TONY CALVIN: 5/1 chance poised to dispel the myth in the Rockfel

Weather update

The ground is now heavy after 33mm in the past 24 hours.

The racing

There were only 51 entries in Newmarket’s four Friday ITV races at the five-day stage, so the field sizes have actually stood up pretty well, despite only one of those contests attracting eight runners (and that by the skin of its teeth as Francophone was only put in the 2.25pm at the very last minute).

Whether or not that race stays at eight runners is questionable given the rain forecast – you’d fear for the participation of Divina Grace and Mistral Star if it turned soft, for example – but fingers crossed.

The ground at Newmarket is currently good to soft after they got 5mm from Wednesday into Thursday morning – far less than forecast – but a lot more rain is due in the next 24 hours.

The main forecast I use has 22mm landing from midday onwards into tomorrow, but there is a yellow weather rain warning in the area, so we could get even more than that.

It’s a massive factor if you are betting on Friday. It could easily be heavy for the Cambridgeshire.

It is a bit surprising that ITV have not drafted in other races to flesh out their coverage, but perhaps they have some meaty topics to discuss in between the Newmarket contests…

Given the nature of the races, it is obviously not a great betting card on ITV, but it could surprise me on closer inspection, as I always write the intro before studying the cards in depth.

So let’s get stuck in.

1.50pm Newmarket – 12/1 Arisaig may be overpriced despite the doubts

The first thing that struck me about this race was that four of the seven have led in recent starts (see pace map below), so that is a fair consideration if you are punting on this race.

The other is that there is little between the four form horses, especially with the highest-rated of them all, Spiritual, carrying a 3lb penalty for a Sandown Listed race win on soft ground in July.

In short, this is a race I couldn’t get too bullish about, though Arisaig opened up at 12s in a couple of places (one still remains) and I wouldn’t have laid that, even with the obvious concerns.

The first negative is that she is 12lb shy of Guineas sixth Rolica (early 6s taken on that one) on the figures and the third lowest-rated in here, and she has also never raced on anything worse than officially good ground (an assessment that Timeform backs up).

So you are punting in the dark on that score, and her rise up the handicap ranks would appear to have stalled on her last two starts.

However, basically everything that could go wrong did go wrong at Leopardstown last time, and on another day she could well have been battling for second behind the impressive winner Vera’s Secret.

She was shuffled back from stall one at the start and then got little racing room up the straight.

I actually backed her that day, and I didn’t realise just what a bad trip she got, albeit she was beaten just under 6 lengths.

Well, that ignorance would have had a lot to do with my having started to drink before the first in a boozer, and I was a fair few reds in by the time that handicap was run at 5.45pm.

I couldn’t tip her with any confidence given the doubts – I do actually think you are better off waiting to see just how much rain Newmarket gets – but I do think the 12s about her is currently the best bet in the race if you can access that price (8s the general price, so I probably shouldn’t be giving the 12s any air-time).

This has one of those marmite stalking Jamie Spencer rides written all over it, given the pace scenario.

2.25pm Newmarket – 5/2 Time Lock looks a fair assessment of her chance

As I mentioned in the intro, I would definitely fear the dead-eight becoming a sour six or seven, given the rain and the forecast, so that is something for each-way punters to monitor here.

Again, there is a fair bit of pace in here, and she may ideally prefer quicker ground (though she ran well enough on soft in Group 1 company at Ascot in October), but the race could simply revolve about which Time Lock turns up.

The first-time tongue-tie is a potential red flag, but a reproduction of two of her three efforts in 2024 is enough to see her go very close here, while she probably wins this on her 4 1/2-length success in this race on good to firm last year, for all you can pick holes in that form.

Throw in the fact that three of her best efforts have come at this track, and I don’t have any major problem with her price of [5/2] – though that is only available in two spots – especially with her stable ion much better form of late.

However, it is a race I can easily watch without a bet.

3.00pm Newmarket – 5/1 Bubbling’s late confirmation could be the key

Tracking entries is actually very interesting (especially if you are very boring like me), and one thing I noticed in this race on Wednesday morning was that Aidan O’Brien initially only confirmed May Hill fifth Ecstatic for the Rockfel, and then decided to add Bubbling just before the 10am deadline.

Now, unfortunately, I don’t know exactly how to interpret this….

Did Aidan initially not fancy it for her, did he forget, or did he have a late change of heart after seeing the latest weather forecast?

However, what I am reasonably sure of, despite both of the Ballydoyle fillies holding similar form claims – O’Brien had six in here at the five-day stage, including the standard-setter Heavens Gate – is that Bubbling is the better of the pair.

And, perhaps, crucially, Bubbling has winning form on good to soft ground, which may have been the reason for the late entry.

But then I saw Ryan Moore’s name next to Ecstatic on the BHA site around midday on Wednesday (note to bookmakers, keep an eye out there, as some very slow to cotton on) so the doubts crept in.

However, it is a myth that Moore always chooses which O’Brien horse he rides when it is a tight call – some journalists and TV pundits know this but still persist with this narrative (sorry, an even worse word than moist), as Aidan can and does decide on occasions – and maybe that is the case here.

Put it this way, it doesn’t bother me, either way, especially given the timeframe mentioned above.

And perhaps they will only run one anyway, which is not a big price in my book.

Furthermore, the odds are that he probably would have liked to ride the general [11/8] favourite Formal if he had a free hand. And, of course, you are compensated for in the price if you go with the supposed second-string.

Before the jockey news filtered through, two firms (though one bookmaking outfit) had Bubbling at 2s and Ecstatic at 8s. And they were very slow to cotton on thereafter.

It wasn’t long before six firms went 5s about Bubbling (now just three), with some going as low as [11/4] about Ecstatic, who is now a top-priced [7/2].

I remember watching Bubbling run at Leopardstown last time and being very surprised that the presenter and pundit – I am not sure who the latter was but I think Gary O’Brien was hosting – didn’t make more of the luckless passage Bubbling had in the final 2f or so en route to her length third to Chantez in that Listed contest over 7f.

She was pretty much last turning in there, and Moore couldn’t unleash her until the race was over.

In fact, I reckon she may have won with a clear run.

She is not straightforward and played up a bit in the preliminaries as well by all accounts, as well as racing a bit too keenly, but she looks more talented than she was able to show there.

She had previously won very well at Galway on yielding ground and I reckon she is the one to beat here. Her dam was at her best on soft ground, and her brother Wichita finished third in a Dewhurst on soft, though admittedly better on decent ground.

Of course, Bubbling may beat her stablemate – and no way would I lay her at 5s – but she has another five rivals to contend with, none of which can be ruled out and two of which are unbeaten.

The most obvious threat of the five would appear to be Formal, and not only because she has handled fast and soft ground when winning her two starts, so the weather can presumably do what it likes for her.

I am not sure what she beat at Leicester last time but she did it well under a 6lb penalty and it sounds as if Moore was impressed by the very well-bred Cheveley Park filly (by Dubawi out of the stable’s Falmouth Stakes winner Veracious) that day.

It’s the fear of the unknown that bothers me when betting in 2yo races, and I suspect we could get non-runners if it turns soft, as expected.

But I’d still very much favour Bubbling at the prices, and I am happy to tip her to small stakes , win-only, at 5s in three places.

3.35pm Newmarket – 5/1 Task Force just about the pick of the prices

A measure of how tricky this six-runner 1m Group 2 was could be gauged by the fact that the price range of the runners went from [10/3] to just [7/1] early on Wednesday afternoon and that was if you could snaffle the best odds going.

I can waffle on for ages on most races but I really see no point here.

Only 3lb covers the six on official ratings – that’s as close-knit a race as you will see – and I could see no betting angle in either the prices or the pace map.

I did think Task Force was the fairest price at [5/1]   – the 6s and [11/2] was taken on Wednesday afternoon, unfortunately – but nothing more, especially as he has never raced on anything worse than good before (again, Timeform agree here)

The way I am going to play these four ITV races from a betting point of view is to wait in the main, and maybe do an update on here on Friday morning once I know how much rain they have got. I suspect we will get a fair few non-runners.

But I have decided to stick up Bubbling here at 5s, to small stakes.

Good luck.

BETS

Bubbling at [5/1] win-only in 3pm at Newmarket. Available in three places.

GOING AND WEATHER

NEWMARKET

Going: Heavy

Going stick: 5.2 at 7am on Friday

Weather: Largely dry from hereon in

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Clive Cox: hood 6 from 47 since 2011 – Definitive, 3.00pm Newmarket

PACE MAPS (ITV races):

1.50pm Newmarket: Sirona, Spiritual, Noisy Jazz, Fair Point

2.25pm Newmarket: Divina Grace (prominent), Sea Of Roses?, Comic Book, Sinology, Francophone (prom)

3.00pm Newmarket: Duty First

3.35pm Newmarket: Lead Artist (prom), Prague, Poker Face?

TRAINERFORM (not including Thursday’s results):

Excellent: Ralph Beckett

Good: Sir Michael Stoute, William Haggas, James Owen, Hughie Morrison, Harry Charlton, Aidan O’Brien, Clive Cox, Archie Watson, Dylan Cunha, Simon and Ed Crisford

Fair:  Charlie Johnston (two winners on Wednesday), Andrew Balding, Jane Chapple-Hyam (needs more winners, though), Rae Guest, Karl Burke, Jessie Harrington (borderline moderate), David Menuisier

Moderate: John and Thady Gosden (for them), David Simcock, Ed Walker (obviously some are going okay, as you’d expect), Roger Teal