TONY CALVIN: A 40/1 chance is just too big to ignore at Newbury on Saturday

GOING UPDATE – 9am Wednesday

There is no mention of watering on the BHA site but Newcastle put down 6mm yesterday

In the Racing Post, Newcastle clerk of the course Jane Hedley said: “We’ve watered and put on 6mm all round the track. We could get some light showers tomorrow [Wednesday], but not anything meaningful. Our outlook beyond that until the weekend is dry and we’re planning to maintain good ground through watering.

“It’s ironic because we’ve been crying out for the rain. We’ve had 12mm in the last month and we were looking for rain last weekend, but we only got 12mm while the rest of the country has got a soaking.

“The upside to the lack of rain is that it should be a nice day with temperatures looking mild.”

Newbury had 13mm of rain overnight but ground updates say it hardly made a dent

Despite 13mm overnight, the ground remained soft on the hurdles course, and it eased to just good to soft, soft in places, on the chase track (from good to soft).

It obviously took the rain incredibly well.

I sound like Fitzy there on an ITV course walk…..

Three key starting points

There are two starting points when ante-post betting.

Well, three.

The third is to assume you will get similar prices on the day, and enhanced place terms, providing you can access them.

So be selective.

The first is to be guided by those with double entries.

Avoid them.

You may think a horse is certain to go one way, but you aren’t the person making the final decision.

Trainers and owners have their own opinions and plans, and they often make some puzzling calls. And there are loads of horses with a range of options this week (see below).

The second is to take full notice of weather forecasts and watering plans.

Doyen Quest was probably the worst ante-post favourite I have seen in a long while last weekend (was 3s across the board when it looked odds against to run) because of the Haydock weather forecast.

Newbury could get a proper dousing again on Wednesday (rain is actually due to start around 10pm on Tuesday), and Newcastle, with a relatively dry forecast, are already making noises about watering.

Anyway, let’s have a look at the six races on ITV on Saturday.

However, before then, spare a thought for Bangor, and their racegoers, who have to start their Saturday meeting at 10.35am because of Premier Racing.

What a continuing nonsense, that is.

1.54pm Newbury – 14s Anyharminasking is big – if he runs this time

First a line on the current going at Newbury.

It is soft on the hurdles track, and good to soft on the chase circuit, but rain is due in around 9pm on Tuesday, and a fair amount could land.

Initially, 24mm was expected on one site, but that has been downgraded a touch, though. We could still be seeing heavy in places over hurdles by Thursday morning.

And the two-day meeting could see churned-up ground on Saturday.

Seven of the 21 in this 2m4f+ handicap hurdle have alternative options this week, so that whittles down the numbers somewhat. From my way of thinking anyway.

That still doesn’t help a great deal though, as those bookmakers who have priced this up have done so defensively, perhaps understandably.

Impose Toi and Inthewaterside are vying for favouritism at around the 5s mark, but they don’t make much appeal at those odds.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Impose Toi, also has three others in here at the five-day stage, and they include No Ordinary Joe for the same owner.

I can leave this alone for now.

Anyharminasking is big at 14s and regular readers will know that I have been interested in him for two recent races, but he got pulled on account of good ground in the Greatwood and soft ground at Haydock on Saturday.

One to back on the day, not ante-post.

2.10pm Newcastle – 11/10 Sir Gino just shades it

It is currently good ground at Newcastle and I imagine they will water, rightly or wrongly, with only light showers (if that) due on Wednesday and Friday.

You can bet your bottom dollar Mr Henderson and Mr Mullins have been in the clerk’s ear this week on that front.

The betting suggests this is a straight-up match between [11/10] Sir Gino and [13/8] Mystical Power, even if the ratings don’t have them towering over their rivals.

Mystical Power is on 154, and Sir Gino 152, but Nemean Lion is on 150, so we are not exactly dealing with top-notchers here.

Yet.

There is a strong suspicion that Sir Gino could be a proper tool on the evidence of his Cheltenham win last January.

Sure, his Grade 1 Aintree win (which came when the stable was in poor nick) was better in form terms, but it lacked the visual wow factor of his earlier success over Burdett Road.

I’d favour him at the current odds, but there is no need to play now, for all many of the lesser mortals in here may decline to take him on.

Mystical Power was taken out of the Hatton’s Grace on Tuesday afternoon (there are now only four left in that race at the five-day stage).

2.25pm Newbury – Ooh Betty is no 20/1 chance

I like too many in here to get involved at the moment. This could be a red-hot handicap if the numbers hold up.

But no way should Ooh Betty be trading at 20s in two places (though to be honest it is one bookmaking outfit offering those odds, so when one price goes, the other will probably follow suit).

She went up 6lb for a Sandown win on her return but that looked a strong handicap, so I think the rise was justified.

And the form of the Ben Clarke stable is another plus for her chances.

3.00pm Newbury – Remastered 40s each way, four places, looks too big for all the doubts

Just 16 five-day entries for a 250k handicap is not great. And three of the 16 are double-entered, while two have the option of waiting for the Becher on December 7^th.

So it is sad, but not surprising, to see nine firms on the Oddschecker grid only offering 1,2,3 each way terms.

I will say one thing though, and that is most (if not all) of these firms will be offering four places on the day, so why put off ante-post punters?

Still, we have had some pretty small fields in recent years, with Sizing Tennessee beating 11 rivals in 2018, so let’s hope we at least get that number.

We have Colonel Harry (now comfortably winning this battle, in fact), Victtorino, Broadway Boy and Senior Chief all vying for favouritism at around the 7s mark, which looks fair enough.

I know he is an 11yo now, and clearly vulnerable to the 6 and 7yos, but I can’t see how some firms, including AKBets, are happy to offer Remastered at 40s each way, four places.

Granted, he has failed to complete in five of his last seven races (and he was pulled up in this race last year), so he is arguably more of a win-only proposition, but he was still going perfectly well when a close up second to the ball-room-blitzer , now retired, Al Dancer in the Badger Beer last time, only to keel over 4 out.

This is a horse who won at Wincanton on his reappearance (after which the trainer said he was on the brink of being retired beforehand) and, let us not forget, finished second in this race in 2022 (off just a 3lb lower mark) and he can handle good and soft ground alike.

Concern about trainer/owner having two in here

Now, it is a slight worry that David Pipe and owners Brocade Racing also have Neon Moon in here (the latter is in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on Saturday) – so we may do our money in cold blood – but there is no logical reason why they wouldn’t throw two darts at such a big and winnable prize, if they so wish.

And Remastered likes Newbury.

There are negatives, of course – not least his age, and that completion rate (he was actually trading at 2s in running when departing in this race in 2021, as well), and he was apparently sore after that fall last time – but I’d say he is just about the best bet in here at 40s, four places, at the current prices.

He looked to be going plenty well enough at Wincanton last time. I know it was a long way out but I am surprised he was dropped 1lb for it (though that kicks in after this early-closer, so he is effectively 1lb wrong here).

At the price and four places, I am happy to have the place part on my side. Any 33s with that combo is also fine.

This is not a great renewal.

3.20pm Newcastle – 8/1 Donny Boy is the pick of the early prices

Ten of the 18 in here are doubly-entered (see below), and four are in the Becher on December 7^th.

Don’t back Apple Away, as she is declared to run at Market Rasen on Wednesday,

So, if you were being very strict – and that includes throwing out the dangerous 16s poke Jet Plane – that would leave you with a list of five possibles: Donny Boy, Elvis Mail, Marble Sands, Some Scope and Special Rate.

It looks like being good ground here (unless they go overboard with the watering) and that should suit Donny Boy and Marble Sands just fine, and I think they are probably the two to concentrate on at 8s and 12s respectively.

Course winner Donny Boy is 8s in two places and that simply looks too big after a good reappearance run over an extended 2m4f at Ayr earlier in the month, a race he would have gone a lot closer to winning had he met the last fence right.

He went up 2lb for that run, which is fair enough, and he could be an extra 1lb higher here (being that much out of the handicap) if top weight Sam Brown runs.

The step back up in trip will suit him, as his best form is over course and distance last December (beaten a head by a horse now rated 9lb higher).

Marble Sands is unproven over the trip (all the evidence suggests he struggles to get it in, truth) but he wants decent ground and stamina won him the day when he beat Coral Gold Trophy winner Colonel Harry over 2m4f in the Colin Parker on his return.

Forced to pick between the two, I’d plump for Donny Boy at 8s as he has everything going him.

With a hefty proviso.

Have to wait on Donny Boy, though (see below – thanks to Nick Alexander)

Well, maybe not everything.

One slight worry is that the trainer (who also has the legend that is Evis Mail in here and won this with Lake View Lad in 2018) has said in the past that “I wouldn’t want to risk him on properly good ground” and Timeform called it good to soft at Ayr, as opposed to the official good.

But they are set to water.

And if they do over-water a touch, that would suit him even better.

But it is best to wait for now. The trainer kindly just got back to me when I asked about running plans and he said: “Plans up in the air I’m afraid, due to ground.”

So sit tight.

3.35pm Newbury – Imperial Saint the worthy favourite

I’m happy to leave this race alone until the final field is known.

It is very easy to see why the hugely progressive Imperial Saint is the [9/4] favourite, though.

That price is available with AKBets.

BET

Remastered at [40/1] each way, four places, in 3pm at Newbury on Saturday. That combination is available with six firms, including AKBets.

GOING/WEATHER – updated 9am Wednesday

NEWBURY – hardly changed after 13mm overnight, strangely

GOING: Chase: Good to soft, soft in places; Hurdle: Soft

GOING STICK READINGS: Chase: 4.3 Hurdle: 3.9  (as at 6am Wednesday)

WEATHER: Dry

NEWCASTLE

GOING: Good

GOING STICK READINGS: 7.5 (7.45am Monday)

WEATHER: Light showers Wednesday (1,7mm) and Friday (0.9mm)

WATERING: Not mentioned on BHA site but 6mm put down on Tuesday

DOUBLE ENTRIES:

1.54pm Newbury: Ballybentragh, Champagne Twist, Lac De Constance, Navajo Indy, Pembroke, Red Dirt Road, Samuel Spade

2.10pm Newcastle: Salver, Tellherthename

2.25pm Newbury: Ballybentragh, Navajo Indy, Queens Gamble, Salver, Tapley, Tellherthename, The Famous Five

3.00pm Newbury: Sam Brown, Henry’s Friend, Neon Moon

NB: Kandoo Kid and Iron Bridge are in Becher on Dec 7

3.20pm Newcastle: Sam Brown, Anglers Crag, Apple Away (entered at overnight stage on Wednesday), Blackjack Magic, Bowtogreatness, Gustavian, Jet Plane, Lord Baddesley, Neon Moon, The Changing Man

NB: Frero Banbou, Bowtogreatness, Now Where or When, and Kinondu Kwetu are in Becher on Dec 7

3.35pm Newbury: Beau Balko, Issar D’Airy, Petit Tonnerre, Someone’s Wish