By Tony Calvin - 20 December 2024
Ascot has surprisingly eased to good to soft, soft in places, on the back of very little rain.
They have only had 7.4mm in the last week (and 2mm overnight) and it has gone from good on Tuesday morning to the current description.
Strange.
At least , Trelawne should run now.
Haydock has eased to heavy, soft in places, and I’d say the soft will disappear toute suite with more rain forecast throughout the day, albeit the forecast suggests most of it will appear after racing.
There is something about Haydock that is a rain (and wind) magnet on race days, and the heavens opened as forecast from Wednesday onwards, and we are now looking at heavy ground for Saturday’s fixture.
They were good to soft earlier in the week, but the going stick readings – 5.5 on Sunday but just 4.0 on Thursday morning – underline how testing it will be yet again there, with more rain to come through Friday and Saturday (maybe 12mm on Saturday).
There is also a yellow wind warning there from 7am onwards on Saturday, so I imagine there will be an inspection (see below in stats/weather section).
They can’t catch a break.
Well, not in 40mph+ gusts, anyway….
Speaking on Friday morning, Haydock clerk of the course Daniel Cooper said: “There’s a yellow warning for winds in Scotland, North Wales and the north-west of England and we’re on the very southerly edge of it.
“It doesn’t look as strong as Storm Darragh, which caused the Becher to be abandoned, but nevertheless we’re going to have to take it seriously.
“It’s forecast to be strongest at 11am with 44mph gusts, so it will be happening as horses will be getting into the parade ring for the first race. At this stage, there’s not much room for an inspection beforehand because it’s a building up towards the first race rather than happening in the morning.
“The 44mph gusts are not critical, but they are strong. The intention is to carry on and monitor it as the first race is happening.
“There’s optimism but it could change and get worse, so it’s one to keep an eye on. Unless our position changes or our forecast updates, there’s no inspection planned at the moment.”
The ground has eased a little at Ascot, and it is now good to soft there, having been good on Tuesday. There is maybe a little more rain to come in the next 24 hours (again, see below).
The course will have welcomed the little rain they had in midweek, and most connections will view the ground for the two-day fixture as perfect – especially on the Friday – and the numbers have held up pretty well in the main.
Haydock have not been so lucky – the opening Beginners’ Chase is a match – though some ante-post punters will have been, as we will come on to shortly.
Willie Mullins normally confirms his runners very late on but he actually inked in James Du Berlais very early (for him) on the BHA site on Thursday morning, as did Gordon Elliott for Fil Dor and Henry de Bromhead for Jungle Boogie.
Undeterred, connections of Iroko took up the challenge, and this race looks a cracker, for all we have just four runners. And thanks heavens for the Irish interest.
I suppose one of the downsides of the big guns confirming early on Thursday morning was that it deterred a few of the lesser lights taking up the engagement (we had five defections from Monday) and bolstering the numbers for each-way billy bunters.
But it is not often you get horses rated 155, 154 and 152 twice contesting a Graduation Chase, and this could be a pearler.
Jungle Boogie looks most likely to lead, as Fil Dor only made it at Thurles last time because he was [1/40] in a match.
Henry De Bromhead’s 10yo stood out for me at the prices at 8s when I did the ante-post column on Tuesday, for all I didn’t know if he was a likely runner – not aftertiming guv, read it here: https://tips.akbets.co.uk/tony-calvin-comprehensive-ante-post-look-at-the-six-itv-weekend-races/ – and of course you are sitting pretty if you took that price.
I was actually very surprised to see he was a 10yo as he has only raced six times and he has obviously been very fragile to train.
He only raced three times for Mullins, winning them all, and he has done the same for De Bromhead (running three times, not remaining unbeaten, that is), starting off his career for him over 2m last December and ended up finishing sixth in the Gold Cup.
In between, he won a Grade 3 over 2m7f at Tramore and I think he is the most talented horse in here, and likely to be fully revved up given that fragility.
However, there is barely a minor jumping error between these four on official ratings, and he and Fil Dor have to give 3lb to the others, too.
Iroko was the [7/4] ante-post favourite earlier in the week but he has his hands full now as all of his serious rivals have rocked up from Ireland.
But that hasn’t stopped him shortening from [15/8] to [13/8] since we knew the final field.
Exchange-tracking for pennies, I imagine.
A 6yo, like Fil’ Dor, he undoubtedly has the most scope for improvement and he should probably have beaten Trelawne on his return had Jonjo O’Neill Jr ridden him closer to the pace.
A lot has been made of the fact that he is being aimed at the Grand National, and a win against this company (for 26k) will probably do his handicap mark no favours at all, but you just have to assume here is here to win.
James Du Berlais is officially the horse to beat at these weights on his Topham second and he presumably missed last weekend’s December Gold Cup on purpose to come here.
The summary?
This is your archetypal watch-no-bet race, though Jungle Boogie could be hard to catch if primed for this, which he surely will be.
It was not surprising to see the revised [9/2] about him taken promptly on Thursday morning, and he now trades at [7/2].
The weather has not helped Haydock’s cause once again, and this race did well to get nine runners in the end, as Frenchy Du Large and Credo only got confirmed for this late on (Venetia had made her Ascot confirmations a while earlier).
It will be heavy at Haydock (see below), and rather windy.
And, let’s be honest here, betting on ground as bad as this is likely to be is probably not great news.
That aside, I made the case for Jacks Parrot at 16s on Tuesday and, with the field cutting up from 18 to nine, his price has shortened accordingly, though probably not due to cash.
That said, there must have been some money around for him on Thursday and he has shortened again from 10s to [15/2].
Carrying the lightest weight in the likely ground is probably not a bad spot to be in here and, for all it was a three-runner race, he showed when winning in hock-deep going at Uttoxeter last season that he can handle extreme slop.
I know he ran well below his best at Carlisle on his return but, possibly significantly, he didn’t wear his usual tongue-tie there.
It is back on for this.
His price has ebbed away, though.
Nicky Richards is the “Trainer In Focus” in this column and his Famous Bridge is the justified favourite in here at [3/1].
He is two from three at this track, including this race, and he unseated his jockey on the other occasion.
I probably wouldn’t lay 3s myself.
Percussion has been nibbled from 20s to 14s and I can see the speculative case for him in a first-time visor (stats below). He has dropped down to a very winnable mark of 125 and he can handle the mud.
Whether he can handle Haydock mud (he has never raced here), we shall see. If the meeting is on, that is.
If it is, I will probably have a little nibble on him.
We only lost Kerryhill and Langer Dan from the five-day entries, so this race has really stood up well, and it shows the benefit of the Grade 1 not being an early-closer, with connections not being put off for entry fees and costlier supplements.
We clearly lack for an outstanding hurdler in the staying division (with the exception of Teahupoo), so this is perhaps a deeper race than the betting would have you believe.
No arguments here that Strong Leader is the right favourite – he is race-fit and his Aintree win in April is the best form on offer in this – but he hardly sets a scary standard and even a best-priced [9/4] is not enticing me in.
And a lot of people are making noises about whether he can reproduce his best form right-handed, citing his defeat here at the hands of Blueking d’Oroux in the Coral Hurdle last season.
I can fully see why The Wallpark is second favourite here at [7/2] – the early 4s on Thursday morning was quickly accommodated – and why all the 33s and 25s for the Stayers’ Hurdle was taken about him earlier in the week ahead of an anticipated bold showing here.
Of course, the fact that JP McManus bought him privately since we last saw him winning a Pertemps qualifier off 145 on good ground at Cheltenham in October adds to the mix, too.
He poured it on late there – after hitting 11.5 in running when seemingly up against it turning in – eventually coming home a dominant winner from a seasoned, solid handicapper in Gowel Road.
He is up to 152 now and new connections are understandably keen to see whether this highly progressive 6yo (who started his winning run off 129 at Kilbeggan in July) can cut it in Grade 1 company, but will Cheltenham play to his strengths more than Ascot?
To be honest, the gap between a decent handicapper and a Grade 1 winner is not a great deal when it comes to recent staying hurdles – indeed, Crambo, also in here, won this race last season when rated a mere 142 – so plenty of others are trying their luck, such as the 145-rated Shoot First.
Given who he is trained by, he was one of the more staggering winning drifters this season when battling it out at Haydock last time – he went off at a Betfair SP of 34, having been trading in single figures 48 hours earlier – and he has very few miles on the clock for a horse set to turn nine.
In truth, with a solid enough favourite and loads of plausible contenders queuing up behind him – last year’s winner Crambo has a great record when fresh, having won on his debut in 2021 and his seasonal reappearances in 2022 and 2023, as well as being two from two here – it is easy enough to leave well alone from a betting perspective.
Haydock and ITV have re-ordered their card, with the original 2.40pm, the Listed mares’ novices’ hurdle, now off the box at 12.55pm.
We won’t deal with that race now then, but if you took the 10s about Kelya Wood on Tuesday – it was only available in one place, so tipping her wasn’t an option – then you are sitting very pretty, with only four rivals in opposition (and one of those, Fromheretoeternity, only came in right on the 10am bell). She is now best at [7/2].
In its place we have an eight-runner handicap hurdle but, worryingly, one of those (Jilaijone, who is actually the 5/2 favourite in this) is also in at Hereford on Saturday.
Thankfully, this race is his first preference.
It doesn’t look a great race, but I was very surprised Bashful opened up at 20s on Thursday (now 18s). And not really shocked when the 18s went too, with 12s now the best on offer.
He is actually two from four on officially heavy ground, and he has not run badly in a couple of outings of late (granted, okay may be pushing it somewhat), for which he has come down 3lb to a lowly rating of 102.
Getting a stone off five of his rivals, and 8lb and 5lb from the other two, perhaps he can spring a surprise here.
He is only 4lb higher than his last winning mark at Musselburgh in February (under today’s jockey Conor O’Farrell) and he arguably should be trading in single figures in this company.
Of course, there are negatives – he has no course form, and the stable could be in better nick – but if there is a bet in the race it is Bashful at the current prices.
It definitely is. Over to you.
Thankfully, we have kept hold of eight of the 12 from the five-day stage for this 100k handicap chase– at the moment, anyway.
I was half-expecting Trelawne not to turn up given he has never raced on better ground than soft (though Timeform have him running a blinder on good to soft when third to Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning at Cheltenham last December), but the rain on Wednesday night has tempted them in.
The going stick readings improved markedly from Thursday to Friday, so I just wonder if they will make a late call once walking the track on the morning of the race – there is a bit more rain about in the next 24 hours – and Kim Bailey also has Two For Gold in here as well (for different owners, admittedly).
The starting point for this race has to be 2s poke Victtorino, who is arguably a stronger favourite than Strong Leader at a similar price.
He is not without the odd negative, though, to go with the positives.
Victtorino is only 1lb higher than when winning this race by ¾ length last year, from a next-time-out winner who has gone up 12lb since, so he has a glaringly obvious chance here.
Granted, he ran a bit of a curious race in the Coral Gold Cup last time, looking likely to be pulled up at one stage, but he fairly charged home to finish third.
He does have that kind of disinterested run-style though – held up, makes a few mistakes, gets a bit detached before consenting to finish with a rattle, so layers always think they are in with a chance– but we know this course and distance on decent ground is ideal for him.
If you have access to an exchange account, he will probably be double his pre-race price after two fences in running given his usual run-style – he doubled in price before winning this race last season – but, then again, everyone is wise to that run-style now.
It is like when horses such as Inglis Drever used to get the job done after looking up against it. His in-running price barely shifted.
There are a few wild cards in here, not least the French horse, Heloy Delabarriere, who attracted a few nibbles in the ante-post market on Wednesday and is now 8s.
I am not going to lie and tell you I know anything about the depth of his form – or indeed, the jockey and trainer – but he finished second in a Grade 1 hurdle last month and he can race off a chase mark of 139 here.
I know his best form has come over hurdles, but that would appear generous enough.
Hand on heart, Victtorino will probably take a fair bit of whacking but I can let these 2s poke win untouched every day of the week, especially with the French horse, available at a fair 8s, and some other that are on winnable marks, such as The Changing Man and Flegmatik (down to 134 now after admittedly running like a drain).
Watch out for Trelawne being a non-runner in this dead-eight, though.
Only two defections from the five-day stage in this 125k hurdle, so it’s a cracker.
At the best prices, the bookmakers are betting around [11/8] that either of the Greatwood Hurdle 2-3 of Be Aware and Dysart Enos win this – though some are betting just [10/3] and 3s, so even shorter than the [11/8] obviously – and I sense plenty will be thinking they could get a result here.
Of course, that pair have some seriously sexy profiles, as lightly-raced, young, improvers. They could easily fight out the finish here.
However, I know the Greatwood Hurdle is usually a great stepping stone to this race – the last two winners of this race, including Tritonic in 2021, ran in that Cheltenham race – but how good a renewal was it this year?
Certainly, the fourth Tintintin, was underwhelming at Cheltenham last week, and it isn’t hard to make a fair each-way case for several of these.
Most firms are betting to four places (AKBets bet to standard terms) and the usual mob are paying five, though you will be getting the worst odds out there, if so (just 16s about the horse I like, when he is a general 25s).
I could chuck a few names at you here but I will limit it to one.
Black Hawk Eagle.
Kerry Lee has had a season to forget so far but she had her first winner of the campaign at Bangor last week, and the 6yo looks plenty big enough at 25s in here (the 28s was taken on Thursday).
Black Hawk Eagle blew out totally when just a 5s poke for the Morebattle last season but his two runs this term have hinted at a better to come from his mark of 122.
I appreciate he has been beaten 5 lengths and 3 lengths respectively off that mark in this campaign, but I thought he shaped very well when third to Lump Sum and Steel Ally in the Welsh Champion Hurdle (that is strong form, and he is 9lb better off for four lengths with the runner-up) and he was given an unconvincing ride when second to the progressive Norman Fletcher at Huntingdon last time.
At a general 25s, four places, I think he is worth a small each-way investment, for all there is a suspicion he could be a bit soft (for example, that Huntingdon run, especially if that was by accident and not design).
This handicap could be too hot to handle for him then, but he made a fair impression when winning at Wincanton and Hereford last term, and Lee has a decent record when coming to Ascot.
She has had four winners from 24 runners, and five of the others finished second – so she is pretty selective – and hopefully the overall form of the yard is ready to take a big leap forward now.
I am willing to pay to find out to small stakes.
I am off to brave UK’s train system shortly but if I can find my laptop charger, I may do a column update on Saturday morning.
If not, good luck.
My Christmas work plans include The Racing Room podcast on Monday, a Boxing Day column appearing late on the 23rd or early on Christmas Eve, and further articles from thereon in.
Good job I am The Grinch.
Black Hawk Eagle at [25/1] each way, four places, in 3.35pm at Ascot. The combination is available in five places.
NB: Please read the copy in full for other betting suggestions/angles.
Going Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick reading – Chase: 6.3; Hurdle: 6.2
Weather: Light showers
Rails: The running rail on the Hurdle course will be moved to its innermost position following racing on Friday around the whole course to provide fresh ground for Saturday. The rail on the Chase course will be positioned 5m out around Home bend and Paddock bend. Around Swinley Bottom it will be moved for Saturday to be about 6m out.
Going: Heavy
Going stick reading: 4.3 (7am Saturday)
Weather: 6.7mm Saturday (most of it after racing)
Yellow wind warning:”Yellow warning for wind Saturday from 07.00am, currently no wind to report. The forecast peak wind is 20mph. There is >80% chance of gusts higher than 40mph from midday. Conditions will be monitored throughout the day and updates shared as required.”
Rails: All rail has been moved out 5yds into fresh ground.
Gary and Josh Moore cheekpieces – 0-12 since 2024; Black Gerry, 1.15pm Ascot
Gary Moore cheekpieces 7-87 since 2016
Laura Morgan visor – 5-36 since 2016; Percussion, 2.05pm Haydock
1.50pm Ascot: Fil Dor?, Jungle Boogie
2.05pm Haydock: Egbert?, Frenchy Du Large?, Percussion?, Regal Blue?
2.25pm Ascot: Blueking D’Oroux, Botox Has
2.40pm Haydock: Lune De La Mer?, Milldam (prom)
3.00pm Ascot: Threeunderthrufive. Trelawne, Two For Gold
3.35pm Ascot: Steel Ally, Kihavah, Our Champ?, Tritonic?, Impero, Secret Squirrel
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Someone mentioned to me that these tend to be a bit southern-focused, but they certainly don’t get more northern-based than Nicky Richards.
My old man came from Whitehaven, so I looked at the aa.com route to Richards’ Cumbrian lair from there, and it came out at just 40 miles.
Not too far then.
Richards is having an okay season, with 17 winners at a strike rate of 15 per cent this term, but his form has picked up a bit of late, if not his health.
He has had four winners since December 8th, and three of his last four runners have finished second at 25s, 15-2 and 4s.
He runs Famous Bridge in the Tommy Whittle at 2.05pm at Haydock on Saturday, as well as three others on the card, with Gege Ville in the 12.20pm, Sunnyvilla in the 1.30pm and Castle Rushen in the 3.15pm.
Granted, this is a team effort as Richards only came out of hospital on Tuesday after a fall three weeks ago, and he will be at home on Saturday, and not at Haydock, recovering from a broken shoulder blade, pelvis and several ribs.
One tough hombre at 68 years old.
Good: Willie Mullins, Dan Skelton, Olly Murphy, Gavin Cromwell, Sam Thomas, Alan King, Nicky Richards, James Owen, Jennie Candlish, Jamie Snowden
Fair: Gordon Elliott, Paul Nicholls, Gary and Josh Moore, Fergal O’Brien (borderline moderate), Charles Byrnes, Kim Bailey (tailing off a bit), Ben Pauling (borderline good), Chris Gordon (7-1 winner on Friday), Kerry Lee, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Anthony Honeyball, Donald McCain, Greenall and Guerriero, Nicky Henderson (7-1 winner early on on Friday), Henry De Bromhead (not many winners though – just two of late in fact, from a fairly large sample), Nigel Twiston-Davies (two winners on Thursday), Venetia Williams, Joe Tizzard, Tristan Davidson (very few runners), David Pipe (winner on Friday), Dianne Sayer
Moderate: Adrian Keatley, Cian Collins, Evan Williams (though a 10-1 winner on Thursday, admittedly from seven runners, with two shorties beaten), Nick Alexander, Laura Morgan (maybe harsh as she had three seconds), Iain Jardine
Don’t know: William Durkan, A Chaille-Chaille (though no recent winners from a fair few runners), Hughie Morrison (very few runners on Flat), Lisa Harrison
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
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