By Tony Calvin - 8 February 2025
We have had 5mm at both ITV tracks, with a bit more to come, and the going stick readings at Newbury (albeit it is verti-drained, whatever that means) suggest it could be even deeper than the official soft, good to soft in places.
The readings were 4.0 on Thursday morning and they are now 3.6.
Thanks to Merlyn Edwards, on Blue Sky, for the following explanation of how verti-draining affects the ground.
“Verti draining is a funny old thing, soft ground horses love it as they get the dig they need, although good ground horses also go well on it as there is enough “bounce” (for want of a better word), but on the clock it often rides like good ground, weird.”
It is now soft at Warwick, from good to soft, soft in places.
You feel sorry for tracks and sponsors to get such disappointing turn-outs for what should be a high-profile Saturday – let’s not sugar-coat this, it is pretty poor – and Sir Gino coming out on Friday morning (see the Nicky Henderson update in full below) underlines what a hard sport this is to market in advance.
His absence has undeniably taken away a lot from Newbury’s card.
There are only two ITV races there with more than seven runners, and Warwick’s ITV races number four, six and six at the moment.
Be aware non-runners mean there are also changing each-way terms in the 1.15pm and 4.10pm Newbury, as well as the 3.48pm at Warwick.
I wouldn’t get carried away with early market moves for limited money – it’s tip of the iceberg stuff at this stage – but I am obviously happy with my position on Kruger Park.
I fear Up For Parol and I managed to back that one at 6s each way, four places, this morning. Not to much, but enough to ensure I comfortably win on the race if he delivers.
If neither of the above finish in the top four, it’ll be a rather poor start to the day.
L’eau du Sud has hardened a touch into 1/4.
A pretty poor renewal of the Denman Chase got a whole lot more unattractive when Le Patron came at 6.55am because of the going – he ranged from 9/2 to 11/2 – bringing this race down to seven runners.
Accordingly to the Oddschecker grid, four firms are still offering three places, a fifth the odds.
Gala Marceau opened up at [6/4] with two firms – effectively the same bookmaking outfit – but she is now into [8/11] and a general [4/6] in the early betting.
When the serious cash arrives near the off, we will know more.
JPR One has been the one for early money. He was 10s in a few spots on Friday afternoon, but he was nibbled late on – he was not 10s overnight – and he is now [11/2] best.
Nothing much has changed if you take Rule 4s into account, though Le Milos is into [7/4] and there have been nibbles for Whistleinthedark.
I am on a big current drifter on Washington, no doubt because of the 5mm overnight and those going stick readings (let’s hope you are right, Merlyn).
He has drifted from 10s to 16s, including with AK Bets.
I’d be concerned about the ground, there is no getting away from that, but I’ve gone in again win-only at 20s+ on the exchange.
Too big to ignore.
The market has been pretty static (Givemefive is a non-runner but he was an outsider) , though Beat The Bat has been a fair early mover into 11s (and as low as 9s). He was as big as 28s and 25s on Friday.
Check out the stable form of the Harry Fry stable though (see below).
Josh The Boss has been another shortener of note, from 25s and 22s yesterday into 14/1.
The market could look a lot different come 3.34pm, though.
Bookmakers had two different ante-post favourites for this on Monday despite Keable (as low as 4s) and Shanagh Bob (9/2] having alternative options.
They were not confirmed on Thursday, and nor were seven others, including another ante-post market leader Bective Abbey (around an 11-2 poke), and 12s chance Colour On Canvas.
I just re-iterate; steer clear of horses with double-entries at the start of the week. You may miss the odd winner, but you’ll avoid far more cold blood, non-runners.
A couple of trainer observations.
I know she doesn’t have that many horses, but Rebecca Curtis has only had 16 runners since the start of December, so I don’t know what is going on there.
We do know that her Haiti Couleurs is in good nick, as he is going for a hat-trick here after successes at Aintree in November and Cheltenham in December.
Despite going up 10lb for that brace of victories, he strikes me as a well handicapped horse off 135 still, which is possibly why they are keeping his chase mark in cotton wool for the National Hunt Chase at the Festival (his target, apparently, but the weights and entries aren’t out yet – which, reminds me, just how are these races actually priced up ante-post and how can anyone bet on them?) and putting him back over hurdles here in the meantime.
With that in mind, I can leave him alone, as I can another market leader, Magical King, for another reason.
Namely, the form of the Stuart Edmunds’ yard. See the “Trainer In Focus” section below.
I thought this was a very tricky race but Kruger Park opened up at 9s in a place on Thursday morning, and that interested me.
He is 8s in one place, and [15/2] now.
That’s my idea of the best bet of the day.
He went up 2lb for finishing third at Uttoxeter last time but that looks strong form in the context of this race, as the winner is now rated 6lb higher after a close second next time, the second went into that contest on a hat-trick and the fourth has scored twice since (albeit over fences), and his chase mark has increased by 15lb.
And you can argue he should have won at Uttoxeter, as it was a case of premature e-jockulation there, with Freddie Gingell (who keeps the ride here) going for home too early in the straight and getting picked up again late on (hit 1.32 in running).
Factor in that the stable runners were badly needing it on his previous start at Newton Abbot in October, and he is one from one around here last March (to be fair, he was sent for home some way out that day and saw it out very well), and Kruger Park looks a highly tempting each way bet.
Of the market leaders, I fear Up For Parol most (and if I could get that one at 6s, four places – I can’t – I’d back him, too).
UPDATE: I managed to back him on those terms (see update above).
Kruger Park is 8s, four places, in one spot, so take that if you can, but he is [15/2] in two places on those each way terms, so that’s the bet. 7s is fine.
The rain that is now forecast will be no harm to his chance whatsoever, and I can maybe see him going off favourite (though, as I always say, second-guessing markets these days is fraught with danger).
No Sir Gino, or Casa No Mento, so just the four for the Kingmaker.
I would fully expect L’Eau du Sud to justify odds of [2/7] here, even if Rubaud was a better hurdler than him and gets 5lb from him.
The problem is poor ole Rubaud (4s second favourite, with 33s Tedley and 50s Riskintheground) had a baptism of fire on his debut over fences against Sir Gino and Ballyburn at Kempton and took a tumble at the last (he was so far behind that fall was out of shot on the replay, so I’ve no idea how bad it was).
Not an ideal start to chasing life, anyway.
And L’Eau du Sud is the [14/1] third favourite for the Arkle – Rubaud isn’t entered at Cheltenham – so it really will be a shock if he gets chinned here.
But the fences are there to be jumped, as Rubaud found out.
All eight have stood their ground but Fugitif is also in at Warwick. However, this is stated as his first preference, so hopefully each way punters will get three places.
I don’t particularly fancy anything, if truth be told.
I know he is a bit of a twicer and Freddie Gingell can’t claim his 3lb, but Hitman looks a fair each way proposition at [11/2].
A winner here, he has also finished third in a Game Spirit, and second in this race in the last two years, and I thought he ran a huge race against the well-handicapped Terresita at Ascot last time.
Bravemansgame has become too disappointing for me at [9/4], o Djelo is probably feared most at 4s but, whisper it quietly, Hitman actually looks the safest, and best, betting conveyance here, each way, at [11/2] in five places.
If all eight go.
UPDATE: They don’t…..
The course will be delighted with the six runners, as we only lost the 116-rated Molto Bene at the overnight stage.
However, this race still makes no interest from a betting point of view.
Gala Marceau opened at [6/4] in a couple of spots on Thursday – she is now best at [11/8] – and this three-time Grade 1 winner and 2023 Triumph Hurdle runner-up is clearly the one to beat at her best (especially as she is unpenalized here),
But we haven’t seen her since chasing home Lossiemouth in May 2024 and only the Willie Mullins yard know how straight she is for this.
Pass.
Djelo is the only no-show (or at least he was until 9.59am on Friday), preferring to take in the eminently more winnable Denman Chase 35 minutes earlier, and all eyes will be on Sir Gino here.
Given he takes on the best of the rest of the UK’s 2m chasers here, Jonbon aside obviously – and I appreciate they don’t set anything approaching that one’s 171 level – he faces a really stiff task here on just his second start over fences.
You’d imagine Matata (officially rated the equal of him at these weights), and maybe Edwardstone, will look to get him out of his comfort zone early here and I can fully see the laying case for him at the general [4/9], if you can replicate that price on the exchange (the 1/2 about him was taken early on Thursday).
Actually, he is [1.44] to lay in the early market.
However, he looked to have all the suave and swagger of an A-list film star when beating Ballyburn at Kempton on his fencing bow, and Nicky Henderson has successfully trodden this path with Sprinter Sacre and Altior as novices.
It’s a ballsy move by the trainer, as both of those stars had more chasing experience coming into this race than Sir Gino, but you do sense this horse could be a class apart.
The devil on your left shoulder says he is a lay at [1.44].
The angel on your right says don’t be so bloody stupid.
UPDATE: No need to listen to either as Sir Gino has been declared a NR as at 9.59am on Friday morning (sore).
“We have some news to share on Sir Gino.
“Regrettably Sir Gino will be unable to run at Newbury tomorrow as he has sustained a small wound to the inside of his near hind leg which is sore, it must have occurred during routine exercise yesterday and although he is less sore this morning than last night I am afraid it will not be completely cleared by Saturday.
“We anticipate that he will be back to normal by the beginning of next week so the timing is very unfortunate. This will leave us with a dilemma where to go in order to get another run before the Arkle. The Pendle at Kempton would be an option although it is over 2 ½ which is not ideal.
“There are very few alternatives except for a newly created 2m novice at Bangor on 26th February but that is getting horribly close to Cheltenham.”
Fugitif (Saturday) and Straw Fan Jack (in at Kempton on Friday, which passed their inspection) are entered elsewhere this week, so keep an eye out there.
The early betting on Thursday had Fugitif ranging between [9/4] and [11/4] for this, but it sounds like he is heading for Newbury, so there’ll be a chunky Rule 4.
It looks like both will not run here – this is Fugitif’s second preference – which will bring the field down to seven runners.
In truth, seven, eight or nine runners, I’ve no betting interest in this veterans’ chase whatsoever.
On Thursday, I thought there was some logic to backing Straw Fan Jack each way (he ranges from 10s to 16s now – some firms shortening him up from 20s) but presumably he runs at Kempton now.
He did.
We lost five at the overnight stage, and there were some very surprising no-shows among them, at least according to the market.
Tellherthename was probably the biggest market-mover into 6s, from double that price, during the week, but he hasn’t been confirmed, and nor has Hansard, 14s to 10s, and as low as 8s, in the ante-post line.
The others not to confirm were Spirits Bay, Wreckless Eric and Bo Zenith.
A fair few ante-post punters are starting Saturday on the back foot then.
I don’t fancy many in this.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s a fair renewal – we have the last two winners of this in here in the shape of Iberico Lord and Aucunrisque, and they are available at 18s and 33s – and no nobody is going to be in the least bit surprised if Secret Squirrel (best at 4s) or the sexy Joyeuse (6s) win this.
But I narrowed it down to three, which became two as Navajo Indy is now a touch too short at 6s (generally [11/2] and 5s).
I actually hope he bolts up, as I backed him at 16s for this in late January – though that is hardly boasting as he was still 14s on Monday morning, but he ranges from 5s to 6s now – and that is eminently resistible (the 7s in three places was snapped up on Thursday).
He has a good claim after running much better than the bare form suggests at Windsor last time (it is fair to assume the tight turns didn’t suit), and of course he has three excellent track efforts to his name (form figures of 121, with a Gerry Feilden win among them), but his price is now no more than fair.
And arguably too short. He may well drift.
And the unexpected first-time cheekpieces are an unknown.
Could be good, could be bad (see trainer’s record below).
The more I looked afresh at this race on Thursday, the more I warmed to Washington.
Unfortunately, the 12s in seven places went by Thursday afternoon (as did the 11s), and he is now a general 10s.
It is very trying waiting until Friday to publish.
His only start at Newbury saw him pulled up, but that was back in November 2022 (he has changed stables twice since), and his Fairyhouse win at the start of December is surely being underestimated in the market, for all he was 16s earlier in the week and he is now 12s.
He travelled powerfully throughout and absolutely danced in there by 5 lengths, despite fluffing the last, and the runner-up Eniskerry has won his only start since and is now 8b higher (he is actually 10lb higher still over fences).
I accept the third and fourth have done nothing for the form since, but I think he will be competitive here off a 12lb higher mark.
The Leopardstown race was a long-term plan it seems, and so is this by all accounts (the owners, the Syders and Burkes, are Newbury big-wigs, I think).
He looks an improved model from the one that Murphy trained but, that said, he did finish a good third of 16, off just a 6lb lower mark, for him at the Grand National meeting at Aintree in 2022 (he was also a smart bumper horse).
He could well make it three from three for Harry Derham, having had just one start (over fences) for Paul Nicholls last season.
The shortening price is annoying but he is 10s, five places, with 16 bookmakers (the form offering six go 9s), and that’s good enough still. The less rain that falls the better his chance.
I mentioned in my ante-post piece earlier in the week that I wouldn’t like to lay Minella Missile at 40s, and I’d still say the same at the general 25s.
Minella Missile went from opening in single figures to going off at a Betfair SP of 16.65 (actually traded in the 20s pre-race) on his return from a very lengthy lay-off over 3m at Windsor last month, and he ran like that race was a stepping stone to something bigger.
And they don’t get much bigger, prize-wise, than this 155k handicap.
Sure, you have to worry about whether he will have the speed for this – and he may get pulled out on the day if the forecast rain doesn’t land – but we are into money-back if non-runner, territory now (he could well be a non-runner).
He travelled strongly throughout at Windsor, when not really presented with the kitchen sink at any stage, and he also went through the race smoothly when beating Captain Teague in a 2m5f Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November 2023, shaping like a horse with gears as much as stamina.
He is a player at the general 25s, but I’ll be backing him win-only on the exchange (currently 34.0 there as this is published).
In fact, I already have done.
Feel free to follow me in if you have a live account.
Washington at [10/1] each way, five places, in 3.35pm at Newbury. Available in 16 places.
(I have also backed Minella Missile win-only, and will do so with Hitman each-way at 11/2 is appealing if all eight go)
Going – Soft, good to soft in places ((Entire track verti-drained from 16th January & completed ahead of the rain)
Going stick readings – Chase: 3.6; Hurdle: 3.6 (as at 6am Saturday; was 4.0 on both on Thursday 6.15am)
Weather: 1.9mm Saturday
Saturday morning course update: “5mm rain yesterday & overnight. (66mm since 23rd January). Forecast: Mostly cloudy with some mist and light rain at times (max +5C).”
Rails: Hurdles: Inside (fresh ground, not raced on this season) Chase: full width (inside last raced on December 28th) Split bends in place (all fresh ground)
Going – Soft
Going stick reading – 5.5 (Saturday 7.30am)
Weather: 1.9mm Saturday
Saturday morning course update: “2.5mm fell Tuesday afternoon. 5mm fell overnight. Chance of a light shower late morning, 1mm, otherwise overcast with highs of 5c.”
Rails: We will be running on the INNER hurdle track.
Harry Derham blinkers 0-1 (since 2024) – Ballygriffincottage, 1.50pm Newbury
Tom Symonds cheekpieces 3-27 (2016) – Navajo Indy, 3.35pm Newbury (some other stats sites suggest he is better with pieces than that, though)
Henry Daly cheekpieces 4-26 (2017) – Hillcrest, 4,10pm Newbury
Paul Nicholls cheekpieces 22-84 (2016) – Toss Of A Coin, 4.10pm Newbury
Dan Skelton cheekpieces 17-111 (2016) – West Balboa, 2.40pm Warwick
Olly Murphy -cheekpieces 13-88 (2017) – Grandads Cottage, 3,15pm Warwick
Greenall and Guerriero visor 2-24 (2022) – Herbiers, 3.48pm Warwick
3.35pm Newbury: Secret Squirrel (1lb)
3.35pm Newbury: Beat The Bat (1lb), Givemefive and Go Dante (both 2lb)
1.50pm Newbury: Haiti Couleurs (prom), Up For Parol?, Magical King (prom), Tiny Tetley, Kruger Park (prom), Ivaldi, The Four Sixes
2.05pm Warwick: L’Eau du Sud?, Rubaud?
2.25pm Newbury: Bravemansgame, Hitman (prom), Ga Law (prom), Eldorado Allen, Sam Brown (prom)
2.40pm Warwick: You Wear It Well, Gala Marceau (prom), Dameofthecotswolds (prom), Sunday Soldier (prom)
3pm Newbury: Matata?, Edwardstone?
3.15pm Warwick: Le Milos, Editeur Du Gite, Quel Destin
3.35pm Newbury: Navajo Indy?, Mirabad, Our Champ (prom), Aucunrisque (prom), Josh The Boss, King William Rufus
Edmunds is a trainer I rate but he is going through a very lean spell.
Admittedly, he hasn’t had that many recent runners but none have performed well and he is without a success for over a month now.
His last winner was a 13/8 poke on New Year’s Day, in fact.
Since January 23rd, he has had six horses go off between 11-4 and 8-1 and the best they have achieved is a couple of them being beaten 11 lengths.
He was in great form last February (8 from 21), so he will be hoping for more of the same shortly.
Very shortly.
On the plus side – his 16/1 bumper horse ran okay on Thursday, and his Kempton runner on Friday was never really put into the race (he wasn’t the only one, stewards), so I wouldn’t be harsh there.
Excellent: Venetia Williams (another winner on Thursday, and V is really bouncing back now after a quiet spell in January, with another three winners at 12s, 11s and 6s on Friday).
Good: Jamie Snowden, Willie Mullins, Killahena and McPherson, Richard Hobson (very small sample), Hobbs and White, Robert Walford, Sam Thomas (one from two), Olly Murphy (double on Thursday, and a winner on Friday)
Fair (check out those with winners on Friday): Dan Skelton, Nicky Henderson, Nigel Twiston-Davies (20-1 winner on Thursday), Paul Nicholls (more modest for him, though he is maybe getting back into the swing), Tom Symonds (nearer good), Joe Tizzard (winner on Friday), Ben Pauling (winner on Friday), Gary and Josh Moore, Anthony Honeyball, Laura Morgan, Evan Williams, Alan King, Harry Derham (getting going again hopefully), Chris Gordon (double on Friday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Hughie Morrison (small sample, but another winner on Friday), Newland and Insole (no winners)
Moderate: Stuart Edmunds
Don’t know: Sheila Lewis, Rebecca Curtis, Harry Fry (just four recent runners, no winners and and 2-5 and 10-11 losers – concerning maybe)
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