TONY CALVIN: 8/1 chance still well worth backing in the Irish Champion Stakes

There are two ways are looking at Aidan O’Brien’s often numerical dominance of big races.

Some think it is unhealthy and, furthermore, gives him and his horses an unfair tactical advantage when it comes to making the pace and allowing certain runners easy access up the inner, for example.

The most obvious plus is that some Group 1 fields would be farcically small without him – including Saturday’s St Leger and Irish Champion Stakes – so be careful what you wish for.

I’ll have a look at the Irish races at the end of this piece, but I’ll start with the St Leger.

3.40pm Doncaster – 6/1 and 16/1 pokes against the field maybe

The race scraping seven runners may be great news for Worldpool (it is their optimal minimum field size, if that makes sense) but it obviously isn’t for fixed-odds each way punters, though two firms are offering three places, and that takes some betting shine off the race.

And it was a tricky punting heat, anyway.

There is a fair bit of guesswork when it comes to the O’Brien trio – most obviously the Goodwood winner Jan Brueghel – but I’d marginally prefer Grosvenor Square of his trio, as he could easily set off in front and not come back to the field.

Granted, he did in the Curragh Cup in July, but he only got reeled in by the talented Tower Of London in the dying throes of the race (Gavin Ryan, who rode him there, gets the ride again here), but not many horses win Flat races by 20 lengths like he did last time, even if the runner-up was only rated 78.

To add some balance, he did hump the subsequent Chester winner Vauban in both of those races.

O’Brien didn’t see the need to confirm his usual pacemaker Euphoric for this, as it isn’t hard to see Grosvenor Square getting it easy on the front end – I can’t see the likes of the supplemented You Got To Me wanting to get in with an early fight with him here – and the guaranteed stayer lasting home.

The 6s about him (in two places) is probably the best value in an admittedly well-established market.

If you want one at a bigger price – and only two places in the main scuppers an each-way bet on 80s poke Wild Waves – then Owen Burrows’ Deira Mile is the obvious option at 16s.

He is the lowest-rated in here other than Wild Waves (that one is on a very lofty rating of 95) but not by a great deal – there is clearly no form stand-out in here – and the Derby fourth probably is another marginally overpriced one.

You would have liked to have seen him win his Listed race at Windsor last time but that wasn’t a bad race for its grade and he did shape like a stayer there, and at Epsom.

The first-time blinkers could help I guess, but who knows – the cheekpieces did the trick for Burrows’ Nakheel in the Park Hill Stakes here on Thursday – and his trainer’s record (2 from 17) with this angle is only average.

I probably won’t have a bet of any note, but Grosvenor Square and Deira Mile’s at 6s and 16s respectively would be two against the field if you wanted a modest interest.

In fact, if I can access those prices, I will.

1.50pm Doncaster – 7/1 Bay City Roller could maintain unbeaten status

And the 2yo races just keep coming. And we are also treated to a juvenile 1m maiden later on in the card.

Just the six runners for the Group 2 Champagne Stakes, and thankfully O’Brien has propped up the race with Monumental and Aftermath, though they are the two outsiders (they were available at 12s and 16s respectively on Thursday) and it can’t be often that happens with Ballydoyle runners. Clearly nonsense, fleeting, prices though.

Course winners Chancellor and Wolf Of Badenoch head the betting alongside impressive Newmarket winner Righthere Rightnow, but I thought [7/1] chance Bay City Roller could maybe get his head in front.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not having a bet in the race, but it would maybe be unwise to underestimate the merit of his Chelmsford win under a 7lb penalty last time.

He gave his odds-on backers a real fright before prevailing that day – he traded at over [4/1] in running – but the Amo-owned, runner-up could be very useful.

It’s not a punting race for me, though.

2.25pm Doncaster – 25/1 Born To Rock could be primed to run well

Let’s get one thing out of the way.

Any of the 22 runners could win this 5f143yd sprint handicap, so I am inclined to look away from the obvious here, in price terms at least, for all I can see Albasheer going very close. His general price of 10s (12s in one spot) is nothing flash in this depth of race.

The most interesting one is probably 33s chance Rizg in first-time cheekpieces.

Now, the new headgear and the change of stables (from Roger Varian to James Owen) will certainly need to work the oracle – and you can easily see this horse going off at three figures on the exchanges should the vibes be negative – but the hood could well help this very keen sort and he is the pick of the weights on his best form.

And that would be a close fourth in Listed company at Newbury in May 2022, after which he was rated 102. He is down to 90 now.

You do need to be a very forgiving soul to excuse him his most recent start at Ascot though.

I’m not going that left-field then.

I have decided not to tip (or bet) in the race, as it simply too open but my final short-list of three were Born To Rock, Rumstar and Vintage Clarets.

The first-named opened up at 25s in three places on Thursday (still there in one place) which looked very fair to me, without being bet-enducing (especially as 20s and 18s is a more representative market price).

She looked a very smart prospect after bolting up on her debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam in May 2023 but it is accurate to say she failed to kick on from there, a [66/1] sixth in the Nell Gwyn notwithstanding.

To be fair to her former trainer, the horse must have had plenty of issues, as she only had five runs before leaving the yard 15 months later, but she shaped very well on her debut for George Scott here last month.

She probably wasn’t ideally positioned on the far side that day, but she only went down by ½ length and the winner was only just beaten in a three-way photo next time off a 4lb higher mark next time (and has since gone up another 2lb).

That suggests the lightly-raced Born To Rock could still be well treated here off a 2lb higher mark. She may lack the robustness for a race of this nature though, and if she is a delicate soul who knows if she will recoil from that run. And she did look to have a pretty hard race there.

This really is the kind of race in which it is pretty easy to make a cogent case for all 22, so I’ll pass and try to find something more solid.

3.00pm Doncaster – 15/2 Poet Master the one to beat if on a going day

I didn’t have an exhaustive look at the Saturday ante-post markets this week, but I did clock that one bookmaker group were keen to side against Poet Master and went [14/1].

That seemed a crazy price about the officially the best horse in the race, even with his 3lb penalty, but he is here now and I am happy to side with him at around half the ante-post price.

He is [15/2] in a couple of places, but 7s is fine, too.

It is obviously a little bit worrying that he has thrown in a couple of stinkers in his career – well, they were perhaps not as bad as that sounds – but he has won the other five and he really was very impressive when winning the Group 2 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh.

That earned him a rating of 117, but unfortunately also a 3lb penalty here.

However, if he reproduces the form of that 3 ¾ length defeat of Lord Massusus in Ireland last time – and the runner-up was only just touched off in Group company at Leopardstown next time, and runs in the 2.15pm at Leopardstown on Saturday if you want a late form clue  – then I think Kinross, the [9/4] favourite, will have to be close to his best to beat him.

Ideally, I’d like the safety net of an each-way bet but, given those two disappointments, I’ll play win-only.

Any 6s or bigger would be fine.

2.05pm Chester – Market has the favourites fully covered

Chester is heavy, soft in places, after they copped 39mm of rain between Tuesday and Thursday.

Connections declared on that ground on Thursday morning, but I think it is fair to assume we could get non-runners.

I won’t take up too much of your time here as I think the weather has dictated that this will be between La Yakel and Al Qareem, and the market has them fully covered, even at their best odds of [7/4] and [5/2].

The more representative prices about that pair are [6/4] and 2s.

2.40pm Chester – The price has sadly gone on 7/1 Tashkhan

I knew my joy at seeing Tashkhan priced up at [14/1] and [12/1] early on Thursday would be short -lived.

Well, those prices couldn’t possibly last 24 hours, anyway.

Those odds-compilers presumably didn’t look at the Chester going update earlier that day, as no way should the mud-lover been put in at double-figures.

He is now a top-priced at 7s (in just the one place and that won’t last long), and as short as 5s, so the old enthusiasm has waned somewhat.

Correction. Disappeared.

There are glaring negatives. Getting chinned 90 lengths – yes, 90 – last time out is a rather obvious one, and his earlier outings at York and Newcastle were hardly the stuff of legend.

And let’s not forget he is running off a mark of 108 here, so it is not as if the handicapper has taken a kindly view of his poor recent performances.

A 6yo getting dropped just 3lb for three performances that resulted in an aggregate beaten distance of 132 lengths is not generous.

Now, it is easy to make a counter claim and accentuate the positives, given he is 1lb lower than when a length third in the Cesarewitch last October, he is a course winner (he beat Emiyn in this race last year – although it was much earlier in month, if similarly-sponsored), and he has a great record on soft or deeper ground. And the stable is in fair nick.

But everything is about price, and even at 7s all the juice has been squeezed dry.

I actually prefer his main market rivals Emiyn and Vera Verto at their current prices, so I’ll sit this one out and have a sulk if Brian Ellison’s 6yo wins.

Oh, I should say Tashkhan wears a first-time visor. See below for the trainer’s record with this option.

Leopardstown thoughts – 8/1 Ghostwriter still the call despite shortening price

Aidan O’Brien has at least two runners in the six of the first seven races at Leopardstown – he has Ylang Ylang in the other, which we will come to in a moment – which underlines what we said earlier in the piece.

Some may say the numbers are a necessary evil, but they are certainly necessary.

The Irish Champion Stakes at 3.25pm is evidence of that, as he has half of the field, though the mantle of favouritism lies with Economics at a best-priced [11/8]. I can take him or leave him at that price.

Mind you, it would probably be more of a leave after he drew stall eight of eight, with Ballydoyle runners in 4,5,6 and 7….

When I mentioned team tactics above, it is not hard to see a friends and family scenario developing here, with Hans Andersen leading, Los Angeles sitting second, with Luxembourg and Auguste Rodin in close attendance. And Economics pushed wide.

Luxembourg, beaten ½ length by Auguste Rodin in this race last year and a Group 1 winner two starts ago, looked a very big 14s chance on Thursday, though that seeming generosity is in no small part due to his poor Ascot run last time and the possibly disconcerting application of cheekpieces for the first time at the age of five.

But, as ridiculous as it sounds for a four-time Group 1 winner, you sense that he was ridden very much for Auguste Rodin last time, and will it be the same here?

Seamie Heffernan certainly didn’t throw the kitchen sink at him in this race last season when he knew it was either him or Ryan Moore winning the race.

I’ll back him as a saver, but my main bet in the race is Ghostwriter at a generally available [8/1].

Now, one of my (many) faults is walking away after missing the fancy prices, when I should be focusing on the current odds.

Concentrate on where the price is, and where it is going, rather than where it has been.

So, while all the prices from 12s to 9s disappeared very early on Friday morning, I am very happy with the 8s.

I think what we are dealing with here is an improving 3yo, just 2lb shy of Economics on official ratings, who is still underestimated in the market.

The form of his third in the Eclipse was much better than it appeared at the time and, in spite of that, he was dismissed in the market at [33/1] for the Juddmonte.

But he ran another screamer there to finish third to City Of Troy and Calandagan, with Bluestocking nearly 4 lengths away in fourth, so little wonder all those double-figure quotes didn’t last.

I think he should be more of a 5s poke, so I am very happy to ignore the past and concentrate on the present.

I am worried about the tactics of the race, and Clive Cox could certainly do with getting one over the line after a few near-misses, but there are plenty of positives about this fast-improving colt.

Elsewhere on the card, I thought Poker Face was a fair price at a general 9s in the 1m Group 2 race at 2.15pm, and likewise Euphoric at [17/2] in the 4pm now he is presumably allowed to race on his own merits,

I think the layers may have a chance of getting the front two beat in the Group 1 Matron Stakes at 2.50pm, and Ylang Ylang may be the one to provide it.

It is just a question of whether [6/1] is big enough, as she has already been trimmed more a Love Island candidate’s bush. And that is just the men.

Actually, that 6s is only available in one place and 5s is a truer price.

She was beaten a length in the Guineas and connections went to the Oaks confident they had the winner, but she came back a very sore filly indeed, with a muscle tear down from her hips to her ribcage.

That sounds rather painful, so little wonder the kid gloves were out on her return over 1m here this time.

Her backers that day were probably not too chuffed but it was probably just what the vet ordered after what happened to her at Epsom, and it is fair to say we can expect significant improvement here.

It will be needed, as she will probably need to progress 20lb on that effort to see off Porta Fortuna, but you suspect this is D-Day for the filly.

She was O’Brien’s only entry at the four-day stage, when he presumably could have had a fair few, so she will be locked and loaded here, and I’d say they will look to ride her more aggressively and prominently here.

Indeed, I found this quote from the beginning of the month: “The plan is to run Ylang Ylang in the Matron and the next day she’ll be different. We’ll ride her more positively and forward.”

However, I suppose Fallen Angel, and maybe Wendla, could be problematical there. I think the value has pretty much gone out of her price now at 5s,

Sorry for the long read, but it’s a packed Saturday and it deserved the full treatment. And I am just about to look at the handicaps in Ireland, too.

Good luck.

 

BETS

Poet Master at [15/2] win-only in 3.00pm at Doncaster. Available in two places, but 6s and bigger elsewhere is acceptable.

Ghostwriter at [8/1] win-only in 3.25pm at Leopardstown. Available in eight places, including with AKBets.

 

GOING AND WEATHER (updated 8.20am Saturday)

 

DONCASTER

Going:  Round course: Good, good to soft in places; Straight course: Good

Going stick: 6.7 at 7.45am on Saturday

Weather:  Dry and chilly

 

CHESTER

Going:   Soft, good to soft in places

Going stick: 6.8 at 7am Saturday

Weather:  Had 39mm Tuesday-Thursday (19mm on Thursday alone); light showers now, if any

 

LEOPARDSTOWN

Going: Good

Weather: maybe lights showers (1-2mm) late afternoon, but nothing substantial currently forecast

 

BALLOTED OUT (money back for ante-post punters)

2.25pm Doncaster: Trefor, Almarada Prince, Emperor Spirit, Secret Guest, Hyperfocus, Venture Capital, Archduke Ferdinand, Trilby, Thankuappreciate

 

SUPPLEMENTED (for 50k)

3.40pm Doncaster: You Got To Me

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

James Owen, cheekpieces – Rizg, 2.25pm Doncaster, 2-12 (since 2024)

Owen Burrows, blinkers – Deira Mile, 3.40pm Doncaster, 2-17 (2016)

Brian Ellison, visor – Tashkhan, 2.40pm Chester, 6-65 (2009)

Selected Irish headgear stats for the big races

William Haggas cheekpieces 28-184 (2016)

Adrian Murray blinkers 0-33 (2009)

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces 7-81 (2016)

Jessie Harrington visor 4-53 (2009)

Jessie Harrington cheekpieces 33-262 (2016)

Joseph O’Brien cheekpieces 18-160 (2016)

 

PACE MAPS (ITV races – Leopardstown not on the box):

1.50pm Doncaster:   Bay City Roller, Chancellor, Righthere Rightnow

2.25pm Doncaster: Apollo One (9), Get It (18), Hiya Maite (19), Manila Scouse (3); plenty of prominent racers, too

3.00pm Doncaster: Pogo, Popmaster?, Al Shabab Storm, Lead Artist

3.40pm Doncaster:  Grosvenor Square, You Got To Me? (made it at Lingfield but not since)

2.05pm Chester: Al Qareem, Enemy?,

2.40pm Chester:  Solent Gateway, Tashkhan?, Shanroe?, Roberto Escobarr?, Emiyn?, Vera Verto?, Mr Escobar?

 

TRAINERFORM:

Excellent: Seb Spencer (four from six of late), Roy Bowring (just three runners), Ralph Beckett (upgraded from good to excellent after a cracking Friday)

Good: Andrew Balding, William Haggas (probably more fair for him), Aidan O’Brien, Hugo Palmer,  John and Thady Gosden (maybe more fair, but fighting back), Mick Appleby (very good), George Scott, Jonathan Portman, James Evans (only three runners), William Knight, Rod Millman, Bryan Smart, David O’Meara, David Menuisier (very good), Brian Ellison, Donald McCain (very good; another 7-1 winner on Friday), Willie Mullins, Robert Cowell, Adrian McGuinness, Archie Watson

Fair:  Karl Burke (heading towards moderate), Ed Walker (moderate alert), Ian Williams, Jim Goldie (winner on Wednesday, and 18-1 winner Faylaq on Friday), Richard Spencer (another winner on Friday, mind you), Charalambous/Clutterbuck (only two runners so probably more of “not enough info”), George Boughey (going moderate quickly), George Baker, Jamie Osborne, James Owen (though arguably more moderate), Declan Carroll (though no winners), Tim Easterby, Richard Hannon, Owen Burrows (winners on Thursday and Friday), John Nallen (only four runners, so probably don’t know), Gavin Cromwell (12-1 winner on Friday), John and Sean Quinn, Craig Lidster (needs winners, though), Sam England, Marco Botti (borderline moderate), Charles Hills (needs winners but horses running better), Clive Cox (few near misses but could do with a winner)

Moderate: Kevin Ryan (though an 18-1 winner on Thursday lifted the gloom), Richard Fahey (in strike rate terms, but a few running well obviously given the number of runners) Karl Thornton (only two runners, though)