AK Latest, Horse Racing

By Tony Calvin - 24 September 2024

TONY CALVIN: 33/1 chance stands out in Cambridgeshire given the weather forecast

It could easily be soft ground at Newmarket on Saturday, so that brings a 33-1 chance, who stays further, firmly into play. Hopefully, anyway....

You won’t need me to tell you that the country has been a touch moist over the last few days – a word most tend to shy away from these days, for some strange reason – and fast-ground horses need not apply at Haydock and Newmarket on Saturday.

Newmarket was actually good to firm on Sunday morning but I am now working on the basis of soft ground there on Saturday.

Maybe even deeper.

They had 5mm on Monday, and they have an unsettled week in store, so the current description of good, good to soft in places, will surely ease further.

The main weather site I use (which usually presents the worst-case scenario, admittedly) has a relatively dry Tuesday now (though they have already had another 2.6mm today), but 6.3mm landing on Wednesday, 9.6mm on Thursday and 3.5mm on Friday.

Mind you, myweather2.com currently has 14mm landing on Thursday alone. It could easily be heading for soft at a minimum.

Haydock is currently soft after 11mm on Monday (it was soft, good to soft, before that, so it could easily be deeper than advertised) and they have a mixed forecast, too. That looks set to be a combination of soft and heavy ground by the weekend, perhaps.

It is an obvious thing to say but make sure you focus on horses that are likely to run in the probable ground.

Right, on to Saturday’s ante-post races.

It was 14s the field for the Cambridgeshire before the midday confirmation stage on Monday (there were 76 in the race then) and we are now down to a more manageable 53 entries.

There is a maximum field of 35 allowed on the day, so bear that in mind when betting at this stage. A full field may not be probable given the forecast – and see the number of double-entries below – but plenty of horses will be bigger prices on the day.

The first five in the handicap were not confirmed on Monday, so the weights went up 5lb, good news for Zozimus, Magic Memories, Orandi and Newsreader, as they were all out of the handicap (though all bar Newsreader have alternative entries).

The bad news for some ante-post punters is that Real Gain, one of the [14/1] market leaders, was taken out of the race as the trainer said “we’re just not very happy with him, so I can’t run”

Roi De France, 14s in a place on Monday morning, is into 8s and 7s now, even though the Gosdens’ 3yo has never raced on anything other than official good to firm ground, and one spin on the all-weather.

He has the sexy 3yo profile from a stable with a winning pedigree in this race, he was arguably unlucky at Yarmouth last week, and Oisin Murphy is jocked up (I think he goes out with the owner’s daughter) but he isn’t for me, as it stands. He may love more juice, though his dam didn’t and his half-brother Vaguely Royal is better on decent ground.

And if the forecasts for Newmarket are only half-right then that is presumably not good news for Emmet Mullins’ [10/1] second favourite This Songisforyou, as he has disappointed on soft and been a non-runner on soft and heavy ground, for all he has won on ground with a little bit of dig.

Good to soft would be okay, but connections have said the less rain the better for him.

Given the forecast, the recent money for him may be premature, though he was undeniably impressive last time.

Of course, forecasts can change, but we can only deal in the here and now.

There are six horses officially well-in in this closer and they are Liberty Lane and Bopedro (both 3lb) and Roi De France, Mr King, Bennetot and Poniros (all 1lb).

I am personally looking for a horse proven on soft/heavy ground at this stage, who doesn’t have alternative running options this week (again, see the double entries list below).

33/1 Poniros surely overpriced in softening conditions

And Poniros firmly fits the bill. My bill, anyway.

I will preface this by saying that I have no idea if he is an intended runner, and he is currently number 44 in the list for a maximum field of 35.

But I’d be fairly confident he will get in (money back if balloted out, anyway) and surely he is not a 33s poke in here.

He is available in three spots at those odds (two of which are offering five places for each way punters), 28s in a couple and a general 25s, including with AKBets. All prices look acceptable.

A heavy ground winner on his debut, he clearly ran a screamer in the 1m2f London Gold Cup in May, a race in which he finished a 4-length second to King’s Gambit (now rated 116, but running off 93 that day) and that race has worked out pretty well, if perhaps not as well as it usually does.

However, Persica, who finished fourth there off 92, is now rated 112 after winning a Listed race at Ayr on Saturday, so there are two very strong form strands to come from it.

Poniros was underwhelming in his next two starts but he ran much better last time out at Ascot after being gelded, and when tried in a first-time hood. All three of those starts came over 1m4f.

He was beaten 4 lengths at Ascot (on soft ground) but he shaped very well there, so much so that the handicapper appears to have raised him 1lb for it.

Given his Newbury run over 1m2f, a race which showed he didn’t lack pace, I don’t have any problems with him stepping down in trip to 1m1f with plenty of give in the ground.

As I said, I have no idea if he is an intended runner, which is always the problem with ante-post betting – David Egan, who can do 8st 7lb, is already jocked up but that sometimes means nothing – so I will go win-only at 33s or 28s at this stage.

If could be that connections rate him as a better horse on decent ground – his Newbury second came on ground Timeform called good to firm, after all – but the combination of 1m1f and soft ground is surely a punting mix.

I hope so anyway.

If you want to take a risk and get that 33s, five places, then feel free.

It should be also pointed out Godwinson and Under Siege, best at 12s and 16s, are also in at Haydock on Saturday. And five others are down to run on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aidan O’Brien’s mass entries in the juvenile races has, as is usually the case, pretty much killed them stone dead as ante-post betting mediums.

Bookmakers are on a hiding to nothing pricing up races in these circumstances. The first serious money they see (or is attempted to be placed) will be exactly the sort of trade they do not want.

Mind you, an angle may be ignoring the O’Brien horses (quite a few of whom are currently still entered in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh on Saturday, the confirmations for which are out later on Tuesday afternoon).

And a bit of housekeeping here.

When I looked on Monday morning, one firm had The Lion In Winter as their [5/2] favourite for the Royal Lodge but he wasn’t one of the ten O’Brien confirmed for the race.

The entries for this race went from 45 to 18 on Monday, and Luther is now the favourite at a best-priced [3/1].

One firm actually has Wimbledon Hawkeye as the 3s joint-favourite with him, though Luther, whose only defeat in three starts has been at the hands of Woodbine Grade 1 winner New Century, is as short as 2s.

Once again, Luther has never raced on anything slower than good, and the same is true of Wimbledon Hawkeye.

The numbers for the Cheveley Park have gone from 22 to 14 with Fairy Godmother being the high-profile absentee, with O’Brien relying on Lake Victoria as his number one.  The trainer still has five in the race, with Babouche as the [13/8] favourite over [11/4] Lake Victoria.

O’Brien also has five in the Middle Park, including top dog Whistlejacket, best at evens, with Ides Of March second in at [10/3].  Early, loose, indications are that both may run.

The entries here have shrunk to 12 from 25, but general 16s chance Defence Minister has been supplemented for 20k.

Owners Wathnan Racing can afford it, though (they supplemented him for the Mill Reef, but pulled him out on the day due to the heavy ground, a scenario that may easily be replicated here).

In short, the 2yo races are a bit of a mess for ante-post punters, especially with the weather forecasts.

The other ITV race from Newmarket is yet another 2yo race, the 7f fillies’ nursery at 1.15pm. I am very happy to leave that alone until we know the final fields and get a more accurate handle on the weather.

We also have two ITV races from Haydock on Saturday and both have the potential to cut up (see double entries below). Four of the 21 entries are due to run on Wednesday.

I think we are probably looking at heavy ground for Haydock.

Looking at the handicaps, I am happy to leave them until later in the week, but the double-entries below give ante-post punters a possible angle in, especially the 1.30pm (it looks like Haydock have re-ordered the card on Tuesday morning)

Good luck.

 

ANTE-POST BET

 

Poniros at [33/1] or [28/1] win-only in Cambridgeshire at 3.40pm Newmarket on Saturday (general [25/1] acceptable.

 

GOING AND WEATHER – updated 8am Wednesday 

 

NEWMARKET (three-day meeting starting on Thursday)

 

Going: Good, good to soft in places

Going stick: 6.7 as at 9am Wednesday

Weather:  One site has 12mm on Wednesday, 12mm on Thursday and 4.3mm Friday

 

HAYDOCK (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going: Soft, heavy in places after 4mm overnight into Wednesday

Going stick: 5.3 as at 8am Wednesday

Weather: 11mm Wednesday, 8mm Thursday (BHA site says: “Dry and overcast start to Wednesday then rainband approx. 15-20mm Wednesday afternoon throughout the evening into further rain on Thursday morning”)

 

 

DOUBLE-ENTRIES FOR ALL SATURDAY ITV RACES (done before Irish weekend entries are known, the Beresford Stakes on Saturday at the Curragh in particular)

 

1.15pm Newmarket: Creative Lady, Dolce Vitta (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday), Fleetwater (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday), Lily’s Bet, Naina (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday), Queue Dos (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday)

1.30pm Haydock: Arkhalia Flynn, Crack Shot, Dashing Darcey, Empirestateofmind, Flying Finn, Godwinson, Gorak, Hafeet Alain (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday), Havanagreattime, Look Back Smiling, Major Partnership, Mortlake, Navagio, Rhoscolyn (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday), Serene Saraph, Skipper, Thunder Roar, Under Siege, Whiskey Pete

1.50pm Newmarket: Acapulco Bay, Aftermath, Bernard Shaw, Delacroix, Isambard Brunel, Lambourn, Puppet Master, Rock Of Cashel, Tennesee Stud, The Parthenon, Trinity College, Windlord

2.25pm Newmarket: Bubbling, Heavens Gate, Merrily

3.00pm Newmarket: Henri Matisse

3.15pm Haydock: Aberama Gold, Hyperfocus, King Of Stars, Seven Questions, Silky Wilkie, The Fixer, Wen Moon (entered overnight on Thursday at Pontefract), Royal Equerry, Ryka, Sunshine State, Timefall

3.40pm Newmarket: Take Heart, Godwinson, Love De Vega (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday), Navagio, Empirestateofmind, Under Siege, Look Back Smiling, Simply Sondheim, Crack Shot, Great Acclaim, Dashing Darcey, Mythical Guest, Waiting All Night, Siempre Arturo, Zozimus, Magic Memories (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday), Orandi (due to run at Listowel on Tuesday), Alpha Crucis (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday), Graignes due to run at Kempton on Wednesday), City Of Delight

 

P AND L -25.4