TONY CALVIN: 66/1 and 28/1 chances added to the Cambridgeshire party

It made sense to hold this column back until later this week for three main reasons.

The first was to see what the weather has done (they have had 33mm in the last 24 hours, and a little bit more could be on its way through Friday), and the second was to give me as much time as possible for picking up early non-runners for Saturday.

I do enough re-writes at the best of times.

At the time of publishing, Newmarket had a colossal 27 withdrawals for Friday’s racing, and we have already had seven through for Saturday at HQ.

The third was to see if second-reserve, and my ante-post 33s win-only poke, Poniros got a run in the Cambridgeshire. The deadline for him getting in the race was 1pm on Friday.

The Horsewatchers’ Martin Dixon made an excellent early to call to take out their Penzance early on Friday morning due to the ground turning heavy, allowing Ebt’s Guard a run, and thankfully Coeur D’Or, the mount of Ryan Moore, followed suit at 11.30am.

Game on with Poniros, then. I hope this heavy ground winner doesn’t come out on account of the ground….

1.15pm Newmarket – Non-runner scuppers any interest

I didn’t have a strong opinion in this nursery but Beauty Nation opened up at 16s in a couple of places on Thursday afternoon, and a general 14s, and I thought that was very fair.

I then proceeded to write eight paragraphs about his chance before clocking that he was taken out of the race on account of the going at 10.02am on Friday morning.

The delete button came into play, and there endeth my interest.

Probably not a bad thing in truth.

1.30pm Haydock – 12/1 Navagio my fourth and final selection in the Haydock opener

I’ll readily admit to changing my mind at least twice in this race. Oh, and by the way, it is pretty much heavy here, too.

At the five-day stage Raadobarg looked considerably overpriced at 16s bearing in mind there was a maximum field of just 10 in this race (I am still not sure why it is set so low).

But the market has fully caught up with him here, even at a top-priced [13/2] (generally 5s, though).

Initially, I thought I had a big fun fact here about Raadobarg running in a first-time visor.

I found it hard to believe but Raceform Interactive said this is the first time Boughey has made such a move on one of his horses. So I checked with Proform, and they revealed he is actually two from three (11/1 and 9/2 winners), with the other a runner-up.

Interestingly, they all ran in a tongue-tie too (perhaps that confused RI), as does Raadobarg.

The Flying Finn was the next one of my radar at 20s, as he will love the bottomless ground.

And then you had to be drawn to Skipper on account of his tempting profile and the fact Tom Clover is the hottest trainer in the country at the moment.

And then I spotted Navagio.

The problem with him is that his trainer also confirmed him for the Cambridgeshire, so I decided to back him for both races on Thursday afternoon, and take the non-runner, money-back option wherever that lay.

He was a huge 100s and 80s for Newmarket at the time, even if he was 3lb wrong there. Even the current 66s at 50s for the Cambridgeshire looks plenty big enough. More about that shortly.

He can race off his correct mark of 88 here at Haydock, in what is clearly a fair more winnable race, so connections have a difficult decision to make, I guess.

So I sat and waited for them to reveal their first preference. But it didn’t materialize before I decided to publish this piece.

Not ideal.

The key to this horse is soft ground, and there are plenty of other positives, not least that handicap mark.

He made his debut for the stable off a mark of 96 in the Lincoln in March and met all sorts of trouble en route to staying on well to finish a good third there, but he hasn’t cut much ice in four subsequent starts.

However, he did shape better when fifth off a break at Ascot last time, and it is very interesting that James Horton has re-applied the cheekpieces he wore for his former handler in Ireland.

Indeed, he won in a first-time tongue-tie/cheekpieces combination at Limerick last June (gagged up), and he won on his final start over an extended 1m1f at Gowran Park (again on soft) before joining Horton.

Indeed, that Gowran performance saw him beating much higher-rated rivals, given them weight, so he could have been raised to more than 96 for that.

Off 88 here, he is weighted to do some damage. And Mr Haydock, Richard Kingscote, who rode him at Donny, is back on board here.

He is 12s in a place, and 11s across the board (including with AKBets), so I will be backing him win-only.

He may well run in the Cambridgeshire, but it is obviously money-back here if that is the case.

1.50pm Newmarket – 9/2 Puppet Master could play with these on the ground

Aidan O’Brien has used his juvenile entries sparingly this weekend. He had 20 in three Newmarket 2yo races on Saturday but runs only four of them, while he confirmed only two of eight possibles for the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh.

He actually had 10 in the Royal Lodge at the five-day stage but he relies on just Puppet Master, who opened his account when winning a Galway maiden on soft ground last month.

He opened up as big as 5s, which surprised me a touch (it was taken), as he is obviously proven in the ground and the Galway form was given a boost (though it has had its knocks) when the third Tennessee Stud won next time and takes his chance in the Beresford Stakes later on in the day.

I wouldn’t be that surprised if he actually went off favourite.

Not one bit, in fact.

When I say the Galway form is mixed, that would be a touch harsh. The runner-up may have finished third next time but he met two decent sorts in that Punchestown maiden.

And the form of Puppet Master’s debut second (when ridden by a 7lb claimer) was franked when the winner went on take a Deauville Listed race on his following outing.

Of course, Luther and Wimbledon Hawkeye have shown a better level of form coming into this race – Luther’s only defeat has come at the hands of a subsequent Grade 1 winner, and Wimbledon Hawkeye’s Acomb Stakes second probably makes him the standard-setter in this – but they have no experience of this ground and Puppet Master has a lot of upside, too.

I won’t get involved, as it remains a deep race despite the nine Ballydoyle overnight withdrawals – I have a lot of time for Royal Playwright and Angelo Buonarotti, too – but I do think Puppet Master is the best trading angle at [9/2].

Mind you, that is only available in one place now and the betting could get very messy here if we one of two high-profile non-runners, and Rule 4s, as may be likely.

2.25pm Newmarket – Juice squeezed right out of Daylight’s price

It is clearly heavy odds-on that either of the unbeaten Babouche and Lake Victoria win their second Group 1 here, but Daylight was criminally underestimated in the early betting.

She was actually available at [15/2] on Thursday, and still [13/2] and 6s on Friday morning.

But then her price collapsed, probably due to very little money (and the rain), and she is only best at [4/1] now.

I know it is set to be dry from hereon in weather wise, but it is not drying ground, and only the two French horses have even raced on soft ground.

The [4/1] is probably still a fair enough price, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if one of the two favourites were pulled out, so you are then looking at hefty Rule 4s and no each-way option.

I’ll leave her alone, then. But she has a pretty big form chance.

Babouche and Lake Victoria are rated the same on 112 after their respective Group 1 successes in the Phoenix Stakes and the Moyglare – the latter would be my preference of the two – but Daylight is only 2lb shy of them on official figures.

An impressive winner at Deauville in July (she won on her debut on ground Timeform called soft), she returned to that track to contest the Morny last time and ran respectably to finish third.

But the suspicion is she is better than she showed there. Switched to the inside from her outside draw, she had to wait for a run, but finished to decent effect once getting some, err, daylight, close home.

You couldn’t say she was unlucky but you’d have like to have seen what she could have done if getting a clear sight a furlong sooner.

She is a big player, even if the big two run, but the price has gone.

2.35pm Curragh – No opinion but well done ITV and Haydock

Well done ITV for liaising with Haydock and finding a space to get the Group 2 Beresford Stakes on the box.

It wouldn’t be my kind of betting race though, so I won’t bore you any further.

3.00pm Newmarket – 10/11 Whistlejacket hard to beat on the ground

If not quite a stranglehold on this race, O’Brien is three up with four to play (I have no idea why I used a golfing analogy, but I wrote it without thinking, so I’ll go with it) by running both Whistlejacket and Ides Of March here.

Ryan Moore has ridden Whistlejacket in all his starts to date, so there is no surprise he is on the Group 1 winner here, and the soft ground scorer is clearly the form pick on his Morny win last time.

It’ll take a fair one to improve past him if he runs his race.

His progressive stablemate Ides Of March is the most likely candidate, and it sounds like this has been plan ever since his maiden win at the Curragh last month.

Whether connections would have been anticipating testing ground is another matter though, and the horse has never raced on anything slower than good.

In fact, Whistlejacket is the only horse to have raced on soft ground, let alone won on it. I don’t play at his price, but the [10/11] about him looks more than justified.

3.15pm Haydock – 5/1 Aberama Gold could get back in the winning groove

The opening 8s about Aberama Gold didn’t last long on Thursday, and you can see why.

Okay, he is on a fair losing run but the handicapper has more than acknowledged that, as he has tumbled 15lb down the weights this year.

He is down from 100 to a mere 85.

And it is not as if he hasn’t run the occasional cracker along the way this season, as his thirds at Newmarket in April (beaten a length off 97 in an 18-runner race) and at Ayr (beaten ¾ length by the hugely progressive Alfa Kellenic off 90) underline.

This is also the first time he has had his preferred ground since beating Glorious Angel off 96 over 5f on heavy ground at Doncaster last October.

The switch from his usual visor to blinkers is maybe a strange move (he has worn them twice before) but that shouldn’t deter you if fancy him.

The problem is, like Daylight, his price has ebbed away. The 6s and [11/2] both disappeared on Friday morning, and the 5s is only available in two spots now.

A very reluctant pass but I think he is just about the most likely winner.

3.40pm Newmarket – 66/1 Navagio and 28/1 Majestic are the fresh bets

Judging from Thursday’s racing, I imagine those drawn high will be happiest in the Cambridgeshire, as that golden highway on the near rail seems to have resurfaced.

It remains to be seen if that bias is still in existence on Friday after another shedload of rain – if any horses actually run – but I remember Majestic Dawn bolting up in a high-draw race in this in 2020 (there were 27 runners and the first six home were 25-27-24-16-29-23) and maybe we will see a similar ballroom blitz down the near side here.

There isn’t actually a great deal of pace in this, though.

Given the conditions, and the going stick reading suggests it is a pretty extreme form of heavy by Newmarket standards, this does look ripe for a shock.

Connections of This Songisforyou certainly didn’t want to see the deluge of the last 24 hours, and main market rival Roi De France is unproven on any ground resembling this – hence their market weakness – so I think you have to look towards the bottom of the market for winning inspiration at a price.

And I come back to Navagio, again.

The juicier prices have clearly gone but he is very much an each-way bet at 66s (in two places) or 50s (three places).

You can pick you own area of battle wherever you can get on.

Go and have a read about what I said about him in the 1.30pm at Haydock, as it obviously all stands true.

The price connections will have to pay if running here is that he is 3lb wrong (this being an early closer) but a strongly-run 1m1f on deep ground will play to his strengths and, even off 91 as opposed 88 at Haydock, he is still well handicapped.

And he has big-field handicap form.

If the Ascot run off a break last time was a stepping stone to this, then it was mission accomplished with some promise, and the stable have bounced back to a bit of form this month, too.

There is 66s out there, six and five places, and that is obviously the premier route. But I’d be happy at 50s, too.

If they have been saving reapplying the cheekpieces for a rainy day, they have certainly got that. The draw in 13 may not be ideal but it is not a deal-breaker.

Even with Poniros getting a run (he is now best at 12s), I am keen to go in two-handed in the day-of-race market.

I can certainly see the case for Under Siege on his early-season form from trap 35, but the ground is presumably a major issue for a horse taken out on good to soft earlier in the season (he has never raced on worse than good according to Timeform, and his dam appeared to hate dig, too).

The market has really latched on to the high-drawn horses but there could be some betting mileage in Majestic at [28/1] each way., from stall 36.

The firm who offer that price are going six places, but the more generally available 25s (including with AKBets) is fine.

He is 1lb wrong here but he is still only 3lb higher than when winning this race in 2022, so I think he is still weighted to give a bold showing.

He hasn’t actually won since taking this race two years ago, so he is a frustrating sort in that regard, but he is very capable handicapper on his day and he simply looks overpriced.

He took this prize in 2022 just a week after finishing in midfield at Newbury, and he has had a similar prep this year, returning from a break at Yarmouth last week.

That was a modest run on paper but presumably it was just a tee-up job for this.

He was fourth in this race last year off the same mark and his two starts on testing ground were solid efforts, most obviously his fourth in the 2023 Lincoln off a 4lb higher mark.

He will do for me.

Good luck this weekend.

 

BETS

Navagio at [11/1] win-only in 1.30pm Haydock (12s in a spot but 11s in 12 places, including with AKBets)

Navagio at [66/1] each way in 3.40pm at Newmarket. Available in two places, but the 50s in seven places is fine)

Majestic at [28/1] each way in 3.40pm Newmarket. Available in one spot, so 25s is the call.

 

ALREADY ADVISED

 

Poniros at [33/1] win-only in Cambridgeshire

 

GOING AND WEATHER

 

NEWMARKET

Going: Heavy

Going stick: 5.2 at 7am on Friday

Weather: Hopefully dry now

 

HAYDOCK

Going – Round: Heavy, soft in places; Straight: Soft, heavy in places

Going stick: 5.1 at 7.15am Friday

Weather:  Hopefully dry now

 

CURRAGH

Going – Straight: Yielding; Round: Good to yielding, yielding in places (had 13mm of rain)

Weather: Light showers, if any

 

BALLOTED OUT (MONEY BACK FOR ANTE-POST PUNTERS)

1.30pm Haydock: Bellarchi, Thunder Roar, Arkhalia Flynn, New Chelsea

3.40pm Newmarket: Siempre Arturo, Zozimus, Magic Memories, Newsreader, Alpha Crucis, Graignes, Maso Bastie, City Of Delight

 

SUPPLEMENTED (for 20k)

 

Defence Minster – 3pm Newmarket

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Karl Burke cheekpieces:  16-182 (from 2016) – Shining Pearl, 1.15pm Newmarket

Ralph Beckett hood:  6-52 (2011) – Royal Equerry, 1.15pm Newmarket

Ed Bethell cheekpieces: 3-33 (2021) – Intrusively, 3pm Newmarket

Charlie Johnston cheekpieces: 1-33 (2023) – Lion Of War, 3.40pm Newmarket

George Boughey visor:  2-3 (and one second) – Raadobarg, 1.15pm Haydock

Aidan O’Brien blinkers 53-323 (2009) – Lambourn, 2.35pm Curragh

 

PACE MAPS (ITV races):

1.15pm Newmarket: Ghost Run, Shining Pearl, Naina (prom), Harmonia (prom)

1.30pm Haydock: Raadobarg?, Flying Finn?

1.50pm Newmarket: Royal Playwright

2.25pm Newmarket: Celandine, Lake Victoria?, Magic Mild, Rayevka?

2.35pm Curragh: Tennessee Stud, Trinity College, Windlord

3.00pm Newmarket: Dash Dizzy, Idea Of March, Intrusively, Whistlejacket

3.15pm Haydock: Silky Wilkie, Jer Batt, Changeofmind, Hyperfocus, Blind Beggar, Never Dark

3.40pm Newmarket (not a lot of pace it seems): Norwalk Havoc, Balmacara, Watcha Matey (prom), Crack Shot (prom), Waiting All Night (prom)

 

TRAINERFORM (not including Friday’s results):

Excellent: Tom Clover, Ralph Beckett, Charlie Appleby, Daniel and Claire Kubler, James Owen

Good: William Haggas, David O’Meara, Harry Charlton, Aidan O’Brien, Clive Cox, Dylan Cunha (maybe more fair), Ger Lyons, F-H Graffard, Emmet Mullins, James Horton, Richard Spencer (maybe more fair), Simon and Ed Crisford, Hamad Al Jehani (two runners; one 16-1 winner)

Fair:  Charlie Johnston, Andrew Balding, Karl Burke (borderline moderate on the whole), George Boughey (three of last four runners have won, so getting good), David Menuisier, John Ryan, David Evans, Eve Johnson Houghton, Amy Murphy, Hugo Palmer, Charlie Fellowes (needs more winners, though), P Cottier, William Knight, Roger Fell and Sean Murray, Mick Appleby, Ian Williams, Ed Bethell, John and Sean Quinn, Jack Channon, Michael O’Callaghan, Gemma Tutty (no winners, though), Gavin Cromwell (big NH winner on Wednesday, obviously), Adrian Keatley, Philip Kirby, Grant Tuer, Roger Varian, John Butler, David and Nicola Barron, Declan Carroll, Tim Easterby, Joseph O’Brien

Moderate: John and Thady Gosden, Jessie Harrington, Ed Walker, Rod Millman, Brian Meehan, Dermot Weld, Iain Jardine, Brian Ellison, George Margarson (not many runners), Patrick Morris

No runners for ages: Ray Craggs