TONY CALVIN: Comprehensive ante-post look at the six ITV weekend races

Ground, weather and a new feature for ante-post columns

There are two early-closers this weekend – surprisingly the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot wasn’t one of those, but that’s a cute move to maximise numbers – so we have an established market of sorts on those contests.

Not that anything other than pennies would have been traded on them long term, but at least those markets were all back up quickly on Monday afternoon, swiftly followed by the Grade 1 Long Walk (well swiftly by one firm, anyway)

We will get to those shortly but a quick flick at the going and weather at Ascot and Haydock.

Ground has dried to good at Ascot

The going at Ascot has dried to good on Tuesday morning, with a reasonable forecast – though the BHA site disagrees and says maybe up to 20mm before Friday – and Haydock is good to soft with a wetter outlook (see below).

Mind you, Haydock were forecast 21mm alone on Wednesday when I looked on Sunday – yes, I do start prepping then, as I am sad like that – so their forecast has actually improved a touch in the last 24 hours.

They are now expecting just 16mm, though the forecast is constantly changing as to the amounts set to land.

I’d be working on the basis of good to soft at Ascot as it stands, and soft, heavy in places, at Haydock.

I wouldn’t say the entries are plentiful for the ITV races but there are few double-entries this week (see below), so there is a good chance the numbers will hold up.

And when numbers hold up, there is an even fairer chance you will get better prices after the confirmation stage on Thursday morning, with extra places thrown in.

Something to bear in mind before pulling the betting trigger too early.

I have included early-closing options for all entries up to January 1^st, and added a new feature: five-day pace maps.

1.50pm Ascot – 7/4 Iroko’s mark for Grand National will be in focus here

5—DAY PACE MAP: Fil D’or, Jungle Boogie?, Solo?, Unexpected Party?

If it remains good at Ascot on Saturday, then I would look out for unexpected non-runners, so tread carefully.

There are nine in this Graduation Chase and prices were very slow to appear (just three firms up as this goes live).

I went from site to site looking for prices on Tuesday morning, eventually finding a couple of sets (four firms are now up).

Iroko topped the betting with both (at 13/8 and 7/4}, followed by the Irish trio of Fil D’Or, James Du Berlais and Jungle Boogie.

Pretty similar prices all round in truth, which was no surprise.

This race could cut up a bit though, as the Paul Nicholls pair of Tahmuras and Solo have other options this week, and Colonel Harry, Fil D’Or and Jungle Boogie are in early-closers in the next fortnight.

It sounds as if Iroko is being aimed for the Grand National and his mark wasn’t affected by his ½ length second to Trelawne at Haydock, a race he probably should and would have won had Jonjo O’Neill Jr tracked him closer to the pace.

If the Irish do turn up (and the ground may put some off) and he wins this, his Aintree mark is likely to be rise though, so I imagine connections will be on decs-tracker duty on Thursday morning.

Jungle Boogie looks too big at 8/1 but is he running?

A messy race to leave alone ante-post, though I probably wouldn’t want to be laying King George entry Jungle Boogie at anywhere near the 8s he is with one firm if he came over.

His Gold Cup sixth is probably the best form on offer here, but the handicapper actually has Topham runner-up James Du Berlais (best at 9/2] 1lb higher.

2.05pm Haydock – 16/1 Jack’s Parrott could be an interesting one in the likely conditions

5-DAY PACE MAP: Bowtogreatness, Cruz Control, Egbert?, Frenchy Du Large?, Gellino Bello?, Ilikedwayurthinkin, Percussion?, Regal Blue?, Supervisor

There are 18 in the Tommy Whittle and little wonder ante-post betting (and bookmakers) often gets a bad name these days.

When you see one bookmaking outfit (three firms) bet [3/1], [4/1], [9/2], [5/1] and [7/1] the top five in the betting in an 18-runner race it is time to say “no”.

It is not as if there are loads of double-entries in here, either.

In fact, there are just two – Bowtogreatness and Credo – while Gellino Bello is in the Welsh National on December 27.

If that Wednesday rain lands in full then we are probably looking for heavy ground grinders here, so the 16s about 5yo Jacks Parrot looked okay, though the stable also have Good Work in here (the latter is currently 9lb out of the weights, however).

Testing ground and a 3m1f+ handicap chase at Haydock, did you say?

Why, Venetia has Frenchy Du Large and Supervisor in here, priced up at 7s and 20s best, respectively.

The latter will be 4lb out of the handicap if Remastered runs, though.

2.25pm Ascot – 7/2 The Wallpark set to stake his claim in Grade 1 company

5-DAY PACE MAP: Blueking D’Oroux, Botox Has

There are a healthy enough 12 entries in the Long Walk Hurdle, and the first firm up made recent Newbury winner Strong Leader their [5/2] favourite, closely followed by The Wallpark at [7/2], and 6s or bigger the rest.

You can now get 7s bar the top two (that being Crambo) if you shop around,

The interesting one is undoubtedly The Wallpark – and perhaps merely because JP McManus has bought him privately since we last saw him winning a Pertemps qualifier off 145 on good ground at Cheltenham in October.

He poured it on late there – after hitting 11.5 in running when seemingly up against it turning in – eventually coming home a dominant winner from a seasoned, solid handicapper in Gowel Road.

Up to 152 now, new connections seem keen to see whether this highly progressive 6yo (who started his winning run off 129 at Kilbeggan in July) can cut it in Grade 1 company.

To be honest, the gap between a decent handicapper and a Grade 1 winner is not a great deal when it comes to staying hurdlers.

Indeed, Crambo won this race last season when rated a mere 142.

I have come to loathe the obsession many have with viewing every race and performance in the prism and context of the Cheltenham Festival – it is so tiresome – but, to be fair, you can see anyone with a horse with Stayers’ Hurdle possibilities would want to chance their arm.

Take out Teahupoo and the staying hurdling division is as threadbare as it is possible to be, as a glance at Oddschecker will confirm.

It is 12s bar last year’s winner, which brings in the aforementioned Strong Leader (rated 158, and nought from four at Cheltenham) with 18s or bigger the rest.

Whatever wins this will probably be a single-digit second favourite for March, so the 33s for The Wallpark will probably be nibbled at beforehand, though of course he does also have the option of the Pertemps final.

Old Mother Hubbard stuff maybe, and I appreciate that would tempt talented staying chasers to come back to the hurdling code as the campaign develops (they have already made noises about Ga Law in this regard).

Apologies for mentioning the Cheltenham Festival, as we should be concentrating on the Grade 1 in hand.

It wouldn’t surprise me if all 12 stood their ground here, as none of the dozen have alternative entries this week and, at the moment, only Hiddenvalley Lake (including in novices’ chases) and The Wallpark have other options in Ireland over the Christmas.

The Marmite horse, Langer Dan, is actually the form horse in here (2lb higher than Strong Leader) but the fact he is 20s indicates this is probably  another occasion where we won’t see his best until another day.

Oh yes, he’s a spring horse, isn’t he.

Yawn.

2.40pm Haydock – 10/1 Kelya Wood looks too big, if you can get on

5-DAY PACE MAP: Authodidacte, Bluey, Fromheretoeternity, Kelya Wood, Parisian Fashion, Walkadina

There are 13 in the Listed mares’ novices’ hurdle and, as with Ascot’s Graduation Chase, not many have priced this up.

Lingfield winner Holloway Queen is the [6/4] favourite with one firm – [7/4] with the other mob to go up on the race – but I thought the 10s about Kelya Wood looked far more attractive.

Granted, she is 6s elsewhere and the 10s may only be available to a select few – see Oddschecker – but she was clearly very impressive when making all by 10 lengths at Uttoxeter in a first-time hood.

I thought that was a pretty strong race for the class of race, and the time was decent, too.

The runner-up was beaten at [4/6] at Southwell on Monday but she ran well all the same, and the 10s is just glaringly too big, surely?

Her pedigree suggests the step up to 2m3f will be no problem whatsoever, and she looks the best ante-post price of the week at 10s, for all I have no idea if she is an intended runner.

The problem is what is the point of putting her up at 10s, if she is only available at that price with one firm, who many won’t be able to get on with.

3.00pm Ascot – 5/2 Victtorino will probably be that price on the day

5-DAY PACE MAP: Threeunderthrufive , Trelawne, Two For Gold, Tahmuras, Bowtogreatness, Young Buster.

On Sunday, there were 22 in this 100k 3m handicap chase, with Victorrino the [3/1] favourite to follow up his win in this race last season.

There are now just 12 in the contest after Monday’s confirmation stage.

Victorrino is only 1lb higher than when winning this race by ¾ length last year, from a next-time-out winner who has gone up 12lb since, so he has a glaringly obvious chance here.

Granted, he ran a bit of a curious race in the Coral Gold Cup last time, looking likely to be pulled up at one stage, but he fairly charged home to finish third.

He does have that kind of disinterested run-style though – held up, makes a few mistakes, gets a bit detached before consenting to finish with a rattle – and we know this course and distance on decent ground is ideal for him.

Of course, he has an excellent chance but he will probably be his current price of [9/4] on the day. Especially as every book bar one cut from [5/2] on Monday afternoon.

I doubt he can get much lower, unless this cuts up (which it may, see Trelawne below). He will probably be 4s after two fences in running given his usual run-style (for example he doubled in price before winning this race last season).

5/1 Trelawne a likely NR?

I don’t have any issue with the betting, which makes the 5s pokes The Changing Man and Trelawne his main rivals, though the latter must be viewed as a probable non-runner on the likely ground (unless the forecast worsens).

He has never run on ground officially better than soft, although the only time Timeform had him running on good to soft he finished an excellent third to Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning at Cheltenham last December.

The Changing Man went up 5lb for his recent Rehearsal Chase second but he is still fairly handicapped, while the 20s in a place (generally 16s and 14s) about Flegmatik is maybe a bit too punchy from an each-way perspective now he has dropped to his lowest mark since February 2022.

It is just a matter of when the trigger is pulled.

Or whether the trigger is even there to be pulled given three decidedly lack-lustre recent efforts.

3.35pm Ascot – 4/1 Be Aware and Dynart Enous vying for favouritism

5-DAY PACE MAP: Salver, Steel Ally, Kihavah, Our Champ?, Tritonic?, Impero, Secret Squirrel

On Sunday, there were 34 in this 125k 2m handicap hurdle, with Be Aware the [9/2] favourite to give the stable their first win in this race since Mohaayed took this valuable contest in 2018.

Mohaayed took this after running in the Greatwood Hurdle and Be Aware follows the same path, having finished second to Burdett Road at Cheltenham last month.

The Greatwood Hurdle is usually the best trial for this race, with the likes of Luccia in 2023 and Tritonic in 2021 winning this after running there.

Be Aware now trades at a top price of 4s alongside Dysart Enos.

There are now just 15 after Monday’s confirmation stage, with the Christmas Hurdle-bound Burdett Road one of the decliners.

Be Aware is still on course for Saturday though and he has as good a chance as the betting suggests, even though he went up 7lb for sandwiching Burdett Road and Dysart Enos (also in here, and 3lb better for 3 lengths with the Dan Skelton horse) in the Greatwood, with Go Dante back in ninth.

There was some ridiculous hype/talk about Dynart Enos going into that race and she actually ran a lot better than I thought she would.

To be honest, I don’t have a strong view on this race at the moment, especially as you will get an extra place with most bookmakers after the final field is known and probably similar prices at the very least.

Pick your battles when betting ante-post, and viewing from the sidelines is often the best strategy. And that is what I am doing this week.

You have to be honest about these things.

GOING/WEATHER FOR SATURDAY’S ITV RACES – updated 8.10am Wednesday

ASCOT (two-day meeting)

Going Good, good to soft in places (2mm overnight)

Going stick reading – Chase: 6.0 Hurdle: 6.4

Weather: Pretty dry other than 4.5mm Wednesday; light showers otherwise (though BHA site says “total rainfall of 13 to 20mm is currently predicted to Friday”).

HAYDOCK

Going: Good to soft

Going stick reading: 5.5 (8.30am Sunday)

Weather: 16mm Wednesday; 1.3mm Thursday; 2,7mm Friday; 11mm Saturday (Yellow wind warning in place on Wednesday)

DOUBLE ENTRIES (done before weekend Irish entries)

1.50pm Ascot: Tahmuras, Solo

NB: Colonel Harry is in a 100k early closer on Jan 1; Fil D’or is in early closer on Dec 27; Jungle Boogie is in King George on Dec 26

2.05pm Haydock: Bowtogreatness, Credo

NB: Gellino Bello is in Welsh National on Dec 27

2.25pm Ascot: NONE

NB: Hiddenvalley Lake is in a few races over Christmas; The Wallpark is in a Grade 1 on Dec 28

2.40pm Haydock: NONE

3.00pm Ascot: Tahmuras, Bowtogreatness

NB: Trelawne is in Welsh National on Dec 27; Hartur d’Arc is in early closer on Dec 27

3.35pm Ascot: Black Hawk Eagle

NB: Kihavah is in early closer on Jan 1