/2], from 9s on Tuesday.

I couldn’t see any movement in the bumper at 5.15pm. This race hasn’t even done 18k on Betfair.

1.45pm Aintree – 5/1 Winston may play the senior role, but this is a tough race to call

The card starts with one of the better punting races on Thursday – not a lot of competition there, to be fair – but the problem is it is all too easy to see any of the first five in the betting winning.

It is 33s bar that quintet, who we will come to shortly.

I did have my eye on Ammes at the general 33s from an each-way perspective (standard terms stand here bar the firm that traditionally offer an extra place but make you pay for it – they are 25s about him, for example) but the problem is it is going to be very hard for him to creep into the places.

But if you forgive him his performance in the Fred Winter (beaten 20 lengths off a mark of 128) then his earlier form with Minella Study gives him a place squeak on a track that could suit him better, especially as the first-time visor is an interesting addition.

James Owen has a very good record with this angle (see below) and they may switch to more forcing tactics on him.

A case for any of the top five is easy to make, though.

Selma De Vary ran very well to finish fourth in the Triumph Hurdle considering how keen she was and she narrowly heads the market at [11/4] over Maestro Conti and Minella Study, who both finished in front of her at Cheltenham, separated by a gnat’s cock.

Then you have the DRF third Mange Tout, who comes here as the fresh horse (we will hear that line trotted out a lot this week), and Winston Junior.

Rather annoyingly, all the early 7s and 6s went very quickly about the latter on Tuesday and we are left with the bare bones of 5s to pick at fixed-odds, though he is currently [13/2] win-only on the exchange.

Now I know Saratoga beat him by 2 ¼ lengths in the Fred Winter but that one is being talked up as a Grade 1 horse (and he won off a generous 130 at Cheltenham) but I thought Winston Junior would have bustled him up with a clearer run from 2 out and the form of that handicap is not far detached from that of the Triumph Hurdle.

I haven’t had a bet yet but if I do it will be on him I imagine, probably win-only at the bigger odds (he is only 4s with the firm offering four places ffs!). But I’ll probably sit this out. Too hard.

2.2opm Aintree – An easy race to leave alone

Connections of Lulamba clearly think he will be far better suited to this longer trip after his Arkle third last time, and I’d agree with that.

He poured it on late over 2m on his three chase victories, and a reproduction of his Newbury win would make him hard to beat in a pretty disappointing turn-out for this 2m4f Grade 1.

The Irish title battle between Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins means they will not be strongly represented at this meeting, outside of the Grand National.

This could be Lulamba’s for the taking then, but I can let him win all day long at [4/6] (he is as short as 8/15 in places).

He is now available at [8/11] as at 5.41pm.

The market looks to have got it right in making Koktail Divin second favourite at a general [11/4].

To the disappointment of a fair few ante-post punters, he went down the Grade 1 3m1f route at Cheltenham instead of the easier handicap option, and it looked like his stamina gave out there after looking a threat to all at one stage.

Back to 2m4f could well bring about improvement here then – and he ran well at this meeting last season when fourth in the Grade 1 2m4f novices’ hurdle – but he may well have to progress by the thick-end of a stone if Lulamba runs his race.

2.55pm Aintree – Jango Baie the one to beat but there are doubts at 11/10

Another five-runner race but this could be trickier for Jango Baie than best-price quotes of 11/10 suggest.

I appreciate it was four weeks ago but he must have had a serious lung-buster when chasing home Gaelic Warrior in the Gold Cup, and that has to play on your mind when asked to take short odds about him.

On the plus side, he has turned into three top-class efforts this season and could be hard to beat (he picked up an injury when a close third at 6/4 at this meeting last season, by the way), but there are four credible rivals lining up to down him if he is not on his A-game.

The betting suggests Impaire Et Passe is the one best placed to take advantage if he isn’t (ranges from 3 to 4s) despite being pulled up in the Ryanair, but even a win for 18s outside Pic d’Orhy wouldn’t surprise me here.

Spillane’s Tower presumably will run after all the watering (though he was confirmed for the Grand National this morning) and, like Protekorat (and Pic d’Orhy), bypassed the white-hot heat of Cheltenham.

Another race which I am happy to watch without a bet.

Jango Baie was [5/4] as at 5.42pm.

3.30pm Aintree – Over to you again, Pearce

As is usually (actually always) the case, I am happy to leave this Hunters’ Chase to expert Darran Pearce (@DarranPearce on X) to solve.

I’ll post a link here when his lengthy preview is free to read.

Here it is: https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/194095-aintree-foxhunters-preview/

Incidentally, I see a Myles Osborne trains Take All in this race.

A Myles Osborne owned the controversial, punted winner American Trio at Exeter on Tuesday.

If they are one and the same, that’d be a good interview for ITV to get….

4.05pm Aintree – I’ll probably need to be in a very Lucky Place but here goes – now a NR

I have no strong betting opinion in this seven-runner 2m4f Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle but I did have a very small tickle on the race on Tuesday, backing the outsider Lucky Place at 40s each way 1,2 and 25s each way 1,2,3.

Take the 28s each way 1,2,3 if you can

If you can access the 28s 1,2,3 out there in two places, then obviously that is the place to play, but I didn’t know anyone with those accounts myself.

Like I said, I have had very modest bets but it wouldn’t surprise me if the outsider Lucky Place outran his odds (he is 60.0 on the exchange to tiny sums), as nothing in here particularly scares me.

Granted, he ran disappointingly under Brian Hughes in the old Coral Cup last time (though he was one of those disadvantaged by the unsatisfactory start around a bend and never got involved), but Nico de Boinville (won an Ascot Hurdle and a Relkeel on him last season) is back on board and I have a feeling this speedier track, under ideal trip and ground conditions, could suit him ideally.

He certainly looks overpriced on his earlier third to Kabral Du Mathan and subsequent Festival winner and stablemate Jingko Blue in the Relkeel on his penultimate start – he was giving that pair 6lb – and I’ll take my chances.

In fact, I won’t as he is a NR as at 8.58am (lame).

4.40pm Aintree – Hyenas have left me with scraps about Javert

Unfortunately, I was still working on the podcast when the prices began to filter through for this race on Tuesday, and the early hyenas had scavenged all the 14s and 12s about Javert Allen before I got a look in.

He is now best-priced at 8s, which presents a dilemma.

I think the case for him is obvious, especially with the stable having a welcome winner on Tuesday.

Simply put, he has struggled to last home over an extended 2m4f on his last two starts at Cheltenham and Kempton and he is 2lb lower now on his return to the minimum trip.

This course will suit his forcing style.

Indeed, his 5-length fourth here to Mambonumberfive in November worked out exceptionally well – the winner is 18lb higher, the second 12lb, the third 10lb – and he is 1lb lower.

If he returns to that form, it is game on here, and maybe the first-time cheekpieces will help, too.

I still think the 8s each way is just about acceptable but he could drift back out. I’ll wait for now.

The [3/1] favourite Sans Bruit is troublesome on two counts (he is 10/3 in a place).

Firstly, he is Javert Allen’s sole pace rival.

And secondly he looks weighted to make a very bold bid for a hat-trick in this race after a winless season which has seen him come down 11lb.

Whatever I back here, I will ensure I don’t lose if Sans Bruit wins.

It is just a pity that he could stuff it up on the front end for Javert Allen.

Time for a further think.

Javert Allen was into 7s at 5.43pm, so that’s a further sulk-up.

5.15pm Aintree – Pull out before the Bumper baby (third time I have used that sub-header this year…)

I rarely touch bumpers and that is the case again here in this mares’ event.

Sorry. But no point pretending otherwise.

The [9/1] chance and runaway Warwick winner Burds Of A Feather has some engine if they can harness it – which they couldn’t do when she bolted before the start and was withdrawn at Sandown last time – but this is clearly rather a deep race, with plenty of unknowns attached to it.

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Let’s be honest here….

Thursday at Aintree is one poor punting card, let’s be honest.

Top-tier racing (ish), undoubtedly, but three of the four Grade 1s have not attracted enough runners for each-way 1,2,3 betting, and we also have a Hunters’ Chase and a bumper on the card, too.

Instinctively, I thought there were only two betting races on the card, and the pair that I was immediately drawn to in both have already been shortened (as of 2.30pm), so I’ll sit on any copy until tomorrow at the earliest.

Given the forecast, I suspect they will continue to hammer the watering as well on Wednesday (current details below).

AINTREE DETAILS

MILDMAY Course: Good to soft (Going stick – Hurdles: 5.2; Chase: 5.6)

NATIONAL Course – Good to soft (Going stick 4.9)

Rails: All Mildmay/Hurdle bends out 8yds except home bend hurdle which is out 5yds. GN Bends in innermost position.

• Race 1:Race distance is now +59y to 2m 1f 48y
• Race 2:Race distance is now +78y to 2m 4f 58y
• Race 3:Race distance is now +100y to 3m 1f 90y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +75y to 2m 4f 75y
• Race 6:Race distance is now +62y to 2m 18y
• Race 7:Race distance is now +59y to 2m 1f 48y

Thursday course update: 0.8mm rain Wed, 0.8mm Thurs, 0.2mm Fri, 0.4mm Sun Forecast: Cloudier with a chance of light showers Thurs & Fri (0-2mm); some sunny spells. Mostly cloudy on Sat with occasional showers (1-4mm).

Watering: Watered last Thursday (8-10mm), Friday (5-6mm), Sat morning (5-6mm), Mon (8-10mm), Tues (8-10mm), Wed (6-8mm).

Latest yr.no forecast (5.30am Thursday): 0.4mm Thursday (11 degrees), 1.7mm Friday, 2.5mm Saturday

BALLOTED OUT (not sure there was ante-post betting on this race, though)

5.15pm:  Doubleosue

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

James Owen, visor; Ammes; 1.45pm; 19-68

Donald McCain, cheekpieces; Lord, 1.45pm; 16-120 (since 2016)

Greenall and Guerriero visor; Gaboriot, 3.30pm; 0-3

Myles Osborne, cheekpieces; Take All; 3.30pm; 0-1

Harry Fry cheekpieces; Boothill, 4.40pm; 5-27 (2017)

Jane Williams cheekpieces; Javert Allen, 4.40pm; 2-18

Anthony McCann cheekpieces; Midnight Musical, 5.15pm; 0-32 (2016)

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.45pm: Aqua Bleu, Lord, Minella Study (prom), Winston Junior, Mange Tout

2.20pm :  Blueking D’Oroux, Koktail Divin, Lulamba (prom) – Lucky Place NR

2.55pm :  Pic D’orhy, Protektorat

3.30pm : A Moments Madness, Famous Clermont, Fan De Blues (prom), Golden Son, Gracchus De Balme, Great Notions (prom), Joker De Mai Lets Go Champ,  Snipe, Thunder Rock, Unexpected Party, Hollywood Harmon

4.05pm: El Fabiolo, Potters Charm, Brighterdaysahead

4.40pm : Sans Bruit, Javert Allen

5.15pm: Burds Of A Feather, Kiltybo, Princess Day

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: Dan Skelton, Adam Nicol, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, Lucy Wadham (very small sample), Harry Fry (8-11 winner on Wednesday), George and Zetterholm, Peter Fahey (two winners; four runners), Anthony McCann (two winners; five runners), Gary and Josh Moore (another winner on Wednesday), Emmet Mullins, Olly Murphy

Fair: James Owen, Warren Greatrex, Adrian Keatley, Donald McCain, Faye Bramley, Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Henry De Bromhead, Ben Pauling, Fergal O’Brien (controversial winner on Tuesday), Joe Tizzard, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Alan King, Neil Mulholland (9-1 winner on Wednesday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Mrs C Williams, Tom Ellis (no winners), Gavin Cromwell, Jennie Candlish, Clive Boultbee-Brooks

Moderate: Samuel Drinkwater, Jeremy Scott (three placed), Anthony Honeyball,  Jane Williams (5-2 winner on Tuesday stemmed the ride though, so probably more fair), Max Comley, Keiran Burke (winner on Tuesday though), Greenall and Guerriero, Charlie Longsdon

Don’t know: Jimmy Mangan,  Conor Houlihan, JJ O’Shea, Mrs N Sheppard, W H Easterby, J M B Cookson, R Varnham, Mrs David Plunkett, Mrs G Andrews, C R Barber, Miss Nikki Henton, Fiona Needham, Lemos De Souza, Mags Mullins, Kelly Morgan, Myles Osborne, Jack Teal, AC Wilson