TONY CALVIN: 8/1 chance and other betting options to consider on Saturday. Go well.

UPDATE 9.23am Saturday  – Inothewayurthinkin a serious 33s to 8s move in Savills Chase

It is all change in the Savills Chase, with Galopin Des Champs now best at [11/10] with AKBets, with Fact To File available at [11/5].

Inothewayurthinkin has been the big mover in the race, though.

He was 33s in seven places yesterday morning but his price now ranges from 7s to  8s.

As you can see below, he was actually 7s with one firm without the two favourites yesterday, so this is a pretty serious move.

One word of caution – the money that would have been traded so far would be minimal.

AKBets are trading this race very aggressively though (see Oddschecker).

Beacon Edge remains 33s (sixteen firms) in the Savills Hurdle and I have had a very small bet on him, with eight still in the race (as it stands).

Another very quiet betting day for me.

Good luck, all.

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Off for a few 

I have been working all over Christmas, but Ganley’s finally beckoned for a get-together at midday on Friday – all work and no play makes me an even duller boy – so this is very much a preliminary look at Saturday’s racing.

I’ve spent a few hours on it this morning though, doing all the stats and info guff (they take up far too much of my life as I do everything manually day to day, but I am such a hero), so here is my initial take.

I imagine you can expect an update on Saturday morning, though this is comprehensive enough.

And a night sleeping on initial copy is often a good thing, even if hungover….

1.45pm Newbury – Ralph deserves a change of luck

A competitive 0-135 handicap hurdle and when I was doing the trainerform stats I saw that Alastair Ralph – he is the trainer of Welsh Charger in here – had two horses beaten in photos at 18s and 11-2 on Boxing Day.

That must have been particularly agonising as he has been going through a lean spell of late.

Anyway, his Welsh Charger, an 11s poke, has a decent chance in here after a good win at Wetherby last time.

It’s a very competitive race though, as I have said, and Jipcot could be a lurker at 14s  after a wind op, and the excellent Jennie Candlish has got her hands on Lucky One.

The fact that he is ridden by the inexperienced 7lb claimer Roisin Leech (presumably a daughter or relative of the previous trainer) maybe suggests this is a tune-up for another day, though who knows?

2.00pm Leopardstown – 33/1 Beacon Edge too big if all eight go

The dangerous dead-eight for each-way punters yet again – I don’t know if the bookies have a non-runner department in Ireland – so this is a race I am happy to sleep on overnight.

With the top-rated horse in this Grade 1 2m7f80yd hurdle only on a mark of 159, it goes to show what a shallow pool this division is and how open it is to shocks.

If the eight places stand up, then the 33s about Beacon Edge would interest me.

The fact that the cheekpieces are back on is a curious one though, as he is nought from five in them.

2.20pm Newbury – 8/1 Inch House could be ready to return to form

It must be doubtful that Cruz Control will run here, given he was pulled up in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day.

The two that initially caught my eye in this were the Nicholls pair of Brave Kingdom and Inch House, both 8s pokes.

Bryony Frost excels from the front, so she will probably look to make all on the former here – she did exactly that on this horse at Plumpton last season – though he will have plenty of attention on the front end, looking at the pace map.

Harry Cobden gets on Inch House for the first time and this one is very well handicapped on the form he showed for his previous handler, notably a win over an extended 2m6f at this track last December.

He also went on to finish a good second to Stumptown over an extended 3m1f in heavy ground at Cheltenham and he is 5lb lower here.

That makes him handicapped to win but the problem is he ran woefully on his debut for Paul Nicholls here last month in a race he likes to target.

But maybe the first-time cheekpieces (Nicholls has a good record with these – see below) and a longer trip will see him to better effect here.

The 8s looks very fair to me, even with the form doubt.

The 8s is only available in one spot though, so the [15/2] in nine places is suggested, win-only.

And to only small stakes given that run last at Newbury last month.

For what it is worth, this is what Nicholls says about the horse in his Betfair column. It may not be overly-gushing but it is vaguely positive.

Ish.

“He’s new to us this season and needed his first run this at Newbury where he was eventually pulled up. He has come on plenty for the outing and I’m expecting a much better show from Inch House with a pair of cheekpieces to help sharpen him up.”

2.35pm Leopardstown – 7/1 Inothewayurthinkin without the big two appeals

Another high-profile set-to, with Galopin Des Champs taking on Fact To File. There is only a gnat’s hampton between them in the betting, with [11/8] playing [6/4] respectively.

The problem with betting on this race is twofold.

One, you can’t really argue with that assessment.

Two, you can’t really see them both getting chinned.

The one bet is possibly Inothewayurthinkin each way at 33s (we have nine runners, so we can take one withdrawal – he is that price with AKBets) but the better punts could be in the Without Favourite (s) markets when they appear later.

In fact, one mob are already up and they go 7s Inothewayurthinkin without Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File.

That looks pretty good to me, as I imagine connections would settle for third in a heartbeat, and a confidence-boosting run over a more suitable trip with better jumping involved.

He jumping will always be a drawback in this grade but I can see him picking up the place pieces here, if not the jackpot.

A nod-to-the-future ride would probably be handsome.

2.55pm Newbury – 9/2 Bill Joyce underestimated perhaps

The betting suggests it is heavy odds-on that either The New Lion or Regent’s Stroll win this. They are priced at tops [13/8] and [2/1] respectively.

Whether this will have any bearing on the dreaded Cheltenham markets is debatable – again, we should appreciate the here and now for this Grade 1 – but we clearly have a whole host of exciting youngsters in this.

It wouldn’t be my kind of betting race but Bill Joyce is probably overpriced at [9/2] as he arguably has the best form and time credentials after his Sandown win last time.

That is only available with one firm though, as is the generosity of three places for each-way punters in this seven-runner race.

3.10pm Leicester – 12/1 Champagnesuperover is the interesting one here

If this was a weekday meeting, I would not give this 0-125 handicap chase a first look, let alone a second.

However, what I thought was fascinating – well, half-interesting – was that all eight have made the running in some of their most recent starts.

That doesn’t necessarily translate to a burn-up, as jockeys and trainers can read as well – we saw that with the punted Leader In The Park at Kempton on Boxing Day – but it is something to note, all the same.

Golden Whisky at 16s and 14s looks the overpriced one perhaps but Sean Bowen getting back on board Champagnesuperover means that 12s poke will be of plenty of interest.

His claiming jockey got pulled in after a run at Bangor two starts ago and the horse unseated at the first last time, but he is a very well handicapped horse on his 2022 form and Bowen’s presence on board suggests the pedal will be to the floor here.

I can see him trading in single figures very easily, for all this race is very tricky. He is 11s with AKBets.

3.35pm Newbury – 10/3 Inthewaterside could get an uncontested lead

Plenty dismiss trainerform, but I imagine that is why you can probably get as big as 18s about John McConnell’s Moon D’Orange here.

McConnell is a streaky trainer and he is having a very lean spell on the winner front of late – he runs a couple of outsiders on Friday – but betting is about risk and reward, so his horse may actually be worth chancing.

Either way, the important thing is to flag poor runs of form to readers and not ignore it.

I don’t have a betting interest myself but I’d agree that Inthewaterside should probably be favourite here, and [10/3] is possibly fair enough.

He could get an uncontested lead on his chasing debut, if they want it – though the dangerous Sea Invasion could have something to say about that –  and it sounds as if he is a big unit who will be suited by fences.

However, we have no idea of how he has schooled, or if he can jump.

So maybe the [10/3] isn’t that great, after all

BET

Inch House at [15/2] in 2.20pm at Newbury. Available in nine places (8s in one place, so take that if you can).

Plenty of other suggestions above (see 2.35pm Leopardstown, for example)

GOING/STICK READINGS/WEATHER/RAIL MOVEMENTS – updated 8.23am Saturday

NEWBURY

Going: Good to soft

Going stick readings – Chase: 3.9; Hurdle 3.5 (seem very low for good to soft ground)

Weather:  Dry (maybe odd light showers)

Rails: HURDLES = inside/ centre CHASE = full width Split bends in place (FRESH RUNNING LINE ON ALL BENDS, not raced on this season).

• 12:05pm: Race distance is now +31y to 2m 100y
• 12:37pm: Race distance is now +31y to 2m 100y
• 1:12pm: Race distance is now +16y to 2m 108y
• 1:45pm: Race distance is now +43y to 2m 4f 161y
• 2:20pm: Race distance is now +23y to 3m 2f 17y
• 2:55pm: Race distance is now +43y to 2m 4f 161y
• 3:35pm: Race distance is now +23y to 2m 6f 116y

LEICESTER

Going : Soft, good to soft in places (heavy on the Flat course crossings)

Going stick readings – 3.4 (6.30am Saturday)

Weather: Dry (maybe some light showers)

LEOPARDSTOWN

GOING: Good to Yielding, Yielding in places (Chase) & Yielding, Good to Yielding in places (Hurdle).

Other Details: Saturday forecast is for high cloud and occasional bright spells. Increased south westerly breeze through Sunday bringing further sunny spells. Daytime temperatures of around 10C. Further selective watering on the Chase track ahead of Day 3. All days – Chase Track set to the innermost Chase line. Day 3 Hurdles – Rail set 5 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Day 4 Hurdles – Rail set to the innermost Hurdle line. All distances as advertised.

BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER

3.35pm Newbury: Zertakt (3lb)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Nicky Henderson hood 21-73 (since 2013), good record, that  – Break My Soul, 12.05pm Newbury

Nicky Henderson blinkers 4-57 (2009) – Blairgowrie, 1.45pm Newbury

Gary and Josh Moore pieces 0-14 (2024); Gary 7-87 (2016) – Spirit D’Aunou, 1,45pm Newbury

Paul Nicholls cheekpieces 22-81 (2016) – Inch House, 2.20pm Newbury

Paul Nolan blinkers 5-89 (2009) – Sandor Clegane, 2.00pm Leopardstown

PACE MAPS (manually done; ITV races)

1.45pm Newbury: Rightsotom, Welsh Charger, Go To War, Getalead (prom), Blairgowrie

2.00pm Leopardstown: Beacon Edge, Hewick, Home By The Lee?, Noble Yeats?, Rocky’s Diamond, Sandor Clegane?

2.20pm Newbury: Brave Kingdom, Hymac, Holy Joe Smoke, Poppa Poutine (prom)

2.35pm Leopardstown: Conflated, Galopin Des Champs?, Grangeclare West,

2.55pm Newbury: Bill Joyce (prom), Electric Mason, It’s Hard To Know, Regent’s Stroll, Wendigo (prom)

3.10pm Leicester: Sheldon, Invincible Nao, High Treason, William Cody, Awaythelad, Golden Whisky, Hunter Legend, Champagnesuperpover (all eight have made the running in recent starts, if not all)

3,35pm Newbury: Inthewaterside, Sea Invasion

TRAINERFORM (ITV races)

Good: Olly Murphy, Alan King, Gavin Cromwell, Jennie Candlish, Joseph O’Brien (excellent), Paul Nolan (double on Boxing Day)

Fair:  Paul Nicholls, Ben Pauling (excellent double on Boxing Day) , Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Anthony Honeyball, , Nicky Henderson (very good Boxing Day obviously and stable look to be swinging into good form), Nigel Twiston-Davies (borderline good), Venetia Williams (moderate for her), Tom Lacey, Dan Skelton (poor for him), Harry Fry, Gary and Josh Moore, Jamie Snowdon, Nigel Hawke, Gordon Elliott, Joe Tizzard, Alastair Ralph (two horses beaten in photos at 18s and 11-2 on Boxing Day), Toby Lawes, Chris Gordon, Anthony Charlton, Evan Williams, Henry De Bromhead, Declan Queally, Willie Mullins (arguably moderate for him)

Moderate:  John McConnell (some have run okay but big winless run – he is often a streaky trainer), Seamus Mullins, Emmet Mullins (small sample),

Don’t know: Jedd O’Keeffe, Kevin Pickard, Pam Sly, Miss Tara Lee Coogan, Mouse Morris (just three runners)